Tuesday Totals Discussion

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Here we go. Openers are from when I first saw them - they aren't necessarily the openers:


Open - Friday 11:30 AM EST - Current (Sat - 10:50 AM)

Kent St. - Bowling Green: 52.5- 53.5 -53
Central Michigan - Indiana: 55- 56.5 -60.5
Air Force - Army: 41.5- 40 -39
Louisville - Syracuse: 57- 53.5 -52
Miami FL - Virginia: 42- 42 -42
West Virginia - Connecticut: 43- 44.5 -44.5
Iowa - Illinois: 50- 50.5 -50.5
Northwestern - Minnesota: 44- 44.5 -46 (Briefly went down to 43)
Duke - Wake Forest: 37- 42 -41.5
Iowa St. - Oklahoma St.: 67- 63 -61.5
Missouri - Baylor: 68- 68.5 -66
Auburn - Mississippi: 38.5- 41.5 -41.5
San Diego St. - Wyoming: 47- 45.5 -47 (I think this ticked up to 48 before falling)
Eastern Michigan - Western Michigan: 56- 59 -60
Tulsa - Arkansas: 74- 76.5 -75.5(Shot up to 79 before falling back to earth)
Colorado - Texas A&M: 56- 52 -51
Pittsburgh - Notre Dame: 50- 49.5 -48.5
Fresno St. - La. Tech: 51- 54 -57
Hawaii - Utah St.: 56.5- 50 -49 (fell 6 points in a minute or two)
Tennessee - South Carolina: 36.5- 37.5 -37.5
Florida - Georgia: 56.5- 56.5 -55.5
Washington - USC: 56- 56 -56
Nebraska - Oklahoma: 74.5- 71 -71
Oregon - California: 67.5- 60.5 -57.5
Temple - Navy: 41.5- 45 -44.5
Kansas St. - Kansas: 71- 72 -68.5 (I think this went as high as 74.5)
Texas - Texas Tech: 76.5- 74 -72
Michigan - Purdue: 44- 44 -45.5
Wisconsin - Michigan St.: 47.5- 48 -47.5
Clemson - Boston College: 41.5- 41 -41 (dipped to 40, back to 41.5, and back to 41)
San Jose St. - Idaho: 52- 49 -46
BYU - Colorado St.: 54.5- 55.5 -55.5
Wash St. - Stanford: 57- 53.5 -51.5
Boise St. - New Mexico St.: 54- 55 -56
Kentucky - Mississippi St.: 38.5- 38 -36.5
Florida St. - Georgia Tech: 41- 42 -42
Tulane - LSU: 55.5- 55 -53.5
TCU - UNLV: 53.5- 53 -52
UAB - So. Miss: 57- 61 -63.5
Rice - UTEP: 81.5- 77 -75.5
Utah - New Mexico: 50- 45.5 -44 (fell to 45 a minute or two after the open)
Arizona St. - Oregon St.: 53.5- 53.5 -51

North Texas - W. Kentucky: 58- 57.5 -55
Arkansas St. - Alabama: 44.5- 46 -45.5
Florida Int. - La. Lafayette: 60.5- 59 -57 (shot to 62 right after the open, now back to its current number)
Troy - UL Monroe: 58- 56.5 -55.5

East Carolina - Central Fla.: 54- 50.5 -47 (fell very quickly after the open)



Ok, lets find some winners. :cheers:
 
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Northwestern - Minnesota: 53 (It will probably be lower than this - Sutton out, CJ "the interception" Bacher is questionable)


must have had the same over i had last week .. hehe
 
Colorado - Texas A&M: 50 (Tough time with this one as Colorado's offense has fallen off of the face of the earth, but A&M's D is still awful - any opinions here?)

The fall was cushioned by landing on top of the TAMU defense which was already down there.

I bet tamu but expect colorado to score ... think 50 is a tad on the low side.
 
I mentioned I hate totals but Tenny-Carolina and Vandy-Duke I see having a hard time going over.

I was on mostly Unders beginning of season like Miami-TAMU, Auburn-LSU, Miami-FSU, VT-BC. Seems like most of the 40 lined games go over.

--In hindsight these teams all have shown they are not as great defensivley or as bad offensively as might have thought. I'm thinking totals might be an endeavor to watch after the middle of the season when more data is collected. Because Vandy, Wake, Tenny, these are types of teams where you can say with more certainty the outcome is going to be pretty predictable. Miami-TAMU, how could I say with predictability what type of game that was going to be?? I think if we know what we know know I wouldn't touch it.

I'm looking for some consistent teams who have shown no offense and a great defense and look at some unders.

Might only see something once a blue moon. I think you have to be very strict. Example, UConn-Cinci last week would of been close but too much inconsitency of high scoring from UConn and from Cincinnati, they have moved it past games.

Wake----5 games played under 42 points. Ole Miss 58 and Baylor 54.
Duke----5 games played under 44 points. Navy 72 and Miami 80.

Now I thought Miami-Duke Under was attractive and of course it goes over. But I think if you look at Miami they are very very overrated for Unders and have shown they can get in some wild crazy azz games. Wake, UCF, and UF were the only games Under 40.

I by no means consider Wake-Duke a sure thing. Actually outside of Vandy and Virginia Duke has given up alot of points. Wake offense sucks but could I see Skinner breaking out this game, maybe. I see Duke having a lot of trouble scoring here actually I would be confident in Wake side. I think Wake is similar to Vandy and that was a 10-7 game with Devils.

I think the king of Unders right now folks is TENNESSEE. ALL 8 GAMES PLAYED HAVE BEEN UNDER 41 POINTS. The UCLA overtime game was the one that hit 41. Perfect formula, great defense, shitty offense and that has been consistent.

Now Carolina has been very consistent in the type of scores we see from them......24-7 vs. Vandy, 14-7 Georgia, 23-13 Wofford, 26-13 UAB, 31-24 Ole Miss, 24-17 Kentucky, 24-17 LSU.

Now I know Vandy, Kentucky, Ole Miss, there was some special teams, defensive touchdowns as well.

If I could pick one game I actually like for totals it would be the Tenny-Carolina Under.
 
West Virginia-UConn at 44 I think is short.

That has potential for alot of scoring.
 
Glad to see that you like the Bull/Bearclit matchup under; thinking the same thing, DMoney.

Pike's playing, yes?
 
horses said:
Glad to see that you like the Bull/Bearclit matchup under; thinking the same thing, DMoney.

Pike's playing, yes?
Click to expand...

Pike is a game-time decision, which favors the under even more IMO.

If Anderson starts, they will run a lot more than usual I think.


Bump as rest of projections are up.
 
vegaskyle said:
Northwestern - Minnesota: 53 (It will probably be lower than this - Sutton out, CJ "the interception" Bacher is questionable)


must have had the same over i had last week .. hehe
Click to expand...

This is definitely on my radar for an over again this week. Conteh is a respectable back-up for Sutton, and Kafka can't be much worse than Bacher.
 
vegaskyle said:
Colorado - Texas A&M: 50 (Tough time with this one as Colorado's offense has fallen off of the face of the earth, but A&M's D is still awful - any opinions here?)

The fall was cushioned by landing on top of the TAMU defense which was already down there.

I bet tamu but expect colorado to score ... think 50 is a tad on the low side.
Click to expand...

I should have bet TAMU at the open - 3.5 now. :hang:
How much higher would you put this? I kind of thought it should be lower than the 55.5/56 that was posted for A&M/ISU last week.
 
O-State said:
I mentioned I hate totals but Tenny-Carolina and Vandy-Duke I see having a hard time going over.

I was on mostly Unders beginning of season like Miami-TAMU, Auburn-LSU, Miami-FSU, VT-BC. Seems like most of the 40 lined games go over.

--In hindsight these teams all have shown they are not as great defensivley or as bad offensively as might have thought. I'm thinking totals might be an endeavor to watch after the middle of the season when more data is collected. Because Vandy, Wake, Tenny, these are types of teams where you can say with more certainty the outcome is going to be pretty predictable. Miami-TAMU, how could I say with predictability what type of game that was going to be?? I think if we know what we know know I wouldn't touch it.

I'm looking for some consistent teams who have shown no offense and a great defense and look at some unders.

Might only see something once a blue moon. I think you have to be very strict. Example, UConn-Cinci last week would of been close but too much inconsitency of high scoring from UConn and from Cincinnati, they have moved it past games.

Wake----5 games played under 42 points. Ole Miss 58 and Baylor 54.
Duke----5 games played under 44 points. Navy 72 and Miami 80.

Now I thought Miami-Duke Under was attractive and of course it goes over. But I think if you look at Miami they are very very overrated for Unders and have shown they can get in some wild crazy azz games. Wake, UCF, and UF were the only games Under 40.

I by no means consider Wake-Duke a sure thing. Actually outside of Vandy and Virginia Duke has given up alot of points. Wake offense sucks but could I see Skinner breaking out this game, maybe. I see Duke having a lot of trouble scoring here actually I would be confident in Wake side. I think Wake is similar to Vandy and that was a 10-7 game with Devils.

I think the king of Unders right now folks is TENNESSEE. ALL 8 GAMES PLAYED HAVE BEEN UNDER 41 POINTS. The UCLA overtime game was the one that hit 41. Perfect formula, great defense, shitty offense and that has been consistent.

Now Carolina has been very consistent in the type of scores we see from them......24-7 vs. Vandy, 14-7 Georgia, 23-13 Wofford, 26-13 UAB, 31-24 Ole Miss, 24-17 Kentucky, 24-17 LSU.

Now I know Vandy, Kentucky, Ole Miss, there was some special teams, defensive touchdowns as well.

If I could pick one game I actually like for totals it would be the Tenny-Carolina Under.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the write-up O.

I know you don't like totals, but I think they can be just as profitable as sides (but maybe even more frustrating) if the right approach is taken.

This isn't a rule for me, but I'll often stay away from unders that are posted in the high 30s/low 40s, because these games can often go over my mistake (this only applies to CFB). For example, I was probably lucky to hit the over 40.5 in SJSU/Boise: blocked punt at the SJSU 10, INT return for SJSU, flukish 60 yard run on 3rd and 1. There were some plays that helped the under as well, but there is half the total right there.

It's all about the openers with me when it comes to totals - I just trust my numbers and bet (in most cases, anyway). They aren't as profitable at this point in the season though. Early in CFB though, you can 7-10 point moves and 15-25 point moves in extreme cases in CBB.

I'm try to avoid the transitive property when it comes to these as well (since A/B scored 55 points, surely A/C will combine for more than that). Its as much about personnel, match-ups, and situations as sides in my opinion.
 
A lot of similar numbers this week. i have some games lined a tad higher but that is probably just me be a donkey.

i love this thread every week
 
think i like the kent over again. your number looks good, but i think either team will have a hard time keeping the other one under 30
 
I like both "unders" tonight, especially the Houston/Marshall game with cold, wind, and possible rain.
 
vegaskyle said:
A lot of similar numbers this week. i have some games lined a tad higher but that is probably just me be a donkey.

i love this thread every week
Click to expand...

Thanks VK.

As far as your higher games, are they Tulsa, TT/Texas, etc? I wouldn't blame anyone for putting them higher - I'm just reluctant to put any total higher than 75 or so.
 
broadwayjoe said:
think i like the kent over again. your number looks good, but i think either team will have a hard time keeping the other one under 30
Click to expand...

It does seem like a good match-up for an over. Hopefully they don't shade it too much after their game last week.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Thanks VK.

As far as your higher games, are they Tulsa, TT/Texas, etc? I wouldn't blame anyone for putting them higher - I'm just reluctant to put any total higher than 75 or so.
Click to expand...


iowa - illinois i have considerably higher.
colorado-tamu i have considerably higher
temple-navy is probably the one we differ on the most. i have it much higher.
 
vegaskyle said:
iowa - illinois i have considerably higher.
colorado-tamu i have considerably higher
temple-navy is probably the one we differ on the most. i have it much higher.
Click to expand...

Ok, we already talked about TAMU.

Well, they opened Wisky/Illinois at 57 this week, so I'm sure this won't be as low as 48.

We'll see about Temple/Navy. Interesting one.
 
buff/ohio under just got pounded or something. dropped from 49 to 47 1/2 in less than 2 mins. Seems like the under on marsh/houston is starting to drop now also.
 
Hey dmoney. I didn't know anyone else ran these. I just now saw it because I haven't been on this site much lately. Numbers due up any time, probably as I'm trying to post this. Here's what I've got. Dmoney, the Matador:

Kent St. - Bowling Green: 52.5/55
Central Michigan - Indiana: 58/59
Air Force - Army: 43.5/45
Louisville - Syracuse: 51/48
Miami FL - Virginia: 45/44
West Virginia - Connecticut: 44/46
Iowa - Illinois: 48/52
Northwestern - Minnesota: 53/45
Duke - Wake Forest: 41/39
Iowa St. - Oklahoma St.: 64/67
Missouri - Baylor: 67/73
Auburn - Mississippi: 45.5/42
San Diego St. - Wyoming: 43/48
Eastern Michigan - Western Michigan: 56.5/59
Tulsa - Arkansas: 69/75
Colorado - Texas A&M: 50/58
Pittsburgh - Notre Dame: 48/56
Fresno St. - La. Tech: 49.5/47
Hawaii - Utah St.: 52/46 -- I don't know about Alexander, but he sure lokked good, didn't he?
Tennessee - South Carolina: 39/41
Florida - Georgia: 54/53
Washington - USC: 56/61
Nebraska - Oklahoma: 70/69
Oregon - California: 62.5/60 -- but it might rain.
Temple - Navy: 41.5/42
Kansas St. - Kansas: 65.5/64
Texas - Texas Tech: 74/74
Michigan - Purdue: 47.5/47
Wisconsin - Michigan St.: 45.5/55 - Check series history. Plus neither of these teams defends worth a damn.
Clemson - Boston College: 44.5/50
San Jose St. - Idaho: 53/49
BYU - Colorado St.: 60.5/58
Wash St. - Stanford: 50.5/NL -- I have no clue. Might rain though.
Boise St. - New Mexico St.: 55/50
Kentucky - Mississippi St.: 37/38
Florida St. - Georgia Tech: 43.5/43
Tulane - LSU: 52/47
TCU - UNLV: 48.5/50
UAB - So. Miss: 58/62
Rice - UTEP: 73/75
Utah - New Mexico: 53/43
Arizona St. - Oregon St.59

North Texas - W. Kentucky: 52.5/56
Arkansas St. - Alabama: 48/46
Florida Int. - La. Lafayette: 55/52 -- Desormeaux will play.
Troy - UL Monroe: 57.5/54

East Carolina - Central Fla.: 47.5/50
 
Some big moves already - my computer was slow so couldn't get everything I wanted.

I bet:

Northwestern/Minnesota Over 44 (2.2u to win 2)
FIU/UL-Lafayette Under 62 (2.2u to win 2)
Syracuse/Louisville Under 56 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Oregon/Cal Under 66.5 (1.32u to win 1.2)
Clemson/BC Over 41.5 (1.1u to win 1)

Edit: Cal was actually 1.2 u.
 
The line that is out on the Utah/NM really told the story on where this O/U was going to come out/head. Only favoring Utah by 7 you know Vegas is expecting a dogfight 24-17 type of game. The higher the total the higher the spread for Utah. Utah/over or NM/under would probably be pretty good correlated parlays as the Lobos are unlikely to score big on the Utes. Same could probably be said for the TCU/UNLV game. I was really hoping for something in the 40's and hit the over rather than play UNLV but need to reevaluate now.
 
Oh my god Tenny-Carolina is lined 37.5. That's ultra low probably not playable.

Dmoney you were right on wth with WVU-UConn number. I lean over simply because both teams will have great success running look at the Auburn score last week.

I lean Louisville Under
 
hoopsstar22 said:
Thanks for the work on adding those.
Click to expand...

Sure hoops. Saturday's now added.

It now lists the opener, followed by Friday's number (as of 11:30 AM ET), followed by today's number (as of 10:50 AM ET).

Just did it to look at the late movers. Some are weather related, but interesting nevertheless.
 
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