Troy Stacks Week One Lines Final Copy

TroyStacks

TroyStacks

18" Pythons
Alright guys here are the lines you will expct to see. I take a lot of pride in doing this each week and especially for the opening weekend in college football. I have looked over sets of power ratings and listened to your comments through the first 2 rough drafts and combined them on top of the most important capping tool I have which is my head filled with useless shit that will hopefully win me money again this year and experience is what the books will put out as a number in relation to what they should be. So you know these aren't the lines I think they shoudl be at but these are what to expect.

BUFFALO
RUTGERS -26 this game could get ugly qucik IMO

MIOH
BALST +1.5 probably some discrepancies here but this is where it will be

LSU
MISST +21.5 30 too much 17 too little can we agree the books are a little perplexed too? this looks good

UNLV
UTST +6 UNLV is full of knuckleheads with talent and only laying 6-8 may be a good play tough to make lines with a real shitty team

UTAH
OREST -7 after reasearching Utes aren't going to be all that bad, watchout beavers they come to play

NAVY
TEMP +17.5 lets see how well the midshipmens system works, is it soimply plug and chug? this line looks like an indicator it could go either way.

WAS
SYR -1.5 again 2 shitty teams its hard to cap but I think 'cuse comes up victorious at the Carrier Dome.

UAB
MSU -16 both teams with new coaches and QBs but on talent alone in recruiting 2 tds is a gimme lets throw on one more score to fuck with your head up to around 19 expect this line

APPST
MICH -37 just hoping I'm not too optomositic on this line as I will be pounding the dog. UM only has 1 victory of 5 tds or more in the past 3 seasons and Appy ain't bad, could probably crush some MAC teams. Expect 29 at worst to keep us guessing but with preseason hype whi knows where this line will be.

YSU
tOSU -33.5 similiar game to what PSU played against them last year. either way this game comes close to the spread.

FIU
PSU -31.5 look for big things in week 1 from Morelli. Spoke with D.Willaims uncle and he said Derrick is impressed with Morelli this year. I expect big things for this team they crush FIU by 5 tds+....47-9 final I'm calling it haha

ECU
VT -30.5 typical VT home shutout. Can Glennon pass this year?....who cares they run for 4 and throw for 1 TD+ FG=38-0 gimme the fav

ULL
SC -35 fun n gun on these scrubs. Week one blowout for Spurrier.

MAR
MIA -17.5 another tough line. hard to see value in Marshall at all but this line looks damn good in terms of fucking with your mind. Leaves the backdoor wide open. may hit 23 at most I would think.

WMU
WVU -21 WMU is not that bad. WVU is deep everywhere and will want to give experience in the 2H. 1H wager on WVU perhaps is the play but the game goes to the dog. Could be 24.

ARKST
TEX -38.5 can't see this game being anything but 49-0 however this line may just hit the typical 41 texas gives against every shitty ass sunbelt team

CSU
COL -2 hawkins baby lets do it bufs

CMU
KAN -2.5 simply have B10 v.MAC. I like CMU

UVA
WYM +8 will Groh ever get it together? maybe he squeezes one out here this line is right on maaaaybe 2 points off

UCONN
DUKE +10.5 tough one here but history tells us lines involving Duke have been generous for us favorite players. lots of -13,-12,-11 spreads turn into 30 point blows, hard to tell if the books catch on or if they ever will. this is based purely on history of spreads.

WF
BC -6.5 no doubt i am within 1 point here

NEV
NEB -15 migth be a little low either way Neb wins by 20+

MISS
MEM -2 revenge game and Mem is getting better every year

MIZZO
ILL +6 lots of hype on the Juice is the only thing that keep this game from going over the TD mark. Will look at the fave here9yes a change in heart)

WAZST
WISKY -11.5 another tough line as wisky lost their qb and wazzust is garbage this might be 3-4 points to low who knows...fondulous?

IOWA
N.ILL +14 no wolfe no chance....hawkeyes please up to 17

HOU
ORE -13 tough line if you listen to everyone else. personally i think 17 is about right but lots of Duck doubters out there.

GT
ND -3.5 do i have to even explain why the wrong team is favored

UCLA
STAN +14.5 fishy line this week stay away from this one unless I am missing something big

AZ
BYU -2.5 looks like a public dog to me. BYU might just surprise Stoops

BAY
TCU -19.5 better fellas? I think so as TCU gives an ol fashion ass whoopin

UCF
NCST -12 coaching alone you get a TD in this one, tough place to play + new coach excitement just under 2 TDs looks right

ARMY
AKRON -7 Army sucks Akron is over hyped from past years. you pick the value

OSU
UGA -7.5 another fishy line. I liek UGA by 20. Yes 20+ I'm calling it

NTX
OU -34 migth be too high for OU to even score that many but I do see a shutout

TROY
ARK -21.5 run run run the only thing that keeps this under 4 tds.

PUR
TOL +3.5 lets get off purdues dick for a second please. could be a huge sucker bet for B10 backers

KSU
AUB -13 public push that up to 2 scores please!

TEN
CAL -4.5 don't wanna hear about fat fulmer or pussy ass ainge cal gets it done vertically and in SP teams.

BG
MIN -14.5 looks very right on and minny has a habit of fucking up weak opp early on.

SJSU
ASU -13.5 another optomistic line perhaps but this is what I have it capped at.

NM
UTEP +5 researched more and NM is the better team on paper.

IDAHO
USC -44 why not?

TT
SMU +6 fishy line but TT has bufu'd me a lot last year giving up big leads and losing SU as well. Same as CBB hahaha assholes

FSU
CLEM +4 can't fool me FSU is back guys watchout



Well thats that. Lets discuss even more :cheers:
 
Here's what I would bet. This has nothing to do with my lines, or my power ratings, or anything - just what I would bet of these lines.

Ball State +1.5 - This team won at Miami last year as 5-point dogs. Nate Davis is one of the MAC's best QBs, and they have a great 1-2 combo at WR in Hill and Love. They finished last year strong with wins in 3 of their last 4, and thrashed Kent in the finale. Miami has to replace their biggest offensive weapon in Ryne Robinson, and two guys in the secondary. I'll take a shot with a home doggie.

Mississippi State +21.5 - Simply too many points for me to pass up for a home doggie in an SEC game, especially in the season opener. LSU has the big contest against VT on deck, and more than likely won't get up for this one. MSU isn't great, but they hung with SC last year despite Henig getting hurt, and I think they can stay within 3 TD's.

Michigan State -16 - I think UAB is going to be horrible, and I don't think MSU will be half bad. This is simply a play on a team who I believe will play hard under Dantonio, against a team who must replace a ton of guys and has a guy coaching his first collegiate game.

Colorado State +2 - Better team here, and I see major improvement from last year. Coaching advantage, QB advantage, and advantage at the skill positions in my opinion. This game simply means more to them as well - I'll take a chance here.

Kansas -2.5 - I expect a drop off for CMU, atleast to start the season. They have a new coach coming in, must replace some key guys, and I just think they struggle compared to last year. Kansas should be better on D, and I think they have the advantage here being at home.

Wyoming +8 - Cavs traveling across the country to the middle of nowhere to play a team they should've lost to last year. How is this not close?

Duke +10.5 - UConn isn't this good. Duke isn't this bad.

Memphis -2 - This is the better team and yet another situation where I think they want it more. They are improving, and I expect them to win this one.

Georgia Tech +3.5 - Enough said...

Stanford +14.5 - I think this team plays hard and is competitive under the new coach. I don't think UCLA gets up for this one.

Purdue -3.5 - Because you are hating on them

Cal -4.5 - They win this game by 14+. Big revenge spot and their WRs will torch Tennessee's secondary. It will take Tennessee's offense a while to click with some new WRs.

UTEP +6 - New Mexico upset them as big dogs last year - do I smell a little revenge? Home team usually wins between these two.

Texas Tech -6 - Just because they own SMU, and always blow non-conference teams out. Surely they can't drop off this much in one year.
 
Stacks - If these ended up being the actual lines, here are the only ones I would consider playing...

MSU - would prefer 2 TD or less spread though but would strongly consider a 16 or 16.5 as MSU needs to make the home crowd happy in this one and I don't see them letting off the gas even when they get up early.

Memphis - hope it comes out at pk or 1 but I will go with the home team here at anything less than 2 or 2.5 most likely.

Texas Tech - but I see this one being closer to 13 to get even action

Miami - With OU on tap I would take Miami at under 3 scores ie 16.5 but wouldn't pay 130 for it

Texas - Will be a play at anything under 45 most likely.

Wisky - If I can get them and/or Minny at 10 or less (which I don't think will happen) I will probably play it...anything higher, probably a pass

Final thought...I almost never play dogs, except for teams like Buffalo (remember the Auburn game cover) and Ball State (remember the UM game cover) when they are getting in the high 30's or 40's, so App State looks like an interesting spot that fits the kind of dog I like. With conservative Carr at the helm, I could easily see them letting off the gas and having this end up like 42-7 or something. Would love 38.5 or more here but not sure I will get it.

Most of the games I am eyeing are the Div 1-A vs 1-AA matchups so if anyone wants to toss out a few line projections on those, we can compare numbers.

Nice job Stacks!
 
good work as usual troy.
i think a couple of these are off as to what the linesmakers will post.


new mexico will not be giving utep 5 points. it wont happen. i agree with your assessment that nm is the better team on paper but i think utep will actually be the posted favorite in this one. also , while it is a meaningless game across the country uteps big rivalry games are nm and nmsu.

uconn wont be laying double digits on the road to duke. it should be more in the 3-5 range from the books.

dont see virginia giving 8 in that game. i want to play virg at 4 or less but if it goes to 8 ugamug. someone above asked why this game wouldnt be close this year given the fact that wyoming outplayed virg last year ( and they did). the reason i see virg winning this one is that they appear superior to me at the three most improtant positions, ol , dl and qb. just the same i would never play this if they post an 8

i see kansas more in the 5-6 range and i would bet them at that number , i would go huge at 2.5. last year vs toledo kansas completely dominated but found a way to lose .. that loss cost them a bowl game last year and they should take care of cmu in this one. also, this and the purdue toledo game are the rare occurences of look aheads for underdogs. HUGE conference tilt the next week when toledo plays cmu


a lot of folks like you pointing out the mich st / uab tilt. i am truly worried that i havent given uab enough "credit" for being bad.
 
they will kill NO TEX absolutly murder them, i see no let up, first home game for OU waiting since they lost to boise to show the world somehting, they will come out hungry and domolish no tx, like you said definite shutout
 
Only commenting on the MWC lines:

UNLV/UTAH STATE
I wouldn't, and I'm not sure who should, ever lay points with the Rebels on the road. I more than realize that Utah State is a high school team on HGH, but the Rebels are awful. The Aggies are the same team that went 6-16 during the 04 and 05 seasons with two of those 6 wins coming against the Rebels. I haven't seen enough positive things out of Las Vegas to put the Rebels as favorites.

UTAH/Oregon State
I'm almost sure we'll at least see the hook on the 7 here possibly more. The Beavers are coming off of a strong finish in 06 while Utah backers don't have to look past last year to see their team as a touchdown underdog to a Pac team to open the season. I vividly remember from my Rose Bowl seats an ass whoopin from the Bruins. I'd love to be wrong here but I don't see the Utes staying within a touchdown of the Beavers in Oregon.

CSU/COL
I'd definitley be interested in the Buffs under a FG. The demise of the Rams continues in what might be a long farewell for Lubbick.

UVA/WYO
Absolutely love to see the Cowboys grab 8 points here. The Cowboys always step up during big games in non conference and playing in Laramie is an impossible task for many teams the first time around. Anything over a TD is a gift here IMO.

BYU/Arizona
Not sure how first time starter Max Hall will be able to do against a Bob Stoops defense returning 10 starters. This might be a learning experience for Hall. Certainly agree about the public dog comment. Depending on the # this could be a great under play with the conception that BYU will be an air out type team. Growing pains could keep this total low.

Baylor/TCU
Only worry here is TCU peaking ahead to Texas. Wouldn't play it based on that. I've seen teams looking to week two all summer and getting their asses handed to them in week one.

UM/UTEP
I know absolutely nothing about UTEP at this point.
 
lindetrain- you going to make me become a purdue expert now? hahaha. guess so i have to find out why you are so high on them.
 
Troy - Appreciate the effort, good work.

Games I would consider betting at these lines... Don't have time to expand on reasoning but will after I coach baseball today.


Wash +1.5: They are the better team
SC -18 (first half): ULL gets blown out of the water early.
GaTech+3.5: GAME OF THE WEEK
UCLA -14: I buy the hook. I will be surprised if Stanford scores 10points.
AZ +2.5: Defense will carry them vs. BYU. Feel like this is a side I might avoid though, they remind me of the Padres in MLB, shitty fuken offense.
Purdue -3: Bout my limit right here on the road with these fools but too much on offense with QB-RB-WR combo. Control the L.O.S as well.
ASU -13.5: I like this under 2 TD's but would prob be a smaller play than some other ones. ASU will be able to pound the ball on them with 5 OL back and very good RB. Carpenter rebounds this yr as well.
USC -24 (First half): They name the score
FSU -4: Hope Clemsux gets a lot of respect for their homefield, 2 consecutive wins over FSU its -1 or -2 but I will take 4

You killed my NM bet, +5 looked alot better than -5 on the road.
 
TroyStacks said:
lindetrain- you going to make me become a purdue expert now? hahaha. guess so i have to find out why you are so high on them.
Click to expand...

Hahaha no, I was just messing with you. I'm not really high on them, but I think I give them a little more respect than you do. Either that, or you really like Toledo's team this year.
 
Troy first off great thread, football can't come soon enough.


Pending injuries or suspensions here is what i am eyeing right now:

Texas- want to set the tone early this season.

PSU first half- I think they come out gunning because PSU has the best WR corps in the country and paterno knows it.

Appalachian State, only a play if i get 36 or more

UCONN- play at -9.5 or less, i think duke once again will prove why they should be in the ivy league conference.

Georgia Tech, is there a method to the book's madness???

Georgia-7, may even buy down to seven within 1 point. I really like this team this year. I think their progress of their aerial attack will prove easy breathing to Georgia backers.

FSU- I really want -3, clemson is a tough place to play so i may lay off unless i get that -3. FSU offense will have it together this year and clemson lost substantial people on the D line, with this in mind hopefully teh Qb will complete more than 3 passes a game.

Minnesota- pretty much taililng them blindly as they have been money in years past on home openers.

Purdue-getting plus points at toledo WTF???? does anyone have insight on this game that may help me out, i thought the other side would be favored.
 
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