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B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
This is one of the better fields we have seen for this tournament in some time.

Obviously we know Bubba's history here, with 3 wins since 2010 and a 2nd place finish. Reavie won last year by 4 strokes....

The first few weeks back on tour have been awesome so far. Hopefully more to come! You all are filling the threads with great info and winners. Keep it up!
 
Bubba feels like the sucker bet but I’ll probably bet it anyway. Already pulled the trigger on DJ at 28-1 for $100. He’s down to 25 now on both my sites. I saw some people get 30s. He’s rounding into form and that number is still too high.
 
At least this one happened before the tourney - I cant get over how they treat every single one of these like breaking news though
 
Short course, tiny greens - SG: Approach to Green (and GIR) seems to matter from what I've been reading. So does putting, but that always matters. That being said, below are my picks, the number I locked, and some commentary:
  • Morikawa 33 to 1 - #3 SG: A-G, #1 is Hatton who isn't here this week, Leishman is #2 | playing well and have to think he has shrugged off Colonial misfortune after a tepid Harbour Town
  • Paul Casey 33 to 1 - #8 SG: A-G | outside Bubba, probably best record in past 10 years at TPC River Highlands | first action since hiatus so should be rested
  • Keegan 100 to 1 - solid record at TPC River Highlands | more or less a home course for him
  • Chez 125 to 1 - back to backs don't often happen but he won last year by 4 shots which impresses me, doubt he was on anyone's radar then | MC at Colonial, made the weekend in SC so quasi rested | accurate driver of the golf ball which is important with 4 inch primary rough
  • Niemann 55 to 1 - #16 SG: A-G and put on a clinic last week at Harbour Town with his irons | let's ride the hot hand... speaking of
  • Ancer 35 to 1 - if it weren't for Webb's torrid stretch on the back 9, Abe gets his first PGA tour win | #11 SG: A-G
  • Bubba 28 to 1 - 3 wins since 2010 at TPC River Highlands | in decent form after the reset with a t7 at Colonial
  • Cantlay 25 to 1 - #4 SG: A-G | t15 past two years at TPC River Highlands | shot a ~60 here in 2011 | well rested although some rumors say his back is hurting?
  • Brooks 20 to 1 - four "fascinating" rounds in SC, I think the momentum rolls into this week
May add a couple more. Good luck everyone!
 
Trash TD said:
Short course, tiny greens - SG: Approach to Green (and GIR) seems to matter from what I've been reading. So does putting, but that always matters. That being said, below are my picks, the number I locked, and some commentary:
  • Morikawa 33 to 1 - #3 SG: A-G, #1 is Hatton who isn't here this week, Leishman is #2 | playing well and have to think he has shrugged off Colonial misfortune after a tepid Harbour Town
  • Paul Casey 33 to 1 - #8 SG: A-G | outside Bubba, probably best record in past 10 years at TPC River Highlands | first action since hiatus so should be rested
  • Keegan 100 to 1 - solid record at TPC River Highlands | more or less a home course for him
  • Chez 125 to 1 - back to backs don't often happen but he won last year by 4 shots which impresses me, doubt he was on anyone's radar then | MC at Colonial, made the weekend in SC so quasi rested | accurate driver of the golf ball which is important with 4 inch primary rough
  • Niemann 55 to 1 - #16 SG: A-G and put on a clinic last week at Harbour Town with his irons | let's ride the hot hand... speaking of
  • Ancer 35 to 1 - if it weren't for Webb's torrid stretch on the back 9, Abe gets his first PGA tour win | #11 SG: A-G
  • Bubba 28 to 1 - 3 wins since 2010 at TPC River Highlands | in decent form after the reset with a t7 at Colonial
  • Cantlay 25 to 1 - #4 SG: A-G | t15 past two years at TPC River Highlands | shot a ~60 here in 2011 | well rested although some rumors say his back is hurting?
  • Brooks 20 to 1 - four "fascinating" rounds in SC, I think the momentum rolls into this week
May add a couple more. Good luck everyone!
Click to expand...
Great stuff.

Thanks for posting

Collin, Chez, Ancer, BBubba and Niemann definitely all picks I have pondered.
 
Looking at Bryson -109 over Rory, Brooks +105 over Webb, and Dahmen -120 over Glover so far. Full tournament picks.
 
I’m taking a shot at Hovland 50-1. He was at 60 but has dropped on both my books. Got the worst number but oh well. He’s the next to pop like Niemann and Collin have. Rather be early.
 
DaddyMcIlhon said:
I’m taking a shot at Hovland 50-1. He was at 60 but has dropped on both my books. Got the worst number but oh well. He’s the next to pop like Niemann and Collin have. Rather be early.
Click to expand...
I was debating this one as well.

That's my guy, right @bull (Hovland)
 
DaddyMcIlhon said:
I’m taking a shot at Hovland 50-1. He was at 60 but has dropped on both my books. Got the worst number but oh well. He’s the next to pop like Niemann and Collin have. Rather be early.
Click to expand...
Nice one - I did the same at 50 earlier this AM. Hovland now down to 30 on my book
 
Super quick list I created, I listed 6 categories. SG AppTG, Birdie or Better%, SG OffTT, SG ArTG, Bogey Avoidance, and Par 4 efficiency (btw 400-450yds, as 8 of the 18 holes fall into that category, and 2 of the remaining 10 are close to fitting).

1st column if golfer, 3rd/4th is price on DK/where they fall on the price list, and the 5th column are where they fall in the 6 categories mentioned above (respectively). the 2nd column is just a quick eye help/test, I gave a point if in top 10 anywhere, .5 between 11-15, and .25 between 16-20. The ~ is just outside the top 20.

Hopefully that ramble makes sense, but this is where I'll begin to look when creating DFS lineups, and/or find value in bets.
1593014814645.png
 
CPA-hole said:
Some guys are still teeing off for their practice rounds now. Hopefully that means no cancellation from the Commish at 2:00.
Click to expand...

That makes me more optimistic then. Maybe he’s just coming to stand firm that they will continue on and continue to monitor and adapt their protocols, etc. Just needs to provide the public that they continue to take it seriously.
 
Seeing more stuff on twitter now that caddies said they are still good to go and people don’t think they will be cancelling
 
Cam Champ apparently is the one that fucked up and worked out before getting his test result (which was positive). Possible suspension coming.
 
PHEW, we good. Nice job by the commish. They're testing the shit out of everyone, we had some positives and some WD's out of caution. Play on.
 
Maybe I’m crazy but I find the 1st round matchups to be the toughest to bet. Usually the juice is a little higher. I like seeing how they come out and then try to take advantage in round 2 or 3
 
Ryno14 said:
Maybe I’m crazy but I find the 1st round matchups to be the toughest to bet. Usually the juice is a little higher. I like seeing how they come out and then try to take advantage in round 2 or 3
Click to expand...

Did find 1 first round I’m going to play small - Morikawa -125 over Spieth (tie no bet) - think Spieth gonna struggle here - so you know he will go six straight birdies
 
Final card:

Hovland $20 to win $1000 (50-1)
DJ $100 to win $2800 (28-1)
Bubba $36 to win $1008 (28-1)

Also have 6 DK teams.. been breaking even or winning slightly the last few weeks. Much smaller card this week. I don’t feel like I have a feel for this one as much as the last two. I think while it’s not a bombers course the bombers are gonna take advantage of some of these short 4s and 5s. Could be a Bryson week also.. and not betting that at 12-1 so that’s another reason for going light.
 
DaddyMcIlhon said:
Final card:

Hovland $20 to win $1000 (50-1)
DJ $100 to win $2800 (28-1)
Bubba $36 to win $1008 (28-1)

Also have 6 DK teams.. been breaking even or winning slightly the last few weeks. Much smaller card this week. I don’t feel like I have a feel for this one as much as the last two. I think while it’s not a bombers course the bombers are gonna take advantage of some of these short 4s and 5s. Could be a Bryson week also.. and not betting that at 12-1 so that’s another reason for going light.
Click to expand...
Good luck
 
Feel for Chase pulling out after getting thru on a Monday Q. PGA should hook him up with an invite to another event.

Excited to see Bryson play a course that isnt tree lined.

Curious to see what Niemann does this week. Cant stand his swing but his game is up there with any of the young players.

Good luck everyone. I might start getting back in the game here soon.
 
OK I finally have to ask. What is SG ?

and while I’m at it, who is Collin ?
Thanks
 
bull said:
OK I finally have to ask. What is SG ?

and while I’m at it, who is Collin ?
Thanks
Click to expand...

SG is strokes gained, what follows next is the aspect of their game that they're "gaining" strokes verse the rest of the field. Here's an excerpt from the guy that originally created it

"Here is a brief explanation from Broadie himself: If a stroke starts on a tee where, according to historical data, the average score is four, and if it finishes at a position in the fairway where the average strokes to hole out is 2.8, then the tee shot has moved the ball 1.2 strokes closer to the hole with just one stroke. The single tee shot has gained 0.2 strokes compared to an average tee shot, so it has a “strokes gained” of 0.2. Strokes gained recognizes that sinking a 20-foot putt represents a better performance than sinking a three-foot putt, even though they both count as a single stroke on the scorecard. Strokes gained assigns a number to this intuition."
 
Well I spent too much time on it and ended up with more plays than I expected

Full Tournament (from the other day - Brooks/Koepka obviously cancelled)

Bryson over Rory -109
Dahmen over Glover -120

Almost pulled the trigger on Morikawa +100 over Ancer but too much of it was dependent on Ancer not rebounding mentally after last week

First Round

3 Ball
Bryson +130 over Rory and Phil
Fitzpatrick +105 over List and Burns

Matchups
Scottie over Vegas -139
Morikawa over Spieth -125
Poulter over Poston -114

GL tomorrow everyone
 
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