Tuesdays Fun....and Discussion

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SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Tue 6/3


</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>901</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
A. Harang
</TD><TD>-1.5 +152</TD><TD>-105</TD><TD>OVER 10 -101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>902</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
A. Eaton
</TD><TD>+1.5 -162</TD><TD>-103</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -109</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>903</TD><TD>Houston Astros
W. Rodriguez
</TD><TD>-1.5 +156</TD><TD>-104</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 +105</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>904</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Dumatrait
</TD><TD>+1.5 -166</TD><TD>-104</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -115</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>905</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
B. Badenhop
</TD><TD>+1.5 -134</TD><TD>+160</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -108</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>906</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
J. Campillo
</TD><TD>-1.5 +124</TD><TD>-168</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -102</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>907</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
K. Lohse
</TD><TD>-1.5 +155</TD><TD>-110</TD><TD>OVER 9 +107</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>908</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
O. Perez
</TD><TD>+1.5 -165</TD><TD>+102</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -117</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>909</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
R. Johnson
</TD><TD>-1.5 +141</TD><TD>-115</TD><TD>OVER 9 +104</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>910</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
S. Mcclung
</TD><TD>+1.5 -151</TD><TD>+107</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -114</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>911</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
J. Marquis
</TD><TD>-1.5 +142</TD><TD>-120</TD><TD>OVER 8 -120</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>912</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
W. Ledezma
</TD><TD>+1.5 -152</TD><TD>+112</TD><TD>UNDER 8 +110</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>913</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
J. Francis
</TD><TD>+1.5 -181</TD><TD>+124</TD><TD>OVER 8 -111</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:10 PM</TD><TD>914</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
B. Penny
</TD><TD>-1.5 +171</TD><TD>-132</TD><TD>UNDER 8 +101</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>915</TD><TD>New York Mets
P. Martinez
</TD><TD>-1.5 +121</TD><TD>-142</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:15 PM</TD><TD>916</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
B. Zito
</TD><TD>+1.5 -131</TD><TD>+134</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -111</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>917</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
R. Halladay
</TD><TD>+1.5 -186</TD><TD>+115</TD><TD>OVER 8 +109</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>918</TD><TD>New York Yankees
J. Chamberlain
</TD><TD>-1.5 +176</TD><TD>-123</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -119</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>919</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
M. Garza
</TD><TD>+1.5 -174</TD><TD>+114</TD><TD>OVER 9 -122</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>920</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
J. Masterson
</TD><TD>-1.5 +164</TD><TD>-122</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +112</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>925</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
Z. Greinke
</TD><TD>+1.5 -210</TD><TD>+102</TD><TD>OVER 8 -109</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>926</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
G. Floyd
</TD><TD>-1.5 +190</TD><TD>-110</TD><TD>UNDER 8 -101</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>927</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
D. Willis
</TD><TD>+1.5 -167</TD><TD>+115</TD><TD>OVER 9 -103</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>928</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
D. Eveland
</TD><TD>-1.5 +157</TD><TD>-123</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -107</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 6/3</TD><TD>929</TD><TD>LAA Angels
J. Saunders
</TD><TD>+1.5 -172</TD><TD>+122</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 -101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:10 PM</TD><TD>930</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
E. Bedard
</TD><TD>-1.5 +162</TD><TD>-130</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -109</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:cheers:

RARE NL's in :
Cle @ Texas (Westbrook vs ?)
Balt @ Minny (?? vs Slowley )
 
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Probably a good idea to fade both NY teams . Pedro @ -140 is insane IMO as Zito seemingly is on the right track. Have to wait and see what happens tonight but Perez getting chased in the 1st certainly doesnt help when Pedro is probably going to be held to 90 pitches IF he is effective . While we all love Joba fact is his pitch count is real low bewteen 60-70 pitches and the pen is an unknown . Halladay loves pitching @ Yankee Stadium and while the Yanks are hitting well they stranded somany runners on this road trip it was insane. Not a great flight back to NY after the loss today and jays come back EAST after two terribly tough losses themselves had a day off to get refreshed.....maybe 1st 5 UNDER NYY-Tor ?
 
OVER for a huge bet in Philadelphia. Both pens were used a lot tonight. Harang had a good numbers start against Philly early but he was very lucky in that game. The Phillies normally crush him and they'll crush him tommorrow. The Reds will certainly get their share of runs off Eaton. 9-7 thriller at the Bank tommorrow.

I like the Pirates tommorrow as Dumatrait has been strong as of late and it's Wandy on the road.

The Giants are intriguing as well since you have to guess the Mets pen will be used a lot tonight and you just don't know what Martinez will be like in this first game back.

The Jays are an autoplay. Halladay at +$$$ with the Yankees middle relief having to play a prominent role tommorrow.

Angels +122
 
I know Penny hasn't been great lately, fully expect a turnaround sometime soon but Francis and the Rocks are in freefall. This looks awfully cheap going against a team that is on the verge of losing their 8th straight road game.
 
Kmacc said:
I know Penny hasn't been great lately, fully expect a turnaround sometime soon but Francis and the Rocks are in freefall. This looks awfully cheap going against a team that is on the verge of losing their 8th straight road game.
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COl is in freefall and it alot of it hs to do with there pitching . To many times the SP have put them down 3,4,5 runs quickly and other times the pen couldnt hold leads. The offense has done okay but stranded alot of guys. LAD vs a LHP is always a plus but I guess my point is the big angle here is Brad Penny . Really the way COL will win seems to be if they get a big lead early 4,5,6 runs in the first few innings . Whihc if Penny isnt right I guess could be a possibility here.....

Definetly wondered why the opened so low myself....:shake:
 
Agree SN also looking at that total of 8, why does it seem every Dodger total is either 8 or 8.5. I know they play in pitcher friendly parks and the offense isn't great but at some point don't you have to factor in the gascans that are taking the hill. I wouldn't be shocked to see one team post 8 runs themselves. LAD -1.5 and over 8 would be my gut feeling here.

No way the Mets should be laying this price and like the Phillies a lot vs Harang who just doesn't seem to have the life on his fastball thus far this year. Eaton pitched well vs the Reds earlier this year and fly ball pitchers will struggle in this park. Lots of guys left on and hard hit balls all night. May have to dip back into the Over.
 
Interestimg game @ ATL specifically the total .

After today one would guess the first instinct is to play the over . I did like the UNDER 10 but it seemed fishy IMO and I actually had enough discipline to pass on it . By fishy I mean it seemed higher then expected and with what seemed like a fairly heavy under bias the total really didnt move . So the game found a way to go over late cause of the inept pens but alot of runners were stranded all game.

Anyway Campillo has been excellent but the BLISTER issues are keeping him to about 70-75 pitches. Badenhop has been below medicore but one thing I like here is Badenhop is from ATLANTA if I recall correctly or the surrounding area. being he already pitched in ATL I would expect a better comfort level this time around. Look at this way 1st start ever in your hometown and you allow a 5 run 1st but after that just a solo shot to Chipper in the next 4 innings...so he didnt pitch as poorly as his line looks imo .....

Florida in the past 2 weeks has faced some good solid RHSP and produced little . Runs 3 ,3 ,4 ,5 ,7 and 3 but on few hits 8 , 7 , 9, 9 , 10 ,6 . The SP were Owings , Webb , Haren , Cain , @ Pelfrey and @ Myers . Campillo has allowed just 1 solo Hr for the only run in his 3 starts garnted innings were 6,4,5 but only 9 hits and no walks against 16 Ks. The guy is doing well .

ATL has scored 3runs or less in 7 of 11 themselves. Outside of Webb they havent hit much vs RHSP lately either.....

Silly trends " Marlins 5-1 UNDER on Tuesdays but Braves 9-0 UNDER on Tuesday !

Would like to look at the bullpen picture more and hope to see 10 here. Think about this Olsen has been real solid all year and Reyes is better then Badenhop yet they made todays game 10 .....

So strong LEAN to UNDER 9.5 @ ATL will almost definetly play if I see 10 RUNS..:cheers:

Also assume Runge is the UMP which leads me to like Florida even more as a dog since he seems to not treat home chalk well....
 
thinking about Over in Yankee land.

"Everybody" knows about Toronto's road total bias, and a Doc vs Joba clash is bound to feed into that. But I'm inclined to chuck the stats out on this one. Yanks a game below .500 for Joba's first start, are bound to give him some run support (offensive form is there), and I believe it would be wayward to think that Joba's going to be spared growing pains for his transition. Jays have actually totaled 5+ runs in 6 of their last 12 road games, a massive improvement on anything from last season.
 
angels +money vs a LHP, theyre 9-2 vs LHP this year (3-1 on the road) vs the M's who are 4-11 vs LHP this year (3-5 at home). Saunders off a poor start and expect a bounce back. Not the best #'s for Saunders vs the M's but they're 3-2 lifetime vs them. Bedard put together a good start and I'm sure he looks to keep it up. Under?


of course I've barely paid much attention over the last few weeks. my new job is definitely taking away from anytime I have to cap games but hopefully I can get back into it.
 
@ Fenway the way Garza has been dealing and Ortiz out for awhile I have to take interest in TB despite there lack of success @ Fenway (TB 9-42 L51 @ Boston-yikes!!). Masterson want to see what type of schedule he is on as in when did he start last for AAA . Thinking uncoventional here and TB-UNDER correlation. Garza has won and been decent in both outings @ Fenway as a Twinkie...

As I already mentioned with the Yankee situation limiting Joba pitch wise and the fact jays had a day off while Yanks fly home after a tough loss and trip . Jays are atractive with Halladay getting on track last 2 starts just 2 runs in 17 innings . His duel vs Wang earlier was the 1st time in awhile he allowed more then 1 earned at Yankee Stadium...L5 starts there 37 innings(at least 7 but once) 8 runs only 5 earned ....Interesting that Halladay opened fav for a brief minute Only knock on Tor is 6-13 in series openers so far but NYY only 8-11 themselves.....Under 1st 5 innings and possibly game ....Yanks hitting but stranding runners ..

If Padilla goes vs CLE has struggled in the past vs them. The Ranger pen is falling apart at the seems right now blowing consecutive games in the last leg of the game. Westbrook was throwing well before the injury and considering it was his 1st start back he was decent vs WSox...inconsistent track record away and @ Texas but a sinkerballer if on is a blessing there.....Rangers have won 10 of 1 when Padilla starts need to see how extended rest has effected him in the past . If Texas opens up favored then I like CLE....

Interesting scenario @ Chicago with the Guillen hoopla swirling. Floyd at home get this has allowed 10 hits in 30.1 innings and half came vs NYY in the crappiest weather ever and when the rain delay ended he came back and from what I recall NY didnt do shit vs him. Grienke hasnt faced CHI yet and is owed a WIN after the 5 run ninth was blown for him last week vs Minny. KC has won a couple now. Would lean towards KC but the CHI scenario could play out in either direction. Thome spoke and sounded as if the players were okay with Ozzie's comments as long as he recgnizes the guys are working hard to end the funk they are in....Under possibly ???

Out in Oak. Willis made 1 relief appearance since his DL return and command still seemed to be an issue . DET is 7-3 so far vs LHSP and while Eveland was shelled last time out I believe it was due mainly to the fact he was pitching on 8 days rest...So Willis in ability to throw strikes makes it hard for me to see value in DET even vs a LHSP coming off his worst start....lean A's....

Well Seattle hurt me this evening losing 4-2 . I just cant see value in LAA when there best case scenario seems to be 4 runs and with Bedard at home really could be more like 2 runs(34 inn 18 h 5 runs at home) . Saunders has been great for most of the year but so-so vs Seattle who supposedly hit LHSP well at least better then LAA does although Kendrick's return is a plus in that dept....

Harang vs Eaton is tough. As a poster mentioned think it was JumponBoard Harang really looked flat after his relief appearance on Sunday vs SD. So how does he bounce back ? Eaton generally has been solid this season and was good early on @ Cincy but different animal with these guys hitting and Bruce emerging. Philly terriblein Game 2s 6-13 vs Reds 11-8...think reds have the uppper had the next 3 days and think they can get 2 of them so leaning Reds no clue about the total...todays shopuld have opened 10 not 10.5 and think maybe this should be 9.5 not 10...

Interesting game @ Wash and lean the doggie . Nats dont have much offense but Lohse for the most part is two entirely different SP home and away . This isnt Webb and Haren . STL blew the game today and Nats 10-10 in series openers which is there best and have a day off...STL 5-1 as small road chalk buty Nats 9-3 as home doggies...the pens will decide this game so pick your poison...total seems but remember BC and tehe consecutive SHUTOUT Theory.....

Big Unit in a groove last 3 starts 20 innings and only 3 runs with 17 hits , 3bbs 24Ks...DEALIN! Granted we know how tough MILW is at home vs key LHSP but with McClung as the opposition tough to see value in that angle. MILW lucked out winning today coming back late down 3-1 and escaping a bases loaded jam in the 9th....Remmeber joJo reyes just came in last week and was excellent..but lost 1-0...

Marquis pitched well in his 2 starts @ Petco think the 2005 start was there. Anyway Marquis was less then medicore vs COL and less then medicore when he faced SD. Pods should have some momentum and I wonder should I play 1st inn score here? Cubs vs a LHSP doesnt hurt but the carry over momentum isnt the same as if it was the road team...still might dabble...over looks interesting as well...ledezma to build off his best start and have to like SD I think even with Cubs facing a LHSP

Might entertain COL despite Penny ridiculous track record vs them . It just seems the price is to cheap and Penny recent starts havent been that good...on paper why play COL I guess ? Francis was excellent the 1sttime he pitched at Dodger stadium. As KMacc pointed out the OVER looks enticing

Zito has progressively been better since the return to the rotation and he faces old pitching coach Peterson as well. Who knows what to expect from Pedro not only is off the DL and on a pitch count but he also made just 5 starts last year so he is way behind IMO , way behind. Mets had to go to Vargas after Peez stunk up the joint . Playing SF here and possibly the over .......

Thats my initial feel...:cheers:
 
the D-Rays and Garza +money vs boston, 3-0 lifetime, I dont know anything about this masterson guy but two solid outtings this year. who's got the goods?
 
Considering Garza, and I'll be interested to see what Slowey is, too...

I like that over in New York, too, BC. Wait to see what the weather is, but that is definately on the radar...
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
thinking about Over in Yankee land.

"Everybody" knows about Toronto's road total bias, and a Doc vs Joba clash is bound to feed into that. But I'm inclined to chuck the stats out on this one. Yanks a game below .500 for Joba's first start, are bound to give him some run support (offensive form is there), and I believe it would be wayward to think that Joba's going to be spared growing pains for his transition. Jays have actually totaled 5+ runs in 6 of their last 12 road games, a massive improvement on anything from last season.
Click to expand...

Big issue with NYY is hits with runners in scoring position. They are hitting medicore SP lately but they havent even come close to maximizing there run potential.....Jays have been all or nothing from what I recall...Think NYY had 50 hits in 4 games @ Minny producing 19 runs in 4 games...4.75 runs on 12.5 hits...Last 6 times NY had 9 hits or less which we can reasonable expect vs Halladay they scored 2,2,6,1,4,1 and the game they scored 6 is the game vs Washburn which they scored a bunch of runs in the b8th off Seattles pen theyhad just 8 hits probably 4 that inning w/o checking......

Though I agree with the angle of an expected under and see points in your contrarian approach....if it holds 8 runs and I get 4 runs for the 1st 5 innings probably take the under but I would advise taking NYY team total under if its 4runs...granted NYY pen could add some runs as well....fence play IMO:cheers:
 
if I recall correctly last time the Rays got swept @ fenway when they last met with the Red Sox in a similar situation, battling for/trying to hold on to 1st. of course the rays only need to win one of 3 this time around.
 
SportsNut said:
Garza definetly interesting but TB 9-42 L51 games @ Fenway !!:shake:
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With a stat like that, when do you consider that this is a legitimate Rays team and not an expansion team? It's a serious question and not a smart-ass comment...
 
counselor said:
With a stat like that, when do you consider that this is a legitimate Rays team and not an expansion team? It's a serious question and not a smart-ass comment...
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When trying to weigh something like this you have to acknowledge that TB was beyond terrible on the road for years and usually even worse after the All Star break.

I have long been aware of how bad they were at Yankee Stadium and Fenway . One difference was @ Fenway you could get them cheaper then NY and they might have been even worse vs Boston.

So basically the key is two fold. First look to see if they are more competitive from series to series @ Fenway and then look to see if the results vary from pre AS break to post AS break. As I mentioned rays would lose nearly every road game after the break in recent season....

To tired to due the work but I think the TIDE has turned for TB its evident in there play to date . Mostly its because of the consistency from its SP. Which in years past young SP struggle away so whne your playing @ NYY or @ Boston its going to be magnified because for the most part these were the two best teams at home the past decade and TB was the worst ..(worst away team)...

With the unbalanced schedule 51 games isnt very long ago . They played 3 times this year so 48 games is probably the previous 5 seasons with TB probably playing @ Fenway 9 or 10 times a year...

Last time they came to Fenway I know Boston wanted some "payback" after getting swept @ TB where Boston has been below 500 in the past few years . Anyway Ortiz's absence I think levels the playing field as does the SP matchups ...Lester vs Shields in game 3 and this one are winnable games for TB. Last time they opened ona Friday and I remember this clearly cause I had Boston large but the game was delayed by rain for along while. So TB probably flew in late Thursday or early Friday and then had to wait till 10-11 PMto start a game. Huge edge for the home team . Then Beckett got a rematch vs Shields who outdueled him in TB so they had that edge since they lost the 1st meeting and last game was Lester vs Kz off the DL. SO really TB didnt have much going for them at that point when they met and had just swept Boston at home. Since that series TB is 19-7 (5-4 away losing two 1 run games @ STL) so they are probably at there high point of the season. Really outside of the last game @Oak they lost away because of the pen ..4 of the 7 losses happened in the late innings..

Plus while Masterson is talented he is still young and raw , very much an unknown as far as consistency goes......

Dont think TB is anywhere near the 9-42 team its been previously ...at some point (soon) they should pull out a little winning streak @ Fenway when they become undervalued .....

As I said look at the last 2 series of 2007 in AUgust and Sept . Sox win 3-0 , 2-1 ( Sox score twice in the b9th)and then lose 6-5 (TB wins)then in Sept TB wins 1-0 , loses 16-10 but lead 9-8 after 5 innings and lost 5-4 which they scored 4 runs in the 1st later giving back 3 only to lose on two in the b9th. Percival had filled that closers void but is on the DL now but at least ortiz is gone as well......in general TB pen was a huge issue on the road for years and that has been cleaned up. TB was 2-4 L6 @ Fenway in 2007 losing twice in the last atbat , leading after 5 innings in another and being shutout 3-0 which they allowed a run in the 7th and 8th innings.....

:shake:
 
counselor said:
Good stuff. Thanks...

Always wondered about this type of thing...
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Just my take. BetCrimes is the King of understanding saturation points . My take is the gap is clearly narrowing as TB just being able to compete @ Fenway shows progress eventually the wins will come...:shake:

Sort of shows us why DUE theories can get us hurt though
 
Weather, Ump and odds at the time will decide my leaping or not at that Yanks Over.

As for Boston/TBY, Garza had an average outing against the Sox in Tampa this season, and last season while he won in Boston (with better stats), Tavarez was his opposite, which kinda telegraphs how into that last game of the regular season the Sox were.

Game 2 would seem the obvious game Boston wins, but if Tampa loses Tuesday, I think they'll upset the apple cart Wednesday (an ESPN game). Beckett has an ordinary home ERA, and Tampa have seen him enough. Masterton has the familiarity advantage over them.
 
One thing with Garza vs Boston this year it was his 1st start off the DL so expectations have to be low IMO. If you look at it he had a rough 2nd inning when he lost the strike zone walking 3 straight guys only 2 hits but three runs scored . Outside of this inning he allowed 3 hits and no walks or runs . Since then 1 bad start in 6 starts and a bunch of real good ones 39.1 inn and 11 runs allowed only 32 hits....one terrible start 4.1 inn 10 h 6 runs...so the other 5 starts 35 inn 22hits 5 runs which is bout 1.30 ERA and his last outing he had 10Ks....one of my fav under the radar guys...I think its reasonable for him to go 6-7 innings here if he is pitching well...

With a diluted lineup , issues in the pen as Okie was terrible today and a rookie SP I have to give the edge to TB with Garza pitching so well at least 5 inn ML nod....

GL --now off to sleep
 
Poohdres/Cubs stats


San Diego
Has had 7 previous instances this season of playing a home game off conceding a 6+ run total in their previous game which was also at home. In the subsequent game they are 7-2 SU, their 2 losses coming on the only 2 occasions they failed to total at least 2 runs (1 run totals both times). They have conceded more than 2 runs just once in the 9 subsequent games (U/O 7-2), allowing an avg of 2.66 runs/game.
Peavy started 3 of the 9 games (1-2 SU), SD being 6-0 SU with anyone else starting (incl. 1 start by Ledezma).

After enduring a couple of further losses in the wake of their GM going off in the media, SD has since gone 6-3 SU, with Monday's result making for their first instance of consecutive losses.

Umpire
SD is 9-1 their last 10 with this Ump BHP (only loss on the road), and while CHC is itself 5-1 their last 6 with the same Ump (only loss vs SD), every one of those games was played in Chicago.

Home teams priced from -120 to +130 (narrow favs/dogs) are 6-0 SU with this Ump this season, and 23-14 SU since 05.


Chicago
Has won 8 straight, but as a team has trodden a rather obvious path through the season ever since they hit the road after starting out 14-6 SU

5-9 SU (had 3 home games sandwiched by 5 then 6 roadies)
8-2 SU (10 homies)
2-4 SU (6 roadies)
7-0 SU (7 homies)
1-0 SU (current road trip)

Based on the evidence (holding their breath at home, taking a breather on the road), anyone thinking the Cubs come out of this road trip with simply a winning mark, let alone with their current win streak intact, is being rather optimistic.

Marquis
Has yet to record a win as the POR on the road this season (in fact, in 10 starts he's yet to have a POR win against any team other than Pittsburgh, and that incl's having faced the woeful Rockies twice).
He has a 6.06 ERA & 1.75 WHIP over his last 6 starts, w/the Cubs having lost his last 3 road starts.
Forgetting Pittsburgh (he has their number) & Colorado (WS hangover), opposing teams have scored 7, 5, 10, 4 & 5 run totals in his starts this season.
 
Considering TB is 9-42 in L51, you are definitely taking the unconventional route here. But what counselor said holds some weight. TB this yr is not TB of the past.
 
Out in Oak. Willis made 1 relief appearance since his DL return and command still seemed to be an issue . DET is 7-3 so far vs LHSP and while Eveland was shelled last time out I believe it was due mainly to the fact he was pitching on 8 days rest...So Willis in ability to throw strikes makes it hard for me to see value in DET even vs a LHSP coming off his worst start....lean A's....
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To add to your point of Willis' inability to throw K's, Oakland prides itself on its patience at the plate. Willis will put runners on-base for Oakland. What I do not know is Oakland's RISP stats. Anyone have this?
 
If Padilla goes vs CLE has struggled in the past vs them. The Ranger pen is falling apart at the seems right now blowing consecutive games in the last leg of the game. Westbrook was throwing well before the injury and considering it was his 1st start back he was decent vs WSox...inconsistent track record away and @ Texas but a sinkerballer if on is a blessing there.....Rangers have won 10 of 1 when Padilla starts need to see how extended rest has effected him in the past . If Texas opens up favored then I like CLE....

Interesting scenario @ Chicago with the Guillen hoopla swirling. Floyd at home get this has allowed 10 hits in 30.1 innings and half came vs NYY in the crappiest weather ever and when the rain delay ended he came back and from what I recall NY didnt do shit vs him. Grienke hasnt faced CHI yet and is owed a WIN after the 5 run ninth was blown for him last week vs Minny. KC has won a couple now. Would lean towards KC but the CHI scenario could play out in either direction. Thome spoke and sounded as if the players were okay with Ozzie's comments as long as he recgnizes the guys are working hard to end the funk they are in....Under possibly ???
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Texas BP is falling apart, but they have been providing run support for Padilla. I like the over here.

The under with KC/CWS seems logical. Floyd has been stout, and as you mentioned KC should be playing for Grienke as they blew the 5-run cushion vs Minny. The fact that CWS has yet to see Grienke this season makes me like Grienke vs CWS bats even more. I dislike the total being lower than 9, but a very compelling case to be made for the under here.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Considering TB is 9-42 in L51, you are definitely taking the unconventional route here. But what counselor said holds some weight. TB this yr is not TB of the past.
Click to expand...


Thats just my strong lean to be honest one thing I do tend to shy away from is playing so called "public" underdogs no matter the sport. For the logical reasoning that the term public was coined to describe bettors who basically were playing all favs (the its looks so easy they cant lose mentality)so for them to play an underdog they are applying the same mentality......

Somewhat suprised here that the line dropped..

and public dogs like DET and TEX lost yesterday....

Something I would advise people to keep in mind...:shake:
 
Blue_Chip said:
To add to your point of Willis' inability to throw K's, Oakland prides itself on its patience at the plate. Willis will put runners on-base for Oakland. What I do not know is Oakland's RISP stats. Anyone have this?
Click to expand...

Right now tough to weigh Oak's previous stats offensively . They have Chavez back and there top prospect Gonzalez in the majors but both are LH . Its reasonable to think that a young player will struggle more in the eraly stages vs a LHP and the same for a guy coming off a long , long DL stint. They have a slew of LHB's with Thomas and M. Sweeney on the DL.

The keys are going to be IMO three RH hitters for Oakland when facing LHSP :

Bobby Crosby .266 2hr 7 Rbi 6 2bs . Crosby I feel is going to get better as the year goes on with the exception of I wonder how he plays in SEPT since he has missed so much time in recent years does fatigue catch up to him at that point ?
Emil Brown .303 , 1 2b 1 Hr 10Rbis's : Problem is despite nice stats so-so run production and remember guys that HR was in the opening series in Japan off Lester . So 20 hits only 2 XHB .
Mark Ellis .145 1 Hr 6 Rbi (8/55). Last year .313 1hr 28rbi (47-150)

and even :

Kurt Suzuki : 232 0hr 1 rbi . Suzuki was one of the RARE RHB to be terrible against LHP. HE did have decent power only 8 hist but 3 Hrs and 3 doubles in 2007 which hasnt shown up yet . So he has improved but he needs to do more...

By looking at there RBI totals you know they arent hitting good with runners in scoring poistion. For the future simply seeing a hitters RBI levels can tell you how well a hitter does with M.O.B. / R.I.S.P...

So without checking hitting with RISP / MOB we knew they arent doing well in that area at least when facing a LHSP.

I did some quick research on ESPN.com great for stat breakdowns . They have the two Sweeney's Ryan and Mike on the DL plus Big Hurt. Well that is basically there best core of hitters with RISP and MOB.

RISP-
Ryan Sweeney 16/41 with 20 RBI's
Emil Brown 19/56 with 31 RBI's but clearly more damage vs RHP
Frank Thomas 6/18 with 9 RBI's
Mike Sweeney 8/24 with 9 RBI's.
Bobby Crosby 15/61 with 29 RBI's , low avg 246 but great production



They are 9-11 in 20 games vs LHSP.

They scored only 3.1 runs with a .244 avg / .314 OBP the key was cleary good pitching from there staff .

They allowed 3.2 runs (remember Eveland just allowed Tor a 12 spot---3.2 x20= 64 runs -12 spot 52 runs in 19 games or 2.74 runs per ) .230 BAA/.299OBP. So basically they outpitched the opposition when facing a LHSP and I would imagine most of the wins came at home.

This lineup assuming Chavez DH's , Hannahan plays 3rd , and your OF is Brown , Cust , and Gonzalez.....Barton at 1st base

So far vs LHP in 2008 the expected current lineup is :

89-411 .217 AVG 7 HRs 40 RBI
18 2Bs 2 3Bs
48BBs 74Ks 43 runs scored

At home 6-4 vs LHSP (5-2 since signing Big Hurt although his missed some time now). neutral field (Japan) 1-0 . Away 2-7 . On the road they scored just 20 runs in games started by LHSP but 9 came in an early game vs Sabathia so the other 8 games produced 11 Runs !

So this even goes back to VegasKyle's thread last night in which he asked why are home teams winning at such a great clip . I think its based solely on the leveling off of the teams but they key in this is the development of young pitchers . We have so many teams that have real solid starting rotations and lineups that are below avg . You have TB , Cle , LAA , Toronto , Oak , Arizona , White Sox and the Giants as teams with real good SP and offenses that are struggling. These teams are usually limiting there opponents to 2 or 3 runs a game when at home at least until until the latter innings when the pens get involved. This year we have seen the production of relievers drop dramatically and I find it funny that when people bring up steroids no one talks about the failures of bullpens in 2008. Especially since its widely accepted many relievers were on steroids to increase velocity and bounce back ability. Whether I believe it works or not is another debate but since most believe steroids help hitters hit HRs why the one way street on the topic?

Anyway so if you get real good SP at home chances are you will find a way to win whne your home as you have the minor edges ..last atbat , fan support , most players do better at home then on the road so the home team is playing under better circumstances while the road team technially loses a little skill or perfromance just by being on the road...

Back to OAK they lack POWER and dont hit many HRs so they will need to work pitchers . Most have not seen Willis as he last faced OAK in 2003 . In his relief appearance he walked Mauer , got Morneau to fly out , IBB Cuddyer , got Kubel to fly out and Young to ground out , then he faced Lamb who hit a TRIPLE and was pulled. So LHB went 1-3 with 1BB . The start he left to injury walked Quentin and Cabrera to leadoff the game , threw a wild pitch to put them at 2nd and 3rd and IF I recall this correctly had fallen behind Thome 3-1 when he was lifted. To which Aquilino Lopez came into save the day . Lopez through mid-May had just 1 terrible outing but was lights out otherwise...25.1 Inn 23H 5runs 1bb 19Ks and his terrible outing was 0.1 inn 6h 4runs . So that means 1 run in 25 innings otherwise. Last 5 outings for him 7 Inn 10hits 6runs and 5 earned . He has allowed a run in 4 of the 5 and the appearance he didnt possibly pitching with a 19-3 lead had something to do with it . He has allowed 6bbs and 4ks but 1 bb and 4K came in that good 2.2inn vs Minny so 5 bbs to 0Ks otherwise. He is the 1st option probably out of the pen in middle or long relief and he is slumping as well. In his 1st start he was pretty solid the 1st time around the order allowing just 2 walks and no hits through 3 innings. In the 4th he walked two and got a groundball DP to end that , in the 5th he walked another batter again followed by a DP . In the 6th walked Swisher and Cabrera to start the iinning and Thome doubled.

So crazy splits for him with 11 BBs to 0 Ks. You cant be throwing that good to have such a gap in BBs to Ks . Clearly command is an issue and a tight zone ump will probably hurt him and possibly he could be aided by a wide zoned ump depending on how much he misses by.

Seems LHB are 2-6 against him so far .

The TWIST -

Willis, who has pitched only once in relief since coming off the disabled list May 21, will start against the A’s but will be replaced no matter what after four or five innings by fellow Tigers starter Armando Galarraga.
Leyland understands it’s a radical idea, especially after Galarraga went an impressive 8 1-3 innings in his last start against the Angels. But Leyland also understands what Willis could bring to the Tigers’ staff and feels he owes the left-hander an opportunity to earn himself a spot back in the rotation.

“This is one way to try and get him going. In fairness to the young man, in fairness to the team, we need him,” Leyland said. “Right now that’s the only way I can think (of) to do something. He’s been sitting down there idle.”


<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=colhead><TD width="15.2%">Right / Left</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">AB</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">R</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">H</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">2B</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">3B</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">HR</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">RBI</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">BB</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">HBP</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">SO</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">SB</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">CS</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">AVG</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">OBP</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">SLG</TD><TD align=right width="5.3%">OPS</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>vs. Left</TD><TD>385</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>24</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>125</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>.197</TD><TD>.250</TD><TD>.265</TD><TD>.515</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left width=115>vs. Right</TD><TD>2168</TD><TD>316</TD><TD>612</TD><TD>122</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>57</TD><TD>238</TD><TD>201</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>351</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>.282</TD><TD>.346</TD><TD>.432</TD><TD>.779</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Even when he struggled past 3 season one thing he did well is get LHB out . So its interesting that even in limited work LH are 2-6 vs him with 2 XBH and 1 bb 0ks. He allowed just 16 XBH in 3 seasons and struck out nearly 1 in 3 LHBs.

So really hard to know what to expect from DTrain. There is something to being effectively wild . Sometimes you almost break a hitters concentration by not being able to throw strikes and as long as you dont serve it up down the middle you might get some swings that are a second behind especially with Willis mechanics.....

I would expect Galarraga to struggle here though. He was in a groove for the most part as SP now he gets his roled flipped . To which his relief experience could be limited and make him feel like a fish out of water..One thing is certain DET's pen has issues and OAKs for as good as it was losing Devine, Brown and Casilla's clearly hurts them bigtime(lose 60 inn 42hits 10 earned runs!). Though Calero has returned and Gaudin goes to the pen lessening the blow.

Interesting game . Curious to see if Eveland bounce's back like I said long rest was a huge issue. Even he agrees , I know my pitchers.....

Eveland was hit by balls on two infield singles -- the first on the left wrist and right biceps then the second on his right Achilles' tendon. "Honestly I felt a little rusty," he said. "I had seven days' rest. I didn't feel bad, I didn't feel great. It was just another day. I felt confident going into my start after the last one. I just went out there and they swung the bats. Everything found a hole."

He is back on 5 days rest ...

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3.10</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>49.1</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.209</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>8.10</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>10.0</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.405</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

(longer then 5 days rest was @ Atlanta and vs Toronto)

At home on 5 days rest basically take away his 1st start and last start at home. Which leaves us with 3 starts 21.2 innings 9 hits 2 runs(earned) 9bbs 12 K's. The key though is can he gt back in sync and find that rthymn he had all year basically going every 5th day , tricky question IMO? In facing DET he also faces a lineup more suited to face LHP.

All this work and I have no idea what to think about this game other then lean over ..maybe lean Oakland ...but nothing concrete...:36_11_6:

:cheers::tiphat:







 
JumpOnBoard said:
21-5 at home would be a disuasion as well.
Click to expand...

Sort of the logic one would expect with Boston being 21-5 at home and Tampa 9-42 L51 @ Fenway would be to play Boston almost blindly . So the fact the reverse is going on and ignoring these stats definetly makes me scared to play TB ML possibly if I did get involved might go 1st 5 ML or TB +1.5 RL but really this falls unders the context of Boston probably finds a way to steal game tonight just like Oakland did yesterday ....but just thinking out loud about scenarios....GL :cheers:
 
DJ Tanner said:
What are you going with today Sportsnut?

Think im doin Phils Under, Clev Under, Tb under, and Milwaukee
Click to expand...


Not really sure sort of doing 10 things at once so cant seemed to get focused enough to make decisions.

Played SFG +120 , SD +120 (think I got +120 but not to lazy to check)and 1st inn Score YES @ SD -105 so far ..

Looking at the UND 9.5 @ ATL but waiting for later when the vig should run the other way and while it might be mircale possibly see 10 . Also strong lean towards either FLA ML or +1.5 RL .

Not really sure of much else ...

Interested in Cincy to some degree but hate fading Eaton pitching well( in Eaton terms) and Harang being a mystery here in the sense his velocity was down last start alot does he regain here or take a weeek or two....

Interested in the Over 9 Pitt . Houston struggling badly now on offense scoring 1 or 2 runs last 5 games losing all . Wandy just back from the DL working his way into shape . Doesnt have a great track record away to begin with but the key is really getting back into form after the DL start regardless if he was home or away. Dumtrait walks alot of guys and one swing fom Houston sluggers could put a couple up quickly...thinking Pitt but cautiously as well. Not sure if its good or bad that Pitt is 8-0-3 OVER last 11 games...being cautious on the total as well strong drop from 9.5 ....

1st 5 Under @ NYY possibly but Toronto opened fav and that seems to be the bias yet the line flipped immediately ....hard to believe that NYY is worth 50 cents less going from Wang to Joba ....

Possible under @ Boston ...

While I lean Texas here the fact they pissed away 2 games inarow has me concened...

Think Twinkies are to expensive but hardto say with 2 young SP involved . Want to catch up Liz 's stuff in the minors in 2008.....

Prefer Seattle looking at hoe well Bedard has done at home couple with LAA on a huge streak of 4 runs or less for 2 to 3 weeks now....Saunders is real solid but sos-so vs Seattle and alreadythird time they see him in 08.....

Probaly go Oak and over but just leaning.....

So as you can see not much concrete right now. Do my best to post what I finalize....:shake:GL

Not a bad idea with the Cle under after two crazy games . Need to refresh myself with Mastny though....just cant trust MILW . They pulled one out for me yesterday but the pen is to shaky and Unit has been lights out last 3 ...JoJo Reyes shut them down last week. The good for Milw is that ona cant win vs RHSP on the road ..Torn on the Philly total because as I said yesterday 10/10.5 totals for Reds on the road have been flying over since 2006 like 21-7 now after yesterday....still nice weather in NY so Philly should be solid as well...thought 10.5 was a smidge high yesterday and 10 feels a smidge high here but the capability is there for these lineups , what hurt the over was Reds making 5-4 in the top of the 6th because it may the next RUN crucial and both teams had to basically shut eachother down the rest of the way.....:cheers:













 
what I like so much about the Phils under is that even though Eaton is bad he still stays under

Eaton
-O/u is 1-9 in eatons last 10 starts
-at home he has given up 1,4,2,4,3 this year
- The under is 5-0 in his last 5

Harang
- Under is 11-4-1 in harangs last 16 starts
- Last 3 games have been under the total

Guccione
- 4-8 o/u record this year

Both Teams
-These guys played each other April 5th
_-Reds won 4-3 and the total was set at 10

Im from Philly/right near the ball park and its beautiful down here..little windy at times but beautiful weather
 
Pop ups were carrying outta there in the heat last as easily as I've seen..

Ya'll expecting storms later in Philly?

Going through here now.
 
checked the local weather and it doesnt look rain to after midnight

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=vbgB vAlign=center align=left height=30>Hourly Forecast more details
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="16%"><!-- id="hourTimeFrame0" --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=vbgA style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ffffff 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #ffffff 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ffffff 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ffffff 0px solid" vAlign=center align=middle height=30>6pm </TD></TR><TR><TD class=blueVerdanaText11 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e3e1c7 1px solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: #e3e1c7 0px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #e3e1c7 0px solid; PADDING-TOP: 5px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e3e1c7 0px solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f7f6e7" vAlign=top align=middle><TABLE style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="80%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>
28.gif

81°F</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Feels Like
80°F </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD vAlign=top width="16%"><!-- id="hourTimeFrame1" --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=vbgA style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ffffff 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #ffffff 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ffffff 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ffffff 0px solid" vAlign=center align=middle height=30>9pm </TD></TR><TR><TD class=blueVerdanaText11 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e3e1c7 1px solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: #e3e1c7 0px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #e3e1c7 0px solid; PADDING-TOP: 5px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e3e1c7 0px solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f7f6e7" vAlign=top align=middle><TABLE style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="80%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>
27.gif

73°F</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Feels Like
73°F </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD vAlign=top width="16%"><!-- id="hourTimeFrame2" --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=vbgA style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ffffff 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #ffffff 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ffffff 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ffffff 0px solid" vAlign=center align=middle height=30>12am </TD></TR><TR><TD class=blueVerdanaText11 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e3e1c7 1px solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BORDER-TOP: #e3e1c7 0px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #e3e1c7 0px solid; PADDING-TOP: 5px; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e3e1c7 0px solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f7f6e7" vAlign=top align=middle><TABLE style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e3e1c7 1px solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="80%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>
47.gif

66°F</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Feels Like
66°F </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
DJ Tanner said:
what I like so much about the Phils under is that even though Eaton is bad he still stays under

Eaton
-O/u is 1-9 in eatons last 10 starts
-at home he has given up 1,4,2,4,3 this year
- The under is 5-0 in his last 5

Harang
- Under is 11-4-1 in harangs last 16 starts
- Last 3 games have been under the total

Guccione
- 4-8 o/u record this year

Both Teams
-These guys played each other April 5th
_-Reds won 4-3 and the total was set at 10

Im from Philly/right near the ball park and its beautiful down here..little windy at times but beautiful weather
Click to expand...

All trends pointed to the over last night, and the game went under somehow. All trends point to the under tonight, so I will hope (for the purpose of my pick in Alex's contest) the game goes over somehow.
 
Blue_Chip said:
All trends pointed to the over last night, and the game went under somehow. All trends point to the under tonight, so I will hope (for the purpose of my pick in Alex's contest) the game goes over somehow.
Click to expand...
LOL..I watched every out last night and I'm still amazed it went under...

w/ the Reds road bullpen numbers, the chances of them going 4+ were like 1/20 and they pulled it off...

5 homeruns and goes under as well..strangeness..
 
i would have won a shitload of money if that game went over... tonight i have Sfg, pitt, & tampa bay. gl
 
Harang

Day...1.96 era.....46.0 inn....3 hr......208 avg

Night.. 6.14 era....36.2 inn....8 hr.....338 avg
 
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