U.S. OPEN (USGA) FORM SHEETS & Discussion

BringInTheLefty

Pretty much a regular
Los Angeles Country Club
Par: 70
Distance: 7,423 yards




Los Angeles hosts its first U.S. Open in 75 years



I’ll have my form sheet up by Sunday night after the RBC has been completed
 
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my top 3:


1: Tyrrell Hatton
Hatton hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 in any of his last 6 tournaments
he finished T3 at the RBC Canadian Open
he’s one of those players who seems to step up in tough conditions and he has the short game to contend on this type of course.
his ball striking had been really sharp off the tee and has matched it with great iron play outside of The Memorial



2: Mito Pereira
don’t be surprised if he leads the field in greens in regulation this week
will do a lot more than just make his first U.S. Open cut
finished 3rd in his most recent LIV start



3: Wyndham Clark
he has 4 top-12 finishes in his last 7 starts hits it very long
is hitting his mid-irons very well right now
solid chipper & putter
a big time sleeper this week…
 
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The average age for a US Open winner over the last 10 years is 28.3.


All of the last 10 US Open winners had already posted a top 25 in the event


6 of the last 7 US Open champions hadn't won a Major before
7 of the last 10 were majorless going into the week


7 of the last 10 winners had at least one week off in the previous fortnight ahead of their US Open win
 
Los Angeles Country Club
Par: 70
Distance: 7,423 yards




Los Angeles hosts its first U.S. Open in 75 years



I’ll have my form sheet up by Sunday night after the RBC has been completed
Ahhh a fellow Google Sheet User!!

I love it
 
Last 3 holes, all 500 yd par 4s, will be filthy.

But it looks like there are quite a few birdie holes:
#1, reachable par 5
#3 419 yd par 4 leaves a wedge in these guys hands
#6 drivable par 4
#8 only 537 yd par 5
#9 171 yd par 3 which is 43 yards deep but narrow. Guys dialed in will fire at this flag.
#10 409 yd par 4, another wedge
#12 380 yd par 4
#14 Long par 5 may not be reachable but everyone will be putting for birdie
#15 Shortest par 3, rumor that they might set this up at 80 yds one day. These guys will be licking their chops

I can see how Homa shot a 61 here under non-Open conditions. Half the holes you can be looking for birdie, half you hang on for dear life. Only a Par 70 so 63 could be in play as low round if someone scorches the front. With no wind in the forecast this course's greatest defenses are unfamiliarity and US Open pressure. My guess is 6 under playoff, 7 under wins.
 
I think anyone who shoots even par will be stoked. Last three holes will cause nightmares. I will be looking at guys who tee off on the back as daily plays, those holes coming mid round will be a blessing
 
I think anyone who shoots even par will be stoked. Last three holes will cause nightmares. I will be looking at guys who tee off on the back as daily plays, those holes coming mid round will be a blessing
This makes some sense. If you walk off 18 no worse than +1 or +2 you have to be thinking a round in the 60s is your target with the easier front nine left to navigate.
 
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Listening to the NLU preview podcast, it sounds like the #1 skill is going to be precision up and down the bag, with maybe a little less emphasis on putting. They make the case, and I agree, that the winner is not going to be able to fake it around and get lucky. This screams Scheffler (even with his putting woes), Brooks, and Rahm. I know that's some great insight, picking the 3 favorites. I won't have many bets on them, if any, but they will be part of my DFS lineups in some shape. One thing that may actually impact Brooks is that pace of play is expected to be obscenely slow

I'm considering a MC bet for Rory. There will be as many as 10-12 wedge shots per round, and many of them partial, and Rory just isn't a good wedge player. Plus throw in all the drama of the last 2 weeks, I could see another performance similar to Augusta

Moving past the 3 faves, guys I'm looking at: Cantlay, Xander, Morikawa (think he's actually decent value for a win bet), Hovland, Hideki, Adam Scott, Rose, Fleetwood, and Cam Smith. All of those guys are excellent strategists and have all the shots. I'm warming up to Spieth as well, because of all the different shots that will be necessary and the relatively generous fairways

Guys I'm looking to fade: Rory, Homa, Hatton, JT, and Cam Young

I have some interest in top 20/10/5 bets on Rickie and Shane Lowry

I want to like DJ, this course would have been in his wheelhouse a few years ago, but he seems so apathetic that I can't bet him, though he may accidentally play his way into a top 10
 
Listening to the NLU preview podcast, it sounds like the #1 skill is going to be precision up and down the bag, with maybe a little less emphasis on putting. They make the case, and I agree, that the winner is not going to be able to fake it around and get lucky. This screams Scheffler (even with his putting woes), Brooks, and Rahm. I know that's some great insight, picking the 3 favorites. I won't have many bets on them, if any, but they will be part of my DFS lineups in some shape. One thing that may actually impact Brooks is that pace of play is expected to be obscenely slow

I'm considering a MC bet for Rory. There will be as many as 10-12 wedge shots per round, and many of them partial, and Rory just isn't a good wedge player. Plus throw in all the drama of the last 2 weeks, I could see another performance similar to Augusta

Moving past the 3 faves, guys I'm looking at: Cantlay, Xander, Morikawa (think he's actually decent value for a win bet), Hovland, Hideki, Adam Scott, Rose, Fleetwood, and Cam Smith. All of those guys are excellent strategists and have all the shots. I'm warming up to Spieth as well, because of all the different shots that will be necessary and the relatively generous fairways

Guys I'm looking to fade: Rory, Homa, Hatton, JT, and Cam Young

I have some interest in top 20/10/5 bets on Rickie and Shane Lowry

I want to like DJ, this course would have been in his wheelhouse a few years ago, but he seems so apathetic that I can't bet him, though he may accidentally play his way into a top 10
Great stuff.

One point I'm with you on 100% is Rory struggling this week. This course is most definitely not in his wheelhouse.
 
Really enjoyed reading this thread as usual gents. Great insight and a few laughs.

My top plays:

John Rahm Top 10 (+105)

Max Homa Top 20 (+115)

Scottie Scheffler Top 10 (-140)

Matty Fitz Top 30 (-140)

I don’t know why, but I’m feeling a replay of the Riviera. Homa isn’t playing that well, but him playing a major at this place feels like destiny. Obviously his record on Cali courses is well noted. Out of principle, I had to play this. Rahm…kinda feels like he’s been overlooked for this one. Maybe I’m just convincing myself of that, but a lot of focus on Scheffler, Koepka, Homa, etc…Could easily see Rahm winning this and I like the plus money at top 10. A few great points made in this thread about Scheffler and this course..putting may not be as important as it usually is. Strike the ball well, make pars, watch other guys eliminate themselves. Scheffler should hang around and have a chance to win it on Sunday. Fitzy top 30 was another principle play. Had to. Good luck gents.
 
Really enjoyed reading this thread as usual gents. Great insight and a few laughs.

My top plays:

John Rahm Top 10 (+105)

Max Homa Top 20 (+115)

Scottie Scheffler Top 10 (-140)

Matty Fitz Top 30 (-140)

I don’t know why, but I’m feeling a replay of the Riviera. Homa isn’t playing that well, but him playing a major at this place feels like destiny. Obviously his record on Cali courses is well noted. Out of principle, I had to play this. Rahm…kinda feels like he’s been overlooked for this one. Maybe I’m just convincing myself of that, but a lot of focus on Scheffler, Koepka, Homa, etc…Could easily see Rahm winning this and I like the plus money at top 10. A few great points made in this thread about Scheffler and this course..putting may not be as important as it usually is. Strike the ball well, make pars, watch other guys eliminate themselves. Scheffler should hang around and have a chance to win it on Sunday. Fitzy top 30 was another principle play. Had to. Good luck gents.
Great stuff.

A replay of Riv would be fun.
 
Anyone catch that Svensson pitch? Came out crazy hot, past the pin and pulled back 20 yds, about 2/3 of the way from where he started. Combo of technique, slope and fast greens.

FYI- Peacock has early live coverage.
 
Obviously Rory is the consensus fade play but I'm gonna try to fade Kaymer live when I can, likely means betting on Stu Cink which isn't thrilling but I certainly trust him more than Kaymer.
 
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