Wed NBA

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Solid nite that I let to much get away from me in the late games...guess I will have to live with being up only 15-20 units so far this week but not good enough for having a strong handle on the action IMO...

Leans :

Minny +1 +106 & Und 188.5 -105 : Minny plays low scoring games on the road and especially in back ends. What I think jumped out at me after thinking Tor could be attractive was the fact Tor was favored!!! The Raps have only been favored three times this ENTIRE season Port , Atl and Philly and are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU witha 2pt win vs Philly. Minny actually has a soid track record in back to backs so far. Now way Tor should be favored...

Under 189 -107 Orlando & LAL
Well do we need more then its Orlando and ORL at home???


NYK +5.5 -105 :
Okay past 3 games as road chalk DET is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. They lost in Char and Indy winning by 2 in Miami ...they have a blowout win in NY along with a 1 pt win and a 2 & 4 pt losses.....NYK upset Chi and Utah at home last week why not again?? Earlier in the year NY went to DET as 7 pt dogs and lost by 8....I could see maybe -3 or below but I rode NY last week catching big numbers so the train chugs along...

Grizzlies -1-102 :
I know once I wakeup Milw will be favored but Bucks as road chalk??? Playing well but no defense and that makes them questionable when they need to win to cash... Memphis has beaten up on them recent seasons at home. They lost by 6 (wink, wink) in Milw earlier without Gasol. You have MILW of a big win in SA but Mem is 0-9 in backends. However Memphis played real well last week vs Utah in a backend spot...Just think Mem getting blownout coming home versus a team off a so called high is a great spot...maybe another Over 202...

Over 192.5 +100 Bulls:
yeah like everyone else I am interested in Miami here but I thought the line would be bigger seeing how bad Miami is away and how good Chi si at home...basically I would expect Chi to score around a 100 at home and do the math that makes it hard for the game to fall under 193 if Miami covers or is close to....Miami has allowed a ton of points on the road recently.....
 
1. Agree with you on Memphis. I think this is a good letdown spot for Milwaukee coming off of a road win at SA. I think the better defensive team wins here.

2. I can't pull the trigger on Detroit -5.5, its just not my style to lay road chalk, but Chicago was -5.5 @ NYK and now Detroit is the same number? I definately see something wrong here. Either Chicago should of never been 5.5 or Detroit should be 6-7...I lean Pistons.

3. You could be right with the Miami/Chi Over. Couldn't really see this O/U being any lower, although I could see a a 95-90 finish. I lean Miami as I think they will dictate the pace and lately they have not been a 100+ point team.
 
I know Josh Smith is out with hernia surgery! Last game zaza, lue ( the starting pg) and childress ( who would have started were out at as well).
Cleveland has 11 of their next 14 games are on the road, including a 7 games in 12 days west coast trip. they need to take advantage of games like tonight to build their confidence on the road. If zaza and childress are out, I would say this game has potential.. depending on injuries
 
I think it was said to be likely that ATL had all 4 injured players here : Zaza , Claxton , Lue and Childress...that kept me off them last nite...guess will see...If they are again w/o those I would entertain Cle but I hate road chalk....
 
Thoughts :

Minny @ Tor :
Looking at last nites game it should not have been taxing for Minny to play last nite as KG went only 35 minutes . The Raptors have been off since the 23rd and have won 4 straight in the series. They have played just twice on 3 days rest this year going 0-2 SU and avg 190pts. Minny is 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS on no rest scoring 88 / allowing 87.4 .

Minny on backends 11/4 @ Port lose 88-86 on a buzzer beater laying 3.5 , lose @ LAL 95-88(+7.5) playing 4th in 5 nites , lost vs NO 99-96 laying 3 , beat LAC 104-96 , lose @ Hou 82-75 , win @ CHI 91-81 , win @ Indy 78-71.

So as you can see back to back games has not impacted Minnys play to date. They are 3-4 with a 2pt , 3pt loss and (two)7 pt losses. Very key to me was all the games played AWAY on the back end were very low scoring aiding my UNDER thoughts.

Every trend has an Under bias and Toronto has been favored just 3 times all season....going 0-3 ATS with 2 losses and a 2pt win.....Which leads me to this how in the world is Tor favored here? They played some good ball on the road trip but they squeaked by Portland and LAC on buzzer beaters. The Suns beat up on them and they were fatigued when tehy rolled into SEA. They did upset NJ and GS but they were small dogs in those games...as medicore as Minny is so are GS and NJ especially on the road...

Strong Leans : Minny +1.5 & Under 188.5

Detriot @ NYK

Basically my opinion here is that the line is inflated. I say that cause partly shown last week by NY that the numbers vs Chi and Utah were way to high and they won SU. The fact remains that DET has been a great dog but poor as chalk especially road chalk. They have lost SU in Indy and Char and lost ATS in Miami past 3 as road chalk. Think in Piston games the Underdog is 12-3 past 15 games...meaning whoever is the DOG in Piston games was 12-3 against the spread. The Pistons are a quality team and backends willnot be an issue for them but the line is.

In the 1st meeting this yr NY traveled to DET catching 7 and lost by 8. So where does this spread come from?? I just dont see how it could be more then -3 really...Francis returned last game and Jeffries should be eligible here as well. The Knicks generally play fairly well against DET losing teh past 2 meeting away by 8 and 6. They have a 2-2 SU record at MSG with a 1 pt loss and blowout which I believe was the 1st time DET traveled to face Larry Brown.

Strong Lean : Knicks (Played them @ +5.5 -115 / ML +190)

Milw @ Memphis

The Bucks are smoking HOT , winners of 5 straight. They are off a huge win in SA and season high 57% shooting...Bucks are now 6-10 away and only 1-4 lifetime in Memphis. Memphis was blownout in Wash last nite allowing 77 pts in the 1st Half!!To me it seems like the Grizz have shed that defense orientated image and allowed 5 staright opoonents above 100 pts and 101 for the month of December..all Milw has done is score 111 ,108 ,121 ,113 , 115 ,114...while giving up at least 104 in 7 of 10 and 94 in the other 3 .

This is a rematch / revenge from Dec 8th when as 5 pt dogs Grizz minus Gasol lost by 6. This is somewhat misleading as I remember Memphis closing the game on some ridiculous run like 13-2 to make it a game..

Weird spot as you would think MILW expended so much beating SA last nite with 4 starters playing 38 ,39 minutes. I do think Patterson and Villanueva former starters have no problem picking up the slack though. Grizzlies are off an embarrassing performance you would hope inspired them. Only Mike Miller cracked the 30 minute mark and despite Memphis crap record on backends 0-9 SU they battled Utah in the situation last meeting. Yo sort have to look a Mem real loosely and use there most recent games as Gasol gets healthier and improves...they are much different team with him....(obviously)

Days Rest

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width=170>0 Days Rest </TD><TD width=70>W/L</TD><TD width=70>ATS</TD><TD width=70>AF</TD><TD width=70>AA</TD><TD width=70>Total</TD><TD width=70>O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>MIL</TD><TD class=datacell>5-4</TD><TD class=datacell>4-5-0</TD><TD class=datacell>104.4</TD><TD class=datacell>104.3</TD><TD class=datacell>208.8</TD><TD class=datacell>6-3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>MEM</TD><TD class=datacell>0-9</TD><TD class=datacell>4-5-0</TD><TD class=datacell>86.7</TD><TD class=datacell>94.3</TD><TD class=datacell>181.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4-5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Personally I would suggest that Milw and Seattle are very similiar teams...I would say Milw is slightily better on a nuetral court. So the fact Se was +4.5 and memphis was +5 in Milw leds me to believe this line is ever so short cause of a couple of big recent MILW wins.....Think the over is looking to high maybe 198/199 range was better...since Memphis will need to hold them to about 95 , 96 for a SU win IMO...all after a season high performance I tend to expect a flat performance in the near future...its just the way it works......Milw has now had consecutive games above 55% .......

Strong Lean : Grizzlies -1 -110


Miami @ Chicago
You can look at alot ofrecent Bulls home games and see low pt totals allowed. However I think for the most part they have just being playing banged up and shorthanded teams...

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>CHI</TD><TD class=datacell>4-3</TD><TD class=datacell>3-4-0</TD><TD class=datacell>99.6</TD><TD class=datacell>95.6</TD><TD class=datacell>195.1</TD><TD class=datacell>4-3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>1 Day Rest</TD><TD class=datahl2 colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>MIA</TD><TD class=datacell>6-7</TD><TD class=datacell>5-7-1</TD><TD class=datacell>95.7</TD><TD class=datacell>99.7</TD><TD class=datacell>195.4</TD><TD class=datacell>7-6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

They allowed 76 to the shorthanded Bobcats , 89 to Odom-less Lakers , 111 to Milw , 84 to the Allen-less Sonics , 91 to Wolves who they lost to and 91 to the shorthanded Pacers and so on...point is Miami offensively is playing well and should be able to crack 95 + points which would leave the only concern as a SU Heat win..

The Heat have allowed a ton of points on the road ...121 Milw , 123 Den and basically 8 of 12 away have sailed over 100 pts....

Lean : Over 192.5 -105
 
Props : (4-1 +5.53)

Under 28.5 +118 Wade (2u) +2.36
Over 6.5 +100 Rebounds Mourning (1u) -1.00
Under 19.5 +117 Jamison (1u) scored 17 +1.17
Over 14 -109 Felton (1u) scored 22 +1.00
Over 13 -124 G.Wallace (2u) scored 40 +2.00

Thoughts :

The Under for Wade might seem odd but I think we all agree a large part of Wade's game is getting to the FT line. In 11 career regular season games he gets to the line on avg 7.9 times against Chi and in the 1st meeting just SIX. In 11 road games he avgs 28.1 ppg this season . The key was coming across the fact that when Wade returns home to Chi he avgs only 13.8 ppg in 6 career games @ the United Center. The key is less then 20 attempts from the floor and less then 9 from the line...

With the Mourning rebounds its a sort of a leap of faith that ZO will get 20-25 minutes here so with that I think he can grab 7 orr 8 boards...hoping for a big 1st quarter....

The Under Jamison cause he avgs 17.9 ppg on the road and 17.1 ppg in games played on no rest(also only 19.4 on the season). I rode this prop last situation(in PHO!!) and will continue to do so until it loses value..I did play the Over for Jamison last nite.... games with no rest 15 , 21 , 27 , 9 , 22 ,10, 16

The Felton and Wallace Props aresimly about 2 key offensive players being home and having the opportunity to get alot of looks. We all know what type game WASH will attempt to play which should mean alot of attempts and some asy buckets for these two....
 
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Just being patient before I finalize my card....(for a change)

My strong thoughts:

Wolves +1.5 -104 & ML +108
Under 188.5 +101 Toronto
Knicks +5.5 -115 & ML +190
Memphis -1 -111 or ML -117
Over 192.5 +100 Chicago
 
you ever try and just pick 2-3 good bets instead of betting the whole board?
 
I'm suspicious yet again. MEM & MIL total should be higher, just like the Wash/Mem one.

MEM 13-3 to Over last 16. It can be said the perception is MEM is an *Under team* but "the public" is more a what have you done for me lately beast, and i dont believe the grizz's 16 game run of Overs conditioning would have any superficial bettor clinging to any under beliefs about them anymore.

meanwhile, MIL has gone Over 211 pts in 6 straight games, Over 202 pts in 8 of their last 9 road games. And they are also 13-3 to Over their last 16.

2 teams a combined 26-6 to Over their last 32, with a combined average of 209.2 points over their last 6 each respectively, and this only opens barely over 200, like the Mem/Wash line?

I can handle 1 *gift* being given out (Mem/Wash line), but another one?
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
I'm suspicious yet again. MEM & MIL total should be higher, just like the Wash/Mem one.

MEM 13-3 to Over last 16. It can be said the perception is MEM is an *Under team* but "the public" is more a what have you done for me lately beast, and i dont believe the grizz's 16 game run of Overs conditioning would have any superficial bettor clinging to any under beliefs about them anymore.

meanwhile, MIL has gone Over 211 pts in 6 straight games, Over 202 pts in 8 of their last 9 road games. And they are also 13-3 to Over their last 16.

2 teams a combined 26-6 to Over their last 32, with a combined average of 209.2 points over their last 6 each respectively, and this only opens barely over 200, like the Mem/Wash line?

I can handle 1 *gift* being given out (Mem/Wash line), but another one?
Click to expand...

Are you implying that you like the Under?
 
I have tried just about everything...

Reason I dont narrow down is simply indecision on my part...I think over time it all works out to where I am basically hiting the same pct no matter what the size of the play its more about rushing a decision sometimes in fear of losing a number or the disaste for leaving a good decison unmade(like leaning a certain way but fearing to pull the trigger).....when I get my head screwed on right I go on ridiculous runs of like 17-3 in 2 or 3 day spans when I dont I have my head screwed on right so to speak I tend to give away(grind away) to much of my profits like last nite....no reason I dont end up +20 last nite instead more like +6...

To me this is simply a market I buy whats cheap in my eyes and sell whats fat. I do admit that lately I have played way to many marginal games / decisions and rushed most of them.....

The way I look at it is easier to go 2-1 +5 units overtime or easier to make more then +5 on avg a day overtime simply trusting myself....much more room for error with my approach....
 
BetCrimes I think you are wrong though in your perception of the public. Do you think a socalled perception built over seasons can simply be erased in a 20 game span?? I really think it takes along time for the public to adjust its views and conversely for the linesmakers to adjust cause they dont need to. I always say books do not adjust quickly unless perception warrants it.

I think the difference is Wash was home when that gift was dished out . I think this line has been adjusted by looking at what it was a few weeks ago back in Milw. Memphis doesnt exactly break 200 pts at home on a regular basis and Milw has thrown some 95 pt efforts up on the road...

I actually thought 199 was fair here so Ipassed on the Over but the higher it runs the better an under does look. Since you are the research King look atthis angle...what does a team shot when it comes off consecutive 50+ FG efforts in the third game , in this case Milw 55% the last 2....

I think thisis very different then last nite though cause Wash was home and Milw was away.....
 
Austin, this season...

in ATS wins, MIL is O/U 13-1
in ATS losses, MIL is O/U 7-7

It seems to me this total has opened low, and it has climbed over a point from that opener reflecting others have had the same perception. It seems to me an Under here is aligned (more) with a MEM win ATS, which given this line means pretty much simply a SU win.

I'd find it hard to take Under even at what it stands at now, but I cant take Over. I'm too suspicious. Whoever *they* are, it seems to me they're in bed with a Memphis-Under combination outcome here.
 
Nut, MIL away have broken 202 in 8 of their last 9, this mirrors the fact of their finally finding some consistent form (just like Washington, who earlier in the season were all unders on the road before they too found form).

And as far as people switching perceptions about MEM, you have to remember the *Under MEM* everyone knew produced totals regularly between the 160s & 170s. Its now mid-high 180s+ almost every game. Anyone clinging to this MEM team mirroring anything about their former playoff selves is one very slow learner in my book.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Austin, this season...

in ATS wins, MIL is O/U 13-1
in ATS losses, MIL is O/U 7-7

It seems to me this total has opened low, and it has climbed over a point from that opener reflecting others have had the same perception. It seems to me an Under here is aligned (more) with a MEM win ATS, which given this line means pretty much simply a SU win.

I'd find it hard to take Under even at what it stands at now, but I cant take Over. I'm too suspicious. Whoever *they* are, it seems to me they're in bed with a Memphis-Under combination outcome here.
Click to expand...

See now thats genius IMO. First cause you just rationalized what I thought and even mentioned earlier. For Memphis to win I(which I think happens) said they need to hold Milw around the 95 pt threshold and you found rational , undisputable data that backs my thoughts.....

I wouldnt say the total opened low though. In accordance to the fact MILW is scoring 110 a nite it did but I would be seriously shocked if they did that in Memphis. Look at the 2nd H charge Utah ahd to make to get to 100. I love the fact you look atthe whole picture when making decisions but how bout the fact Milw has scored 90 , 82 , 85 and 84 last 4 in Memphis...and hit only 100 at home...logically a team would score more at home then away...Only Utah @ 100 and Dallas @ 115 broke 99 in Memphis this year....
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Nut, MIL away have broken 202 in 8 of their last 9, this mirrors the fact of their finally finding some consistent form (just like Washington, who earlier in the season were all unders on the road before they too found form).

And as far as people switching perceptions about MEM, you have to remember the *Under MEM* everyone knew produced totals regularly between the 160s & 170s. Its now mid-high 180s+ almost every game. Anyone clinging to this MEM team mirroring anything about their former playoff selves is one very slow learner in my book.
Click to expand...

I do agree with the slow learner comment. Thats why the PUBLIC tends to lose they just dont have a clue. I think most Mem totals were in the mid 170's in the past and now they had been bumped to the low 180's and more recently as you said high 180's and low 190's...I think the fact it hit 194 in Milw and was 193.5 means this has been adjusted enough already...they are adjusting but as I said they must not be getting killed on thee totals...vs Sea 189 , vs Utah 191 , vs Atl 180 , vs Port 180 , earlier Dal 186.5....so this is really a recent thing with Memphis since Gasol returned and they have attempted to adjust...if neither team was on these big over runs...this game would be about 188...
 
Only Utah @ 100 and Dallas @ 115 broke 99 in Memphis this year....
Click to expand...

Thats true, but then MEM has only played 1 of the *big 4* at home this season: WAS (the other 3 being MIL, GDS & PHX). They played them when WAS was in terrible form, hence the very low total (and the fact WAS lost SU). MIL isnt in terrible form, and when any of the big 4 are in good form, thats when points flow so freely its sickening.

If Dallas & Utah can break 99 - and they play defense/a semblence of set offenses - why cant any of the (remaining) Big 4 *no defense* teams go where those other 2 teams went?

They did play in MIL recently and totaled 194, but that was an Over result. MIL's play - and offense - has since stepped into a much higher gear, and with MEM being the weaker team, I'd expect them to score more at home than on the road, so it makes sense to me the total is higher for this game than that contest in MIL. I simply dont think it opened high enough. None of that is saying that these teams get 200 automatically by any means, but in the perception game it comes as no suprise to me this line has climbed over a point since its open.
 
7 PM's (-14.11u)

Bobcats +6 -110 (2units) ML +194 (1/2 unit) Loss -2.70

Beautiful 1 pt ATS loss and 4th Q choke!

-Really was looking hard at Under 208 in Charlotte and Under 101.5 -110 team total. Simply put look at the tremendous dropoff in scoring when Knight is out they managed a 100 vs Boston at home and really mostly 80 somethings...84 , 76 , 109 in OT , 84 , 62 , 93 , 82....Bobcats cracked 100 just 6 times all season with 2 in OT but 4 recently(nearly 5 straight before the two game trip) in the past 2 weeks...So for now passing wondering if Knight or someone is making a reappearance...cause the 11 cent move makes no logical sense to me....The whole Breven knight factor skews my opinion of the spread...not sure how they do it but would definetly lean Charlotte here....Wiz as road chalk??? they were just catching DD's in PHO and last time they were favored away was Den last week in a bad spot...last time they had an easy win at home and travled the next nite the got smoked in Chi 112-94...being cautious here

Over 96.5 -106 Cavs (2units) Loss -2.12

Love the 1st H 50 and 2nd H egg!

Also thought about ATL over 91 but the injury situation is a huge question mark and have no idea whats up with the missing foutr horseman. Cavs been struggling on offense where as ATL sine sliding has paid no attention to defense...Cavs scored 106...last 2 in ATL...ATl allowed 100+ 4 straight and 7 of 9..really interested in the o 186.5 as well..

Wolves +2 -110 (6units) L-7.20
Under 189 -110 (3units) L-3.30

Worked out beautifully Miny won every quarter lead at the start of the 4th and choked.....even leading most of the 4th Q with 50 secs left and down 93-91 it could go either way on both plays...I lose both 100-97! 13 pts in the final secs......


Looking at last nites game it should not have been taxing for Minny to play last nite as KG went only 35 minutes . The Raptors have been off since the 23rd and have won 4 straight in the series. They have played just twice on 3 days rest this year going 0-2 SU and avg 190pts. Minny is 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS on no rest scoring 88 / allowing 87.4 .

Minny on backends 11/4 @ Port lose 88-86 on a buzzer beater laying 3.5 , lose @ LAL 95-88(+7.5) playing 4th in 5 nites , lost vs NO 99-96 laying 3 , beat LAC 104-96 , lose @ Hou 82-75 , win @ CHI 91-81 , win @ Indy 78-71.

So as you can see back to back games has not impacted Minnys play to date. They are 3-4 with a 2pt , 3pt loss and (two)7 pt losses. Very key to me was all the games played AWAY on the back end were very low scoring aiding my UNDER thoughts.

Every trend has an Under bias and Toronto has been favored just 3 times all season....going 0-3 ATS with 2 losses and a 2pt win.....Which leads me to this how in the world is Tor favored here? They played some good ball on the road trip but they squeaked by Portland and LAC on buzzer beaters. The Suns beat up on them and they were fatigued when tehy rolled into SEA. They did upset NJ and GS but they were small dogs in those games...as medicore as Minny is so are GS and NJ especially on the road...

Under 189.5 -110 Orlando (3units)...I hadnt put this in yet and I am now reconsidering ....see 191.5 now...I always wait with ++ juice on my side.. NO PLAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lakers +121 (Small) Win +1.21 this was soo easy thats why I second guessed it and played for 1 whole unit!


Basically rolling with the this is ORL at home theory....dont see how ORL can be favored here...
 
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BetCrimes1984 said:
Thats true, but then MEM has only played 1 of the *big 4* at home this season: WAS (the other 3 being MIL, GDS & PHX). They played them when WAS was in terrible form, hence the very low total (and the fact WAS lost SU). MIL isnt in terrible form, and when any of the big 4 are in good form, thats when points flow so freely its sickening.

If Dallas & Utah can break 99 - and they play defense/a semblence of set offenses - why cant any of the (remaining) Big 4 *no defense* teams go where those other 2 teams went?

They did play in MIL recently and totaled 194, but that was an Over result. MIL's play - and offense - has since stepped into a much higher gear, and with MEM being the weaker team, I'd expect them to score more at home than on the road, so it makes sense to me the total is higher for this game than that contest in MIL. I simply dont think it opened high enough. None of that is saying that these teams get 200 automatically by any means, but in the perception game it comes as no suprise to me this line has climbed over a point since its open.
Click to expand...

I dont think WAS form had anything to do with the low total really the 80 point outcome I agree with...the last meeting needing 108 2nd H points and some ridiculous game ending run to get there by a half point. I dont see how a milw total doesnt go higher at this point but the public is always late to the party I have been TOUTING Memphis overs for a good 10 days now(even Milw overs)...this looks easy on paper but the point to me still is onlly 2 teams have cracked 100...and while they maybe more defensive minded in generally the have the same offensive firepower as a MILW...really Mil is hot they arent an offense who shoul dbe scoring 110 a nite...IMO....

I dont think they made a mistake with this line. I actually think they allowed themselves enough a room. Plus you have to factor situation in here. You know a guy like Fratello is going to emphasize defense after that showing last nite and you know Milw after consecutive 55+% FG games is due for some sort of a dropoff. And you can see Mem totals gapping 180 ...to 200 in like 4 games...Also looking back Milw has been scoring a ton of points in many ways I see Utah and Memphis as similiar...I say that cause Milw reeled off three straight west coast overs with a ton of points then through up 88 in Utah..

To me to have the higghest total for Milw away recently in Memphis is a ba spot to play Over along with the corresponding situations...
 
BC & SN - You guys make very good cases for the Over in Memphis. I originally was leaning Under, but I find myself in the middle. The mere fact that Milwaukee has been more Over prone on the road makes me stay away from this total. I like Memphis to win this game, but the Bucks zone defense could create so many opportunites to send this game in the 210's. Thanks for the info from both of you, it is appreciated.

:shake:
 
7:30 PM (+6.90)

Under 87 -105 Houston (2units) No Play- TMac was in!

Looks like McGrady is OUT and we know Ming is out. Havent really seen anyone step up yet in their absence. Seems like guys are forcing shots more then anything ...Battier , Skip to My Lou...

Knicks +5.5 -115( 5units) WIn +5. ML +190 (1u) +1.9
Basically my opinion here is that the line is inflated. I say that cause partly shown last week by NY that the numbers vs Chi and Utah were way to high and they won SU. The fact remains that DET has been a great dog but poor as chalk especially road chalk. They have lost SU in Indy and Char and lost ATS in Miami past 3 as road chalk. Think in Piston games the Underdog is 12-3 past 15 games...meaning whoever is the DOG in Piston games was 12-3 against the spread. The Pistons are a quality team and backends willnot be an issue for them but the line is.

In the 1st meeting this yr NY traveled to DET catching 7 and lost by 8. So where does this spread come from?? I just dont see how it could be more then -3 really...Francis returned last game and Jeffries should be eligible here as well. The Knicks generally play fairly well against DET losing teh past 2 meeting away by 8 and 6. They have a 2-2 SU record at MSG with a 1 pt loss and blowout which I believe was the 1st time DET traveled to face Larry Brown.
 
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Austintx_05 said:
BC & SN - You guys make very good cases for the Over in Memphis. I originally was leaning Under, but I find myself in the middle. The mere fact that Milwaukee has been more Over prone on the road makes me stay away from this total. I like Memphis to win this game, but the Bucks zone defense could create so many opportunites to send this game in the 210's. Thanks for the info from both of you, it is appreciated.

:shake:
Click to expand...

I must have crossed my words I was simply saying I thought the line(total) was high more then anything. I do lean Under cause I like Memphis to win SU...
 
8 & 8:30 PM's(-0.52)

Grizzlies -117ML (6units)...concerned this line is not moving lower

Loss -7.02
I will learn one day trust my instincts!

The Bucks are smoking HOT , winners of 5 straight. They are off a huge win in SA and season high 57% shooting...Bucks are now 6-10 away and only 1-4 lifetime in Memphis. Memphis was blownout in Wash last nite allowing 77 pts in the 1st Half!!To me it seems like the Grizz have shed that defense orientated image and allowed 5 staright opoonents above 100 pts and 101 for the month of December..all Milw has done is score 111 ,108 ,121 ,113 , 115 ,114...while giving up at least 104 in 7 of 10 and 94 in the other 3 .

This is a rematch / revenge from Dec 8th when as 5 pt dogs Grizz minus Gasol lost by 6. This is somewhat misleading as I remember Memphis closing the game on some ridiculous run like 13-2 to make it a game..

Weird spot as you would think MILW expended so much beating SA last nite with 4 starters playing 38 ,39 minutes. I do think Patterson and Villanueva former starters have no problem picking up the slack though. Grizzlies are off an embarrassing performance you would hope inspired them. Only Mike Miller cracked the 30 minute mark and despite Memphis crap record on backends 0-9 SU they battled Utah in the situation last meeting. Yo sort have to look a Mem real loosely and use there most recent games as Gasol gets healthier and improves...they are much different team with him....(obviously)

Days Rest

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width=170>0 Days Rest </TD><TD width=70>W/L</TD><TD width=70>ATS</TD><TD width=70>AF</TD><TD width=70>AA</TD><TD width=70>Total</TD><TD width=70>O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>MIL</TD><TD class=datacell>5-4</TD><TD class=datacell>4-5-0</TD><TD class=datacell>104.4</TD><TD class=datacell>104.3</TD><TD class=datacell>208.8</TD><TD class=datacell>6-3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>MEM</TD><TD class=datacell>0-9</TD><TD class=datacell>4-5-0</TD><TD class=datacell>86.7</TD><TD class=datacell>94.3</TD><TD class=datacell>181.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4-5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Personally I would suggest that Milw and Seattle are very similiar teams...I would say Milw is slightily better on a nuetral court. So the fact Se was +4.5 and memphis was +5 in Milw leds me to believe this line is ever so short cause of a couple of big recent MILW wins.....Think the over is looking to high maybe 198/199 range was better...since Memphis will need to hold them to about 95 , 96 for a SU win IMO...all after a season high performance I tend to expect a flat performance in the near future...its just the way it works......Milw has now had consecutive games above 55%...Lean UNDER!!

Over Miami 192 -110 (waiting on a #) (5units) +5.00
Over 93.5 -107 Miami team (2units) +2.00
Heat +6 -110 (2units) PUSH ML +215 (1/2unit) -0.50

You can look at alot of recent Bulls home games and see low pt totals allowed. However I think for the most part they have just being playing banged up and shorthanded teams...

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>CHI</TD><TD class=datacell>4-3</TD><TD class=datacell>3-4-0</TD><TD class=datacell>99.6</TD><TD class=datacell>95.6</TD><TD class=datacell>195.1</TD><TD class=datacell>4-3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>1 Day Rest</TD><TD class=datahl2 colSpan=6></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>MIA</TD><TD class=datacell>6-7</TD><TD class=datacell>5-7-1</TD><TD class=datacell>95.7</TD><TD class=datacell>99.7</TD><TD class=datacell>195.4</TD><TD class=datacell>7-6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

They allowed 76 to the shorthanded Bobcats , 89 to Odom-less Lakers , 111 to Milw , 84 to the Allen-less Sonics , 91 to Wolves who they lost to and 91 to the shorthanded Pacers and so on...point is Miami offensively is playing well and should be able to crack 95 + points which would leave the only concern as a SU Heat win..

The Heat have allowed a ton of points on the road ...121 Milw , 123 Den and basically 8 of 12 away have sailed over 100 pts....
 
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The 10 PM schedule hasnt really jumped out at me yet....have my own b-ball game at 7:15 so I probably will just wait till I get home to take care of those if any...
 
1st H : (-1.17 so far)

Under 103 -103 Charlotte (2units) -2.06

This number seems way LOW....I know its to low since Char is a 1st H team...

Atl +3 -111 (1u) ML +163 (1u) -2.11

thinking they tend to play well for a Half then disappear..

Under 103 -106 memphis (1u) +1.00

Memphis home games tend to start slow..

Over 97 -114 Boston (2u) Win +2.00

1st Quarters : (-1.46 )

Charlotte ML +122 (1u) -1.00
Magic ML -120 (1u)+1.00
NYK ML +130 (1u) -1.30 (down 1 led at half!)
Heat ML +139 (1u) -1.00
Un 47.5 -116 NYK(1u) -1.16
LAC -2 -120 (2u) +2.00
 
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Playing catch up here :

Second Half

Grizz -3.5 -107 (2units) L -2.14

I deserve to lose the game play ....said I was concerned that it went to -1.5 instead of going To +1 ....lets hope I can get back soem in the 2nd H cause I dont foresee a comeback by Memphis....
 
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10 PM :

No interest really in these games:

Hornets Over 85 -110 team (2units) Push
 
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SN, I woulda joined you on those plays but I was too late. Hopefully we can find some plays for the 2nd half! How's the night treating you so far? BOL!!!!
 
Goopster24 said:
SN, I woulda joined you on those plays but I was too late. Hopefully we can find some plays for the 2nd half! How's the night treating you so far? BOL!!!!
Click to expand...

Really depends heavily on the NYK outcome.....its not a good nite though couple of 1 pt losses....real bad on 1st Q and 1st H plays but got that all back with Player Props..

definetly can make a run at even with some luck here....
 
Second Half

Kings +0.5 -117 (2u) Win +2.

Just dont see Philly making a run here...

Blazers -2.5 -113 (1u) WIn +1.

Line sucks but I hopingNO does the 4th Q fade again...
 
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Second Half

Boston +1.5 -107 (2u) ML +123 (1u)

Simply think that Boston cannot play any worse..and LAC will NOT win all 4 Q's so it becomes a question of who has the more dominanting quarter..

Also since I have Over 192 I will hedge 1 unit (half the play) with Und 95.5 -115 cause that 2nd Q was scary!
 
-7.73 Sides/totals
-1.17 1st H
-1.46 1st Q
+0.86 2nd H
+5.53 Player Props

Pending:
Over 192 -110 LAC (2u)
Under 95.5 -115 2nd H LAC (1u) Hedge

2nd H
Boston +1.5 -107 (2u)
ML +124 Bos (1u)
 
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