Here is my look at the TCU/AirForce affair this thursday night. One of my largest power rating differences between my rating and the actual line.
The Match UP TCU at AIR FORCE
Last Year : Air Force 14 TCU 38
The short story of this game is that the falcons could do nothing on offense. Their option attack was held to just 98 yards rushing and 44 yards passing. They were held to a measly 2.23 yards per carry in that game and completed just 4 passes. In the falcons 11 pass attempts they were sacked 2 times. TCU rushed for 3.36 yards per carry for 141 yards and threw with success ( 23 -32 236 ). The horned frogs had a 21 - 12 first down advantage in a game that was basically total domination. This game marked the final of fisher deberry’s career.
Air Force offense vs. TCU defense
Air Force employs an option attack that is obviously very run based. They have a senior QB that is actually a pretty decent thrower by air force qb standards. They rushed for 229 yards a game last year, ranking them 3<SUP>rd</SUP> nationally. They are a run first , run second and run third offense however as they completed 10 passes or more in only 3 games last year. In week 1 the falcons faced D2 south carolina state and crushed them 34 - 3 , while rushing for 279 yards and passing for another 176. They used multiple formations that confused the scsu defenders in an impossible matchup for them. They held SCSU under 200 yards of total offense and just 3 points. A good tuneup for them but close to meaningless. In week 2 the falcons traveled to Utah to play the Utes. The falcons deservedly won this game 20 -12 ( +1 t.o.) after stopping Utah from scoring late with a couple opportunities from the air force 1 yard line. Despite showing balance against a D2 squad in week 1 , air force reverted to their normal ways of run run and run vs. Utah. They did it with success. They ran 63 times for 334 yards vs. the Utah defense. They threw the ball just 14 times , completing 8 for 56 yards and being sacked once. The rushing numbers are impressive though the jury is still out on Utah run defense as they were also pounded by Oregon state rush attack that did nothing the following week at Cincinnati. As you can see, for AF to have success offensively they have to be able to run.
TCU has played two games to date vs. Baylor and at Texas. They defeated Baylor 27-0 aided by several second half interceptions and stifling run defense. They held Baylor to 51 yards on 25 carries ( 2.04 avg ) and forced Baylor into working “from behind the chains” on second and third down. Baylor did have some success throwing the ball as they threw for 231 yards on 26 of 55 throwing. The inability to run coupled with trailing turned the TCU defenders into ball hawks and they intercepted 4 passes. The pass rush for TCU was not as strong in this game as they only recorded 1 sack but some of this is due to the absence of stud DL Blake who missed the game due to illness or personal reasons or because he was trying to avoid an ncaa drug test. The following week vs. Texas , the horned frogs were equally impressive against the run vs. a top notch offensive squad of the longhorns. The longhorns rushed for 176 yards on 36 carries for a 4.9 average per rush but these stats are VERY deceiving. Over the first three quarters of this game Texas had just 58 yards on 20 carries for just 2.9 a carry. Texas made three big runs ( one of which a colt McCoy scramble) in the fourth quarter on a worn out and demoralized unit to skew the stats. I still contend that you cannot run on TCU. I stand by this until I see a team do it. Last year they gave up 2.2 yards a carry and over 100 yards just 3 times. The most they gave up all of last year was 131 at Utah.
To me this just looks like a horrible matchup for the air force offense. Asking them to control this game with their rush attack is unreasonable. They are going to have to throw the ball to have any success and they just havent shown the ability to do that the last few years ( 118<SUP>th</SUP> nation in passing last year ) vs. D1 opponents. TCU never seems to give up early scores and forces teams to play from behind and in that scenario it is hard to like Air Force. In my mind , the TCU defense has played two consecutive games vs. superior athletes and offenses than what they face this week at air force. It will be VERY difficult for the falcons to score here. Hell, they only managed 20 last week when they had great success running the ball. Where Air force might have an advantage over other schools in a short week trying to prepare for the option , this TCU defense has seen it each of the previous two years and returns almost everyone from those defenses this year. They should know how to defend it. I see Air force scoring between 10 and 14 points in this one
TCU offense vs. Air Force defense
TCU has struggled to produce points so far this season in their opening games vs. Baylor and at Texas. In the Baylor game TCU was fairly effective in picking up yards on the bears. They rushed for 181 yards on 45 carries for a 4.02 yard per rush average. They also threw the ball with some effectiveness as Dalton was 18 - 30 for 205 yards. They struggled however to convert anything on third down going just 3 of 15. All three of their TD drives started in Baylor territory and while they did have 4 drives of 40 yards or more , their best drive was a 77 yard drive that they fumbled away at the Baylor 3 yard line. They had four drives halt without points on the Baylor side of the fifty. TCU was then off to play a little known team from Texas in the longhorns. Texas has one of the biggest home field edges in cfb but TCU had put a lot of eggs into the basket of beating them. They started out decently taking a 10 point lead into halftime before melting down in the second half. The defense played well but this offense was dominated by the Texas defense. TCU rushed the ball 32 times for just 43 yards (ouch) for an average of 1.34 yards per carry. They did throw the ball half decently as Dalton again went 23 - 37 for 208 yards and an interception. He was sacked 3 times. TCU only managed 17 third quarter yards which inevitably gave Texas the win and tired out their defense heading into the fourth quarter. TCU played without RB Brown who is probably their best offensive player and at time of this writing he is doubtful to play vs. air force, though he has not been ruled out yet. In defense of TCU’s offensive line, some would argue that Texas boasts one of the top 3 DL in all of college ball.
Air Force gave up just 160 yards of total offense to SCSU in their opening game and surrendered just 14 first downs. It was an impressive effort but SCSU , while not a horrid D2 team, is the third best team in the MEAC for heavens sake. Lets look at the more relevant game at Utah last week. Air Force dominated the Utah offense until very late in the game when they gave up two late drives, the last of which sputtered out near the falcons goal line. Utah managed just 15 first downs . The utes only rushed for 73 yards on 33 carries for a 2.2 yards per rush average. Air Force was vulnerable through the air however as “green” qb Grady was 20-39 for 240 yards and 2 Interceptions. This was a very good defensive performance for a falcons team on the road but it has to be taken with a grain of salt. Every Utah skill guy from the first team in the spring seemed to be out for this game. The utes had to start Grady at qb due to Brian Johnson injury , lost their number one rb Asiata against Oregon state due to injury , and also were without their playmaking wideout Casteel in this one. It is not hard to understand why Utah would start this game very slowly offensively and then improve late. It is exactly what you would expect and it is exactly what happened.
This is another case where the horned frogs strength is matched up against the air force weakness. Air Force gave up over 213 yards passing a game last year and 240 in their only game vs. a d1 school this year. TCU has thrown for over 200 vs. two better defenses on paper in Baylor and Texas. The horned Frogs should have some success throwing when they need to in this one. Also , I believe it is more likely that we see the rush offense TCU had vs. Baylor as opposed to the one we saw vs. Texas. I mean , that the Baylor front seven more resembles the falcons than that of the longhorns. TCU has been a victim of not converting on third down so far this season. They have had manageable situations but have lacked some execution. This should improve each game as Dalton improves. I see the TCU offense scoring between 24 and 28 points in this one.
How I See The Game and What I Bet
The spot - This is not a good spot for TCU. They are coming off a devastating loss to the longhorns in a game that they had been looking forward to all summer and now have a short week to travel to air force to play a team that they bitch slapped last year. Smells of letdown. Air Force also runs an option attack which for some teams is difficult to prepare for. The game is also a night game on Thursday, where home dogs bite hard. Air force is coming off a big road win and Calhoun has them believing. They simply match up horridly with TCU, so if Air force were to cover here it truly shows the power of “spot plays”.
Air Force has consistently shown that they prefer to run the ball. You cannot run on TCU. I pounded this thought in everyones head last year when TCU was set to play northern Illinois in the bowl game. All northern Illinois can do is run and you cant run on TCU. TCU held garret wolfe and company to negative yards rushing and put on one of the biggest ass whoopings of the bowl season. Now, TCU will not hold the option attack of air force to negative yards … in fact at home I expect air force to clear 150 yards which would be more than TCU allowed in any game last year. Again, they allowed 176 to Texas last week but we covered how deceiving those numbers were. Lets say that Air Force were to throw effectively for them and get 100 yards passing …. That will equate to 250 yards of offense … and it assumes they improve dramatically in both areas vs. last years numbers against the horned frogs. So I expect the falcons to run the ball a lot until they are down two scores or more. The problem is that this ensures that they will be behind two scores in the game. TCU on the other hand has shown an ability to pass the ball somewhat which has been a weakness defensively for air force for years. I watched in person last year as rocky hinds and company of unlv threw it all over the field to open receivers. TCU should also manage a good 3.5 to 4.5 yards per carry in this one , making life that much easier for Dalton who is gaining valuable experience with each game. If RB Brown is healthy enough to play, this game gains even more in value. TCU led Texas 10-0 at halftime ….. Imagine if they had held on to win that game …. What would this line be ???? 14 -17 ?? And as bad as the spot is mentally …… imagine how small and slow the falcon players will look to TCU fresh off a game with a program that is consistently garnering top HS recruits. Also , while prepping for the option attack of air force on a short week would be something I would focus on in most cases as a major factor , it applies less here. TCU played these guys last year and most of that defense has returned for this years game. I think TCU wins this one by double digits going away as the ONLY thing one can point to for the other side is a letdown , short week spot.
TCU -8 my first 1.05 unit play of the season.:cheers:
