Tuesday 01/06/15 NBA discussion thread

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
[TABLE="class: linesTbl, width: 954"]
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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - TUE 1/6[/h][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesColumns"]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Tue 1/6[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]501[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Phoenix Suns[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-4.5 1.961[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.552[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 210 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]502[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Milwaukee Bucks [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+4.5 1.943[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.630[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 210 1.909[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Tue 1/6[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]503[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Detroit Pistons[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+7.5 2.020[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 4.050[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 200 1.917[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]05:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]504[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]San Antonio Spurs[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-7.5 1.884[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.285[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 200 1.990[/TD]
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Agree. Regarding the Suns game. Have only looked at this for about 10 minutes but the side is not clear. I do not see this as a revenge game in any way but the Suns probably do. Milwaukee is 12-4 ATS on 1 days rest. Suns are 13-7. Its a better day of week for them. Now both teams won by over 10. At home Milwaukee is 0-2 in that spot but that is a short sample. Suns I think are 7-1 ATS after a 10 plus win but Covers has a different number. They show 4-1. Now Milwaukee does not like overs on 1 days rest 5-11 I think. I really doubt the Suns give them any choice though. 209 is the number they show. I took over 209.5 at a casino, I want to see the refs in the morning and think more about this but for the Suns on the road that is a SMALL number. Think about it. In general Milwaukee is 2-4 at home after a win and Suns are 8-5 away. Its a little tricky because they are a good team and very good on 1 days rest.
 
Took Atlanta who is winning, got Jazz over and GS is lock like but my biggest bet was the over in GS and OKC is whimping out. 69 points late in the fourth and GS is just costing with a 22 point lead. Very annoying.
 
Covers trends RECENT TRENDS Phoenix Over is 4-0 in Suns last 4 road games. Over is 5-0 in Suns last 5 games following a S.U. win. Suns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Milwaukee Under is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 7-0 in Bucks last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 6-0 in Bucks last 6 overall. Head to Head Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee. Over is 15-6-1 in the last 22 meetings. Suns are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee. ??? Refs are not good for the over. Garretson 9-17 under and 3-6 under 205 Tiven 3-6 under These 2 are 18-8 and 16-11 for the home team May reduce my over bet Probably not. Did a little research. I do not think Milwaukee can wave a wand and make games go under. When they hit teams that play major uptempo the games go over. Major uptempo describes the Suns very well. They are not a slow defensive team and they are far away from the pitiful team off 5 losses and playing worst 3 in 4 that Milwaukee beat at the Suns earlier. The game vs Toronto was very easy. All serious players on the Suns got plenty of rest. Suns have a little edge in size and will be VERY focused for this team. I like Milwaukee but I do think they are out gunned here and not be able to control the tempo in this game. Just realized on the GS game Westbrook and Durant went 8-37 to sink the total.
 
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Vegas Experts trend Phoenix: 31-15 ATS after a non-conference game Milwaukee: 20-37 ATS in home games off a road win by 10 points or more Had already been thinking about this. I like Milwaukee but despite that the Suns are just better and really need games. Last night I should have hit the side.
 
The Suns line seems a little strange to me, these teams played three weeks ago in Phoenix and the Suns were 5', now in Milw they're 4', since that game the Suns are 8-2 SU and the Bucks are 5-5 SU, not sure what to make of it, more than likely a night off in the Association for me, GL guys
 
kane said:
The Suns line seems a little strange to me, these teams played three weeks ago in Phoenix and the Suns were 5', now in Milw they're 4', since that game the Suns are 8-2 SU and the Bucks are 5-5 SU, not sure what to make of it, more than likely a night off in the Association for me, GL guys
Click to expand...

Could be a 2 point Milw win in that game at Phoenix with a 201.5 Total but two weeks before on 11/19 Phoenix was an 8.5 favor at Milwaukee in which they won by 9 with a 209 total. I'm not saying Phoenix is on the downsize but Milwaukee is surprising people ATS Milwaukee from +1 to +7/7.5 is 12-4 ATS Personally I thought the number would be a little lower on the spread and higher on the total. I thought 2.5/3 (opened 3 I see now and 209) would be right and the Total in the 210/211 range. If I bite it will be the side but I may just take the day off
 
Have gone back and forth myself. I finally found a 4 at William Hill and bet the Suns. Refs not nice for that but a simple fact dominates. Suns have 20 wins. ATS in them they are 18-1-1. So worrying about the number is a concern based on Milwaukee's great record on 1 days rest but I think I will chance it. In fact last 10 the spread has never mattered. Win and you cover. GL
 
tuck...lov your stuff...wished my brain worked as well as yours....just read all your posts and all they did was verify my suns play but maybe i am just looking to justify my suns bet that i took last night when it became available at 3.5 -15 (f'ing juice) for as large a play as i play (but i do not vary my bets much 3 or 4 units on 90% and 5 units on 6-7 % and 2 units on need action with not much justification bets)...i have played mil a lot this year successfully but don't see them covering here...they have played 10 out of the last 14 on the road and 8 of the last 11 (i think) and are making a pit stop at home before heading to philly and hopscotching for 3 more games....so tonight makes 15 games in a row in different cities against a suns team that is 8 out of 10 and coming off 5 days at home where they only played two relatively easy games....that combined with all you have laid out above along with suns matching well with mil makes me want to play more...not sure if i am looking at this properly or not but i see an easy 10-15 point suns win where they run away with it when mil gets tired late...my .02...i will look to fade mil for the next 4 games until they get some rest
 
spurs tt over 104 - xxl
3rd qtr over 50 - xl
Bucks +5 - xl
under 210 - large (changed from over- typo)
 
det/spurs hard to figure....8 seems like a gift...det coming off 5 in a row and obviously playing their best ball so far....but in the middle of a tough stretch of 4 in six where they very well may lose here and the next two with dall and atl on deck....nothing easy for the spurs this year but well rested and probably wanting some wins...they aren't blowing anybody out anymore....probably throw a mini on det....if detroit wins tonight i will be on dall heavy i think
 
M.W. said:
Spurs are 2-6 ATS this year with 2+ days of rest.
Click to expand...
I haven't done the research, but I'm assuming with the way the Spurs season has gone between benching players, injuries, and difficult western conference opponents this trend is probably meaningless. Like I said, I haven't looked into it, just a hunch.
 
Paulie The Vig said:
Could be a 2 point Milw win in that game at Phoenix with a 201.5 Total but two weeks before on 11/19 Phoenix was an 8.5 favor at Milwaukee in which they won by 9 with a 209 total. I'm not saying Phoenix is on the downsize but Milwaukee is surprising people ATS Milwaukee from +1 to +7/7.5 is 12-4 ATS Personally I thought the number would be a little lower on the spread and higher on the total. I thought 2.5/3 (opened 3 I see now and 209) would be right and the Total in the 210/211 range. If I bite it will be the side but I may just take the day off
Click to expand...

Paulie, I'm too lazy to look this up, but teams from the East only play teams from the West twice a year, home and home, you must have mistaken one of these teams, or maybe the game you're thinking of was last year, this can't be the third matchup of the year between these teams
 
tuck321 said:
Have gone back and forth myself. I finally found a 4 at William Hill and bet the Suns. Refs not nice for that but a simple fact dominates. Suns have 20 wins. ATS in them they are 18-1-1. So worrying about the number is a concern based on Milwaukee's great record on 1 days rest but I think I will chance it. In fact last 10 the spread has never mattered. Win and you cover. GL
Click to expand...

Good Luck I'm taking the night off. Will be rooting for the Suns.
 
I know the Pistons have been playing very well lately, ever since they rid themselves of Josh Smith. However, the teams they've beaten during their winning streak are Indiana, Cleveland, Orlando, New York, and Sacramento. Other than the Cavs (who aren't as good as advertised), that's not a very impressive list of teams. Also, with the Spurs needing wins, I don't think they'll be overlooking the Pistons like they might in any other year, I have a small lean to the Spurs, but not enough to play them, just thought I'd share some thoughts, GL guys
 
kane said:
Paulie, I'm too lazy to look this up, but teams from the East only play teams from the West twice a year, home and home, you must have mistaken one of these teams, or maybe the game you're thinking of was last year, this can't be the third matchup of the year between these teams
Click to expand...


lol I just looked again it was 1/29/14 not 11. Now I have to start wearing glasses on the computer. I'm telling you I'm not liking this getting old. lol
My mistake thanks.
 
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