Underrated/Overrated Teams To Start The Season

[Gorgolon Lives]

The first few weeks of the NBA season involve finding value in the "new" teams that Vegas has yet to figure out. Our job is to find the value before Vegas catches on. I've been quoted many teams saying "oddsmakers are some of the most knowledgeable people in the world", but they aren't superhuman.

The following is a list of teams that I think will be under/over valued in terms of spread or total for the first few weeks. I'll provide some short reasons and answer any questions before the end of the week.


Undervalued ATS Teams:

New Orleans Hornets: Healthy to start the year. This team plays hard every night, and that comes from their leader, Paul, who is a top 5 PG in the NBA. Peja is back healthy and Mo Peterson has been added. Paul driving and dishing to 2 of the league's premier 3pt shooters. David West is coming off a career year, and he'll challenge for an all-star spot in the loaded WC. Chandler is a rebounding monster, who is also coming off a huge year. Add to that a group of young bench players who will surely play their asses off to battle for minutes, and you have a potentially Top 5 team in the WC. They should murder Sacramento and Portland (Possibly the 2 worst teams in the West). Both those games will have spreads under 10. Then they go on the road to Denver and the Lakers where we could get this team +6 points in each game. That's value!

New Jersey Nets: I love all the Boston and Chicago talk in the East, as the Nets quietly sneak under the radar. Krstic returns, and the the big 3 are all back. The emergence of the youngsters Boone, Williams, Wright, and Nachbar PLUS the addition of Magloire (who will likely finish games at the 4 spot for Frank), gives the Nets their deepest team in the Frank era. Carter and Kidd know their time together is running out, so they will be determined to take advantage of this loaded roster THIS YEAR. The Nets start the season off with a few big inter-conference games AT HOME (Bulls, Raptors, Wizards, and Boston). I got a feeling there might be value in ALL of those games.


Overvalued ATS Teams:

Golden State Warriors: Teams have plenty of tape on the Warriors now. Last season, they caught many teams off-guard by overhauling the entire roster. The Warriors were a HUGE public team to finish 06-07, and Vegas will likely cash in on square backers to start this season. I thought this team needed to add a big man who could rebound and defend. They added the rookie Wright, who likely won't contribute much early on. And they added Croshere who is nothing special. I still think they have some major weaknesses in those areas. Home games vs. Utah, Cavs, Dallas, and Detroit might give us some short lines on superior road fav's to start the year.

New York Knicks: Lots of talk with the addition of Randolph, but this team is still filled with trash ego's. The Knicks open the season with some home games against inferior opponents. I can see them being 4-1 to start the year, and then they go out West for an early trip. We could have some serious value playing against the Knicks on this trip. Circle Nov 14 and 17 on your calendar and take the home teams.


Early Total Mistakes:

Memphis Grizzlies: Last year this team was an Over monster, but the addition of Milicic will slow this team down. Add to that a new starting PG in Lowry and a rookie back up PG in Conley Jr running this team, and we will see some early confusion on Offense. Bet Grizzlies UNDERS to start the year. Nov 7 and 9 stand out. We will likely see both totals over 200. I'll be on the UNDERS there.

Houston Rockets: JVG is gone, and this offense will certainly open up under Adelman. Franchise and Scola are two new additions in the starting line-up. They both bring more offense and less defense than the players they replaced. The first 4 games all have OVER potential. The opening game in LA on 10/30 will certainly be an OVER play. I'll add that if this team stays healthy (And I don't think they will), they could finally overtake the big 3 in the West.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

Great post Believe, I agree with everything except I'll hesitate to bet against the Knicks until we see how they come out this year; they've got a lot of potential but normally waste it, so I see where you're coming from.

Their front court of Lee, Randolph, and Curry would dominate on any other team, and they've got big energy guys in Balkman and Robinson. They've got some really good pieces, so it's scary to bet against them early, and I'm a little worried that these guys bring it together to save Thomas' job.

Hopefully I'll have something like this in a couple days, nice job.

 

[Joe Public]

I'd think you're going to get higher spreads on the Celtics to start off with as well, right?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Great post Believe, I agree with everything except I'll hesitate to bet against the Knicks until we see how they come out this year; they've got a lot of potential but normally waste it, so I see where you're coming from.

Their front court of Lee, Randolph, and Curry would dominate on any other team, and they've got big energy guys in Balkman and Robinson. They've got some really good pieces, so it's scary to bet against them early, and I'm a little worried that these guys bring it together to save Thomas' job.

Hopefully I'll have something like this in a couple days, nice job.

Thanks. I definitely won't play against them to begin the year in these first 5 games:

At Cavs
Vs Twolves
Vs Nuggets
Vs Magic
Vs Heat

I think they lose either at Cavs or vs Nuggets. And I think the other 4 games are winnable. Then they go on a VERY early west coast swing including 2 games in b2b situations -- At Phx, then b2b at Clips, at Sac, then b2b at Denver. They will get crushed at Phx. If they enter that game at 4-1, we could see a short line around 7 or 8. I like the Clips to hammer them the next day at another possible undervalued line. They likely will beat Sac, but I love Denver the next day especially if the Knicks beat the Nuggets at home in the 1st meeting.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'd think you're going to get higher spreads on the Celtics to start off with as well, right?

Boston has looked good early, and we will probably see some higher spreads early. They have the corps talent to have a good year, but I don't think they are deep enough to compete with the good teams. Looking at game 2 on Nov 4, they go to Toronto. They likely will be a road fav...I'll guess around 3.5 or 4. Toronto could be a nice value play. A game I'm circling is Nov 10 at New Jersey. Boston will be off a b2b against an Atlanta bunch who will likely speed that game up. I like the Nets to crush Boston there on a short line.

 

[tuck321]

Would have to say we disagree a lot. The only team we strongly agree on is GS. I love Scott the coach of the Hornets but except for Tyson and Paul who are already factored in see a very average team. They do have character which is a lot but Peja and health is not something I would count on. I see Portland and the Kings as 2 teams that will move up substantially this year. Both teams have good coaching and wealthy owners who support the teams and will spend freely. Both these teams have real talent. The Kings died with bad coaching last year. Its a new year and a better coach.
The Nets do have talent but I see them as a little too old. Steve Nash is a top point guard who is 33 but he weighs 178 pounds. Kidd is 35 and weighs 210 pounds. He has not played in the preseason because of his health. He has never been a good shooter and I just am skeptical. Vince is 30 and over 200. The Suns have tremendous talent and are major winners and they are light. Go thru the team and look at their weights. I am not sold on Boston, Chicago or even Toronto but it would not surprise me if one of them did dominate. In any case GL

 

[SF_capper]

shhh Nov 2. Dallas at home against Sac. Will be one of those public plays with Dallas ends up winning by 20+ with the ending line like 6 points from the open. Its Josh Howard's first game back from the little suspension and Dallas feels the suspension was unjustified esp since Miller got nothing. Redemption

 

[SF_capper]

as far as overrated teams I agree Warriors will be good fades early on.. unfortunately. Still dunno the starting 5, only thing for sure is Baron is starting point guard. anything else can change- thus confusion and noncovers.

I kinda feel Boston will be similiar to NFL's Pats. Overhyped and justifiably so, probably covering a couple big spreads, becoming public whores, then eventually lose SU in the upper competitions.

Overrated teams I imagine will be Miami as well. They are too slow to keep up with running teams, and cannot guard good centers, esp on a b2b. so their second game will be against Indiana on a b2b after Miami. If J O'neal is in, good bet on Nov 2. Then on the 9th against Phoenix at home will probably get under double digits in what will be a DD blow

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

only thing for sure is Baron is starting point guard.

That, too, will most likely change in about a month.

 

[Killa]

Cleveland should be hugely overvalued. That team is done.

 

[jimbo1227]

response to tuck, portland and sacramento r the two biggest garbage teams this year. they r just absolutely pathetic and wins will be few and far between for those hoes. new orleans is definately a team to watch, they might have one of the best home court advantages in the west along with golden st.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Cleveland should be hugely overvalued. That team is done.

I would say "somewhat" overrated. Not hugely. They've added no one to last year's roster (And EVERYONE saw that team's terrible play in the Finals), and all the East rankings I've seen have them in the middle of the pack (kinda where most people on here have them). They open up at home vs. the Mavs. I'm thinking we see Dallas as a 4-4.5 point favorite. Now they SHOULD lose that game, so the next game vs. New York might see the Cavs as an over-valued favorite. I have Cleveland opening the year at 0-5. Then they go to Sac-town on Nov. 9, and that should be a blow-out win.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

response to tuck, portland and sacramento r the two biggest garbage teams this year. they r just absolutely pathetic and wins will be few and far between for those hoes. new orleans is definately a team to watch, they might have one of the best home court advantages in the west along with golden st.

Aside from Mikki Moore, Sac has added no one to that aging roster from last season. On top of that, Artest and Bibby's name will be coming up in trades all year.

If Portland had Oden, I'd say they would be fine. They are just too young to make an impact this year, especially out West.

 

[Seabass]

I enjoyed reading this thread. I think new Orleans is a good team to look at on undervalued-IMO, they were undervalued early on last year, as well. No, they don't have a ton of marquee players, but when you have a marquee PG it is amazing how well things tend to fall into place.

On overvalued ATS, I don't think that GSW is going to be valued like a playoff finalist, so I don't really think they will be that overvalued. We'll see, obviously. I do think they will struggle early and often.

The Cavaliers should be downright terrible with no supporting cast to King James early on. If they are only a dog by a few points early on I will like Dallas in that tilt.

As for Memphis, yes, those two guys are rookies, but they also like to play at a breakneck pace. If they make a ton of turnovers, that might hinder Memphis's O, but it will probably cause some easy buckets on the other side. I think if they get into a game against a team like GSW or Phoenix, you can't set the total high enough. Essentially, Memphis might be one of those teams that goes under against the low scoring teams, and over with the high scoring teams...

 

[Seabass]

Aside from Mikki Moore, Sac has added no one to that aging roster from last season. On top of that, Artest and Bibby's name will be coming up in trades all year.

If Portland had Oden, I'd say they would be fine. They are just too young to make an impact this year, especially out West.

Portland hasn't really gotten much worse than last year, though, and last year they did show some considerable fight in a few games. I think they might be alright. Do I mean .500 alright? No, not that good. But I think they are a nice team to bet on when they come up in a nice situation at home...

 

[jimbo1227]

no doubt seabass. last year they definately had som hard fought games, especially at home, which created many back doors. i think they were one of the best double digit underdogs ATS last year.

 

[JPicks]

Portland November 7th.

 

[Inspekdah]

NO is undervalued. Plus, they play hard and give you a much more college type feel to how they go about covering spreads. Over the past few years at times they have had amazing ATS/SU results. Meaning, if they lose... they don't cover and if they win... they cover the #... to me that shows a team that doesn't quit and when they are on... and they have the shooters now... they can be lethal. Paul is going to get better and should be 100% healthy... he is a top 5 PG and we cannot just write them off as being a subpar team because they have only him and Chandler. Chandler is the best defensive big man in the league now... and they have a cast built between them including a ton of shooters and underrated, but often injured David West. The question with them is how they will play on their new (but old) homecourt in NO. They played hard with a JV basketball team at home last year and often covered as a dog there. They seem to lose at home to great teams... but will beat the average to above average team (Wash, for instance) at home with a small number.

Fade - Washington on the road... early... especially after a big home win.

Fade - Seattle at home... you'll see the small #s but this team has no leadership... will play some of the worst defense in the league and has questions all around them about where they are going to be next year...

FADE - My Bulls when they go on the circus tour. They lose like 80% of these games ATS.

I agree that the Cavs are overrated... if you see a wagerline with them on the road attempting to cover a small #... the odds are they are damned. This has been a profitable spot for me since the beginning of the Lebron era.

GSW- This team started out hot or at least decent last season....then tailspinned for awhile. If they are shooting well they will cover... if not.. they won't. I see a very strong SU/ATS win/loss correlation with this team.

Hawks at home... early... like them... just like last year... then fade them after a big win... when they hit the road.

Kings - Not sure about their "good" coaching yet. This team needs an offensive mind to take advantage of their poor defensive skill sets. It's no secret Artest/Bibby don't mix well. Their offense looked horrible at times last year. A healthy Brad Miller could change all that...

Rockets & Unders - I don't know why Adlemen coming in would have anyone believe they will score less. Lines will be adjusted for the more upstart offense... so I'm not saying they will cover one way or the other... but I expect more offense... this isn't a coach who will drown them away in a half court offense every possession. Gundy lost his job cause of that... look for when Yao sits for them to run a small lineup and really get out and run.

 

[MX_259]

Underated in the Eastern Conference

Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls are going to have many weapons offensively to work with, if they can improve defensively they should be very powerful in the Eastern conference. And should have the best in eastern conference games records amongst the eastern conference teams. I like Toronto to be there with them, but I give Chicago the edge.

 

[MX_259]

Boston Celtics may be overated in the NBA as a whole. Fortunately for them they are in the Eastern Conference so they should do alright. We have all seen many three all-star combinations on a team at once, I think this is the best one I have seen so far. Ray Allen is not a greedy ball player, at all. As a matter of fact when he played for Milwuakee I would get so pissed because he wouldn't take the game over. Anyways, that is only going to mix perfect with Paul Peirce who will be able to control his game and when in trouble can dish out to a deadly shooter in Allen. Garnett is one of the best in the league down low. Now if he can't take care of business himself he will have not one, but two clutch options, something he has been dreaming of. I know this combination will do fine but they need two other players to be able to play at this level along with a sixth man to come from the bench. With that chemistry this team is a contender in the Western Confernce, and that says alot.

This team will be overated and underated at times this year, I think there should be some nice gifts involved along the way.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Underated in the Eastern Conference

Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls are going to have many weapons offensively to work with, if they can improve defensively they should be very powerful in the Eastern conference. And should have the best in eastern conference games records amongst the eastern conference teams. I like Toronto to be there with them, but I give Chicago the edge.

I think this is the first year the Bulls are actually expected to make the finals. A majority of the predictions I see have them either winning the East or making the Eastern finals.

 

[Inspekdah]

Toronto was exposed in the playoffs last year. Bosh is not a goto clutch player... and you can't just surround him with above average European players. I like this team to make the playoffs for the next 10 years.. and win aboout 2-3 series... combined

 

[reNew Orleans]

NO is undervalued. Plus, they play hard and give you a much more college type feel to how they go about covering spreads. Over the past few years at times they have had amazing ATS/SU results. Meaning, if they lose... they don't cover and if they win... they cover the #... to me that shows a team that doesn't quit and when they are on... and they have the shooters now... they can be lethal. Paul is going to get better and should be 100% healthy... he is a top 5 PG and we cannot just write them off as being a subpar team because they have only him and Chandler. Chandler is the best defensive big man in the league now... and they have a cast built between them including a ton of shooters and underrated, but often injured David West. The question with them is how they will play on their new (but old) homecourt in NO. They played hard with a JV basketball team at home last year and often covered as a dog there. They seem to lose at home to great teams... but will beat the average to above average team (Wash, for instance) at home with a small number.

all you need is me in the stands

 

[abcs]

I just saw this thread and Chris Paul is not a top 5 point guard!

 

[Inspekdah]

He's better than every PG in the league with the exception of Nash, and perhaps a playoff version of Kidd.

He's played with garbage and pushes them almost in the playoffs each year... playing through injuries and what not. He simply cannot be guarded... and just last year he was being compared early on to being as dominant at the PG as Magic Johnson.

Remember, being a good PG takes time... and he's already an elite one. By far the most difficult position... Kidd, Nash... etc. weren't even close to being on this kid's level this early.

 

[sportjunky]

I've got Paul at # 6 behind Chauncey, Nash, Baron, Deron and Kidd.

 

[abcs]

Give me Tony Parker.. way to leave the nba final mvp off the list

 

[abcs]

How can you put Chris Paul up there with the top guards with that fg %?

 

[abcs]

He's better than every PG in the league with the exception of Nash, and perhaps a playoff version of Kidd.

He's played with garbage and pushes them almost in the playoffs each year... playing through injuries and what not. He simply cannot be guarded... and just last year he was being compared early on to being as dominant at the PG as Magic Johnson.

Remember, being a good PG takes time... and he's already an elite one. By far the most difficult position... Kidd, Nash... etc. weren't even close to being on this kid's level this early.

Its a show me league. Big deal he almost made the playoffs. Deron led his team to the playoffs and did work. Tony Parker averaged 20+ and won a chip. Its an injustice to them to say Paul is better since he almost led a team to the playoffs.. especially when their record was 4 games under .500

 

[tuck321]

Tony? Tony----Oh him. He might belong. Although seriously he may have some trouble as his knack of carrying the ball started getting called last year. Still a tremendous talent who has to be in the top 3.

 

[Seabass]

cmon, Tony Parkers supporting cast and Chris Paul's supporting cast aren't even in the same stratosphere.

Paul is a great PG. Top 5 is hard to quantify because it depends what you are looking for-would Detroit be better with Paul at the point? No, I don't think so. But I think that New Orleans would be worse off with Billups at the point instead of Paul, too.

And its funny to see how quickly people swing the advantage to Deron Williams after dogging him for so long...

 

[abcs]

Who dogged Deron? I liked him more before the draft..

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

1. Nash
2. Parker
3. Paul
4. Arenas
5. Billups
6. D. Williams
7. B. Davis
8. Kidd
9. Ford
10. ?

 

[tuck321]

Just on numbers Arenas last year 6 assists and 3.2 turnovers. Career 5.5 and 3.3. Biillups last year 7.2 assists and 2 turnovers. Career 5.3 and 2. He should be ranked higher as a Point Guard. The scoring is something of a steal from Peter and pay Paul situation. I suspect Gilbert probably leaves for more money next year and possibly Washington becomes a real team. If Billups left Detroit would suffer greatly.