Last Chance Value Picks for Betting Vikings vs. Bears
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Monday, November 16, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Soldier Field in Chicago
Adam Thielen
Over/Under 58.5 Yards
Smaller Role
Wide receiver Adam Thielen has seen his role in Minnesota’s offense dwindle.
In each of his last three games, Thielen has received five or fewer targets.
In a high-scoring affair with Atlanta, Thielen caught five passes for 51 yards. Then things continued to go downhill from there.
Against the Packers, he caught three passes for 27 yards. In Minnesota’s last game, he caught two passes for 38 yards against Detroit.
So if he faced in each of those games today’s over/under in receiving yardage, he would be on an 0-3 under run.
Other Players
Thielen’s role has lessened while other teammates have played a bigger role.
Most notably, star running back Dalvin Cook is becoming ever more emphatically the central focus of the offense.
The Vikings owe their current two-game winning streak primarily to him. Against Green Bay, he had 33 touches. Against the Lions, he accrued 24 touches.
With him healthy and fit — he had missed a few games before his team played Green Bay — it’s hard to imagine Minnesota diverging from its renewed emphasis on Cook.
This last point is meaningful for Thielen because more touches for Cook will mean fewer opportunities for him.
Kyle Fuller
Even if Minnesota did, for whatever reason, want to look Thielen’s way, Thielen still merits little optimism.
His history against Chicago has been quite poor over a long period of time.
He’s faced Chicago 11 times. In those 11 games, he averages 2.7 receptions and 29.1 YPG.
With top cornerback Kyle Fuller harassing him, he won’t improve upon this career average tonight.
Fuller is allowing a ridiculously low 46.6 percent completion rate and 61.3 passer rating when targeted.
It’s true that fellow cornerback Jaylon Johnson may spend some time covering Thielen, as well.
But Johnson is also having a strong season, allowing a 48.1 percent completion rate and 88.5 passer rating when targeted.
The Verdict
With Cook healthy, Thielen won’t get the attention from his offense that he needs to even have a chance of exceeding 50 receiving yards.
But Thielen will get attention from Chicago’s top cornerbacks, who will ensure that Thielen’s production is meagre.
Best Bet: Thielen Under 58.5 Yards at -114 with Bovada
Dalvin Cook
At Least 23 Carries
Focal Point
This bet builds off of the last one: Minnesota has no reason to rely on its outside receivers in this game.
I talked about Thielen. But fellow leading Viking wide receiver Justin Jefferson is also going to get a really tough match-up whether he squares off with Fuller or Johnson.
Those two wide receivers have combined for a total of 102 targets this season.
For comparison’s sake, tight end Kyle Rudolph has the third-highest number of targets for Minnesota with 19.
So when quarterback Kirk Cousins doesn’t look for Thielen or Jefferson, he has few options elsewhere. Cook is the top performer on the team, anyways.
Against a Chicago pass defense that ranks fourth in the NFL according to Football Outsider’s metrics, which account for opponent quality, Minnesota will want and need to run the ball primarily.
Opportunities
One of the biggest worries with a run-first team is that it falls behind on the scoreboard. When teams fall behind, they grow increasingly tempted to deviate from the ground game because they find the need to score more points in a hurry.
But Chicago’s offense is inept. The Bears rank 30th in points per game. Amid personnel problems, they also suffer flux in the coaching staff as a new play-caller will emerge tonight.
So Minnesota will always, at the very least, be in this game, and will therefore be able to keep handing the ball off to Cook.
Since returning from injury in the team’s past two games, Cook has amassed a total of 52 rush attempts. He only accrued 22 carries against Detroit because the Lions’ bottom-ranking run defense is so porous that Cook didn’t need to accrue more carries in order to have the performance that he did.
While Chicago has allowed top opposing running backs to have good days, its seventh-ranked run defense (per Football Outsiders) will yield enough resistance to Cook to prevent him from having too easy of a night on the ground.
Best Bet: Cook At Least 23 Carries at -105 with Bovada
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Monday, November 16, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Soldier Field in Chicago
Adam Thielen
Over/Under 58.5 Yards
Smaller Role
Wide receiver Adam Thielen has seen his role in Minnesota’s offense dwindle.
In each of his last three games, Thielen has received five or fewer targets.
In a high-scoring affair with Atlanta, Thielen caught five passes for 51 yards. Then things continued to go downhill from there.
Against the Packers, he caught three passes for 27 yards. In Minnesota’s last game, he caught two passes for 38 yards against Detroit.
So if he faced in each of those games today’s over/under in receiving yardage, he would be on an 0-3 under run.
Other Players
Thielen’s role has lessened while other teammates have played a bigger role.
Most notably, star running back Dalvin Cook is becoming ever more emphatically the central focus of the offense.
The Vikings owe their current two-game winning streak primarily to him. Against Green Bay, he had 33 touches. Against the Lions, he accrued 24 touches.
With him healthy and fit — he had missed a few games before his team played Green Bay — it’s hard to imagine Minnesota diverging from its renewed emphasis on Cook.
This last point is meaningful for Thielen because more touches for Cook will mean fewer opportunities for him.
Kyle Fuller
Even if Minnesota did, for whatever reason, want to look Thielen’s way, Thielen still merits little optimism.
His history against Chicago has been quite poor over a long period of time.
He’s faced Chicago 11 times. In those 11 games, he averages 2.7 receptions and 29.1 YPG.
With top cornerback Kyle Fuller harassing him, he won’t improve upon this career average tonight.
Fuller is allowing a ridiculously low 46.6 percent completion rate and 61.3 passer rating when targeted.
It’s true that fellow cornerback Jaylon Johnson may spend some time covering Thielen, as well.
But Johnson is also having a strong season, allowing a 48.1 percent completion rate and 88.5 passer rating when targeted.
The Verdict
With Cook healthy, Thielen won’t get the attention from his offense that he needs to even have a chance of exceeding 50 receiving yards.
But Thielen will get attention from Chicago’s top cornerbacks, who will ensure that Thielen’s production is meagre.
Best Bet: Thielen Under 58.5 Yards at -114 with Bovada
Dalvin Cook
At Least 23 Carries
Focal Point
This bet builds off of the last one: Minnesota has no reason to rely on its outside receivers in this game.
I talked about Thielen. But fellow leading Viking wide receiver Justin Jefferson is also going to get a really tough match-up whether he squares off with Fuller or Johnson.
Those two wide receivers have combined for a total of 102 targets this season.
For comparison’s sake, tight end Kyle Rudolph has the third-highest number of targets for Minnesota with 19.
So when quarterback Kirk Cousins doesn’t look for Thielen or Jefferson, he has few options elsewhere. Cook is the top performer on the team, anyways.
Against a Chicago pass defense that ranks fourth in the NFL according to Football Outsider’s metrics, which account for opponent quality, Minnesota will want and need to run the ball primarily.
Opportunities
One of the biggest worries with a run-first team is that it falls behind on the scoreboard. When teams fall behind, they grow increasingly tempted to deviate from the ground game because they find the need to score more points in a hurry.
But Chicago’s offense is inept. The Bears rank 30th in points per game. Amid personnel problems, they also suffer flux in the coaching staff as a new play-caller will emerge tonight.
So Minnesota will always, at the very least, be in this game, and will therefore be able to keep handing the ball off to Cook.
Since returning from injury in the team’s past two games, Cook has amassed a total of 52 rush attempts. He only accrued 22 carries against Detroit because the Lions’ bottom-ranking run defense is so porous that Cook didn’t need to accrue more carries in order to have the performance that he did.
While Chicago has allowed top opposing running backs to have good days, its seventh-ranked run defense (per Football Outsiders) will yield enough resistance to Cook to prevent him from having too easy of a night on the ground.
Best Bet: Cook At Least 23 Carries at -105 with Bovada
