Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 4 Tue 2023

03:10 PM
901Arizona DiamondbacksZ. Gallen -R+127O 7
-115
902San Diego PadresY. Darvish -R+1 Markets-137U 7
-105
05:40 PM
903Chicago CubsH. Wesneski -R-130O 9
-117
904Cincinnati RedsL. Cessa -R+1 Markets+120U 9
-103
05:40 PM
921Minnesota TwinsK. Maeda -R+130O 7
-110
922Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R+1 Markets-141U 7
-110
06:05 PM
923Philadelphia PhilliesM. Strahm -L+130O 8½
-120
924New York YankeesD. German -R+1 Markets-141U 8½
+100
06:05 PM
925Tampa Bay RaysJ. Fleming -L-157O 8½
-120
926Washington NationalsC. Kuhl -R+1 Markets+145U 8½
+100
06:10 PM
927Pittsburgh PiratesR. Contreras -R+134O 9
-115
928Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R+1 Markets-145U 9
-105
06:40 PM
905New York MetsM. Scherzer -R-157O 8
-103
906Milwaukee BrewersW. Miley -L+1 Markets+145U 8
-117
06:40 PM
911Toronto Blue JaysY. Kikuchi -L-145O 9½
-110
912Kansas City RoyalsK. Bubic -L+1 Markets+134U 9½
-110
06:45 PM
907Atlanta BravesD. Dodd -L+113O 9
-110
908St. Louis CardinalsS. Matz -L+1 Markets-123U 9
-110
07:05 PM
913Baltimore OriolesT. Wells -R+115O 8½
-110
914Texas RangersA. Heaney -L+1 Markets-125U 8½
-110
07:10 PM
915Detroit TigersM. Manning -R+237O 7½
-110
916Houston AstrosF. Valdez -L+1 Markets-265U 7½
-110
08:40 PM
917Cleveland GuardiansS. Bieber -R-195O 7
-107
918Oakland AthleticsJ. Sears -L+1 Markets+179U 7
-113
08:40 PM
919Los Angeles AngelsJ. Suarez -L+140O 7
-120
920Seattle MarinersL. Castillo -R+1 Markets-152U 7
+100
09:10 PM
909Colorado RockiesG. Marquez -R+220O 7½
-105
910Los Angeles DodgersJ. Urias -L+1 Markets-245U 7½
-115
 
Damn, cards/Braves total getting beat up, another unseasonably warm day, strong wind blowing out, probably the best 2 nl offenses and 2 lefty pitchers which these teams been known to tee off on lefties.
 
Matz actually has good career numbers vs Braves but this a lot different team than last time he faced them way back in ‘20 and before. Matz did have a really good spring and I think he still a pretty decent pitcher if he actually healthy. Don’t know much of anything bout kid starting for Braves? 1st big league start, those are tough as they can go a number of ways from being too excited and losing command which supposed to be his best feature, or they can embrace it and pitch lights out. I dunno, im way more hesitant to play this over than I was yesterday. Cards have been fantastic vs lhp but they been known to struggle vs pitchers they havnt seen before, not this team so much but in the past it been a issue for them. I don’t think matz is gonna get blown up, not like I thought woodford would. I’ll prob pass on this one. I might even actually lean under but doubt I play that, just be careful bout jumping on the over bandwagon.
 
2daBank said:
Damn, cards/Braves total getting beat up, another unseasonably warm day, strong wind blowing out, probably the best 2 nl offenses and 2 lefty pitchers which these teams been known to tee off on lefties.
Click to expand...
It's another Berryhorse pick that came in at 9:25am ET. Every single one of his picks will create massive movement 30 seconds after posting. It's happened on all of his picks to start the year.

docs.google.com

Berryhorse Telegram Tracking

docs.google.com docs.google.com
 
Gallen/Yu being heavily taxed at u7.5, definitely a 1st 5 type game if you don't like runs

Side note, Pads did something never done before last night, back to back HRs from the 8 and 9 hole to walkoff the game. I don't even know who was pitching there but that's got to be as low as it can get on April 3rd.
 
KJ said:
Gallen/Yu being heavily taxed at u7.5, definitely a 1st 5 type game if you don't like runs

Side note, Pads did something never done before last night, back to back HRs from the 8 and 9 hole to walkoff the game. I don't even know who was pitching there but that's got to be as low as it can get on April 3rd.
Click to expand...
Giants had 4 home runs off Kopech in the 5th inning yesterday.
 
peelpub94 said:
It's another Berryhorse pick that came in at 9:25am ET. Every single one of his picks will create massive movement 30 seconds after posting. It's happened on all of his picks to start the year.

docs.google.com

Berryhorse Telegram Tracking

docs.google.com docs.google.com
Click to expand...

I still dunno who the fuck that is? I don’t really give a shit but it kinda annoying if I don’t get my play in 1st and we on same side, lol. Personally I think there was way more value in yesterdays number. I understand the case for today and it is even warmer/more humid and helping wind so ball should carry, we got a front coming in overnight that gonna cool things back down so guess this the last best chance for a over at Busch for a minute since park plays pretty big when it chilly.

My problem is I dunno how this Dodd kid gonna pitch? Yes facing cards a tough task for your 1st start cause they do love hitting lhp, that said I remember early last season they went to cincy to face a young lefty I’d never heard of who had struggled in his 1st couple starts so naturally I was all over cards team total, that kid turned out to be Lodolo and it was his coming out party as he mowed cards down for 5-6 innings, they couldn’t touch him. From what I’ve read Dodd doesn’t profile with nearly the power stuff Lodolo has but he apparently has great command, softer tossers w command have been known to give cards problems, guys they don’t have film on or havnt seen have been known to give cards problems. I know he a righty but that soft tosser Hendricks pitching for cubs have dominated cards over the years with off speed stuff and command. The fact this kids best attribute appears to be command makes his 1st start really hard to cap, will he be able to control the nerves to keep his command? I wouldn’t think he be overthrowing pitches since that not his game. He could very easily go 5-6 innings and only give up 2-3 runs.

On the other side I actually expect Matz to be good, this dude still has good stuff from the left side he just can’t stay healthy, he appears healthy right now so I think he will be good here, I give him a way better chance for success than woodford and that total was 2 runs lower!! I actually like atl Ff tt under but I was hoping for better number/price, figured I would get plus money on the under 2.5, the fact the Ff under 2.5 is juiced -145 I think is pretty damn telling!! I’d like to see some steam chasers push it up more but I doubt it happens cause I think there be ppl looking at this more like me and taking the under thanks to the horse guy creating some value on the number imo.
 
peelpub94 said:
Polarizing figure for sure. But yeah, he's back sharing picks on telegram if anyone is interested. Berryhorse
Click to expand...
Never heard of telegram

Thought I went through the entire download on the laptop but still not opening. Anyone moving numbers like that is of interest all the time regardless if you agree or not.
 
Maeda making his 1st start since august ‘21, I like that, usually guys try to come back in a year from TJ and they never really seem to get all way back to previous form till bout 18 months imo. He been fanning a batter per inning in spring but he has had some control issues walking 10 in 13+ innings. He was able to go 4 then 5 innings his last 2, throwing bout 75 pitches in both so he should be primed to go 5+ innings. I think he has the kind of arsenal with all the movement he more than capable of fanning at least 1 per inning vs Miami.

As much I love Alcontera and I think fish pen better than the early struggles, I think maeda and twins pen stack up favorably while twins are swinging hotter bats, both actually have top 6 ops at the moment, I think fish have done some good things to the lineup, especially trading Lopez to twins for Arraez who a hitting machine, one those rare trades I think gonna work out great for both sides. Whole healthy twins lineup is just deeper/more dangerous. This price seems a bit much w way twins starting the season on fire and fish struggling to win games. +120 or more on twins seems like a great value play.
 
KJ said:
Early game after a late game, might see some omissions from the SD lineup today

Gotta think he can k at least 7 even if he only goes through the lineup twice
Click to expand...

I just really don’t like playing them above 5.5, I make exceptions but for most part I feel like I can find 3.5s, 4.5s, 5.5s I feel better about. I dunno I’ll look at some more.
 
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2daBank said:
I just really don’t like playing them above 5.5, I make exceptions but for most part I feel like I can find 3.5s, 4.5s, 5.5s I feel better about. I dunno I’ll look at some more.
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Ah the ol' Kerry Wood rule in effect

Will never forget sitting in a college classroom and the professor just said fuck it and put the Cubs game on when he got his 20 ks, It was incredible, only thing I learned that day was how many chicks love baseball, they could have left class at any time but I think only one did lol
 
2daBank said:
Maeda making his 1st start since august ‘21, I like that, usually guys try to come back in a year from TJ and they never really seem to get all way back to previous form till bout 18 months imo. He been fanning a batter per inning in spring but he has had some control issues walking 10 in 13+ innings. He was able to go 4 then 5 innings his last 2, throwing bout 75 pitches in both so he should be primed to go 5+ innings. I think he has the kind of arsenal with all the movement he more than capable of fanning at least 1 per inning vs Miami.

As much I love Alcontera and I think fish pen better than the early struggles, I think maeda and twins pen stack up favorably while twins are swinging hotter bats, both actually have top 6 ops at the moment, I think fish have done some good things to the lineup, especially trading Lopez to twins for Arraez who a hitting machine, one those rare trades I think gonna work out great for both sides. Whole healthy twins lineup is just deeper/more dangerous. This price seems a bit much w way twins starting the season on fire and fish struggling to win games. +120 or more on twins seems like a great value play.
Click to expand...

I had it on vs left handed pitching and didn’t realize it, neither ops that high overall! Whoops. Lol. Twins top 10 ops, fish down at .690 which makes more sense.
 
KJ said:
Ah the ol' Kerry Wood rule in effect

Will never forget sitting in a college classroom and the professor just said fuck it and put the Cubs game on when he got his 20 ks, It was incredible, only thing I learned that day was how many chicks love baseball, they could have left class at any time but I think only one did lol
Click to expand...

I actually remember and watched that game also, dude was amazing. That was before everyone decided it was ok to strike out also! Shame his career kinda got derailed by injuries I think, sounds right. Lol
 
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2daBank said:
I actually remember and watched that game also, dude was amazing. That was before everyone decided it was ok to strike out also! Shame his career kinda got derailed by injuries I think, sounds right. Lol
Click to expand...
Yep all injuries. My ex actually hung at a dive bar with him and a couple others one year during Spring Training in Tempe. Not far from their Mesa stadium at the time. She actually put me on the phone with him and I reiterated that game w/him. Always injured, kinda in the Pryor mode.

Also that class was Bar and Beverage Management so watching the game wasn't some kind of shock lol
 
The braves rook had like 3 or 4 era in minors doesn't compare to the yanks pitcher who just threw a gem.

am i only one who like wesneska and cessa under 9 ? see it's juiced to over but these guys stat history say under
 
This Wesneski kid for the cubs has some filthy movement on his pitches. When he came up for a cup of coffee last fall he proved his stuff plays at this level. He faced reds twice, in 2 starts he went 11 innings and fanned 14 wit only 6 hits, 2 walks and 1 earned run! I feel like cesse is a boarderline gas can, he did have a few good outings vs cubs at end last year but I do like cubs lineup better now. Maybe Chicago Ff rl +105?
 
EL CAPO said:
The braves rook had like 3 or 4 era in minors doesn't compare to the yanks pitcher who just threw a gem.

am i only one who like wesneska and cessa under 9 ? see it's juiced to over but these guys stat history say under
Click to expand...

I love the Weeneska side of it, I like his k prop and maybe a reds tt under. I don’t trust Cessa as much. Lean cubs Ff and wesneska k prop. Wind blowing in today, under would be only way I play it but again more likely Ff if I do. Cubs pen has had issues and I’m not sold on the early great numbers for refs pen considering who they have faced.
 
KJ said:
Yep all injuries. My ex actually hung at a dive bar with him and a couple others one year during Spring Training in Tempe. Not far from their Mesa stadium at the time. She actually put me on the phone with him and I reiterated that game w/him. Always injured, kinda in the Pryor mode.

Also that class was Bar and Beverage Management so watching the game wasn't some kind of shock lol
Click to expand...

Oh yea, Pryor too, he coulda been so good! that was back when cubs still had the goat curse thing. Lol
 
2daBank said:
Oh yea, Pryor too, he coulda been so good! that was back when cubs still had the goat curse thing. Lol
Click to expand...
I was actually at their ST stadium for the Bartman game. Not like I'm a Cubs fan but thought it would be fun, two projection screens in the outfield, BYOB, dollar hot dogs.

I've never been in a more hostile environment and been to plenty of Cowboys and Raiders games here!
 
KJ said:
I was actually at their ST stadium for the Bartman game. Not like I'm a Cubs fan but thought it would be fun, two projection screens in the outfield, BYOB, dollar hot dogs.

I've never been in a more hostile environment and been to plenty of Cowboys and Raiders games here!
Click to expand...

That is awesome! I thought they were gonna kill that dude! Lol
 
What can we expect out of Darvish? I dunno what he been dealing with? I mean he did pitch a inning in WBC final and outside the amazing at bat by Schwarber he was good, he didn’t pitch at all since then, I assume he has done some throwing behind the scenes but really tough to say what kind of cap they may have on him? I freaking love Yu and normally be all over his 5.5 k’s cause he one the few pitchers we can’t count on going 6+ innings, I dunno if that the case today tho? Seems a bit unlikely. I’ll prob just leave that game alone.
 
Ryno14 said:
Prior would’ve been a top 5 pitcher of all time if he didn’t have the freak injuries. I still get sad about it
Click to expand...

Im sure, he is our Reyes. Shit sucks when guy with so much potential just has one arm injury after another.
 
Ryno14 said:
Prior would’ve been a top 5 pitcher of all time if he didn’t have the freak injuries. I still get sad about it
Click to expand...
Did you watch the Cubs game last night?

1) Leaving Smyly out there after 85 pitches, being hit all game against middle of Reds order.
2) Forcing Wisdom to bunt (he's never bunted) with 2 men on, after his wrist just got lit up, last at bat
3) Pinch hitting Barnhart who was facing a righty with men on in a game-tying situation against his former team (don't you think he wants to be there), for Yan fucking Gomes who struck out on 3 pitches.

Cubs lose by 1 run on the account of David Ross over thinking and being a complete idiot.
 
On a totally random note where that fucking lefty pitcher we got from rays for Arozarena? I knew the minute we made that trade we were getting shafted, the rays don’t trade away young cost controlled pitchers the believe in, we need pitching and this kid has sucked so bad he still nowhere to be found, while Arozarena been balling out for rays, almost won them a WS and just keeps on being a spark plug for their lineup. I just freaking knew this pitcher would never pan out, rule of thumb, don’t trade w the rays unless you want them to eat your lunch, and dinner! You don’t compete on their level with no payroll, no fan support, In a brutal division where all the other teams spend without robbing sone teams in trades! Lon
 
2daBank said:
On a totally random note where that fucking lefty pitcher we got from rays for Arozarena? I knew the minute we made that trade we were getting shafted, the rays don’t trade away young cost controlled pitchers the believe in, we need pitching and this kid has sucked so bad he still nowhere to be found, while Arozarena been balling out for rays, almost won them a WS and just keeps on being a spark plug for their lineup. I just freaking knew this pitcher would never pan out, rule of thumb, don’t trade w the rays unless you want them to eat your lunch, and dinner! You don’t compete on their level with no payroll, no fan support, In a brutal division where all the other teams spend without robbing sone teams in trades! Lon
Click to expand...
Rays are the best run team in professional sports
 
peelpub94 said:
Did you watch the Cubs game last night?

1) Leaving Smyly out there after 85 pitches, being hit all game against middle of Reds order.
2) Forcing Wisdom to bunt (he's never bunted) with 2 men on, after his wrist just got lit up, last at bat
3) Pinch hitting Barnhart who was facing a righty with men on in a game-tying situation against his former team (don't you think he wants to be there), for Yan fucking Gomes who struck out on 3 pitches.

Cubs lose by 1 run on the account of David Ross over thinking and being a complete idiot.
Click to expand...
Yep. Absolutely brutal evening for him. Makes it worse is Wisdom came on a 3-0 count
 
is Strahm basically the start of a opener for Phillies? He didn’t get stretched out past 2 innings this spring, threw a inning already out of pen. If we could trust he was gonna go 3-4 innings his k prop would have appeal but I can’t imagine that gonna be the case. The Phillies pen has been god awful, I can’t imagine they can have a game in bronx where they trot out 5-6 pitchers and nobody gets blown up! I don’t love German either, his velo been ticking down. 8.5 feels a bit short here as I think there potential for a few crooked numbers here.
 
KJ said:
Rays are the best run team in professional sports
Click to expand...

No doubt. You gotta be a damn fool to trade w them and take a allegedly top pitching prospect w years of cost control service. I guess cards were like the idiot fans around here and thought they were dealing from a position of surplus as they thought we were cause they believed in some our at the time crAppy outfielders! My stance always was no way Rays trade that kind of pitcher unless there something about him they don’t like and since he been here the times he has pitched i saw all the things the rays didn’t like! Liberatore, that his name, couldn’t think of at all. I assume he has to be hurt for me not to have heard his name in the mix or seen him in spring? He sucks anyways so don’t matter. Just don’t trade with these guys if they offering you a pitcher unless he entering arbitration or contract years, that different, and damn sure don’t send them one your lower level pitchers they want cause they have a great eye!!
 
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Think yanks tt ov 4.5 -105 where I’m leaning there. If Phillies can piece together a opener and not get anyone blown up I’ll pay to see it.
 
KJ said:
Rays are the best run team in professional sports
Click to expand...
I watch every single Rays game whenever I can. Also helps their PBP Dewayne Staats is one of the best in the biz. Went to a game at the Trop a few years back, interesting park to say the least :)
 
peelpub94 said:
I watch every single Rays game whenever I can. Also helps their PBP Dewayne Staats is one of the best in the biz. Went to a game at the Trop a few years back, interesting park to say the least :)
Click to expand...
My sentiments when I went to Safeco and had to walk a mile to find Ichirolls lol
 
Damn. I really like Hayes total bases today, figured 1.5 at decent plus money but they have him same as hits at freaking .5 -170., guess he needs a parlay partner, lucky I have a couple k props w juice that need one also!! Lol
 
pressitup said:
they have the rangers # for some reason
Click to expand...

Crazy with bradish getting hit by pitch the pen held them hitless for 7+ innings. I did hit grey k prop, didn’t notice it till late so didht post but anytime I can get him 4.5 I’m on it.
 
I like Haney but o’s hit lefties. Gibson should pitch well in that pitcher friendly park, o’s getting +125ish is all out of whack imo.
 
Love o’s Ff tt ov 1.5, o’s ml, and Hayes but wish his total bases would go up to 1.5 at plus money
 
There a way around it. I can take Hayes ov 1.5 hits/runs/rbi for +120, love that!! Except a double don’t pay, gotta get 2 hits unless he scores which he should.

Think I like walker and marte same bet ve Darvish. Marte has hit Darvish well, Walker .250 w 2 bombs in 25 abs but he smoking right now. Just not sure if Yu is right or how long he go?
 
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