Performify's Picks for UFC 90: Silva vs. Cote
Eric "Performify" Foster, MMAjunkie.com's resident handicapper, returns for a breakdown and recommended picks for Saturday's UFC 90 event.
Performify breaks down the entire fight card and also provides a few recommended "good bets," including a big recommended play on the night's main event of Anderson Silva vs. Patrick Cote.
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UFC 90 should be renamed "Seriously, this is the best we could do given the circumstances" thanks to no less than five fighter replacements. This card should have featured Diego Sanchez, Melvin Guillard, Goran Reljic, Ricardo Almeida and Gleison Tibau, but all five are out. In are Josh Koscheck, Shannon Gugerty, Drew McFedries, Dan Miller, and Marcus Aurelio respectively. Given the circumstances, no question, this could be a lot worse.
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Results of 2-2, +.2 units on UFC 88 brings the running total for my public predictions since UFC 75 to 55-43 for +22.125 units.
As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook,
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Main Card
Anderson Silva (-650) vs. Patrick Cote (+450)
Anderson Silva (22-4 MMA, 7-0 UFC) is widely regarded as one -- if not the sole owner of the title -- of the best active pound for pound fighters in MMA. It's hard to argue. His deadly combination of elite-level Muay Thai skills are combined with elite-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills thanks to a black belt earned from Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Patrick Cote (13-4 MMA, 4-4 UFC) is a strong striker with an excellent chin. He primarily trains at Brazilian Top Team Canada alongside Georges St. Pierre (when "GSP" is not training at Greg Jackson's camp in the US). Cote has an excellent team of trainers. He studies BJJ under Fabio Holanda (Cote holds a purple belt in BJJ) and Muay Thai under Mark DellaGrotte.
Silva represents a terrible stylistic matchup for almost every opponent due to his dominance both standing and on the ground. Unfortunately for our hardcore Canadian readers, I'm afraid to predict that Cote represents perhaps the worst possibly stylistic matchup for potentially upsetting the champion. Cote's primary strength is his stand-up and Muay Thai skills, and he's known for an iron chin more so than excellent defensive movement. Muay Thai matches up strength against strength here, and engaging in a Muay Thai match with "the Spider" is a fast way to end up staring at the ceiling. Silva is terribly hard to hit due to extremely impressive defensive skills. It's not only his flashy head movement but he also does a fantastic job of positioning and moving his body, using great footwork and patience, circling and using angles to his advantage. Cote is further at a disadvantage -- as are almost all of Silva's opponents -- due to Silva's extreme advantage in reach and his extreme strength for his body type.
If you think an iron chin will enable Cote to stand with Silva, look back to Silva smashing Chris Leben at UFC Fight Night 5 and blasting Dan Henderson at UFC 82, both fighters who are renowned for having iron chins themselves. And Silva only needed 49 seconds to dispatch Leben's iron chin. Likewise, Cote doesn't have tremendous wrestling or takedowns from outside, and even if he can take the fight to the ground, his Jiu-Jitsu skills are notably inferior to Silva's. Cote has been submitted twice in his career, by Joe Doerksen at UFC 52 and by Travis Lutter at the finale of "The Ultimate Fighter 4." Lutter may be the "Micheal Jordan of BJJ" in Mike Goldberg's eyes, but I'd consider that Silva's BJJ pedigree is superior to both fighters.
Other arguments for Cote that I've heard espoused are that Silva is overlooking his opponent, or that he's thinking of retiring and thus not concentrating. I guarantee you that Silva is not looking past his opponent. He's one of the most humble fighters I've ever come across, and I guarantee he's not caught up in his pound-for-pound ranking and looking past this fight. Look for Silva to come out as dominant and focused as you've ever seen him, and make the case that he is indeed the "greatest mixed martial artist on the planet" as the UFC commercials love to scream at me.
Yes, anyone can get caught, whether by a punch or a knee or a slick submission. And yes, Cote most certainly has a "puncher's chance" at stealing the title. However, to profit on betting on MMA you have to be able to identify when heavy favorites are undervalued. As I've written in the past in the MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series of articles, one of the largest mistakes people make in betting MMA is overvaluing the probability of the "puncher's chance" impacting the fight, and I think many people are doing so here.
At the current line of -650, Silva is being projected to win this fight 86.7% of the time. I believe due to the extreme stylistic mismatch, Cote has closer to a one in thirteen chance of pulling the upset. As such, I believe there is significant value on Silva up to a line of -1000. I'd need to see a line of Cote +1350 to consider taking a longshot play on the underdog, and I definitely don't expect it to get there.
I predict Anderson Silva wins via TKO early in the second round. Ultimately I expect a similar fight to Silva vs. Franklin II, where Franklin was able to hold his own for a portion of the first round before being overwhelmed and eventually dominated. I believe Cote will likely use a defensive gameplan, looking to force Silva to come to him and look to block and counter, trying to negate some of Silva's excellent defensive abilities by forcing him to come forward. However, I believe that Silva won't fall in to this trap the same way that some other fighters have recently (Chuck Liddell, I'm looking at you).
Look for Cote to start out defensive, Silva to approach with an appropriate level of aggression and probe his opponent's defenses without opening himself up too much. When Cote can't get Silva to expose an opening by being passive, I expect he's going to try to close ground and work in the clinch, believe it or not. He can't stand at distance and he doesn't want the fight to go to the ground. He's compact and strong and well versed in Muay Thai, so I think he's going to try to move inside if he can, where I expect the two fighters to trade some impressive Muay Thai clinch work before Silva gets the upper hand and from there quickly finishes the fight.
I think it's possible we see Silva finish via a standing elbow strike, especially coming out of the clinch if the fight does indeed go as I've written. I have seen Silva demonstrate some very flashy standing elbow strikes in the gym, as well as utilize them in the cage -- look back to his standing elbow knockout of Tony Fryklund in the Cage Rage organization in 2006 for the textbook example.
Josh Koscheck (-150) vs. Thiago Alves (+120)
In what I expect to be the closest fight of the night, Josh Koscheck (11-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC) fills in for Diego Sanchez to face Thiago Alvez (15-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC) on less than two week's notice. Koscheck was already preparing for a fight in December so it's not like he's coming in completely cold, but "Kos" has to be seriously commended for the major risk he is taking in facing such a fierce opponent on such short notice.
Koscheck is a dominant wrestler with moderate stand-up skills and limited demonstrated submission skills. He's choked out a couple opponents via rear naked chokes, but those are less about BJJ skill and more about finishing an overwhelmed or out of position opponent, thus the basis of my rating. Alves is a tough and compact Muay Thai fighter with excellent power and toughness who also holds a purple belt in BJJ. He's been submitted twice, and knocked out only once, a TKO against Jon Fitch at UFC Fight Night 5 in mid-2006. "Kos" is a former NCAA Division I national champion and All-American wrestler who trains under Bob Cook and Dave Camarillo at AKA; "Pitbull" trains under Ricardo Liborio and Howard Davis, Jr. at American Top Team.
This fight is a classic matchup of opposing styles. Koscheck's game has evolved in the past few years, but he's still a rather one-dimensional wrestler with limited striking and submission skills. Alves is primarily a striker, and despite being from Fortaleza, Brazil, and holding a BJJ purple belt, he's only submitted one opponent in eighteen fights. So don't expect him to suddenly develop a host of submission attacks from his back. While it's a rather obvious prediction, this fight will be won by whichever fighter can effectively implement their gameplan and get the fight into their realm. If Alves can keep the fight standing, he'll win cleanly. If Koscheck can get on top, he can grind out a decision with his superior top game.
Many would point to Alves' recent decimation of Hughes at UFC 85 for why he should easily handle Koscheck here. I disagree. Hughes in 2008 is not the same Hughes of 2001-2005. Koscheck has much more dynamic and explosive takedowns compared to the modern-day Hughes, and he's also a better striker. Hughes struggled against Alves because he was completely one-dimensional, thus eliminating any sort of setup for his takedowns, and he was not explosive enough to finish a takedown from way outside. Koscheck suffers from neither problem: he will most certainly be able to take Alves to the ground at least once in this fight. The only real question is how long can he keep him there. Alves' size and strength have given him good ability to escape from takedowns and force scrambles.
I view this fight as a literal coinflip. I can't argue with those who are advocating Alves given that getting +120 on a 50/50 proposition is certainly a winning one. However, in light of the level of volatility represented, I recommend passing on this fight as part of my public picks. If you're a high-risk individual, this is worth a small play on either fighter if you can get them at any positive number.
Fabricio Werdum (-875) vs. Junior dos Santos (+600 via
Bookmaker.com)
PRIDE veteran Fabricio Werdum (11-3-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a brown belt in Judo, and trains with the famed Chute Boxe camp. The Abu Dhabi veteran is coming off consecutive wins over Brandon Vera and Gabriel Gonzaga after losing a unanimous decision to Andrei Arlovski in his UFC debut.
Junior dos Santos (6-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) trains with the crew formerly known as Black House, now known as the Nogueira Brothers Training Center -- a fearsome group including Anderson Silva, the Nogueira brothers, and Lyoto Machida. Dos Santos is the current Brazilian heavyweight kickboxing champion with a record of 18-0. He holds a legit BJJ black belt with solid ground skills. He's big and strong, and he hits hard with skilled boxing and kickboxing. He also works really well out of the clinch, mixing in good Muay Thai and good takedowns via trips and throws. He trains with the best camp in MMA bar none, not only training alongside the Nogueira brothers but under their trainers: grappling under BJJ black belt Amaury Bitetti, who instructs the aforementioned Nogueira brothers in BJJ, and trains boxing under Luis Dorea, who trained Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to become the Brazilian Olympic National Boxing Champion.
I love the internet chatter from self-proclaimed experts that Werdum is being given a "gift" here, usually from people who go on to say "I have no idea who dos Santos is." Here's a hint: You can see a clip of dos Santos training starting at 5:44 of Dana White's UFC 90 Video Blog posted on Oct. 22 (
http://youtube.com/watch?v=pzxNH8LFKqE). Despite being almost completely unknown to your average UFC fan, I'm confident you'll hear Joe Rogan say something like "Junior dos Santos is no joke" as the fighter makes his way to the cage.
Both fighters are legit BJJ black belts, so expect the ground game to be a bit of a wash. I would definitely give Werdum an edge on the ground. However, I believe standing is where this fight will be determined, and that's where I believe dos Santos has an edge in both technique and training. Werdum's stand-up was mediocre against Arlovski and he's shown some serious vulnerability to leg kicks in both his fights against Arlovski and Gonzaga.
I expect dos Santos to come out and use his kickboxing skills to punish his opponents legs early, changing the balance of the fight and enabling him to potentially pull off the significant upset. Werdum has indicated that he expects to be about 260 pounds for this fight, so while he'll have a significant size advantage (dos Santos is about 232 pounds) it's possible that the extra mass could be a negative in the later rounds of the fight.
Werdum is certainly no pushover, he's legitimately ranked in most people's top-ten lists at heavyweight, and he's one of the most skilled heavyweight grapplers in the world. The betting current line gives Werdum a 90% chance of winning, and you only need to compare this betting line to the Silva vs. Cote line to see how far it is out of balance. Dos Santos presents a lot more danger to Werdum stylistically, and Werdum is a long way from Anderson Silva's level of dominance. Yes, Werdum is the heavy favorite here and for a reason. But dos Santos is a very live underdog and is worth a moderate bet as the very heavy underdog. Dos Santos by unanimous decision.
Sean Sherk (-250) vs. Tyson Griffin (+200)
Sean Sherk (32-3-1 MMA, 6-3 UFC) looks to rebound against a tough Tyson Griffin (12-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) in his first fight back since getting dominated by BJ Penn at UFC 84 back in May. The biggest guarantee in this fight is that it's going to decision: Griffin's last five have gone to the judges, and Sherk hasn't finished an opponent in the UFC since December 2002. I expect this fight to be a classic Sherk fight: putting Griffin on his back over and over again, with Griffin highly frustrated and unable to counter Sherk's dominant top game wrestling skills. Sherk -260 represents a 72% chance of the "Muscle Shark" coming away victorious, and I think there's moderate value in that line. Griffin's training under Randy Couture will surely have him come in with a solid gameplan. However, I believe he'll simply be completely unable to execute it, unless his gameplan involves being put on his back and controlled handily by an opponent who is completely happy to grind out a 30-27 decision win on points. I believe Griffin is slightly overvalued due to overemphasis on his "Fight of the Year" candidate against Clay Guida at UFC 72.
Gray Maynard (-220) vs. Rich Clementi (+180)
Former three-time NCAA Division I wrestling All American Gray Maynard (5-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC with 1 No Contest) faces off against journeyman veteran Rich "No Love" Clementi (32-12-1 MMA, 5-3 UFC). Clementi has quietly racked up four consecutive UFC victories, beating Terry Etim, Sam Stout, Melvin Guillard and Anthony Johnson. Maynard will present a tough test for the veteran. Clementi has the skills to submit Maynard, but he can't out-wrestle him and he won't be able to keep up with the pace Maynard will likely set. If Clementi can't catch a triangle or guillotine in the first few minutes, expect Maynard to drag a unanimous decision.
Undercard
Hermes Franca (-185) vs. Marcus Aurelio (+155)
Hermes Franca (18-7 MMA, 5-4 UFC) has lost two in a row and looks to rebound by facing off against his former instructor, American Top Team's Marcus Aurelio (16-6 MMA, 2-2 UFC). Aurelio has limited stand-up skills but great top control. But he has appeared to hit the wall, probably due to his age (he's 35 and has been fighting professionally and very actively for over 6 years). Aurelio has lost four of his past six fights, with his only wins over the unheralded Ryan Roberts and Luke Caudillo in that stretch. Look for Franca to win this fight on the feet and score a TKO victory somewhere in the latter part of the fight, likely off a forced restart. Aurelio's top game is great, but he's shown a distinct lack of offense from there in his past several fights, and as such he tends to get restarted a lot. The current line assigns Franca a 65% chance of victory, and I think there's moderate value there.
Josh Burkman (-220 via
Bookmaker.com) vs. Pete Sell (+200)
Josh Burkman (18-7 MMA, 5-4 UFC) has lost his past two and three of his past four fights. His opponent Pete Sell has been inactive for over a year and has lost his past four fights. Burkman trains with Team Quest, Sell trains under the Serra-Longo Fight Team: grappling under Matt Serra, striking under Ray Longo. This is Sell's first fight at welterweight, cutting down from middleweight, and you have to expect that could be a significant negative as well.
I really don't understand why this line is so close. Burkman has a significant edge standing and Sell's mat skills haven't lived up to the BJJ black belt he received under Serra. I expect Burkman should be able to grind out a decisive decision over "Drago" with a high probability -- assuming he comes in with an appropriately cautious gameplan. The current line assigns him a 69% chance of victory and I see this as closer to 80/20 against Sell. Burkman by unanimous decision.
Thales Leites (-445 via
Bookmaker.com) vs. Drew McFedries (+300)
Thales Leites (13-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) returns fresh off a controversial decision victory over Nate Marquardt at UFC 85. He's a slick jiu-jitsu specialist with excellent takedowns, but has demonstrated some poor cardio and in-ring adjustments, despite winning his past four fights. Miletich fighter Drew McFedries (7-4 MMA, 3-3 UFC) is a banger with truly heavy hands and limited grappling skills. He's stepping in on short notice, filling in for Goran Reljic who was sidelined with an injury in training.
McFedries gets serious kudos for stepping up to the fight on short notice, but outside of a McFedries Hail Mary punch landing, Leites should take this fight to the ground and eventually grind out a submission. It's worth noting that McFedries hasn't been out of the first round in his past seven fights, and was submitted by the relatively unknown Mike Massenzio inside of 90 seconds in his past fight at UFC Fight Night 15. The current line assigns Leites a 83% chance of victory, and I see that as slightly undervalued. McFedries his hard, but he should spend the fight on his back unable to effectively impose his will.
Spencer Fisher (-350) vs. Shannon Gugerty (+275)
The 32-year-old Spencer Fisher (21-4 MMA, 6-3 UFC) claims a "Black Belt in Hillbilly Wrassling," which I'm not positive they offer at Miletich's camp in Bettendorf, Iowa. His opponent Shannon Gugerty (11-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC) holds a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Dean Lister and is 5-0 in Muay Thai competitions. Gugerty replaces Melvin "Stanchion" Guillard for this fight, but did so at the beginning of September so it's not a last-minute substitution issue per usual. Gugerty is 26 years old and has posted eight straight victories -- all of which have come via stoppage, with five in the first round.
No significant opinion on this fight: I think Gugerty is a live underdog, but I haven't seen enough of him to warrant a serious bet given what I believe are better opportunities on the rest of the card.
Dan Miller (-325) vs. Matt Horwich (+250)
Former IFL fighter Dan Miller (9-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) holds a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and is coming fresh off a win over Rob Kimmons at UFC Fight Night 15 just over a month ago. Given that he was in the cage less than 90 seconds against Kimmons, it's easy to understand why Miller stepped up to fight again after Ricardo Almeida was forced to withdraw. Matt Horwich (22-10-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is also a former IFL fighter. In fact, in the 2007 IFL World Grand Prix, Horwich became the league's first-ever middleweight champion with a victory over Benji Radach. Horwich trains with Team Quest and is primarily a grappler, with over 80% of his wins by way of submission.
Neither fighter is particularly adept at striking. Look for this fight to hit the mat, and whoever can gain and hold top position should be able to submit the other. This line is well set, in my opinion: Miller is the big favorite due to superior skills at gaining and holding top position, yet Horwich is a live underdog with solid submission skills. No action recommended.
As always, remember to play within your bankroll by using good bankroll management techinques. Several plays here are at the extreme ends of the betting spectrum: we're risking a lot to win a little or risking a little to win a lot. With patience (betting is all one big session, individual event profits don't matter at all) and appropriate bankroll management (to eliminate any possibility of going broke by overbetting our stake) we show a profit in the long term. For more details on becoming a smart MMA bettor, read the series of articles in our
MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series. You can also stay up to date with the latest MMA and UFC odds directly via the MMAjunkie.com
UFC Odds page.
Performify's Picks for UFC 90:
- Anderson Silva -650 : 13u to win 2u
- Junior Dos Santos: .5u to win 3u
- Sean Sherk -250: 2.5u to win 1u
- Hermes Franca -185: .74u to win .4u
- Josh Burkman -220: 1.1u to win .5u
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