Performify's Picks for "UFC 91: Lesnar vs. Couture"
Results of 4-1 for +5.3 units on UFC 90 brings the running total for my public predictions since UFC 75 to 60-47 for +26.085 units. Let's see if we can't build on that success with another strong event.
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Now, onto the picks.
Randy Couture (+110) vs. Brock Lesnar (-140)
Not much has changed since I initially broke this fight down in
FIGHT Magazine (and here on
MMAjunkie.com). But for those who missed my previous article and don't want to take the time to revisit it, here's my two-minute drill.
The 45-year-old Couture's return will be his first action since August 2007 at UFC 74, where he defended his title against Gabriel Gonzaga. Holder of a 16-8 MMA record (13-5 UFC) and already a member of the UFC Hall of Fame, Couture displays decent stand-up skills with good head movement. He is most dangerous from the clinch, where he is equally likely to punish you with dirty boxing or dump you to the ground. Once he has you down, Couture holds top position and depends on ground and pound rather than submissions.
Ring rust is popular topic for pundits in this fight (and obviously a major concern), but Couture has not been particularly active in the latter part of his career to begin with. He fought only twice in 2005, once in 2006, and twice in 2007.
Lesnar made his MMA debut in K-1 in June 2007 against Min Soo Kim (3-6), winning by TKO via ground and pound. In February 2008, Lesnar made his big-stage debut at UFC 81 against former heavyweight champion Frank Mir. There, Lesnar secured an early takedown and looked to be overwhelming his opponent, but he was penalized a point for hitting Mir in the back of the head. Following another takedown by Lesnar, Mir secured a kneebar and forced a quick submission. Lesnar rebounded by defeating Heath Herring by unanimous decision at UFC 87 in August, which brought his MMA record to 2-1 (1-1 UFC).
Couture is listed as 6-foot-1 and 228 pounds. His opponent stands 6-foot-3 and has to cut 15 pounds to make the heavyweight top limit of 265, giving Lesnar a realistic 40-pound weight advantage on fight night.
This fight presents several interesting dichotomies: age vs. youth, strategy vs. aggression, and veteran vs. rookie. To me, the most relevant comparison is not where the fighters differ; it's where they are the same. It's easy to enumerate Lesnar's inexperience against Couture's fantastic gameplanning, or Lesnar's incredible speed against Couture's age. More overlooked is that Couture's typical areas of strength -- speed, wrestling and physical power -- are all areas of weaknesses when compared to Lesnar. Lesnar is insanely fast, amazingly strong, and thanks in no small part to that speed and strength, he possesses top-notch wrestling ability, including explosive takedowns and a dominant top game (from what we've seen of it, anyway).
Conversely, Lesnar's main weakness is not Couture's area of strength. We know that Lesnar is not exactly a submission-defense expert. However, Couture has only two submission victories to his credit in an 11-year career: a victory via anaconda choke over Mike van Arsdale (1-4 UFC) at UFC 54 in 2005, and a victory via rear-naked choke over Tony Halme (0-1 UFC) in his UFC debut in 1997 at UFC 13. Coincidentally, Halme wrestled for the WWF as "Ludvig Borga" from 1993-94, making Couture 1-0 so far against former professional WWF/WWE wrestlers.
Most relevant is that Couture didn't show any significant submission offense against Tim Sylvia despite controlling him in dominant positions the entire fight. Sylvia presents an attractive submission target and is much less capable of reversal and escape compared to Lesnar's phenomenal explosiveness and wrestling skills. Couture also didn't display strong submission offense in his fight with Tito Ortiz, and he was unable to apply a rear naked choke despite taking Ortiz's back. Mir's kneebar aside, I think Couture will have a hard time submitting Lesnar without getting reversed, especially given the amount of time and training Lensar's had since the quick tap against Mir.
Assuming Lesnar has the advantage in wrestling, if he can put Couture on his back, what about a submission from the bottom? Couture has almost never been put on his back, so his submission skills from there are unknown. Wrestlers aren't typically comfortable from their backs. So despite Couture's experience, I can't expect he's going show up as a submission specialist from his back. His entire career gives no indication of being strong in submissions from dominant positions, let alone defensive ones.
Couture has respect in the grappling world, stemming from a scoreless draw in a 2006 grappling match against Ronaldo "Jacare" de Souza, who is one of the top grapplers in the world. Couture had a significant size and strength advantage on the 185-pound Jacare, and he mostly spent the match on the defensive. So the scoreless draw isn't reason to upgrade his offensive submission skills (defensive, sure, but that's not so relevant here). It could also be argued that Couture struggled with larger wrestlers in his career; for example, he suffered consecutive losses to Josh Barnett and Ricco Rodriguez in 2002.
For perhaps the first time in his career, Couture is at a disadvantage in quickness, wrestling and strength. While you can never count Couture out, it's hard to see where he has an edge outside of his legendary gameplanning and in experience.
It's probable that Couture will have an edge in cardio, but that too comes from experience. The wily veteran knows to pace himself for the championship fight. Lesnar demonstrated a frentic pace in his fights, but trainer Greg Nelson will surely have him prepared for an appropriate pace as much as theoretically possible. We also can question Couture's cardio with concerns of ring rust, age and that he'll be dealing with 280 pounds of muscle on top of him the entire fight.
Couture's victory over Sylvia at UFC 68 has been given as reason why he should succeed against Lesnar. This is a very bad comparison. Sylvia, while large in stature, isn't solid muscle, isn't highly athletic, and doesn't have a world-class wrestling background. Sylvia was also hampered in the fight by a back injury. In short, Sylvia is no comparison to Lesnar.
Couture has the best ability of anyone to game plan, so he's hard to predict. Still, we can assume he will want to use his wrestling to try to keep the fight standing, probably will take the fight to Lesnar, but mostly will try to drag Lesnar into "deep water," planning on testing Lesnar's cardio. However, thanks to the factors outlined above, I believe Couture is going to be put on his back and isn't likely to threaten with submissions once there. It's certainly possible that Lesnar will indeed gas in the latter rounds, but I expect instead that we see Lesnar win a dominant five-round decision in the neighborhood of 50-44.
I believe Lesnar should be a moderate favorite over Couture. The betting line for this fight opened at Couture (-160), Lesnar (+130) on Bodog. As I quickly posted in the MMAjunkie.com
MMA Forums, I predicted that money would come pouring in on Lesnar. When I wrote my previous breakdown for
FIGHT! and this site, Lesnar was down to (-115) on the same book, a move of 45 points. I posted at that time that believed the true line to be Lesnar (-140), and that's exactly where we are today.
Understand that this fight represents a high-volatility outcome; even if I am precisely correct and Lesnar is exactly a (-140) favorite, he would win this fight only 58 percent of the time, making it obvious that there's still a high percentage chance for Couture to walk away with his belt.
There is also a very attractive proposition bet available for this fight on Bodog:
- Couture/Lesnar fight goes 2:30 of Round 3 (-125)
- Couture/Lesnar fight does not go 2:30 of Round 3 (-125)
I'm a big fan of the fight going over 2:30 of Round 3 (12:30 of total fight time). This line opened with the "under" priced around +175 and has been bet steadily down, which I predicted in the previous article. I believe the "over" now represents very solid value and recommend it as a play as well.
Kenny Florian (-185) vs. Joe Stevenson (+155)
Florian (10-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC) is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Roger Huerta at UFC 87 and has won five consecutive fights. Stevenson (29-8 MMA, 6-2 UFC) rebounded from a devastating loss to B.J. Penn at UFC 80 with a submission victory over Gleison Tibau at UFC 86.
This fight should be both close and exciting. Florian's reach and excellent jab and leg kicks should give him a serious edge standing while Stevenson's skills in wrestling and strength give him the edge in the clinch and should let him dictate the location of the fight. Florian is dangerous from his back, where he is able to threaten with jiu jitsu and with elbows. He frequently uses his submission skills to set up transitions and escapes, so don't be surprised if we see "Daddy" unable to hold Florian down for long. Penn was able to open a gushing cut on Stevenson, and Florian's infamous elbows will do the same if given an opening.
Stevenson is a tough opponent and a solid fighter, but I think with his growth as a fighter over the past two years, Florian is on a slightly higher level. Stevenson does have an impressive 29 wins, but he's yet to beat an opponent of this caliber, and I think at the current price as a 65% favorite that Florian is the correct bet. I predict Florian takes a unanimous decision.
Gabriel Gonzaga (-450) vs. Josh Hendricks (+300)
Gonzaga (9-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC) submitted Justin McCully at UFC 86 to break a two-fight losing streak after getting TKOd by Randy Couture then Fabricio Werdum. Hendricks (15-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC), making his UFC debut, is a former All-American in wrestling for Ashland University and has won 10 consecutive fights (with a no-contest). Hendricks' last professional fight was almost a year ago. He has good grappling skills, and 10 of 15 wins have come by way of submission. With Gonzaga's ground skills negating Hendricks' best offensive weapon, combined with first-time UFC jitters, I don't believe the 25% chance of upsetting "Napao" is enough to warrant a flier on Hendricks. I predict Gonzaga takes a unanimous decision in a slow-paced fight.
Demian Maia (-210) vs. Nate Quarry (+180)
Maia (8-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) is a top-tier grappler with limited but improving striking. Quarry (10-2 MMA, 5-1 UFC) returns after his bizarre victory over Kalib Starnes at UFC 83. Quarry has battled injuries over the past few years and hasn't looked great in his last few fights (though you can't fault him for the train wreck against Starnes). Maia has improved his overall MMA game in his past two fights while demonstrating better-than-expected takedowns against Ed Herman's wrestling skills and improved striking against Jason MacDonald in his most recent fight.
At -210 Maia is predicted to win about 67% of the time, and I think he takes this close to three in four. Quarry has a chance if he can drag the fight into the third round and take advantage of Maia's cardio, but I don't expect it to go that long. I predict Maia by submission in the second.
Dustin Hazelett (-180) vs. Tamdan McCrory (+150)
Hazelett (11-4 MMA, 4-2 UFC) has won eight of his past 10, losing to Tony DeSouza in his rookie fight for the UFC and getting TKOd by Josh Koscheck at UFC 82. Hazelett rebounded from the Koscheck loss with a very impressive victory over Josh Burkman at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale that won him both Submission of the Night and Fight of the Night honors.
McCrory (9-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) is a solid and scrappy fighter with a lanky 6-foot-4 frame, which usually gives him an incredible reach advantage as a welterweight. Hazelett is also tall and lanky, three inches shorter than McCrory, but he told us he actually has a slight reach advantage in this fight. McCrory was submitted by Akihiro Gono at UFC 78, and I expect more of the same here. Look for Hazelett to close ground, take the fight to the canvas, and fire submission after submission at McCrory's lanky arms until he's successful. I predict Hazelett by submission in the second round.
Undercard:
Jorge Gurgel (-115) vs. Aaron Riley (-115)
Gurgel (12-4 MMA, 3-3 UFC) is a BJJ blackbelt who faces a tough veteran opponent in Riley (26-10-1 MMA, 0-2 UFC). Riley has heavy hands and solid striking skills and is decently well-rounded. He's been training with Joe Stevenson and has been fighting for 11 years even though he's only 28. However, he's lost to every "UFC-caliber" fighter he's faced: Eddie Alvarez, Spencer Fisher, Sam Morgan, Chris Lytle, Robbie Lawler and Yves Edwards (twice).
Riley is 3-3 in his past six and hasn't really beaten any notable opponents despite a very long career. At 1-2 in his past three fight and 31 years old, Gurgel certainly isn't considered top-tier at lightweight, but he should be a bigger favorite here, if not for one huge problem. Gurgel's biggest disadvantage in this fight is his stubborn refusal to utilize his submission skills and a disappointing tendency to want to stand and bang when he's obviously outmatched in striking.
Gurgel is tough, without question, he has great cardio, and he's obviously intelligent as a top instructor. However, for whatever reason, he refuses to "fight smart" and utilize his skills in favor of putting on exciting fights. If we knew for a fact that Gurgel would be smart and avoid Riley's significant edge in striking and heavy hands, he'd be a significant favorite. However, we can't guarantee that Gurgel won't try to stand and trade, and if he does he'll most certainly lose. As such, I think the books did a great job setting this line, and I'm staying away from the coin flip.
Jeremy Stephens (-135) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+105)
After starting strong with wins in his first two UFC fights, Stephens (13-3 MMA, 2-2 UFC) looks to rebound after a disappointing unanimous decision loss to Spencer Fisher at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale. Rafael dos Anjos (11-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC) makes his UFC debut riding a nine-fight win streak. The Brazilian fighter is a BJJ black belt under Aldo "Caveirinha" Januario and at 24 has been fighting professionally for four years.
Stephens is a well-rounded fighter with heavy hands and strong ground and pound. This line is set close primarily because Stephens got caught by Din Thomas in his UFC debut and the linesmakers assume dos Anjos will threaten significantly anytime the fight goes to the ground. However, Stephens has much stronger submission defense than he displayed against Thomas, and his significant advantage in striking and strong takedown defense should allow him to make this a very one-sided fight. I predict Stephens soundly beating dos Anjos on the feet with a successful implementation of a "sprawl and brawl" gameplan on his way to a unanimous decision victory.
Matt Brown (-200) vs. Ryan Thomas (+160)
Brown (7-7 MMA, 1-1 UFC) looks to rebound from a close split decision loss to Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 88 when he meets Thomas (9-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC). Thomas is primarily a wrestler who has some promise but not enough to warrant a play at these odds when there are better bets elsewhere. Look for a close fight that goes to decision with either fighter capable of pulling out a 29-28 win.
Alvin Robinson (+110) vs. Mark Bocek (-140)
American Top Team's Bocek (5-2 MMA, 1-2 UFC) has an excellent top game but is weak in striking and has been extremely limited from his back. Robinson (9-3 MMA, 1-2 UFC) has solid striking skills and good work in the clinch. Bocek has proven too one-dimensional to hang with Robinson's wrestling and striking. I feel Robinson is worth a solid play here. Robinson by unanimous decision.
Performify's Picks for UFC 91:
- Lesnar/Couture over 2:30 of Round 3 (-125) : 2.5u to win 2u
- Kenny Florian (-185) : 1u to win .54u
- Demian Maia (-210): 4.2u to win 2u
- Dustin Hazelett (-180) : 3.6u to win 2u
- Jeremy Stephens (-135): 1.35u to win 1u
- Alvin Robinson (+110): .5u to win .55u
