Performify's Picks for "UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson"
On the heels of some of the most anticipated fights in UFC history, UFC 95 might not look like the greatest card on paper.
However, I think there are several interesting and important fights on here, including fights that could establish potential contenders at middleweight, heavyweight and lightweight
Results of 2-3 for +2.5 units on UFC 94 brings the running total for my public predictions since UFC 75 to 70-54 for +23.425 units. I think I was obviously on the right side of Dong Hyun Kim at +260 despite losing the close split decision there and was overall very happy with my results.
As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook,
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Joe Stevenson (+255) vs. Diego Sanchez (-315)
Continuing what Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans started with their battle at UFC 92, the "other" winners from the first two seasons of "The Ultimate Fighter" reality show face off here, as season-two welterweight winner Joe Stevenson (29-9 MMA, 6-3 UFC) takes on season-one middleweight winner Diego Sanchez (19-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC).
Stevenson desperately wants to regain contender status after falling short in a bid for the belt against B.J. Penn at UFC 80 and falling further down the ladder after losing to Kenny Florian at UFC 91. He faces long odds as a heavy underdog in this fight.
Stevenson is a Marc Laimon disciple and recently opened his own gym under Laimon's Cobra Kai brand in Victorville, Calif. "Joe Daddy" is primarily a strong wrestler with growing BJJ skills; in November he received his Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt from Robert Drysdale, who is a skilled grappler and trains at Xtreme Couture. Drysdale's credentials include winning the 2007 Abu-Dhabi Absolute Division Championship, but despite the recent promotion from such an esteemed source, Stevenson didn't look like a black belt while delivering a poor performance on the ground in his most recent match against Florian.
As a fighter, Stevenson is compact, powerful and explosive. His best weapon -- outside of his guillotine choke -- is his top game, where he can utilize his wrestling skills and punish opponents with powerful elbows. His striking is still progressing; while he's shown decent speed and power for his size, he hasn't yet developed into an elite striker and really depends on his guillotine and his wrestling top game to win fights. His lack of well-roundedness has resulted in being outclassed in his recent fights, whether that was on the feet against Penn or being put on his back by Florian
In fact, in his most recent fight against Florian, Stevenson was generally outclassed from the opening bell. Florian scored an early takedown, eventually passed guard to full mount, and won via rear naked choke with about a minute left in the first round. You've heard the maxim that all BJJ black belts are not created equal, and while Stevenson has a skilled set of trainers, he's still got a lot to prove on the ground.
Sanchez, meanwhile, makes his debut at lightweight after an extensive and successful early career at welterweight (and after competing in "TUF" at middleweight). Sanchez won his first 17 professional fights before dropping a unanimous decision to Josh Koscheck at UFC 69. This first loss was clouded by an extremely poor performance, primarily blamed upon a significant underlying medical condition (he was almost forced to pull out of the fight due to doctors' inability to diagnose his problems, and only after the fight was it discovered he had an extremely serious staph infection). The three-inch hole in his leg that opened up the day after the fight shows the serious nature of the infection, and it has to be taken in to strong consideration when evaluating his loss to Koscheck.
Once he had healed, Sanchez quickly took a very tough fight against top welterweight contender Jon Fitch. Fitch's dominant wrestling skills were able to fend off a constant array of submission attempts, and Sanchez ended up losing a split decision.
Since dropping the two consecutive fights, Sanchez has rebounded with consecutive wins over David Bielkheden at UFC 82 and Luigi Fioravanti at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale. And I expect he'll make it three in a row by taking out Stevenson here.
Sanchez holds a black belt in Greg Jackson's Gaidojutsu and a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Saulo Ribeiro (who, like the Gracies, is notorious for extremely tough criteria for belt promotions). Despite only holding the purple belt to Stevenson's black belt, I believe Sanchez actually holds a rather significant grappling edge in this fight. He'll also have a decent reach advantage, which will be further compounded by his superior ability to effectively mix in kicks and knees to his striking.
The only legitimate concern in this fight, in my opinion, is the fact that we are seeing Sanchez fight at 155 pounds for the first time in his MMA career. While he may have wrestled at 152 in high school (winning the state championship his senior year), it is still a steep drop; Sanchez said he has dropped 38 pounds since Christmas Eve. That's going to be the only factor that keeps me from loading up on this fight, as I think other than the weight concerns, Sanchez should be able to outclass Stevenson much in the same ways as Penn and Florian.
Look for Sanchez to frustrate Stevenson on the feet early, winning the exchanges with effective combinations and balanced striking to counter Stevenson's over-dependence on short quick power punches. I expect Sanchez's size and superior grappling skill should be able to keep the fight standing if he wishes, and he should be able to put Stevenson on his back in transitions and should be able to threaten significantly with submissions if Stevenson gets on top.
Sanchez can finish the fight with strikes or via submission, especially a submission set up by strikes. Stevenson conversely doesn't have a high probability of finishing his opponent unless he can land the guillotine during a transition (and I'm sure that Sanchez's camp will have him well-drilled at avoiding the signature Joe Daddy submission). His most clear path to victory is a decision win (a la Jon Fitch) if he can keep Sanchez on his back and fend off the myriad of submission attempts sure to follow. After all, Sanchez wasn't stopped in 19 welterweight fights, so it's a stretch to think that Stevenson wins with any significant probability except via decision.
The current odds put Sanchez as a 75% favorite to win the fight, and I think that is the appropriate ballpark. Without concerns about the first time weight cut, I think Sanchez would be closer to an 85% favorite and represent a solid edge. As it stands, with only a moderate edge, I think this is worth a small play on Sanchez, and I can't argue with those electing to stay away from this fight.
I know some people are attracted to the long odds on Stevenson as an underdog, but I don't really like that play here. Sanchez presents a poor stylistic matchup, and I think Stevenson has been generally overrated (from a gambling perspective, not as a person) since the exposure from his "TUF" days in which he won over a relatively thin field. Marcus Davis' later progression and subsequent success not withstanding (he was a much different fighter on "TUF"), the welterweight bracket for Stevenson's crowning was extremely thin; other than Davis and Stevenson, not one of the rest of the eight welterweight competitors is still with the UFC. In fact, none of the rest even developed winning records in the organization. Not to mention that Stevenson's resume really doesn't contain a quality win over a class of opponent anywhere near the level of Sanchez, in my opinion.
I predict Sanchez by TKO in the second round after a dominating first.
Dan Hardy (-105) vs. Rory Markham (-115)
No offense to either fighter, as I very much understand it's not their doing, but it is absolutely criminal that this fight is being promoted as the co-main event. I understand the UFC's desire to pump up U.K. fighter Dan Hardy (20-6 MMA, 1-0 UFC) to local fans to promote the development of the sport across the pond. However, no matter how much this matchup of two men who like to strike is expected to impress, Hardy facing off against Rory Markham (16-4 MMA, 1-0 UFC) doesn't remotely deserve co-main event status, not with top-tier contenders Marquardt and Josh Koscheck also fighting on the card, not to mention that the stellar fight of Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen languishes several spots lower on the card. Still, I hope Hardy and Markham live up to the billing and this comes through with the Fight of the Night honors as many pundits are predicting.
Hardy, who made his octagon debut in October with a split-decision win over Akihiro Gono at UFC 89, is now 9-1 in his past 10 fights, with his only loss a disqualification to Yoshiyuki Yoshida in Cage Force in late 2007. He's a speedy and technical striker who holds a black belt in tae kwon do and blue belt in jiu jitsu under Eddie Bravo, so be ready for Joe Rogan's usual adulations of the superiority of the rubber guard (hey, I'm a believer too, so I can't argue) in the unlikely event this fight hits the ground.
Markham, a Miletich fighter, is also a striker, but more of a brawler than a technician. Markham made his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 14 in July, knocking out Brodie Farber with a highlight-reel head kick. Despite what we saw against Farber, Markham primarily likes to fight inside. He'll be forced to do so against Hardy, who will hold a moderate reach advantage in the fight and a definite advantage in tactical striking prowess.
Look for Hardy to work from range and frustrate Markham from distance with superior technical striking en route to a unanimous-decision victory. If Hardy is smart, he won't sit in the pocket and trade with Markham since Markham's power can certainly put Hardy to sleep if he lets himself get drawn into a sloppy toe-to-toe mess. In fact, don't be surprised if Hardy can use Markham's aggressiveness moving forward to set up a takedown, where his superior jiu-jitsu skills should give him an even more noticeable edge.
Unless Hardy lets the distractions of publicity, the co-main event pressure, or the crowd's guaranteed overwhelming support get to him and draw him into a sloppy brawl, I think he wins this fight at least 60% of the time, making him an excellent bet at the current odds.
After all, Markham lost two fights in the IFL in the past two years, both TKO losses, first to Chris Wilson (14-5) and second to Brett Cooper (8-4). In that same stretch, Hardy is essentially undefeated against similar levels of talent and even has a win over UFC veteran Chad "The Grinder" Reiner. Markham's power is certainly a threat, and there's a lot of potential variance here as a result; however, Hardy should have a moderate edge, and I like him quite a bit at the current odds. Still, remember this is a high volatility play; even if I'm right and Hardy is a good play, he's still going to lose at least 40% of the time.
Markham line via Bookmaker.
Nate Marquardt (-275) vs. Wilson Gouveia (+250)
Team Jackson fighter Nate "The Great" Marquardt (27-8-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC) is an elite-level grappler with a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under elite teacher Ricardo Murgel. Marquardt's resume is filled with several impressive titles but none more so than his position as the only fighter to be crowned King of Pancrase seven times in Japan, eclipsing the accomplishments of other Pancrase champions such as Bas Rutten, Ken Shamrock, Frank Shamrock, Guy Mezger and Japanese icons Masakatsu Funaki and Minoru Suzuki.
Marquardt's UFC record is marred by only a defeat at the hands of Anderson Silva (nothing to be ashamed of, certainly) and a controversial split-decision loss to Thales Leites at UFC 85. In that fight, Marquardt was deducted two points, the second was especially controversial as he was deducted for a marginal elbow strike supposedly to the back of the head without any significant warning. And yet Marquardt still won the fight on one judge's card despite the point deductions, but he lost a split decision due to the of the other two judges who saw the fight with the deductions for Leites.
And before people argue the point, Marquardt did not perform an illegal "pile driver" foul in the fight for which he was not called; Nevada Athletic Commission rules section 467.7962 clearly indicates that "spiking an opponent to the canvas on his head or neck" is a foul. However Marquardt did not spike Leites on his head or neck. Leites extended his arms and landed on his forearms first, which by definition does not constitute an illegal spike.
Gouveia (12-5 MMA, 6-2 UFC) holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu but is equally comfortable striking with his heavy hands. Gouveia trains with American Top Team in Florida alongside fellow Brazilians Marcus Aurelio and Thiago Alves. This is Gouveia's third fight at middleweight after dropping down from light heavyweight. However he obviously hasn't gotten comfortable at 185 yet since he couldn't make weight in his most recent fight. Gouveia dropped down after suffering his second defeat at 205, a second-round TKO to Goran Reljic at UFC 84. Since then, Gouveia has won two straight by submitting Ryan Jensen at UFC Fight Night 15 and forcing Jason MacDonald to tap to strikes at The Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale. Gouveia didn't make weight for the fight, coming it at 189, and that was only two months ago, in mid-December.
Gouveia has a definite edge in power, and their jiu-jitsu skills are generally a wash (with a slight edge to Marquardt on overall pedigree). However Marquardt has the edge essentially most everywhere else in this fight. Marquardt's top game is phenomenal, and so is his submission defense. His wrestling and takedowns are extremely strong, and his striking is technical and accurate. He has excellent cardio, an area that Gouveia has traditionally struggled. Gouveia says he's in the best shape he's ever been in, but he's never demonstrated the ability to put more than a full round of cardio together without gassing, so I'm still skeptical that the "best he's been" will be good enough. Additionally, he's got the great Greg Jackson giving him an edge in both the pre-fight game plan and the in-fight adjustments.
I know a lot of people are picking Gouveia as a decent underdog here primarily due to the power in his hands. While there's no question Gouveia does have a better-than-average "puncher's chance" due to his power, that's not necessarily enough to make him a good bet on its own, especially when you look deeper at Marquardt's long career.
Marquardt has almost never been stopped. He has been stopped by strikes only once in his nine-year professional career (by Anderson Silva, who is an obvious outlier as he's clearly some sort of terminator robot). More seriously, if you disregard the Leites loss, as I believe you should (while the loss definitely sticks on the record, it doesn't indicate that he was really beaten in the fight, so it should be disregarded from a handicapping perspective), Marquardt has only been legitimately beaten in the past five years by Silva, widely regarded as one of the absolute best in the world. And Marquardt was winning the first three-and-a-half minutes of their fight before getting obliterated in the last 90 seconds.
Other than the TKO to Silva, "Nate the Great" has two losses by submission in his illustrious career. The first was a loss via armbar in his first year of fighting (1999) against submission wizard Genki Sudo, whose 15-5-1 MMA record is comprised of 80% of wins by submission. The second submission loss was a guillotine by the well-regarded Ricardo "Cachorrao" Almeida, a Renzo Gracie black belt, back in 1998. Other than those three stoppages, the rest of Marquardt's few losses have come by losing decisions, and I don't see Gouveia having the complete suite of tools or especially the cardio to outwork Marquardt to a decision.
Gouveia definitely has a chance to win this fight. Marquardt does let himself get hit occasionally, as he tends to keep his hands a little lower than most, creating openings for his opponents to shoot a straight shot through, as demonstrated by Marquardt getting dropped by straight shots from Leites and Silva in their respective fights. However, straight on shots will drop you but don't generally cause the sort of flash knockouts associated with sidewise strikes to the chin, so there is a lot less danger. And Marquardt does generally recover quickly when he is hit, and he should be smart enough not to trade with Gouveia at length. Yes, there is a legitimate chance that Marquardt eats a hard shot and we get a (possibly overly quick) stoppage from a follow-up flurry. But generally, Marquardt is tough enough to recover from a single hard shot if given time, especially as he has great instincts for takedowns while hurt. And Gouveia doesn't generally have the wrestling skills to defend against a desperation takedown, though he may be able to utilize his jiu jitsu to execute a sweep or threaten with a submission off a desperation takedown instead.
Generally, look for Gouveia to try to work his leg kicks to try to eliminate Marquardt's base, thus restricting his ability to move and drive for takedowns and thus set up opportunity to let his heavy hands fly once his opponent is hobbled. However, Marquardt will likely be able to effectively impose his game plan and do what he's done most of his career: take the fight to the ground, where his dominant top game can grind his opponents into dust. Especially against a fighter with notoriously suspect conditioning, look for Marquardt and Jackson to involve a lot of work in the clinch early (eliminating Gouveia's ability to use his heavy hands as effectively) and taking the fight to the ground at every opportunity.
I think Marquardt's clear path to victory by exploiting Gouveia's suspect conditioning means he wins this fight at better than three times in four, making him a solid bet at the current odds. Marquardt by TKO stoppage in the third after wearing his opponent down in the prior two rounds, though a decision wouldn't be a surprising outcome either.
Marquardt line via Bookmaker.
Demian Maia (-270) vs. Chael Sonnen (+225)
Undefeated Brazilian submission wizard Demian Maia (9-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) puts his perfect record on the line against transplanted WEC contender (and returning UFC veteran) Chael Sonnen (21-9-1 MMA, 2-2 UFC).
Maia is a second-degree BJJ black belt who trains under Felipe Costa and Rafael Alejarra, and alongside numerous BJJ greats including Ronaldo "Jacare" de Souza. He's been preparing for this fight specifically with Wanderlei Silva in Las Vegas. While his MMA jiu jitsu is world class (perhaps the best there is right now), the rest of his game is a little more limited. He doesn't have great striking, wrestling or takedowns, but generally can drag his opponents to the ground eventually even if he has to pull guard.
His opponent, Sonnen, fought in the UFC from 2005 to 2006, between UFC 55 (where he was submitted by Renato "Babalu" Sobral") and UFC 60 (where he was submitted by Jeremy Horn). After a stint in BodogFIGHT, Sonnen joined the WEC, where he was submitted in his first fight by Paulo Filho at WEC 31. Sonnen rebounded by beating Bryan Baker at WEC 33 and then won a rematch against Filho at WEC 36 in what was one of MMA's more ludicrous fights (think Kalib Starnes' track-meet antics, and you're not too far off from how spaced out Filho was in their second fight).
In his past 13 fights, Sonnen is 10-3 with all three losses by submission. If you think that Sonnen's string of submission losses are troubling when facing someone the caliber of Maia, well, you're right. Unless he improves his striking or his wrestling, Maia's one-dimensionality is going to catch up to him at some point since an opponent with really strong wrestling and top game that can neutralize his jiu jitsu should give him fits (think St. Pierre vs. Penn II), as should someone with strong striking with solid takedown defense. Sonnen does have great wrestling skills (he was an All-American in college and U.S. Olympic team alternate), but he's shown too much of a tendency to get submitted by guys nowhere near Maia's level.
Unfortunately, Sonnen's affiliation with Team Quest actually hurts him here in my book. Team Quest hasn't been doing so well in the submission-defense department lately with example No. 1 being Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou's continued inability to defend basic submissions. Team Quest, I'm afraid, is in desperate need of a good jiu-jitsu ace to push its guys, as the wrestling base they've got just isn't getting it done against jiu-jitsu fighters, and I'm afraid you're going to see that lack of jiu-jitsu education expertise in their camp exposed here once again. Maia already has three victories over Team Quest fighters (Ryan Jensen, Ed Herman and Nate Quarry), and I believe he makes it four here with ease.
I can understand those considering a small flier on Sonnen, as there is a slight possibility that Maia's lack of well-roundedness catches up to him here. If Sonnen can use his wrestling skills to keep the fight standing early when he's most at risk of submission, or if he can avoid making mistakes in being overaggressive on the ground and keep Maia pinned down and absorbing punishment, it's certainly possible for Sonnen to pull out the upset. It's just not likely. Maia wins by submission in the first round more often than not.
Sonnen line via via Bookmaker.
Josh Koscheck (-500) vs. Paulo Thiago (+450)
American Kickboxing Academy fighter Josh Koscheck (12-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC) is a dominant wrestler who is becoming a much more complete fighter with significantly improving standup, who is well known thanks to his stint on the first season of "The Ultimate Fighter."
Paulo Thiago holds a perfect 10-0 record and is making his UFC debut. The Brazilian holds a BJJ black belt under Ataíde Júnior. Thiago is a police officer and member of Brazil's elite SWAT team PMDF (Federal District Military Police), so you've got to assume the pressure of making his UFC debut isn't going to phase him compared to his day job in a high-crime country like Brazil. His camp says he's well-rounded with decent boxing and takedowns, but the footage I've seen of his past fights leads me to believe that Koscheck should have a serious edge in standup. Thiago only has one TKO victory on his record, and that was due to an injury.
So this fight likely plays out pretty straightforward: Thiago gets beaten up on the feet thanks to Koscheck's superior wrestling and the accumulated punishment leads to a TKO stoppage. Thiago will likely have to pull guard to get the fight to the ground, and unless he can do so early he's likely in for a world of hurt. However, given the lack of detail available on Thiago, it wouldn't be surprising to see Koscheck start slow and cautious, so don't be surprised if this ends up going past the first round. Koscheck by TKO in the second.
Thiago line via via Bookmaker.
Undercard
Terry Etim (-240) vs. Brian Cobb (+205)
Terry Etim (11-2 MMA, 2-2 UFC), a well-rounded fighter from Liverpool, England, defeated Matt Grice in his UFC debut at UFC 70, then lost consecutive decisions to Gleison Tibau and Rich Clementi before rebounding with a decision victory of his own over Sam Stout at UFC 89.
Palace Fighting Championships lightweight title-holder Brian Cobb (15-4 MMA) is a former collegiate wrestler who has a purple belt in jiu jitsu and is making his UFC debut. Riding a nine-fight win streak, Cobb is stepping in on only a week's notice to replace Justin Buchholz, who is down with a staph infection. Cobb is not a fulltime fighter; he's currently pursuing a master's degree in mathematics and a teaching credential.
Etim's submission skills from his back should neutralize Cobb's wrestling advantage if the fight hits the ground, and Etim should have a solid advantage on the feet with his kickboxing skills and reach advantage. Since Cobb has little to lose and everything to gain, expect him to come out and let his hands go.
I like Etim for a small play here. Etim by submission in the first, set up by strikes.
Cobb line via Bookmaker.
Junior Dos Santos (-285) vs. Stefan Struve (+230)
Junior dos Santos (7-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) trains with the crew formerly known as Black House, now known as the Nogueira Brothers Training Center -- a fearsome group including Anderson Silva, the Nogueira brothers and Lyoto Machida. Dos Santos is the current Brazilian heavyweight kickboxing champion with a record of 18-0. He holds a legit BJJ black belt with solid ground skills. He's big and strong, and he hits hard with skilled boxing and kickboxing. He also works really well out of the clinch, mixing in good Muay Thai and good takedowns via trips and throws. He trains with the best camp in MMA bar none, not only training alongside the Nogueira brothers but under their trainers: grappling under BJJ black belt Amaury Bitetti, who instructs the aforementioned Nogueira brothers in BJJ, and trains boxing under Luis Dorea, who trained Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to become the Brazilian Olympic national boxing champion.
Dos Santos comes into the fight off a devastating first-round knockout victory over Fabricio Werdum at UFC 90.
Stefan Struve (16-2 MMA) is a Dutch kickboxer and mixed martial artist who is making his UFC debut. "Skyscraper" is 21 years old, and is ridiculously tall (listed at 6-foot-11 on UFC.com, though I have on good authority that he's actually 6-foot-8, which is Tim Sylvia's height), though he is not overly muscular. His body type actually looks like he could be fighting in the light-heavyweight division until you realize just how tall he is.
Struve, a BJJ black belt, has excellent submission skills off his back, where he can utilize his long legs for great leverage on armbars and triangles (think Nate Diaz as a heavyweight). Struve has faced (and finished) two UFC veterans in his young career, though both are winless in the big show: Colin Robinson (9-8 MMA, 0-2 UFC) and Mario Neto (10-5 MMA, 0-1 UFC). Struve trains at Team Schrijber under "Dirty" Bob Schrijber. Struve has won 14 of his past 15 fights with the lone loss in that time to French fighter Christian "Tonton" M'Pumbu (11-2-1).
This is an interesting fight as Struve has the overall standup skills to engage Dos Santos, but he's at a significant disadvantage in power and a moderate disadvantage in speed. Dos Santos is also more technical since Struve tends to be a little sloppy with his strikes and misses a lot. Struve will obviously want to use his range and keep the standup at distance since Dos Santos has knockout power, which Werdum can attest (if he's woken up yet), and he is also excellent in the clinch.
Dos Santos's BJJ skills should be sufficient to neutralize Struve's long limbs, and he should be able to avoid early submission attempts from Struve if the fight goes down. I expect Dos Santos to absorb some punishment early as he struggles to find range, but once he closes inside, look for him to land a few damaging shots and continue his assault on the heavyweight division.
Dos Santos by TKO in the second round.
Dos Santos line via Bookmaker.
Mike Ciesnolevicz (-125) vs. Neil Grove (-105)
Hot rookie-on-rookie action! Mike Ciesnolevicz (16-3) is a member of the Miletich camp and former IFL fighter with a wrestling background. He's a brown belt in Shorin-Ryu Karate and a blue belt in BJJ. Opponent Neil "Goliath" Grove (7-1) hails from Essex, England, is primarily a striker and ground-and-pound fighter who formerly held the heavyweight championship title in the UK Cage Rage series. Grove is 38 years old, and his record includes two wins over Robert "Buzz" Berry and a 10-second KO victory over James "Alien Ear" Thompson.
Grove will have the local crowd behind him, but at 38 years old, his best years are behind him. Still, he's a dangerous striker and is big and strong. Grove had to lose weight to meet the heavyweight maximum of 265 pounds. Ciesnolevicz normally fights at 205. However, he expects to weigh in about 235, but he will still be at a significant size and strength disadvantage to his opponent.
This is a tough fight to call. Experience, youth and a better wrestling background against a bigger, stronger striker. Usually the wrestler would be a good play here since he can more easily neutralize the striker's advantages. However, Ciesnolevicz's combination of short-notice fill-in notice and significant size disadvantage make this tough to predict. Ciesnolevicz's pre-fight interviews indicate he's got a solid game plan, to take Grove into "deep water" and attack his suspect conditioning. If his wrestling and jiu-jitsu skills can neutralize the strength advantage (and he doesn't get blasted on the way in), the former IFL fighter should be able to easily grind out a decision victory or possibly score a late TKO depending on how weak Grove's gas tank is. Ciesnolevicz by unanimous decision.
Per Eklund (-160) vs. Evan Dunham (+130)
This lightweight battle pits a talented young rookie in undefeated Evan Dunham (7-0) against well-rounded Swede Per Eklund (14-3-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC). Eklund made his UFC debut at UFC 80, where he dropped a unanimous decision to Sam Stout. He rebounded with a submission victory over Sammy Schiavo at UFC 89.
Dunham is primarily a grappler who holds a brown belt in BJJ under Wellington "Megaton" Dias (a fourth-degree black belt under Royler Gracie) and holds a submission victory over the 2008 "No-Gi" BJJ world champion Cleber Luciano in an MMA fight. Dunham trains at Xtreme Couture under Shawn Tompkins.
Dunham is yet another late replacement for this card, taking the fight on two weeks' notice in replacement of David Baron, after fighting only two weeks ago, when he scored a third-round submission win at a Palace Fighting Championship event.
I haven't been tremendously impressed with Eklund in his two UFC fights, and if Dunham had taken this fight with normal notice, I think I'd like him quite a bit here with his highly-touted grappling skills and excellent camp. On short notice, I'm probably going to stay away, but I might make a small "for fun" play on Dunham, especially if the odds improve.
Dunham by unanimous decision (if he's got the cardio after going two full rounds just two weeks ago).
Paul Kelly (-290) vs. Troy Mandaloniz (+230)
Liverpool's Paul Kelly (7-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) trains at Wolfslair Academy and is 1-1 in the UFC after winning his debut against Paul Taylor at UFC 80 and then being submitted by Marcus Davis at UFC 89. Hawaiian Troy Mandaloniz (3-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) was a contestant on "The Ultimate Fighter 6" and is a childhood friend and training partner of B.J. Penn. Mandaloniz defeated teammate Richie Hightower at The Ultimate Fighter 6 Finale via TKO at 4:20 of the first round, but he hasn't fought professionally since.
Kelly and Mandaloniz both like to bang, so this lightweight bout that opens the card could easily end up with Fight of the Night or Knockout of the Night honors if some of the later fights don't go as planned. Expect Kelly's technical expertise to win out after some exciting back and forth. Kelly by TKO in the first.
Performify's Picks for UFC 95
- Dan Hardy (-105): 2.1 units to win 2 units
- Nate Marquardt (-275): 5.5 units to win 2 units
- Terry Etim (-240): 1.6 units to win .6 units
- Junior Dos Santos (-285): 1.9 units to win .6 units
