Ryu back from the IL has two wins, one he was not great @ OAK and one @ ATL he was. He started 4/20 @ BOS and was not very good, though that was the start before he left early and went on the shelf so not sure what to say there. He only went 5 and threw 83 pitches before being removed allowing 4r and only 2 Ks. Somehow he did not face BOS last season, but went 7ip 2r (0 ER) 6:1 K/BB @ Fenway in 2019 while a member of the Dodgers. Looks like they're still in Dunedin for tonight so he'll want to avoid contact to try and keep the ball in the yard.
No game yesterday means both bullpens are fresh, much needed for Romano who went 3 in 4. He seems to be the most important reliever, though there's still a lot of talent on the IL. Chatwood as the 8th inning guy is scary, especially being the favorite against a BOS team who has played well and have some good arms going tonight.
Entering the year i thought about fading rusty ERod off his myocarditis and missing all of 2020, but there haven't been a ton of opportunities to do it. He was great beating Ryu on 4/20, and allowed 3ER or less in his first 4 starts before having some trouble in 2 of his last three. He's never been able to offer a ton of length, but can at times and the bullpen behind him is pretty strong. Whitlock seems to be used for 2 IP more than just one, but he's been great and could take a piece of that 7th inning role as Andriese and Hernandez don't seem like solutions there. Sawamura maybe, though he's been more of an early reliever if a starter hasn't gone deep. It doesn't appear that ERod's enemy known as "reaching the 7th" is as big of a deal considering the back end of the bullpen with much more trustworthy arms than Toronto has.
No lineups yet, but both are potent and should make the park look small. TOR is R heavy, so is BOS and we have two southpaws tonight. BOS bullpen very RHP and what exists in the TOR pen is also that side. Ryu with reverse splits, though L show a little more power. Similar goes for ERod, though even more drastic splits and more power from the far fewer L he's faced in his career.
So current price is 46% chance for BOS to win this with a tight SP matchup that probably favors Ryu plus last AB. I'm not sure i buy the TOR lineup just yet, still think they struggle to work counts and then there's the glaring mismatch in the bullpen. We'll see how deep Ryu can get, though he has not reached 100 pitches once this season. That can't be coincidence after 7 starts, though ERod has not hit the century-mark either. Less of a problem with a better bullpen, but still something to consider.
2019 one QS at home and one bad start on the road in Toronto for ERod, with all the young bats i'm not sure it makes too much sense to look further back and maybe not even so much at 2019.
