Performify's (Quick) Picks for UFC Fight Night 18
Apologies in advance for the lack of a full card breakdown. For those looking for an excellent introduction to the entire fight card, please allow me to direct you to Steve Sievert's excellent
UFC Fight Night 18 Preview.
This card presents only two solid wagering opportunies, in my opinion, and I didn't want to waste your time breaking down the nine other fights only to say "no bet recommended" for each. As such, here are my thoughts on the only two fights I think are worth betting at the current market lines.
Results of 2-3 for +1.66 units on UFC 96 brings the running total for my public predictions since UFC 75 to 76-57 for +30.285 units.
As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook,
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Carlos Condit (-120) vs. Martin Kampmann (-110)
Carlos Condit (22-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC) makes his long-awaited UFC debut after reigning as the WEC's welterweight champion for the past two years. Condit is well-rounded but primarily a grappler, and he currently trains at Arizona Combat Sports alongside C.B. Dollaway, among others. Condit is riding an eight-fight win streak, which he will put on the line against well-regarded Danish fighter Martin Kampmann (14-2 MMA, 5-1 UFC).
Kampmann began his career primarily as a kickboxer but has evolved into a truly well-rounded mixed martial artist. Kampmann has won 10 fights since 2005, with his only loss in that stretch to the perennially underrated Nate Marquardt. After losing to Marquardt, Kampmann left the middleweight division, making his welterweight debut in a January fight against Alexandre Barros at UFC 93.
Condit is well-regarded and shows up on many top-10 lists at welterweight. However, in my opinion, I believe he's being overvalued here. Condit's succes in the WEC is not the same as success in the upper eschelon of the UFC. He lacks the elite-level wrestling skills that most of the other top UFC welterweights possess - although the move to Arizona Combat Sports should develop his talent in that area. Despite having fantastic jiu-jitsu skills, and occasionally demonstrating some flashy judo throws, I believe that Condit hasn't typically demonstrated the type of takedown abilitiies that will be necessary to deal with the well-rounded strong wrestlers who comprise the 170-pound division in the UFC.
As such, I believe this fight is going to be surprisingly one-sided. While Condit has well-rounded skills, he's eclipsed by Kampmann in the areas where it's going to matter for this fight: Kampmann should be able to significantly edge Condit on the feet, and should have the edge in wrestling skills to keep the fight standing and neutralize Condit's jiu-jitsu by keeping the fight standing. If the fight does hit the ground, Kampmann has solid jiu-jitsu skills, including a solid defensive guard. While Condit will have a significant edge if the fight does go to the floor, I believe that Kampmann can do enough damage to finish the fight standing well before the fight goes to the mat - and he has the jiu-jitsu abilities to avoid flash submissions if the fight hits the ground.
I think the current odds are significantly mispriced. Condit deserves a lot of credit for his skills, but he still needs to prove his ability on the larger stage. His WEC title and his record are being a bit overvalued here, and therefore Kampmann makes for a solid play. Condit is certainly scrappy enough to drag this to decision even if he's getting beaten badly, but I believe Kampmann can accumulate enough damage to get the referee to stop the fight at some point. Martin Kampmann by TKO in the third round after one-sided first and second rounds.
Kampmann actually opened as a moderate underdog at +155, an absolutely errant line. Bettors (myself included) quickly jumped on, betting the fight down to the current level. Still, Kampmann is worth a multi-unit play at the current odds.
Junie Browning (+115) vs. Cole Miller (-140)
"The Ultimate Fighter" clown-prince Junie Browning (3-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) holds a Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt under Mike O'Donnell. Now training under Shawn Tompkins at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, Browning has been given significant credit for the improvements he showcased in defeating Dave Kaplan at The Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale. I'm not sold: I certainly believe that training at Xtreme Couture has improved his game, but I don't believe Browning is as skilled as he's being hyped based on the performance. A showcase fight against Kaplan (2-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is not the same thing as demonstrating significant improvement in the cage against a top-tier opponent.
Cole Miller (14-3 MMA, 3-1 UFC) holds a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Ricardo Liborio and is a multiple time NAGA grappling champion. Miller has an edge in every aspect of this fight: he holds a signifcant reach advantage and should be able to keep Browning at bay. Look for Browning to be stymied in a one-sided first round and then lose control in the second, falling back on wild haymakers and dumping what's left of his gas tank, resulting in Miller taking the fight to the ground and easily finishing a frustrated Browning. Cole Miller by submission in the second round.
This line also opened significantly mispriced, and has moved 35 cents from an opening line of -105 to the current level of -140. Still, as with the Kampmann line, this fight is still significantly mispriced and worth a multi-unit play.
Performify's Picks for UFC Fight Night 18
- Martin Kampmann -115: 2.3 units to win 2 units
- Cole Miller -140: 2.8 units to win 2 units
