Time to start looking at some stuff

[bloodhound]

Six toughest schedules in 2015, according to Phil Steele's great magazine.........

6) Auburn-- Since 2010, are 27-16 vs spread in game following a win.

5) Washington-- Coach Petersen returns home to Boise in season opener.

4) California-- Have 17 starters back; gunning for first bowl in four years.

3) Arkansas-- +7 in turnovers LY; were -28 the previous two years.

2) USC-- Only 4-13 vs spread in their last 17 road games.

1) Alabama-- Allowed 87 points in losing their last two bowls.

 

[TheGarfather]

Alabama has been mediocre for a number of years now once the calendar flips to November.

 

[bloodhound]

Alabama has been mediocre for a number of years now once the calendar flips to November.

yep, I agree

 

[bloodhound]

Six best teams last year in turnover margin...it can be tough to duplicate a big number:

+14-- Arizona State-- Play USC/UCLA back/back early in season.

+16--- Louisiana Tech-- Senior QB Driskel started 15 games at Florida.

+16-- Georgia-- Dawgs are breaking in a new quarterback this year.

+18-- TCU-- Horned Frogs have 10 starters back on offense, a senior QB

+19-- Michigan State-- 54-14 last five years; most underrated program in country?

+23-- Oregon-- 13-3 vs spread in last 16 games as a road favorite.

 

[Schrute]

Good info...thanks Blood

 

[gps_3]

Alabama has been mediocre for a number of years now once the calendar flips to November.

Probably not a coincidence that our November schedule is LSU, Miss St, D-II, Auburn every year

 

[bloodhound]

Six worst teams last year in turnover margin; did these teams have bad luck or was it player/coaching?
-15-- West Virginia-- They were 51-17 in six years before Dana Holgorsen became their coach- he is 28-23 in four years, 18-20 the last three years. .
-16-- Vanderbilt-- Franklin was somehow 24-15 at Vandy; they were 3-9 in their first year after he bolted for Penn State.
-16-- Michigan-- Has won one bowl game since 2007.
-17-- Washington State-- Coogs are 12-25 in first three years of the Leach era.
-18-- Eastern Michigan-- One non-losing season (6-6 in '11) in last decade.
-22-- Georgia State-- 3rd year in D-I; they're 1-22 the first two seasons.

 

[TheGarfather]

Probably not a coincidence that our November schedule is LSU, Miss St, D-II, Auburn every year

Followed by a bowl game against another elite team.

 

[B.A.R.]

Six worst teams last year in turnover margin; did these teams have bad luck or was it player/coaching?
-15-- West Virginia-- They were 51-17 in six years before Dana Holgorsen became their coach- he is 28-23 in four years, 18-20 the last three years. .
-16-- Vanderbilt-- Franklin was somehow 24-15 at Vandy; they were 3-9 in their first year after he bolted for Penn State.
-16-- Michigan-- Has won one bowl game since 2007.
-17-- Washington State-- Coogs are 12-25 in first three years of the Leach era.
-18-- Eastern Michigan-- One non-losing season (6-6 in '11) in last decade.
-22-- Georgia State-- 3rd year in D-I; they're 1-22 the first two seasons.

Methinks this will change to the good more than about 90% of nation.

-Better coaching all-around
-Gardner graduates
-Finally a good oline most likely.
-Defense will make plays and create moreso than last few years.

 

[cubsker]

i don't see the good oline coming yet. it's hard to be awful for years and then become good in one offseason. They're still at a numbers disadvantage compared to most college teams when running the ball b/c of the statues at qb. their defense was really pretty good for the most part the last few years so i don't think there's going to be some huge gain on that side of the ball. I still see talent deficiencies on their roster....it's all too familiar (fml).

 

[B.A.R.]

i don't see the good oline coming yet. it's hard to be awful for years and then become good in one offseason. They're still at a numbers disadvantage compared to most college teams when running the ball b/c of the statues at qb. their defense was really pretty good for the most part the last few years so i don't think there's going to be some huge gain on that side of the ball. I still see talent deficiencies on their roster....it's all too familiar (fml).

I get your first thought. That being said, they are finally almost 2 deep at the position(thanks RR) and the guys improved quite a bit last year. With proper coaching, technique etc I expect a solid line this year.

As far as the defense, agree, very solid last few years. They would just run out of gas late due to the offense but still were a top 15-20 defense last year. I just expect them to make more 'PLAYS' due to scheme etc...with a healthy Jabrill and an emerging Jourdan Lewis they will create some turnovers...shall see how front 7 shakes out but I like who they have coaching them.

No kool-aid here, I just expect a huge turnaround in differential category.

 

[B.A.R.]

i don't see the good oline coming yet. it's hard to be awful for years and then become good in one offseason. They're still at a numbers disadvantage compared to most college teams when running the ball b/c of the statues at qb. their defense was really pretty good for the most part the last few years so i don't think there's going to be some huge gain on that side of the ball. I still see talent deficiencies on their roster....it's all too familiar (fml).

Belongs in twinks recruiting thread but with EJ Price decommiting yesterday from UGA if he winds up here this may be one of the all-time hauls of our generation at OL...holy crap in 3 years or so...

 

[gps_3]

Followed by a bowl game against another elite team.

I wouldn't have called Oklahoma elite in 2013.

 

[cubsker]

I think it's clear that the top offensive minds (gus and urbs) with equal talent to bama have solved their defense to some degree.

 

[twinkie13]

I don't think there is anything to solve really.

 

[gps_3]

I don't think there is anything to solve really.

That's pretty much true. We've been really pretty poor in the back 7 the last two seasons. Moreso the secondary. Bad recruiting, bad evaluations, bad injury luck, and bad play have taken their toll. Plus Nick and Kirby's hard headedness on defensive subs have definitely led to some breakdowns that shouldn't have happened. But by and large, in the college game, it doesn't matter what scheme you run, on offense or defense. It's about having better players. We had better players than most everyone from 2008-2012. Even though there were some highly ranked recruiting classes from 2011-2013, they didn't pan out. Whether it was being overrated, overhyped, bad evals, or whatever, it caught up with us. I think the 2013-2015 classes are back to what we were used to. We'll see. We've got a lot of good pieces, but are still thin at some key spots. Defense should be stout this year, and not just against the run

 

[cubsker]

first rd secondary players picked each of the last 3 years. can't believe they've had it so rough.

 

[horses]

Methinks this will change to the good more than about 90% of nation.

-Better coaching all-around
-Gardner graduates
-Finally a good oline most likely.
-Defense will make plays and create moreso than last few years.

I don't disagree with any of these points; however, talent-wise, they are still only 4th out of 7 in their own division. I am amazed, at least going through 1st/2nd string, that Penn St has accrued more talent than Michigan the last couple of years. Penn St aside, Wolverines can barely even sniff their 2 chief rivals. Little Brother indeed. Thanks Mike Hart.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Urban is now 35-9 with >1 week of preparation including season openers.

30-9 entering last season. Then went 5-0 covering Navy, Cincy, Rutgers, Bama and Oregon.

 

[TahoeLegend]

How's it going, Blood. Some interesting stats there.

My opinion on your question about negative turnover margin is that it is the coach. Coaching is a major factor in handicapping. At least in my handicapping.

It can make you a lot of money if you follow it closely. I won week after week on Gus Malzahn when he was an assistant at Arkansas, at Tulsa, and Auburn. Then when he was HC at Ark State and Auburn. It was like taking free money when he got to Auburn. I never did understand why the books and the bettors weren't giving him any respect, but I was happy they didn't. And I like to bet against bad coaches as much as I like to bet with good ones.

One of the most reliable bets in football is betting against a first year coach in his first game and first road game. Even better when they are the same. Clicks along at right around 60% proposition both in college and NFL. Not that good ATS, but still a positive number.

Haven't done any handicapping so far this year except look at the opening lines.

I'm busy playing beach volleyball, so I'm relying on you to keep posting stats.

 

[Alan Tongue]

1) Alabama-- Allowed 87 points in losing their last two bowls.

Thise damn early draft grades

 

[Alan Tongue]

Interesting stuff though