i do agree with your line of thinking in that if you have a fight where nobody would be terribly surprised by one side winning over the other, the dog may be the best play.... its finding those particular fights that can be tough because not every card has them...
That's the trick, mogo. I agree that you have to be choosy, and I don't want my words to come across like every card has multiple live dogs. But as was the case with Rampage vs Griffin, no one I spoke with said he would be surprised by the outcome because they could see Griffin winning EVEN THOUGH Rampage was likely to win. That's the criteria for betting a dog in MMA. And at 2-to-1 on Griffin, I was more than happy to risk it.
:cheers: