wednesday lines and discussion

houston should smack bucks after they loss to wiz. also, let down for bucks after beating spurs SU. hard to have b2b good games through Texas. line is off but i think raps have a chance to win SU, i think they will probably be a dog.

also like OKC to win at home against gstate, just matchup problems for gstate.
 
ORL-CHI
Magic in the last game of a mini trip where they have to go home next vs the heat and go back on the road against the raps, not sure if this is a good spot for the magic.
Of the 14 wins of the bulls, 10 of them came at home, and they are mighty as hell at home.
Not in the business of fading the magic but no interest in this game either

MIL-HOU
Agree with others, Bucks won at san antonio and will likely be blown out against a rockets team who lost at home against the wiz, still thinking of laying the chalk though

GS-OKC
slight advantage for the warriors in my opinion, not interested in laying chalk on the road for GS and the thunder is not on my betting list, pass, want a winner? might as well flip a coin

PHI-LAC
Can lay points on the road with this philly team, waiting for them to get their act together and cant also bet this clipper team. Who needs their post player more? Philly with brand or clips with Zach? o never mind im laying off

NJ-DET
Nets are one of the weirdest teams in the league, winning a shit ton of road games and losing a pile at home, they seem to show up on the road. Pistons are not the same piston team we have known over the past few years, not as high on my list before, need to know status of rip first before I can get a real opinion on the game

DEN-TOR
Raps might have value getting points at home, i just hate that they shoot j's and not take that ball to the rack, hard also betting against a nugget team that's doing well, need to see that line first
 
Roller coaster L5 days or so ....Friday and Saturday just crushed it around 70% on 80 plays , then Sunday didnt do much Sunday but lost a few plays, Monday was okay till the GSW game put down and yesterday was terrible losing like 30 units ......

Today begins the New Year ....

Going to use this scale for all of 2009 . The 4/40 scale. With being the minimum play and 40 being the max play . Essentially think I will be playing increments in $40 and quicker to just drop the zero / last digit ...so 4,8,12,16,20,24,etc...

Over 111.5 GSW 1st Half -110 (8x)
Over 220 GSW -110(12x)

Think the reasoning is obvious as both teams came off under runs recently but starting to get back to their ways ..allowing 48% FG for both Last 5 only should go higher playing eachother . Small concern with both teams being medicore at best from the FT line lately...1st meeting total was 219.5 GSW was minus Steph Jax in that one. Which means Durant might not be scoring so easily again . OKC also has experience a 4th Q scoring drought at times in the past 5 keeping some of their scores lower ...
vs Suns 179 of 212 after 3Qs
vs Was 76 up after 3 Qs and outsocred 28-19 ..

Previous 3 all sound defensive teams @ Det , @ ATL , vs CLE ...
L90-88 @ Det only down 19-17 after 1 Q ...OKC has a habit of alternating high scoring quarters with low ones meaning probably either the starters struggle nad bench plays well or vice versa no consistent flow from both....
Home vs CLE down 82-72 after 3 Qs then again slow 4th Q...

Leans:
OKC +3 : GSW getting CRUSHED on the boards lately ..but hard to play a 1-13 team at +3 so ML probably or pass ....Then DEN and Over , Milw and Over ....

The rest of the card :
1st Quarter Orlando -1.5{4x}
2nd Quarter Chicago +1.5 {4x}
1st Qyarter Under 51 {4x}
1st H Bulls +3 {12x}
1st H Under 102 {8x}
Bulls +6 {4x}
Under 202 {8x}
1st Quarter Nets +2{8x}
1st Half Nets +3.5 {12x}
Nets +6 {8x}
Over 188-120{8x}
Over 91.5 TT NJ -115 {4x}

GL:cheers:
 
12.31 Breakdown : (-110 unless noted)

1st Quarters :
Nets +2 (8x)
Orl -1.5(4x)
Under 51 Orl (4x)

2nd Quarters:
Bulls +1.5 (8x) just added to it

1st Halfs:
Bulls +3 (12x)
Under 102 Chicago (8x)
Nets +3.5 (8x) made this level lower
Over 111.5 GSW (8x)

Full Game :
Over 220 GSW (12x)
Bulls +6 (4x)
Under 202 (8x)
Nets +6 (8x)
Over 188-120 (8x)

Team Totals :
Over 91.5 -115 NJN (4x)


Props - None
3rd or 4th Quarter Plays - None


Leans:
OKC +3 / ML
Denver ML / -1.5
Over Denver 201
Bucks +8
Over Milw 189

Good Luck ..:cheers:
 
Denver -1.5

Kapono and JO will most like be out tonight. They are both game time decisions. So, expect to see alot more Moon, Graham, Humphries and Big Jake.
 
t-dot said:
Denver -1.5

Kapono and JO will most like be out tonight. They are both game time decisions. So, expect to see alot more Moon, Graham, Humphries and Big Jake.
Click to expand...

Thanks bro for the heads up ...Plus coming home after the long road trip which they looked tired the last 6 quarters ....playing Denver ML-125 now..

:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
12.31 Breakdown : (-110 unless noted)

1st Quarters : 2-1 -0.80
Nets +2 (8x)
Orl -1.5(4x)
Under 51 Orl (4x)

2nd Quarters: 0-1 -8.80
Bulls +1.5 (8x) just added to it

1st Halfs: 0-3 -30.80
Bulls +3 (12x)
Under 102 Chicago (8x)
Nets +3.5 (8x) made this level lower
Over 111.5 GSW (8x)

Full Game : 0-4- 28.80
Over 220 GSW (12x)
Bulls +6 (4x)
Under 202 (8x)
Nets +6 (8x)
Over 188-120 (8x)
Nuggets ML -125{12x}

Team Totals : 0-1 -4.60
Over 91.5 -115 NJN (4x)


Props - None
3rd or 4th Quarter Plays - None


Leans:
OKC +3 / ML
Denver ML / -1.5
Over Denver 201
Bucks +8
Over Milw 189

Good Luck ..:cheers:
Click to expand...

Orl cruising wins the 1st Q and sneaks in the Under then continues to get crushed a half and silly total sneaks over by 1 pt ...

Added : Denver ML -125 {12x}
2nd H Bulls -3.5 {8x}:cheers:

2nd H Rundown: 2-1 -1.20
Bulls -3.5 {8x}
Over 91 Det {12x}
NJN +1 {4x}

Ugly start down -75 (or 750 in the real world)..not sure how mch more I add ...
 
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Played some fairly normal stuff including Denver and Houston first half which scares me greatly. Also played GS under 220.5. Total just makes no sense to me. OKC next plays Denver. The last 5 games between those two have been explosions. The lowest one was 217. The highest 2 are so large I am afraid to list them. GS plays Minn. Their last 2 have been high scoring and Minn is defintely moving in an over direction. So GS and OKC. GS was quietly going under. Nelson had given up control of the defense and the tempo and degree of effort on d had gone up a lot. They played the Lakers after the Lakers beat Boston. The Lakers were just going to run around and have fun. Would have taken an act of god for that to stay under. The next game was home against Toronto. Toronto had gone 2-3 in the first 5 games of the road trip and knew they had big trouble coming when they got home and they really wanted to win this game. GS really wanted to not lose at home to this team. Things escalated. Just do not see that here. Teams are 7-3 under last 10. Bavetta is 0-6 under on the 205 and up games and his last 6 games with GS have gone under 3 of which were this year. OKC by the way had zero chance in the Suns game to avoid an over. You take Nash out early the Suns just go to running. That is just what happens and i do not see the Washington game as being much of anything. It was under 200 and OKC was trying to win a game on their last stop of the road trip and Washington was going to win their last home game before the road trip. So exactly why should we assume a score higher for GS and OKC then any played at OKC this year. We should not and we certainly should not be trying to bet over after the total has already gone up 4 points from the start. GL and will be back in 2 days hopefully.
 
Bavetta's stats are so skewed though ...hitting unders by 1 or 1/2 pts...

Recent Games with Golden State

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b width="12%">Date</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="10%">vs.</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="17%">Score</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="10%">Line</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="12%">O/U</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="8%">Mar</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="11%">GS FG</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="11%">Opp FG</TD><TD class=datahl2b width="9%">Reb</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>12/10/08</TD><TD class=datacell>MIL</TD><TD class=datacell>W 119-96 </TD><TD class=datacell>W -1.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 220.0</TD><TD class=datacell>21.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>43/88</TD><TD class=datacell>37/86</TD><TD class=datacell>47-44</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/09/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@SAC</TD><TD class=datacell>L 98-115 </TD><TD class=datacell>L 3</TD><TD class=datacell>U 213.5</TD><TD class=datacell>-14.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>39/95</TD><TD class=datacell>42/88</TD><TD class=datacell>45-50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/01/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@NJ</TD><TD class=datacell>W 105-97 </TD><TD class=datacell>W 4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 205.0</TD><TD class=datacell>12.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>32/76</TD><TD class=datacell>35/83</TD><TD class=datacell>41-45</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


The other refs have high game tendecies .....

90 shots per game and 50% shooting thats 180 points right there ...mix in 12 of 30 from three and 40-50 FT attempts low 220s should be had if they hit the averages.....

The game has to play out like the previous 2 GSW games for certain though if it does not concerned but your points are valid ....
 
All your doing is using common knowledge though ....your not assessing any meaning to why those events occurred . Your simply backing the trends blindly. The 3 games last year where SAC twice with Artest still playing and @ Boston..This year 3 unders by 8.5 pts spread over 3 games 3 , 0.5 and 5 is what they missed by...


key is Durant's play ...GSW is confident now off a couple of wins and looking to play their brand of basketball . Which is the run and gun fast pace . Neither team really can stop anyone ...OKC will play that tempo ..

Matter of possessions and making shots the opportunity will be there IMO....

219.5 last meeting and opens 216.5 after the last couple games for each was why short when you include Stephen Jackson missing . 220 is correct IMO but again how they execute for 4 quarters tells the story .....

Thats my take on it ....


:cheers:



 
SportsNut, do you have any thoughts bout 1Q total in Toronto, i'm leanin over Denver likes to run and Toronto can hit some three-pointers easly...thanks and BOL with GSW/Thunder over...i'm playing it as well along with 1Q over.
 
miodzik said:
SportsNut, do you have any thoughts bout 1Q total in Toronto, i'm leanin over Denver likes to run and Toronto can hit some three-pointers easly...thanks and BOL with GSW/Thunder over...i'm playing it as well along with 1Q over.
Click to expand...

Going to look at it now:shake:
 
What I am doing is first of all betting with the house which i like to do. I am also betting because Corey is still not playing and because Keith and Sidney are in charge of the defense for GS not Nelson and because both teams have opponents coming up that they are very likely to want to play very uptempo games. Oh yes and because I am still looking at 6 games in a row for Golden State that have gone under with Bavetta. And yes I think I think I have a solid position. You on the other hand Know because i disagree with you I am doing something Blindly. Where do I go from here?
It seems likely Krstic and Joe Smith play today.
 
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Let me say something about the Nets and Detroit and I have no bet on the game. The Nets last game let Chicago beat them at home breaking the home and home rule. That was pretty weak. Detroit broke through a barrier last game and got a quality win from a good team that they could be proud of. Exactly why was this such a good spot to bet against them?
 
On the fence really . Both teams are fast starters but at home TOR has played solid 1st Q defense . Probably like Tor 1st Q some as they have won the past HOME 1st Qs vs Den and last 2 in convincing fashion . Still lots of turnover on these two teams to decipher. Worst part is they adjusted to reflect the 1st Q tendencies to 52.5 was expecting 51 maybe 51.5 ...

Would say since they played @ GSW last they might wind up starting in that hectic pace . Still some key TOR players absent as well .

I could see why you like it but with the injuries and inflated price not sure I see value in it ......

GL but for me no formal opinion ..
 
tuck321 said:
What I am doing is first of all betting with the house which i like to do. I am also betting because Corey is still not playing and because Keith and Sidney are in chare of the defense for GS not Nelson and because both teams have opponents coming up that they are very likely to want to play very uptempo games. Oh yes and because I am still looking at 6 games in a row for Golden Srrate that have gone under with Bavetta. And yes I think I think I have a solid position. You on the other hand Know because i disagree with you I am doing something Blindly. Where do I go from here?
Click to expand...

I dont recall saying your points were invalid other then not seeing the relevancy of the Bavetta angle especially looking at the other 2 refs involved. I didnt say the under was a foolish bet or as you put it : we certainly should not be trying to bet over after the total has already gone up 4 points from the start.

So I came back with you shouldnt be betting trends blindly . We agree to disagree thats fine. Thats the point you establish your point and I mine the game tells us who was correct . Its not a pissing contest . I dont call plays your silly or foolish. We do this often enough and for long enough not to be acting like that .

Maybe I am having a bad day or two in the NBA and taking it the wrong way . I dont know . I never said the play was wrong just looking at the Bavetta stats they are kinda irrelevant IMO but if you like the UNDER then it is a trend you rather have on your side then against you.....:shake:
 
tuck321 said:
Let me say something about the Nets and Detroit and I have no bet on the game. The Nets last game let Chicago beat them at home breaking the home and home rule. That was pretty weak. Detroit broke through a barrier last game and got a quality win from a good team that they could be proud of. Exactly why was this such a good spot to bet against them?
Click to expand...

I played Det last time out so maybe I thought that was a peak win which inflated the number abit. Truth is I looked at Devin Harris and Vince Carter the heart and soul of the offense and thought despite DET's improved defense one would have a great day . DET had a long history of owning NJ but thought possibly with the player changes on each side it could be less one sided from now on. I prefer to not bet home dogs who lay chalk the next game after a win which here DET was off consecutive dog wins . Simply put I expect that despite DET's "payback" the Nets have performed well as DOGS getting 6 or more points and were 10-4 away and 11-3 ATS...I thought 6 was simply to much for a game that would be decided late...

Lucky me down 20-18 in the 1st Quarter with about a minute left Harris gets fouled and misses BOTH and then down 22-18 he holds for last shot and misses a three . So lost that 1st Q play thanks to the missed FTs , then thought the VC distratcion was issue for their 2nd Q play . I did not expect them to quit NJ very rarely loses both halves of game . So another lucky break NJ does enough to get back in it and I lose the 2nd H total by 2 pts , the Nets +6 by 2 Fts with 4 seconds left . Det went 16 of 23 Fts 63% and NJ rebounded after the 3/6 1st Q to go 16/21 ..the absence of VC and resting Harris to start the 4th put a terrible NJ team on the court something like Hassel , Ager , Douglas roberts and whoever else was out there. Unfortunately the NJ offense did nothing for 3 minutes and still won the 4th Q. I made the 2nd H plays based on being confident NJN scored 45 in the 2nd H if Det wins the 2nd H then the 2nd H over hits and thought low 40s was worst case for Det ...Unfortunately it was exactly as I guessed my worst case scenario.....
 
Added:

1st Quarter Houston +2.5 (8x)
1st half Houston +4.5 (8x)
Over 190 Houston (2x)-meant 8x
Over 99 -115 TT Houston (1x)-meant 4x

GL

Confused myself ..4x is the lowest play:36_11_6:
 
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Golden State is 2-7 SU & ATS off a SU win this season, their only instances of consecutive wins coming when their 2nd game was played at home (0-3 SU & ATS away).

this will also be GDS's 16th road game out of their last 22 games, and their 11th venue shift in 11 games.
 
Add..

OKC +3 -125 {12x}
OKC ML +115 {4x}
and to the earlier plays added this on top of what is posted
Over 219 {8x}
Over 111.5 1st H {4x}
Over 108.5 TT -115 OKC {4x}

GL
:cheers:
 
Thanks SF . I keep making silly decisions . Like Houson fulled game and got cute ..

2nd H :

Houston -1.5 (8x)
Denver -0.5 (12x)
Under 97.5 (4x)

GL
 
2nd H add ..

Over 108 GSW (24x)

Nothing happened in the 1st H and they still made 105 pts . Pace tad slower but also 18 turnovers and threes didnt start falling to late 2nd Quarter ...even had some droughts:cheers:GL

 
Sixers -3-120(24x)
Under LAC TT 91.5 (4x)
1st Q Philly -0.5 (8x)
4th Q Philly -0.5(4x)
1st H Sixers -1.5x (4 x)

GL..
 
SportsNut said:
12.31 Breakdown : (-110 unless noted)

1st Quarters : 2-3 -18.80
Nets +2 (8x)
Orl -1.5(4x)
Under 51 Orl (4x)
Sixers -0.5-115(8x)
Houston +2.5 (8x)

2nd Quarters: 0-1 -8.80
Bulls +1.5 (8x)


1st Halfs: 1-5 -48.80
Bulls +3 (12x)
Under 102 Chicago (8x)
Nets +3.5 (8x)
Over 111.5 GSW (12x)
Houston +4.5(8x)
Sixers -1.5(4x)


Full Game : 4-6 -1.40
Over 220 GSW (12x)Over 219 (8x)
Bulls +6 (4x)
Under 202 (8x)
Nets +6 (8x)
Over 188-120 NJN(8x)
Sixers -3-120(24x)
OKC +3 -125 {12x}
OKC ML +115 {4x}
Over 190 Houston (4x)
Nuggets ML -125 (12x)


Team Totals : 0-4 18.40
Over 91.5 -115 NJN (4x)
Under 91.5 LAC -116(4x)
Over 108.5 OKC -115 (4x)
Over 99 Houston -115 (4x)



Props - None

3rd or 4th Quarter Plays 1-0 +4.00
4th Q Sixers -0.5(4x)


Second Half : 4-5 -5.20
Over 108 GSW (24x)
Houston -1.5 (8x)
Denver -0.5 (12x)
Under 97.5 Tor (4x)
NJ +1 {4x}
Over 91 NJN{12x}
Bulls -3.5 (8x)
Sixers -1 (28x)
Under 93.5 (4x)

Leans:(4-1 LMAO !)
OKC +3 / ML
Denver ML / -1.5
Over Denver 201
Bucks +8
Over Milw 189

Good Luck ..:cheers:
Click to expand...

Looks like some exam I slept through in college . Red X's everywhere ..

-97.40 Day 1

Most of it on exotic bets so cutting those WAY DOWN . Only -6.60 on Full game and 2nd Hs.....
 
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Good call Tuck on the GSW under 220. 107-100 final .

Got the possessions wrong only76-161 expected about 8 or 9 more made buckets and about that many more possessions(thought 85-170) ..got the threes close at 12/29 and 43/53 was a few better then I expected.....:shake:
 
ok philly up 3 at half. I have a large wager on Philly -3 full game, but thinking of hedging out

Philly shooting 57%, Clips shooting 40%
Only reason clips still in it is cuz they're owning the boards with 12 offensive boards already
 
I am concerned that Philly one of the top 5 teams in rebounding differential is losing the board battle to the clips who are bottom 5 DESPITE the clips shooting worse

huge offensive rebounding numbers usually mean the team is hustling more and going for loose balls harder- a team I would want to back in the 2nd H
 
gimme some quick hitters for this 2nd H SN

I want to join in, but the shooting percentages scare me

agree about baron
 
I think Baron is hurt and really struggling because of it . That leaves the offense to Gordon , Paul Davis , Camby and Thorton with no bench. Factor in B2B and 3rd game in 4 days think Sixers take the 2nd H. Sixers arent a jump shooting team either so the shooting % could be okay ..
 
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