Tuesday Leans...Help me narrow them down fellas

D-Woww

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
1-0 on my only play yesterday, Nats under



Leans for Tuesday:

LAD Team Total Over: I don't trust Oritz to not get blown out by the best offense in the national league. He had a good first start, but that was against shitty hitters. Truth is, Ortiz is old and over the hll. Think the Dodgers light him up tonight.

Cardinals/Mets over 9: Welleymeyer is a decent pitcher, but hes good to give up 3/4 to the Mets Lineup. I think Perez has one of his bad outings, because he wont get himself out of trouble with the powerful right handed bats of the Cardinals


Peavy/Cain under 7....either one could toss a shutout


Rangers +195....good value, Roy is due for a bad game and i think the Rangers bats could hit anyone in the majors right now

O's -107....this kid bergesen is the real deal...Conreras is old and the Sox have had hitting issues

Twins +150....letdown spot for teh Sox, any time the knuckler isnt working, wakefield could get smacked



thoughts....
 
Assuming Roy is due for a bad start is a good way to go broke IMO...not saying it won't happen but I'd need more than that.
 
GrumpOnBoard said:
Assuming Roy is due for a bad start is a good way to go broke IMO...not saying it won't happen but I'd need more than that.
Click to expand...
Greinke shut them down on saturday 2-0 rangers did bounce back on sunday...jays are a different team when roy starts..agree with grump that you need more than he's due for a bad start
 
Grump...its not just, oh hes due so im going to fade him. He is going up against the Rangers lineup who, as i said, i think can hit anybody. Roy could pitch 5 no hit innings and the Rangers could catch fire and get 4 or 5 in a row. I also like McCarthy, and think that the Blue Jays hitting is going to be decent, but not amazing like it has been. This line implies that if the two teams were to play with these pitchers 100 times, the Jays would win 66. Because I think the number would be more like 58, i think there is value in the Rangers. Maybe put a half unit on it, not a full unit plya
 
YoungOne said:
Grump...its not just, oh hes due so im going to fade him. He is going up against the Rangers lineup who, as i said, i think can hit anybody. Roy could pitch 5 no hit innings and the Rangers could catch fire and get 4 or 5 in a row. I also like McCarthy, and think that the Blue Jays hitting is going to be decent, but not amazing like it has been. This line implies that if the two teams were to play with these pitchers 100 times, the Jays would win 66. Because I think the number would be more like 58, i think there is value in the Rangers. Maybe put a half unit on it, not a full unit plya
Click to expand...
just some food for thought when rangers faced good pitching this year

Cliff Lee (we all knew he would not far as well as he did last year) 9 Runs
Gallarga - 2 runs
Verlander - 3 runs
Meche - 3 Runs
Greinke - 2 Runs

In all other games, the quality of pitchers hasn't been all that great..goodluck tonight with whatever you play :shake:
 
-Perez pitches really well against good teams, would lay off that over.
-Rangers road bats are weak, would lay off their side.
-Sox at home are a very difficult fade, would lay off the Twinks
-Like the SD/SF under but it's a scary-low number
-no opinion on the O's
 
great advice warner....i did this yesterday, had one big lean and a few minor leans. ony played the big one and it hit. may do the same today with dodgers TT over
 
YoungOne - Not sure about the O's. They're really not playing well after a decent start. Their bullpen is already pretty tired after the Rangers and Sox series and they might be w/o Adam Jones. Plus the White Sox are playing well, taking 2 of 3 from the Rays. Not sure I can trust the O's at this point.

If you think the Rangers bats get to Halladay and it's possible. Halladay doesn't have great numbers vs Texas, maybe consider the Over there. Halladay's last 11 starts are 10-1 to the Over and the Jays bats certainly have the potential to get to McCarthy as well. 8 doesn't seem like a lot to me.

The SD/SF Under looks solid. With these games, one of the pitchers throwing a gem, going 8 or 9 solid innings is usually all it takes. Even if one guy struggles and we look at a 5-1 game, it's still under the number.

Nice price on the Twins coming off a sweep of the Angels, but the Sox offense really might have turned the corner this weekend against the Orioles.

Dodgers TT Over looks good as their offense is on an absolute tear and Russ Ortiz certainly doesn't scare anyone does he?
 
Youngone,i like some of you plays but calling the Dodgers the best offense in the National League is crazy talk..i don't care what stats they have this early in the season they are nowhere near the best offense in the National league...good luck tonight
 
bro i live in philly and am a die hard phillies fan...let me tell u sure they have rollins howard utley ibanez but the thing with them is once they get thru them there are 3 sure outs at teh bottom of the order. mets were my thought as a possible answer but i still think dodgers have the mets beat, but the mets are close
 
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