Tuesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Apr 13 Tue 2021

1:10 PM
965Boston Red SoxN. Eovaldi -R+131O 8½
-105
966Minnesota TwinsK. Maeda -R+1 Markets-142U 8½
-115
5:35 PM
951San Diego PadresB. Snell -L-220O 7½
-125
952Pittsburgh PiratesC. Kuhl -R+1 Markets+200U 7½
+105
6:05 PM
967Seattle MarinersN. Margevicus -L+125O 9
+100
968Baltimore OriolesJ. Means -L+1 Markets-135U 9
-120
6:07 PM
969New York YankeesJ. Tallion -R+111O 9
-119
970Toronto Blue JaysH. Ryu -L+1 Markets-121U 9
-101
6:10 PM
971Texas RangersK. Gibson -R+158O 8
-120
972Tampa Bay RaysR. Yarbrough -L+1 Markets-172U 8
+100
6:20 PM
955Miami MarlinsP. Lopez -R+170O 8
-110
956Atlanta BravesM. Fried -L+1 Markets-185U 8
-110
6:40 PM
957Chicago CubsK. Hendricks -R+130O 7½
-120
958Milwaukee BrewersB. Woodruff -R+1 Markets-141U 7½
+100
6:45 PM
959Washington NationalsS. Strasburg -R+107O 7½
-105
960St. Louis CardinalsJ. Flaherty -R+1 Markets-117U 7½
-115
7:10 PM
973Los Angeles AngelsD. Bundy -R-135O 9
+100
974Kansas City RoyalsD. Duffy -L+1 Markets+125U 9
-120
7:10 PM
975Cleveland IndiansS. Bieber -R-113O 7
-125
976Chicago White SoxL. Giolito -R+1 Markets+103U 7
+105
7:10 PM
977Detroit TigersM. Boyd -L+161O 9
+100
978Houston AstrosJ. Odorizzi -R+1 Markets-175U 9
-120
8:45 PM
961Cincinnati RedsL. Castillo -R-102O 7½
-105
962San Francisco GiantsK. Gausman -R+1 Markets-108U 7½
-115
9:10 PM
963Colorado RockiesA. Senzatela -R+296O 8
-110
964Los Angeles DodgersT. Bauer -R-335U 8
-110
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Sunday is a rest day. Not sure why it ever got laden with the important role of starting the week.
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Who wants to start on a Monday? Gotta slow roll into the week when your boss may have shot 98 in the member/guest over the weekend, ran out of scotch and the wife went to Vegas with the girls.
 
pressitup said:
Who wants to start on a Monday? Gotta slow roll into the week when your boss may have shot 98 in the member/guest over the weekend, ran out of scotch and the wife went to Vegas with the girls.
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that sounds like a tough monday for the subordinate
 
i've wanted to back the Fish for a while, but the lack of offense has kept me away.

Trying to be very selective this season, but normally Hendricks would be a play. The CHC offense has been historically bad so far, but the MIL offense isn't good either. Peralta now starting removes an important bullpen arm, though they can still go Suter > Devin Will > Hader and a bunch of Cubbies relievers are in COVID quarantine since the bullpen coach popped a positive. Hendricks can complete a game, though hard to bank on that anytime and especially early in the season. Looks like CHC bullpen strongest vs L (Yelich, Shaw, Vogelbach, Narvaez, JBJ) and then not sure what to think about Kimbrel as he has been bad for two years and then Strop who has always been able to get outs while simultaneously giving heart attacks. Mills was a decent change of pace starter, know he gave up at least one bomb this year, so in conclusion the CHC pen is scary. Sounds like a CHC bet is all on Hendricks
 
not a huge fan of NYY vs how they're lined, Judge hasn't shown any power lately and Stanton hasn't shown anything. Chapman looked great on Sunday, but likely unavailable after working b2b days. Taillon also hard to trust after such a long layoff, but he showed some good stuff and especially a good slider. TOR is banged up, important to get Gurriel back yesterday but still missing Teoscar at cleanup and i don't like Grichuk filling in there much. Merryweather has shown well and Dolis had a good year last year then Romano should be able to get outs in the 8th inning and i guess is a decent option to fill in the 9th, Ryu already seen on opening day but has proven he can keep power hitters off balance. I guess i'm just really surprised to see NYY dogged after being wrongfully favored in each game at the Trop when they should have been swept, TOR can't possibly be more valued than TB???
 
strasburg initially on my list as i'm not a huge Flaherty fan, but Hand working b2b days coming off the COVID list with 26 pitches thrown yesterday first week of the season makes me think he's not available today. Suero/Rainey/Finnegan/Avilan looks like they'll need a cushion to close it out late and i don't know where that comes from besides Soto

not sure what to make of CIN, but hoped Gausman would be dogged. He's been incredible and i'm not sure what changed

GIOLITO is game of the day, don't like the CLE lineup and think Bieber is more hittable than he gets lined or than his stats suggest. Problem is Bieber Karinchak Clase is very hard to see any sort of crooked numbers meaning Giolito will have to be on and so will his bullpen unless you play extra innings roulette. Batting last is a big deal to me even though road teams have won more with the little league rules implemented last season, would prefer to back the White Sox lineup if they somehow move to a dog
 
GWarner27 said:
strasburg initially on my list as i'm not a huge Flaherty fan, but Hand working b2b days coming off the COVID list with 26 pitches thrown yesterday first week of the season makes me think he's not available today. Suero/Rainey/Finnegan/Avilan looks like they'll need a cushion to close it out late and i don't know where that comes from besides Soto

not sure what to make of CIN, but hoped Gausman would be dogged. He's been incredible and i'm not sure what changed

GIOLITO is game of the day, don't like the CLE lineup and think Bieber is more hittable than he gets lined or than his stats suggest. Problem is Bieber Karinchak Clase is very hard to see any sort of crooked numbers meaning Giolito will have to be on and so will his bullpen unless you play extra innings roulette. Batting last is a big deal to me even though road teams have won more with the little league rules implemented last season, would prefer to back the White Sox lineup if they somehow move to a dog
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tribe really blew their chance at picking up a W yesterday, when they tied it in 6th they still had bases loaded no outs and couldnt bring in the go ahead run!! Then of course ya probably saw how they lost it in the 9th on a ball that shoulda been a double play the throw to 2nd hits runner in the head! Tough way to start a series in a game they absolutely shoulda won.
 
Biebs last few trips to cws park he wasn’t great, Giolito isn’t his best on 6 days rest as he is here. Good ump but they not playing any games with this Ff under, u3.5 is taxed to shit, basically to the point it unplayable, so ya gotta play u3 if you want it. I don’t think I can get down with that, freaking 2-1 a push? No thanks.
 
2daBank said:
Biebs last few trips to cws park he wasn’t great, Giolito isn’t his best on 6 days rest as he is here. Good ump but they not playing any games with this Ff under, u3.5 is taxed to shit, basically to the point it unplayable, so ya gotta play u3 if you want it. I don’t think I can get down with that, freaking 2-1 a push? No thanks.
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ff under has been fantastic in Biebs starts but they appear to be catching on!
 
2daBank said:
Biebs last few trips to cws park he wasn’t great, Giolito isn’t his best on 6 days rest as he is here. Good ump but they not playing any games with this Ff under, u3.5 is taxed to shit, basically to the point it unplayable, so ya gotta play u3 if you want it. I don’t think I can get down with that, freaking 2-1 a push? No thanks.
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anything goes wrong and your u3 is screwed. Especially weird since 6ip 3er is a QS, but you're requiring two in one less inning just to push
 
GWarner27 said:
anything goes wrong and your u3 is screwed. Especially weird since 6ip 3er is a QS, but you're requiring two in one less inning just to push
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yea I agree, I don’t like it. Just brought up cause I know a lot of us been playing tribe Ff unders, Biebs in particular last few seasons.
 
GWarner27 said:
strasburg initially on my list as i'm not a huge Flaherty fan, but Hand working b2b days coming off the COVID list with 26 pitches thrown yesterday first week of the season makes me think he's not available today. Suero/Rainey/Finnegan/Avilan looks like they'll need a cushion to close it out late and i don't know where that comes from besides Soto

not sure what to make of CIN, but hoped Gausman would be dogged. He's been incredible and i'm not sure what changed

GIOLITO is game of the day, don't like the CLE lineup and think Bieber is more hittable than he gets lined or than his stats suggest. Problem is Bieber Karinchak Clase is very hard to see any sort of crooked numbers meaning Giolito will have to be on and so will his bullpen unless you play extra innings roulette. Batting last is a big deal to me even though road teams have won more with the little league rules implemented last season, would prefer to back the White Sox lineup if they somehow move to a dog
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I tend to lean under in the WhiteSox gameI think both pitchers get their own and both these offenses have not been very impressive to me, I believe 2-3 times last night they were loaded bases with 0 outs and neither team produced any runs from it. Need to check the wind, but i'm leaning that way.

Have to go under again in the Jays game; Ryu will keep them off balanced and apparently only catchers from the yankees do damage against Jays pitching. If Rowdy continues t be in the lineup i'm not sure how serious I can take it.
 
I like the Ff under way better in milw, think everything sets up real nicely there. Great ump, both starters combined only have one start wit estabrook behind the plate but it was a 8 inning gem by woodruff. Only thing I dislike is it another rematch game. Both pitchers have owned these lineups, last time out neither allowed a run! Neither lineup sporting a ops above .600 vs righties this year. I’ll pay the -120 on u4 here.
 
gsro said:
I tend to lean under in the WhiteSox gameI think both pitchers get their own and both these offenses have not been very impressive to me, I believe 2-3 times last night they were loaded bases with 0 outs and neither team produced any runs from it. Need to check the wind, but i'm leaning that way.

Have to go under again in the Jays game; Ryu will keep them off balanced and apparently only catchers from the yankees do damage against Jays pitching. If Rowdy continues t be in the lineup i'm not sure how serious I can take it.
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wind blowing out 10mph in Chicago.
 
Nats left sooo many runs on the bases last night, cardinals did in later innings but i know nats had at least 2x with bases juiced less than 2 outs and failed to score. Guess that what I get for trying a 2nd cardinals over in a row but damn that should have hit 9 easy!!
 
I want so bad for flaherty to be a legit ace who in the cy young conversation but damn I just don’t see it. Ever since that amazing 2nd half of the ‘19 season I been waiting to see that guy again but just dont. His walks way up, his velo down. I mean he pitched 6 scoreless in mia but most pitchers are doing that to the fish lineup!! I don’t know how the hell he opened as a fav to stras?
 
Not much a sample but Stras has Had 2 fantastic starts in his career with Barksdale while flaherty has had 1 that wasn’t so hot.
 
VC you got numbers on flaherty velo in just his Miami start? I wanna say it still wasn’t up where it should be but I can’t find them. Kinda giving a pass for the opening day start in cincy cause it was cold as shit and both starters struggled. Even if he was in top form I have a hard time saying we should be favs over nats. Maybe 1st 5 would be better? Little gun shy on Ff side after brewers waited till the 6th to score runs yesterday, lol. As GW mentioned Hand probably not available today.
 
MLB network showed Tatis jr taking bp a few minutes ago! That awesome, I thought for sure his season was toast when saw him get hurt!
 
So we have 2 double headers today. Still not sure how I feel bout the 7 inning games? Kinda like them, kinda don’t. If you have a good starter you should be able to go starter right to closer!
 
2daBank said:
I want so bad for flaherty to be a legit ace who in the cy young conversation but damn I just don’t see it. Ever since that amazing 2nd half of the ‘19 season I been waiting to see that guy again but just dont. His walks way up, his velo down. I mean he pitched 6 scoreless in mia but most pitchers are doing that to the fish lineup!! I don’t know how the hell he opened as a fav to stras?
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Flaherty reputation at home vs Nats with a ton of COVID impact and likely no Hand
 
lfhlaw said:
So is he playing today? or more likely tomorrow?
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I don’t know that he that close, I just assume it means he back back at some point much sooner than I feared initially. Caption below still said out indefinitely, no clue on a time table.
 
GWarner27 said:
Flaherty reputation at home vs Nats with a ton of COVID impact and likely no Hand
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yea, Jack just hasn’t been that guy he supposed to be imo. I assume all the guys who came back into nats lineup yesterday will once again be playing?
 
yes but it just seems to me the impact of COVID is a decrease in performance level even after they return to action
 
So what do we think of Gibson? He bounced back really well from getting rocked in Kc. His velo is higher now than it ever been (which a little suspect at his age!). His overall numbers vs rays and at trop not good but most the bad was from a long time ago. I would think he be fine here, at his best on 5 days rest which he is tonight, rays lineup not exactly setting the world on fire vs righties with a .660 ops on the year.
 
2daBank said:
Nats left sooo many runs on the bases last night, cardinals did in later innings but i know nats had at least 2x with bases juiced less than 2 outs and failed to score. Guess that what I get for trying a 2nd cardinals over in a row but damn that should have hit 9 easy!!
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I had the over, and saw 5-2 bases loaded and watched them grt noting lol
 
Big daddy naught said:
I had the over, and saw 5-2 bases loaded and watched them grt noting lol
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me too bro. Nats did that shit twice at least, once against Gant then later on against the pen. It was kinda a carbon copy to the fish series where our pitchers put guys all over the bases but nats wernt able to get them home.

hate to say it but gant living a charmed life. When he controlling that Vulcan change it a really good pitch but his velo way down as a starter. I hate that our rotation in such bad shape w injuries to few guys we having to start him cause he was a really good weapon out the pen where he could give Max effort for a inning or 2. Wanna say it was 3rd inning when he walked Soto to load bases, got down 3-1 to Bell then threw b2b 93 mph fastballs right down heart of plate but Bell couldn’t catch up, not sure if it was him fearing that change or if his timing just off being his 1st game of the year? Id guess the latter cause woulda been surprising if he threw the change in those counts and risked walking a run home!! Either way should have def been more runs in that game as cards started stranding guys in the later innings! Just the 8th and 9th I counted at least 6 runners stranded! It won’t be long till Gant gets blown up like we saw coming for de Leon against Milw! It coming! Lol
 
2daBank said:
So what do we think of Gibson? He bounced back really well from getting rocked in Kc. His velo is higher now than it ever been (which a little suspect at his age!). His overall numbers vs rays and at trop not good but most the bad was from a long time ago. I would think he be fine here, at his best on 5 days rest which he is tonight, rays lineup not exactly setting the world on fire vs righties with a .660 ops on the year.
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he's in a great pitcher's park but good luck predicting what he will do
 
2daBank said:
So what do we think of Gibson? He bounced back really well from getting rocked in Kc. His velo is higher now than it ever been (which a little suspect at his age!). His overall numbers vs rays and at trop not good but most the bad was from a long time ago. I would think he be fine here, at his best on 5 days rest which he is tonight, rays lineup not exactly setting the world on fire vs righties with a .660 ops on the year.
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im never real sure on Yarbrough but he solid and Rangers really struggling hitting lefties, .569 collective ops to begin this year and that in line with last season where they ranked 28th in baseball hitting them. We know rays will yank a guy if he has problems but not too worried they will have to. I’d rather avoid the pens so Ff under 4 for me.
 
GWarner27 said:
he's in a great pitcher's park but good luck predicting what he will do
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surprised to see his velo up close to 2 mph across the board. He has had some issues at the trop but they were years ago. Gotta figure he can limit tampa for 5/6 innings.
 
You would kinda expect Fried to bounce back off his horrific last start where he only lasted 2 innings vs nats. Problem is the fish have hit him well and this weak lineup is actually pretty decent against lefty pitching, only muffle the pack with a .725 collective ops thus far but they ranked 8th in baseball against lefties last season so don’t think it a fluke the offense looks better when getting a lefty on the bump.

I wouldn’t expect Marlins pen to win another game vs Braves pen but Lopez is yet another one of fish young stud arms featuring a wicked change up. His k/9 a little low but he gets ppl to pound the ball into the ground. Outside of Acuna who just ripping the cover off the ball not many other Braves bats scaring ppl right now. Despite having good numbers vs most the Braves (not named Acuna of course!) Sun trust has been a house of horrors for Pablo! Despite Braves havinv a collective .665 ops vs him that number rockets up to .873 when pitching at Atl. Is there a reason for that or just a strange anomaly that sure to correct itself? I def consider this to be a hitters park but to that extent?

there too many things that make me worry about the Ff under but fish at +130 or better on Ff ml could be worth it.
 
honestly not sure i buy Fried as he has not pitched up to those lofty numbers he's achieved, seems like a good not great but i can be convinced i just time watching him on his bad days...

Smith worked b2b taking the loss on SNB and then the 9th last night so maybe he's unavailable? Minter and Jones, too. So Matzek and Tomlin tonight with a little Luke Jackson bringing us back to the Braves bullpen of old?

I really dislike the Marlins lineup, to the point where the team twitter account was tweeting things like "we finally scored a run!" but the Braves lineup has been pretty hideous so far. I backed Pablo when he i think allowed 9 runs in a single inning either last year or the year before that @ATL

Just trying to think if you back Miami, you need Pablo to pitch well and then the better-rested bullpen to hold on while they get a few off Fried. Other options are both SPs get shelled and you hang on-- don't really like this one-- or ATL bullpen collapses late. That last one seems possible, though I guess they could use the good pen 3 in a row as i'm not sure everybody has dismissed that idea just yet.

Braves are more likely to blow the Fish out, not really sure there's a road for the Fish to do that, so at best this is a nailbiter. However at +147 there are worse bets to make
 
2daBank said:
You would kinda expect Fried to bounce back off his horrific last start where he only lasted 2 innings vs nats. Problem is the fish have hit him well and this weak lineup is actually pretty decent against lefty pitching, only muffle the pack with a .725 collective ops thus far but they ranked 8th in baseball against lefties last season so don’t think it a fluke the offense looks better when getting a lefty on the bump.

I wouldn’t expect Marlins pen to win another game vs Braves pen but Lopez is yet another one of fish young stud arms featuring a wicked change up. His k/9 a little low but he gets ppl to pound the ball into the ground. Outside of Acuna who just ripping the cover off the ball not many other Braves bats scaring ppl right now. Despite having good numbers vs most the Braves (not named Acuna of course!) Sun trust has been a house of horrors for Pablo! Despite Braves havinv a collective .665 ops vs him that number rockets up to .873 when pitching at Atl. Is there a reason for that or just a strange anomaly that sure to correct itself? I def consider this to be a hitters park but to that extent?

there too many things that make me worry about the Ff under but fish at +130 or better on Ff ml could be worth it.
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the day off sunday gives Miami an advantage in the pen that i would want the full-game rather than 1st 5 even with little league rules if it hits extra innings
 
GWarner27 said:
the day off sunday gives Miami an advantage in the pen that i would want the full-game rather than 1st 5 even with little league rules if it hits extra innings
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think im just passing, I don’t like Lopez numbers while pitching at atl park, not a very big sample but it could be he just fares better against these guys at home in his pitcher friendly park? Tough game, I prefer Marlins vs lefties but would think Fried will pitch better after getting knocked out early his last start. Imo it fish or nothing but I been on little skid last few days so limiting plays.
 
2daBank said:
think im just passing, I don’t like Lopez numbers while pitching at atl park, not a very big sample but it could be he just fares better against these guys at home in his pitcher friendly park? Tough game, I prefer Marlins vs lefties but would think Fried will pitch better after getting knocked out early his last start. Imo it fish or nothing but I been on little skid last few days so limiting plays.
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that one bad start they lost 29-9, but last 10 innings @ATL including postseason he's 10ip 2r
 
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