Tues play

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2008 posted on CTG

76-64, +24,225

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NoIlly -2.5, -115; 6 units..

about a thousand reasons
 
Already on it Tee. Let's get this week rolling.

Football all day Thurs, Fri, Sat and Sunday!!!!!
 
Would be interested in your take as I was looking at Navy . Thanks . If you have the time that is :shake:
 
Ditto...I'd be interested in two of the 1k reasons.

Unfortunately not a lot of time right now, I may have some later this afternoon.. A few real quickies...

  • I really like NIU defense and I like the way they compete at home.. Give this defense many things to keep track of and they have done pretty well. Give this defense only one thing to think about and I think they do real well. And defending the run happens to be something they excel at already.
  • I have the NIU defense rated (my ratings) the best in the MAC... Temple is pretty good also.. The first three quarters of the Temple/Navy game was interesting to me.
  • I like the way NIU is playing now. Actually like the way they have competed all year with only one exception.. The Kent win was pretty dominating.. They have won 4 of last 6 with the losses At Ball St.. (excusable) and to CMU in OT ..
  • Navy has had some very fortunate wins and even a couple of the close losses were fortunate to be close.. Some will argue that this shows they "just know How to win" and the discipline of the Navy shows in the 4th quarter... I don't buy much into that.. I think it all evens out and what I see with this team is a team that had a very difficult time with a few that NIU can handle IMO...In otherwords, unless something wacky happens , which is possible (see ND game), NIU at home is a much better team.. That is my bet.
  • Also, get tired of the "Navy Discipline angle".. No disrespect meant to any of the armed forces BUT these are not soldiers fighting in Iraq... They may eventually be and god bless them.. But these are 20 year old Navy football players traveling midweek, missing classes (micro Biology, not Physical Education) and in an element that is not familiar to them.. In college football they call that home field advantage and I think there is a reason Navy refuses to move their saturday home games to midweek.. The reason is it is much more disruptive for Navy than other , say less academic minded institutions (enter all MAC schools)
I see the argument on the Navy side and to be honest, I had a very slight lean on them before I dug into it.. It comes down to a very simple matchup--- can NIU defense control Navy running game.. I believe NIU has the best opportunity of any MAC defense to do just that.. I think Navy would give a lot of problems to some of the defenseless MAC teams... I just like this match up and I am rolling top unit with it.

NIU also has the ability to run a lot of time off the clock on offense keeping their defense fresh.. I think that is key... Sometimes your offense can be "too good".. in that if you score too quick (CMU) it means your defense never gets a rest and the game gets out of balance from a TOP perspective and that often shows in the 4th Q.. NIU is effective on offense but in a manner that keeps their defense fresh.. That is extremely important v. Navy...Again of all the MAC teams not named Ball St, I think NIU matches up the best.. Got them at home on a Tuesday night... Yep

Think that was 7 or 8 reasons... Might have time later to list the other 992 Jump;)

Just my opinion and I am hopefully right 55% of the time.
 
are you concerned at all that this defense (9 of the starters at least) gave up 359 yards rushing a year ago to navy in just about the same spot?
 
are you concerned at all that this defense (9 of the starters at least) gave up 359 yards rushing a year ago to navy in just about the same spot?

Obviously I am not concerned or I would not have top unit on it.. But a legit question so I'll give you my thoughts--

No Illy was 2-10 LY, much better this year and fighting for a bowl game, and at home---so lots of differences.. It is true that they return most of a defense that had some problems LY but they also showed some real good signs.. For example, the game you mention... Navy jumped out to a 14 point lead early with Kaipo at QB I believe but No Illy battled back on the road to pull within 4 points in the 4Q, eventually losing but covering as a DD dog.

Also you mention Navy rang them up rushing wise pretty good last year.. Difficult to compare teams from year to year but since you bring it up lets look at other teams that rang up the NIU team rushing wise LY vs what they did this year.. Toledo rushed for 382 in 2007 but only 80 in 2008..:popcorn:

Several others examples show this NoIlly team has improved immensely vs past years and I don't care what this new Navy QB brings , he is not a healthy Kaipo and he is on the road..

Rushing defense ty.. 127 v. Kent; 76 v. BG; 80 v. Tol; 135 v. MiOhio..

Only team that really lit them up was CMU at 241 yards but some of that was in OT..

We shall see but I am pretty sure Navy is not going to rush for nearly 4 bills this year..

Good point though and as I always say, I could be very wrong..
 
appreciate the response, you do make some good points.

i think the stats are a bit skewed by sos however. 6 wins vs teams with a combined 15 wins, 0-4 when playing teams above 500. navy on the other hand has 3 w's against winning teams including wake and air force both ranked at the time. i also think, although concerned about his experience level, dobbs is the real deal and will make plays tonight.

i could be wrong as well!
 
Simply put, it just seems that No. Illy is much better than their 2007 squad, and Navy has dropped a bit since last year.

GL Dub, I'm on it as well.
 
Tee,

Any thoughts on the Buffalo vs. kent state game, i know starks has been good to you, so curious on your thoughts?
 
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