Torrey Pines and Dubai Desert Classic...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
This is true start of the season for me.

Hawaii is kind of like a warm-up. Last week is just easy in my opinion to get excited about plus the field is very average.

Now, we get two excellent fields and obviously the return of Tiger.

Top 60 in OWGR over in Dubai:

Bryson
Fleetwood
Lowry
Louis
Wiesberger
Fitzpatrick
Stenson
Willett
Wallace

Scheduled for Torrey include:

Rory
Rahm
Rose
Tiger
Woodland
X
Deki
Fowler
Reed
Finau
Mole
Morikawa
Sneds
Spieth
Champ
Phil


I am curious on Tigers approach this week. This is his traditional season opener and for many years he would start out with a win. Obviously he hasn't had the same success lately and a few of these were trial runs in comebacks. With that being said, I think he comes out focused. He has till the 3rd week of June to Qualify for the Olympics so he is gonna need a win or two most likely to feel comfortable in the rankings. What better place to get that started? He also had Zozo and Presidents Cup to keep him 'active' as far as tournament conditions.

Finau is another one that interests me. I, and I think most of the golf betting world faded him last week due to his ridiculous travel schedule and he was right there all week and ultimately lost his match by 1 but it went to the back 9 on Sunday. We'll see who he gets matched up with.

Anyways, great week ahead... lets find some winners!
 
If Tiger swings the driver like he did in Japan and Australia, he will be in it until the end at Torrey. I think he needs to take advantage of the North course, something I don't feel like he's done the last few years. He can play the South as well as anyone, but when they all shoot 66 on the North and he shoots even, it's been too much ground to make up. The South doesn't yield a whole bunch of low scores
 
This feels like a fade Jordan Spieth course too. Obviously his form has been doo doo for over a year, plus these courses place a premium of driving it in the fairway with length. The only matchup I see on my book is Spieth vs Leishman, no odds yet
 
gps_3 said:
If Tiger swings the driver like he did in Japan and Australia, he will be in it until the end at Torrey. I think he needs to take advantage of the North course, something I don't feel like he's done the last few years. He can play the South as well as anyone, but when they all shoot 66 on the North and he shoots even, it's been too much ground to make up. The South doesn't yield a whole bunch of low scores
Click to expand...
Great point about him on the revamped North.
 
gps_3 said:
This feels like a fade Jordan Spieth course too. Obviously his form has been doo doo for over a year, plus these courses place a premium of driving it in the fairway with length. The only matchup I see on my book is Spieth vs Leishman, no odds yet
Click to expand...
I concur here.
 
Rose Day Spieth-South Start

Phil Rickie X-South Start

Tiger Collin Rahm -North Start
 
Took Leish over Spieth at -130, for the reasons above. Other matchups:

Rose -105 over Xander - surprisingly poor record at Torrey. Concern with Rose travel from Singapore, but he's a beast here
Finau -105 vs Rickie - another hometown guy with a spotty record at Torrey. Finau's game suits this course perfectly and his results bear that out
 
gps_3 said:
Took Leish over Spieth at -130, for the reasons above. Other matchups:

Rose -105 over Xander - surprisingly poor record at Torrey. Concern with Rose travel from Singapore, but he's a beast here
Finau -105 vs Rickie - another hometown guy with a spotty record at Torrey. Finau's game suits this course perfectly and his results bear that out
Click to expand...
Fair enough on all 3...

Tony does fit this course I just am not a huge fan of that travel schedule is all. With that being said, he was just fine last week so I guess that is just over thinking it a bit,.

Good luck, excited for the tourney!
 
Just getting going on my stuff this week. Took a few weeks off from golf and time to get back at it.

Matchup that immediately jumped out at me is anyone with a pulse over Spieth. I've already laid the 1.5 with Leish to get the price to +money. Just a terrible track given his current (or lack there of) form. Only swing event he was even average was at a track where the driver was left in the bag. Torrey south these guys will need to be hitting driver damn near on every par 4/5 with punishing rough. I'll pay to see Spieth make about 30 30 footers this week to beat me but if he can't I think he misses this cut and the $ will be cashed by Friday night.

More thoughts to come....not sure of the main horse i'm going to ride yet
 
Thinking about taking a chance on Jason Day at + odds over Morikawa. I've already been burned once by CM, but it is his debut at this tournament. Day has gone T5, 1, MC, MC, 1, T2, T9, since 2013. Obviously his health is always a concern as he may get a bee sting and W/D or mail it in, but hard to ignore his course history. Morikawa is a phenom and has a game well suited here and I don't like lining up against him. Will keep thinking on it

Any thoughts in the desert? Was thinking about fading Westwood off the win, but wanted someone a little better than Thomas Pieters as a matchup. Westy has a strong history at the tournament, but surely coming off a win where he admittedly didn't practice much for will catch up to him.

And FYI, the euro tour website has been upgraded and it is fantastic. Search for the player and it instantly brings up their recent form and a tab for history at coming up events. Way better than the PGA Tour website. Getting to be a familiar refrain.
 
He went hard right after but seems to be in engaged in this tournament this week. With that being said, it's tough at that age to come back strong after a win IMO. Gonna check my matchups as well.
 
Awesome point about the European site vs PGA site @gps_3 . I was looking for some stuff on PGA yesterday and getting frustrated with it.
 
Taking a stab at some on Euro Tour

Fleetwood (-135) vs Louis - Louis in great form currently, but has only played here twice since 2010 and MC both times. Tommylad has been a little up and down here over the years, but I trust him more

Victor Perez (+170) and Bernd Wiesberger (+140) over Bryson. I think Bryson's bulking up has changed his swing and he hasn't figured it out yet. I'd guess he has extra responsibilities this week as defending champ too. Perez finished T2 last week, and Wiesberger has been one of the most consistent performers on the Euro tour for the last year +. The fact that Bryson isn't matched up with some of the bigger players tells me something too.
 
Tigers group tee times ensures he gets regular TV time both days. That's good thing with the WC portion of the schedule.
 
little silly maybe with the time off (Tiger) and one of my plays really makes no sense other than price but here's my darts

Tiger 12-1 (First time i've been back on him since the masters. From what I saw at the ZOZO and then backed up at the president's cup where he was clearly the best player on the course each time...i'll take my chances at his most successful track on the planet)
Cauley 80-1(Might be firing on him regularly until he's priced right....feels like his pedigree is finally showing through after recovering from injuries and the price hasn't caught up IMO)
Frankie 155-1 (yea i like wasting $ but....he's the type IMO that the switch can flip and he becomes a terminator again. At this #? Sure i'll bite)
 
PaintCrew said:
Yeah something looks off but you nailed my thinking with that number...when he misses the cut maybe I'll regret it but I couldn't pass it up.
Click to expand...

I'm also literally the only idiot I've seen throw some $ on him this week which also doesn't make me feel bad.
 
Thank goodness Leishman is off to a torrid start with Spieth 3 under on the front on the South.
 
Nice rounds from Perez and Fleetwood today to give me a chance at profit. Need a weekend meltdown from Bryson
 
Victor Perez with another solid round, leads Bryson by 1 going into R4. Fleetwood up comfortably on Louis. Rickie MC’d as did Rose and Xander, though Rose was one back. Felt like I capped those fades right, but Rose didn’t pull through for me. Pretty good shape going into weekend though
 
gps_3 said:
Victor Perez with another solid round, leads Bryson by 1 going into R4. Fleetwood up comfortably on Louis. Rickie MC’d as did Rose and Xander, though Rose was one back. Felt like I capped those fades right, but Rose didn’t pull through for me. Pretty good shape going into weekend though
Click to expand...
Good stuff
 
I've said it before but this year is going to be amazing for golf. Tiger, Rory, Rahm, JT, Brooks. Mix in some of the young guns like Morikawa and Hovland. Gonna be a great year.
 
CPA-hole said:
I've said it before but this year is going to be amazing for golf. Tiger, Rory, Rahm, JT, Brooks. Mix in some of the young guns like Morikawa and Hovland. Gonna be a great year.
Click to expand...
It sure is.

And so far, competitive tournaments. There were too many blowouts the last few years.

So much talent out there right now.
 
I almost bet Tiger anywhere he's crushed.
Didn't this week. Took Finau top 5.
TF putting is frustrating. Too tentative.
 
Must have been tough conditions in Dubai. Bryson shoots a +5 and I still lose because Perez shoots a birdie-free +7
 
I think we are gonna get. Good finish today.
Hope Rahm doesn’t run away with it.
Hasn’t he had a few great 4th Rds late last year and early this year where he just pulled away in the 4th?

He shot
66 4th Rd at Hero and finished 2nd
62 IrishOpen won
66 in Spain won
68 DP won

He Shot at 75 at The Open

That looks to be his highest scoring 4th Rd

Am I talking myself into a Rahm Rd 4 score Under?
 
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