Utah Utes O/U

[Two Utes]

It's been a few weeks and I'm still inactive on the wagering front but I saw it at 5.5. If it's still 5.5 I'm going to put a decent chunk on the over. I went through the schedule and I believe this is an 8-9 win team. Troy Taylor is going to pay dividends with the offense and the defense will be solid as usual.

 

[scarf31]

It's been a few weeks and I'm still inactive on the wagering front but I saw it at 5.5. If it's still 5.5 I'm going to put a decent chunk on the over. I went through the schedule and I believe this is an 8-9 win team. Troy Taylor is going to pay dividends with the offense and the defense will be solid as usual.

From your lips to God's ears, Utes. Must win game in week 2 IMO at BYU to get there. OC Troy and a change in offensive philosophy is surely an upgrade, but QB Troy I've got major concerns about with his consistency and passing accuracy.

Front 7 will be solid (again) as Whitt never lets that group slip too much and can recruit the hell out of those position players as he's proven year after year.

But inexperience at other offensive skill spots worries me, as does a potential slip in their special teams dominance (for which they have been absolutely phenomenal with the last 3 years.

Need to win at the Y and then deal with a brutal schedule and this bet cashes. Just hate how hard their road games are (BYU, Arizona, USC, Oregon and Washington) and how significantly different their play is when they play away from SLC.

That BYU game and the Arizona game are going to tell us a lot about this year's squad.

 

[Two Utes]

Very true, but I've penciled both of those games in as W's. I worry about TW at QB too but from what I've been reading the offense is so much more simplified and things are coming much more easy for him. I may be drinking the Kool Aid but I still think this team wins 8 games this year. The addition of Carrington is going to help this offense quite a bit as well. A true playmaker that may command double teams which is going to open things up in other parts of the field. I probably wouldn't be this bullish without the addition of him.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good info gents

 

[EFC1878]

Just hate how hard their road games are (BYU, Arizona, USC, Oregon and Washington) and how significantly different their play is when they play away from SLC.

That's actually one of the reasons I liked the Utah over. I don't think they beat any of the latter four (in my opinion the top four teams in the league this year) at home or away, so it's good that 3/4 are on the road so they have home field in the more coinflip-esque games. My reading of the schedule has six winnable home games (all but Stanford) and two winnable road games (Arizona and BYU). I expect them to beat North Dakota, SJSU, Colorado, ASU and Arizona, with toss-ups at home against UCLA and Wazzu, and at BYU.

All that being said, I waited too long and am now seeing either 6 or 6.5 (the latter at +115 at 5D right now). Gun to my head, I'd still play the over, but it went from a hard lean when I started capping to a "no play" once I actually started putting money down this past weekend.

 

[scarf31]

That's actually one of the reasons I liked the Utah over. I don't think they beat any of the latter four (in my opinion the top four teams in the league this year) at home or away, so it's good that 3/4 are on the road so they have home field in the more coinflip-esque games. My reading of the schedule has six winnable home games (all but Stanford) and two winnable road games (Arizona and BYU). I expect them to beat North Dakota, SJSU, Colorado, ASU and Arizona, with toss-ups at home against UCLA and Wazzu, and at BYU.

All that being said, I waited too long and am now seeing either 6 or 6.5 (the latter at +115 at 5D right now). Gun to my head, I'd still play the over, but it went from a hard lean when I started capping to a "no play" once I actually started putting money down this past weekend.

Good point about the last 4 road games being vs. the toughest P12 competitors, as I agree with you that those are 4 of the 5 toughest in the league. (I think Wazzou is going to be a nightmare for the league's elites as their DC is the most underrated in the country IMO and Falk is no slouch in how he runs Leach's offense...wouldn't be surprised to see WSU in the title game TBH as my biggest sleeper of the year team).

Here's the only thing that as an alum, capper and fan I cannot get out of my head with this season bet...I call it the AYFKM factor. (Are You Fucking Kidding Me) Factor. The Utes have had this absolutely disturbing trend of losing a home game where all you can say afterword is "Are You Fucking Kidding Me?"

These are the home losses

2016: Oregon (at the point of the year that every Duck had all but put on Twitter they quit for the year)
2015: UCLA (in a home game where they controlled their destiny after a brutal 2OT loss to DickRod the week prior)
2014: Washington State (I still don't know how they pissed this one away)
2013: UCLA (in a game Travis Wilson threw SIX interceptions)
2012: USC (in a game they jumped out 14-0 then let Marquise Lee bitch slap them like he was their daddy getting 12/192)
2011: Arizona State (losing the TO battle 5-0 in a rout to a 6-6 team at home)

My point is that I'm factoring in one of these games this year...I hope I'm wrong, but the Utes find a way to give you a home head scratcher way too often. IMO, they need to be 4-0 after September for them to get to 7/8 wins. The October and November schedule is absolutely brutal in my mind.

 

[KJ]

Pac12 South is gonna be insane imo, hard to predict much

 

[Two Utes]

I agree with the WTF home loss each year. Arod was one of the most predictable OC's on the planet and Utah still had quite a bite of success, I'm planning on this offense at least having a pulse. If the current number is 6.5 that definitely makes it a little harder to pull the trigger as this is a very tough schedule.

 

[scarf31]

After watching that debacle, I immediately thought of this thread. That was the WTF loss and this one is on the head coach. Calling time out to allow Washington to drive the field to beat you in regulation when they were conceding OT is asinine. Especially when you have 2 backups filling in on your defense. Throwing up 7 in 2nd and 2 and not making Washington burn its last time out is asinine.

This is a heartbreaking loss because those kids played their asses off. Huntley (if he can ever stay healthy) is special. Just sickened to see Whit do something so stupid as to not at least give his kids the chance for an OT where They’re guaranteed the ball.

 

[s--k]

Just awful. Utah pulled out all the stops to try and get this win tonight. And then their coach does something like that. If you are Washington you know that Utah is expecting you to just run the ball again and try and kill the clock so then Utah will call their final timeout after 2nd down. So if you are Washington, do something unexpected, like a nice deep out that the DBs won't be ready for and boom you're in business thank you very much Utah for calling that timeout.

It's not like they had 3. Then it is still risky, but different. They had 2. No way do you call a timeout there.

Utah could've lost in OT, we'll never know. But what a disservice that was to every player on that team tonight.

It's exactly why most coaches don't do that. And even on O, when you have announcers sometimes begging a team to call a timeout or hurry up. Announcers don't know shit. The good coaches know clock management and end of half/scenarios. The bad ones don't. We saw one of the bad ones tonight.