Wednesday Discussion

[bjorks]

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL - May 06
NATIONAL LEAGUE
4:10 PM
901 ATL BRAVES , Pitcher: D LOWE-R -1½+110 o9-105 -150
902 FLA MARLINS , Pitcher: G TAYLOR-L +1½-130 u9-115 +130

4:10 PM
903 PHI PHILLIES , Pitcher: C H PARK-R +1½+105 o8½-115 +225
904 NY METS , Pitcher: JO SANTANA-L -1½-125 u8½-105 -265

4:10 PM
905 MIL BREWERS , Pitcher: M PARRA-L +1½-210 o9-115 -110
906 CIN REDS , Pitcher: B ARROYO-R -1½+180 u9-105 -110

5:05 PM
907 CHI CUBS , Pitcher: R HARDEN-R -1½+110 o9EV -145
908 HOU ASTROS , Pitcher: M HAMPTON-L +1½-130 u9-120 +125

5:15 PM
909 PIT PIRATES , Pitcher: Z DUKE-L +1½-165 o9EV +125
910 STL CARDINALS , Pitcher: M BOGGS-R -1½+145 u9-120 -145

5:40 PM
911 SFO GIANTS , Pitcher: R JOHNSON-L +1½-170 o9½-110 +120
912 COL ROCKIES , Pitcher: U JIMENEZ-R -1½+150 u9½-110 -140

7:05 PM
913 ARI D'BACKS , Pitcher: J GARLAND-R +1½-145 o7½+105 +161
914 SDG PADRES , Pitcher: J PEAVY-R -1½+125 u7½-125 -181

7:10 PM
915 WAS NATIONALS , Pitcher: D CABRERA-R +1½-125 o9-125 +170
916 LA DODGERS , Pitcher: C KERSHAW-L -1½+105 u9+105 -200

AMERICAN LEAGUE
4:05 PM
917 MIN TWINS , Pitcher: K SLOWEY-R -1½+140 o10½-110 -120
918 BAL O`S , Pitcher: HENDRICKSON-L +1½-160 u10½-110 EV

4:05 PM
919 CLE INDIANS , Pitcher: C PAVANO-R
920 BOS RED SOX , Pitcher: MASTERSON-R

4:05 PM
921 TAM RAYS , Pitcher: A SONNANSTINE-R +1½-130 o10-120 +155
922 NY YANKEES , Pitcher: A BURNETT-R -1½+110 u10EV -175

5:10 PM
923 DET TIGERS , Pitcher: A GALARRAGA-R +1½-210 o9EV -110
924 CHI W SOX , Pitcher: M BUEHRLE-L -1½+180 u9-120 -110

5:10 PM
925 SEA MARINERS , Pitcher: C SILVA-R +1½-185 o10½EV EV
926 KAN ROYALS , Pitcher: S PONSON-R -1½+165 u10½-120 -120

7:05 PM
927 TEX RANGERS , Pitcher: S FELDMAN -R
928 OAK A`S , Pitcher: DAN GIESE -R

7:05 PM
929 TOR B-JAYS , Pitcher: R HALLADAY-R -1½EV o9EV -160
930 LA ANGELS , Pitcher: A ORTEGA-R +1½-120 u9-120 +140

Always wanted to be first. Mods go ahead and change the lines, I just wanted to post first.

At first glance...
REDS
TWINS
JAYS
SEA/KC OVER

Too much juice on Muts and Fathers, but maybe tie them into a parlay. I don't post baseball plays, but many of you through 25 games this year I tail and you're on fire. Keep up the good work!
:cheers:

 

[tuck321]

Early thoughts.
Boston rl
Dodgers rl
Seattle ml
Detroit ml
This game between WS and KC has been very costly. The 2 pens have been largely destroyed. Relief pitchers were used past their limits. Not sure looking at his games this year Mark can go long enough.
Probably talking to much without study but maybe Angels. Saw Oliver back tonight to give that pen a boost. It has not been automatic for Toronto in Anaheim and toronto has not been booming.
tampa Bay also. I know Burnett has good history but are the Yankees going well. I think not. Now Boston and LA seem like riders and I already know i will play both of them.

 

[CrimsonK]

Like Seattle as well

 

[tuck321]

This seems likely to be a very profitable day. If we ask nicely can we make more than 3 picks in the tournament? Hile posted Philadelphia plus 235 in the tournament. Would guess they are no worse than 40%. Over in Florida looks pretty good. This kid Taylor really does not look good. His first 2 games scored 14 and 15 runs. a very large number of players on that florida team hit Lowe very well. Florida swept Atlanta earlier this season in Atlanta. I am sure this is a friendly visit. If the Dodgers do not beat Washington by 3 or more tomorrow I believe we have the first definitive proof that
a. There is a god
b. He really is no fun.

 

[Actionman]

Does anyone know why is there no line posted yet at 5Dimes on the Texas/Oakland game as of 7:10am PCT?

 

[Unicorn]

Games I've decided to pass on:
Pittsburgh @ St.Louis
San Francisco @ Colorado
Minnesota @ Baltimore

Games I'm still considering to bet or not to bet on:
Cleveland @ Boston -201
Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees -158
Detroit +106 @ Chicago WS
Texas @ Oakland -114
Chicago Cubs -145 @ Houston

Games I'm definitely going to bet on:
Toronto @ LA Angels +150
Seattle +118 @ Kansas City
Washington @ LA Dodgers -202
Philadelphia @ NY Mets -238
Atlanta -140 @ Florida
Arizona @ San Diego -172
Milwaukee +103 @ Cincinnati

At the moment, I like these 3 teams to win the most:
1. LA Angels
2. San Diego
3. NY Mets

:shake:

 

[Unicorn]

If the Dodgers do not beat Washington by 3 or more tomorrow I believe we have the first definitive proof that
a. There is a god
b. He really is no fun.
c. This is baseball

There you go buddy, fixed it for you

 

[GWarner27]

If the Dodgers do not beat Washington by 3 or more tomorrow I believe we have the first definitive proof that
a. There is a god
b. He really is no fun.

:36_11_6:

 

[Kmacc]

I am not one to bet against a streak but hard to not like the Dodgers today. However I do have a few reservations about this play.
The good:
Washington flys all the way across the country after an agonizing suspended game yesterday. LAD have now won 12 in a row at home and appear to be rolling right along. Cabrera has been anything but good but has also been victimized by some shotty defense. He has given up 19 runs in 24.1 innings but only 12 earned. Also Washingtons bullpen is a mess, Cab is 0-2 but the Nats are 0-5 in his starts.

The Bad:
You now have to lay -200 after last night where they were only -120. The Nats bats haven't been too bad and Kershaw is 0-2 w/ a 5.46 ERA. He has had two rough starts on the road mixed in w/ 3 good starts against SD twice and SF. Both very light hitting clubs as SF last in league in runs and San Diego near the bottom. Kershaw in his 3 good outings 19 innings 6 hits 2 runs which is spectacular and really amazing he hasn't recorded a W in any of them yet. However his other two were clunkers albeit on the road they still have to be factored in here. So while I can't endorse laying -200 gotta think the Dodgers win this game about 70% of the time but will it be the good or the bad Kershaw tonight. He didn't exactly have good outings against the Nats last year.

 

[Kmacc]

Btw hope its the good Kershaw as I have him in one of my fantasy leagues, which is always a conflict of interest especially when wagering imo. Have 3 leagues, all pay leagues and consistently want to see my guys do well but pitching a huge weakness thus far, tonight I got:
Halladay, Kershaw, Harden, Jiminez, Slowey, Galarraga & Johan going so lot of chalk if I were to play these...

 

[tuck321]

Not sure myself. Just know everyone on the Dodger team remembers the 11-2 along with the sweep so you have what has been the best home team in baseball going out to punish Washington. Game should just fly over. Made dodgers a solid bet but not a monster. Have half as much on it over. Would caution all including Unicorn that while I simply am short on time I have enough material on Tampa to argue convincingly they should be the listed favorite today and that Philadelphia is very Live tonight. I have zero problem with chalk and would remind everyone not to lose sight of Boston tonight. Go with true odds no matter which direction.

 

[tuck321]

Will also remind you since SportsNut is not here to do it that Minn away last 13 against lefties is 4-9 and won with Perkins 3 times and Baker once.

 

[D-Woww]

thats a big statistic, but Hendrickson is such garbage

 

[tuck321]

He is what he is but maybe you should look closer at what that is and when. Justin is a good kid. I think Boston will win. cleveland team total is 4.5 with plus money. They have very good bats and owe this Boston team real grief. They have gone over this 8 of their last 10 road games and are coming off of a loss.

 

[sportjunky]

Ubaldo's numbers at home vs. the Giants last year were filthy:

14 innings, 7 hits, 0 runs.

 

[jimbo1227]

AL

min @ bal : looks pretty cut and dry. i really like minnesota ML and maybe even RL. maybe an under as well but i think minny is gonna be hitting around hendrickson pretty good.

tb @ nyy : the only reason for this line is burnett and the yank name. i bet em last night and they just couldn't do shit. think TB 1st 5 ML might be decent and certainly +1.5 (-130) is a play for me. think sonny outpitches burnett.

cle @ bos : pretty interesting game. pavano has 2 really quality starts on the road already @nyy and @det. pretty impressive. he has been thru hell when against boston. masterson is coming off a bad game. cleveland puts up 1 or 7-9. sometimes 7-9 isn't enough. boston bats are doing work but ellsbury absence hurts alot. i think cleveland is going to hit master pretty darn good and i could easily see cleveland win in a possible flat spot after a long road trip. lean to cle ML and +1.5

sea @ kc : LOVE the royals here. sid the kid has actually pitched well at home and KC just can't be beat. watched the game last night and the fans are actually getting into it. maybe an under because this is a high number, i expect ponson to pitch well, but KC could tee off on silva. KC ML and RL

det @ cws : like the good guys in black. i damn sure hope we get this done because we need a win. expect both pitchers to be sharp and maybe an under is in order. probably a one run game and i lean to cws.

 

[DJ Tanner]

LA Dodgers 12 games at home

12-0

Wins by 1 run -5
Wins by more than 3 runs- 7
Over/Unders at home 6-4-2

If you bet 100 on every home game +1200

If you bet them all season on the runline 17-11 +913

Worth it to bet them -1.5 when they are home..They seem to put up runs they scored 78 and gave up 29
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[Capt. Slap]

Thanks for Ubaldo's #'s sportsjunky,


How about this guys, I love Danny Cabrera, I almost always bet a little on him (even if its only 25 bucks) but...

HE HAS SUCH POOR COMMAND. WALKS TOO MANY GUYS, AND DODGERS ARE #1 AT DRAWING WALKS, ESPECIALLY WITH FURCAL LEADING OFF,


This could be a BLOWOUT. I'm playing LAD -2.5, LAD -1.5, and parlaying LAD ML with a few other plays today.

 

[tuck321]

have gotten off Florida under. saw a good poster on the other side and looked more. Atlanta o-4 under first road game of a series. Lowe playing best rest and florida not being able to hit yesterday. He liked yankees over which works for me and have played.

 

[tuck321]

You know that guy Hile is not so stupid. I have the wrong theme in WS. They lost and Detroit won and they hit good and have a major pitcher to pick them up. Off Detroit and on WS RL. Still like Seattle a lot.

 

[sportjunky]

jumped off detroit as well, sox got contreras tomorrow, really not worth fading them today

 

[spockgato]

no kubell , crede or mauer in starting lineup for twins tonight.......

 

[tuck321]

actually did not know that. no difference. dodgers were my biggest bet. Baltimore 2. equals below were Ws ml and rl. Seattle and Philadelphia ml and plus 1.5, Tampa a little smaller. Cleveland team total over 4.5 Baltimore first 5 , New york over 10 and Reds under 9 small. sorry about the Reds pick it still may win and I do not think it awful but it is a somewhat weak theme as Parra is a decent pitcher on a good team.