UFC 265 Picks
- Thread starter Andy
- Start date
Andy
Pretty much a regular
Thoughts...
I had a bet on Johns a few weeks back before it was canceled for covid in the dos santos camp. unfortunately i'm not getting as good of odds here but I still like it. Dos Santos has one path and its the submission game and I usually find it easy to fade guys like that in this day and age in the ufc. esp if the other fighter is pretty well rounded and has some good wrestling so as to not put himself in much danger for a sub. I see Johns winning a boring fight, out-pointing dos santos with his striking.
Penne is the biggest gamble of any of my plays and the odds reflect that. Kowalkiewicz will look to keep this standing and out strike penne while penne will seek to grapple and put this to the ground. Kowalkiewicz is a declining fighter whose lost her last 4. penne won her last fight in a close dec after coming off a long layoff from susp. I just see penne having a good shot to control this on the ground and take adv of a fighter who doesn't have much left it appears. value play.
Rodriguez follows a general trend on this card and overall of me picking guys who have multiple paths, generally well rounded, more of a wrestling base (score with takedowns) who just need to fade one path guys who need a big power shot or sub finish. Morales has the power to end this, thats his path. Rodriguez i do believe is the better overall fighter and he does have the better wrestling and ground game. Think he will mix in some kicks too as morales is vulnerable to those. I like this at coinflip odds.
Song is a popular pick, he's a young high upside striker with power. But I think this is a bad fight stylistically for him. Kenney is aggressive and will seek to pressure song which I think will give song trouble. If this goes to the ground Kenney will have a decisive adv there with his ju jitsu. Another coinflip odds fight, think kenney finds a way to frustrate the young song and avoid his power.
We have a rematch with Torres and Hill and I dont see any reason why the outcome would change. Torres is the faster, higher paced, higher volume, evasive, aggressive, stronger, and more technical fighter. She also has a chin that should handle whatever power hill throws at her. Prove me wrong Hill, I dont see it though. Torres easy.
Luque is very exciting, a fan fav. With a win he may get a title shot. Another coinflipper where I'm going with the grappler/wrestler who will have a stylistic advantage. luque has struggled with wrestlers who seek to get him down and control it. Can Luque stay at range enough to land something? Possible, he is very dangerous. But until I see him able to defend getting taken down Its hard to like him vs guys like Chiesa.
This really is a good card, lot of closely lined fights. If you can find an edge here or there though that makes for some solid value. Probably why I'm playing so many fights, way more than normal. Aldo is quick, a heavy hitter, well rounded, and should be able to out-strike and out-point the smaller Munhoz. Munhoz best attribute may be his durability/chin so I doubt theres a finish. I think this being 3 rounds benefits Aldo who has worn out later in fights, the 5 rounders.
Other fights...
I expect Gane to take care of business but who wants to lay that chalk against a guy like lewis? you either play lewis by KO or pass on the fight. I do hope lewis lands that bomb, if for nothing else but the interview afterwords. he's also fighting from his hometown which would be amazing for him and the crowd if he lands one.
everything else is a definitive pass for me. herman has some dog value if he can avoid the early ko, BIG if though. Fiziev line is too wide. Kape missed weight, can't back him. Osbourne may be worth a flier. Lean to leonardo but gatto is a total wildcard as theres not much info on her.
GL everyone. I'm heading to the golf course this afternoon and will hopefully be done in time for the espn prelims. Plan on hitting up my fav ufc bar, Maloney's, here in kc for the ppv. Hopefully enjoy a nice cigar, beer, and some cashes on these fights.
I had a bet on Johns a few weeks back before it was canceled for covid in the dos santos camp. unfortunately i'm not getting as good of odds here but I still like it. Dos Santos has one path and its the submission game and I usually find it easy to fade guys like that in this day and age in the ufc. esp if the other fighter is pretty well rounded and has some good wrestling so as to not put himself in much danger for a sub. I see Johns winning a boring fight, out-pointing dos santos with his striking.
Penne is the biggest gamble of any of my plays and the odds reflect that. Kowalkiewicz will look to keep this standing and out strike penne while penne will seek to grapple and put this to the ground. Kowalkiewicz is a declining fighter whose lost her last 4. penne won her last fight in a close dec after coming off a long layoff from susp. I just see penne having a good shot to control this on the ground and take adv of a fighter who doesn't have much left it appears. value play.
Rodriguez follows a general trend on this card and overall of me picking guys who have multiple paths, generally well rounded, more of a wrestling base (score with takedowns) who just need to fade one path guys who need a big power shot or sub finish. Morales has the power to end this, thats his path. Rodriguez i do believe is the better overall fighter and he does have the better wrestling and ground game. Think he will mix in some kicks too as morales is vulnerable to those. I like this at coinflip odds.
Song is a popular pick, he's a young high upside striker with power. But I think this is a bad fight stylistically for him. Kenney is aggressive and will seek to pressure song which I think will give song trouble. If this goes to the ground Kenney will have a decisive adv there with his ju jitsu. Another coinflip odds fight, think kenney finds a way to frustrate the young song and avoid his power.
We have a rematch with Torres and Hill and I dont see any reason why the outcome would change. Torres is the faster, higher paced, higher volume, evasive, aggressive, stronger, and more technical fighter. She also has a chin that should handle whatever power hill throws at her. Prove me wrong Hill, I dont see it though. Torres easy.
Luque is very exciting, a fan fav. With a win he may get a title shot. Another coinflipper where I'm going with the grappler/wrestler who will have a stylistic advantage. luque has struggled with wrestlers who seek to get him down and control it. Can Luque stay at range enough to land something? Possible, he is very dangerous. But until I see him able to defend getting taken down Its hard to like him vs guys like Chiesa.
This really is a good card, lot of closely lined fights. If you can find an edge here or there though that makes for some solid value. Probably why I'm playing so many fights, way more than normal. Aldo is quick, a heavy hitter, well rounded, and should be able to out-strike and out-point the smaller Munhoz. Munhoz best attribute may be his durability/chin so I doubt theres a finish. I think this being 3 rounds benefits Aldo who has worn out later in fights, the 5 rounders.
Other fights...
I expect Gane to take care of business but who wants to lay that chalk against a guy like lewis? you either play lewis by KO or pass on the fight. I do hope lewis lands that bomb, if for nothing else but the interview afterwords. he's also fighting from his hometown which would be amazing for him and the crowd if he lands one.
everything else is a definitive pass for me. herman has some dog value if he can avoid the early ko, BIG if though. Fiziev line is too wide. Kape missed weight, can't back him. Osbourne may be worth a flier. Lean to leonardo but gatto is a total wildcard as theres not much info on her.
GL everyone. I'm heading to the golf course this afternoon and will hopefully be done in time for the espn prelims. Plan on hitting up my fav ufc bar, Maloney's, here in kc for the ppv. Hopefully enjoy a nice cigar, beer, and some cashes on these fights.
Andy
Pretty much a regular
4-3 +1.04
winners were all no doubters. kenney was a split dec loss but he prob did lose. chiesa just dumb fight iq to get reversed and choked out like he did. nobody had luque by sub that was unexpected. overall a winning card so i'll take it. slow grind continues.
2021 Record
37-27-1 +1.47 units
