time to post my week one card so far

woof

Wisconson WKU - Offensively there were two stories. 1. Hornibrook couldn't hit uncovered players. WIDE WIDE WIDE open players were missed on several occasions in the first half. WIDE open. He rarely even gives his player an opportunity to make a play. 2. But the real story was that Wisconsin couldn't move WKU on the ground throughout the game and they didn't really do a wonderful job of protecting Hornibrook either. Western Kentucky bowed up against them and played tough. Defensively Wisconsin could muster no pass rush at all. Plenty of open receivers for WKU. They actually moved the ball on wisconsin in the second half but just turned it over in the red zone, interception, fumble, downs. For me this was poorly capped at the line of scrimmage where I thought Wisconsin would have a big advantage that just never materialized. While not a real fear that they would be stopped on the ground, I did fear that if they struggled the wide receiver injuries would make it tough on them. And it might have in the sense that I think Wisconsin was conservative with their play calls but the plays they did pass, there sure were a lot of open guys but the QB couldn't hit them. WKU will score on some teams this year. Wisconsin oline looks down and the Defensive line looks WAY down.

Just so shocked at their offensive and defensive line play. Cannot emphasize that enough.
 
Yeah Top 3 underrated storyline for me entering the year is how down WISC defense was going to be. You can't suffer that many losses on the DL and secondary and not feel it. Good pass team is going to put a lot of points on them for sure.
 
Adds

FAU/Oklahoma under 73
Texas -13.5
Ole Miss/Texas Tech under 67.5
Bowling Green/Oregon Under 72.5
UNC/Cal Under 60
 
Thanks based on last year's tempo, I was coming up with about the same estimate there. Agree too that tempo will be dependent on game situation. Still undecided on whether or not to play over.

154 plays I think.
 
Adds

FAU/Oklahoma under 73
Texas -13.5
Ole Miss/Texas Tech under 67.5
Bowling Green/Oregon Under 72.5
UNC/Cal Under 60

Completely agree with you in the under in the heels game, as the only reason I don’t have it on my card is the conflict of interest since I already have a play on the side and I don’t want to have to worry about the points aspect.

With Elliott more of a game manager, I expect Fedora to put him in a position where he isn’t asked to do anything to crazy, so more use of the backs than most expect in my opinion.

Also think the defense is one of the best Fedora has had, which may not be saying much but does count for something.

Best of luck today!
 
Mr retro. I would appreciate a few words explaining your selections of MTSU and OD if you don’t mind.

And thank you for putting me on Colorado. Otherwise, it was a no play for me
 
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Thanks Frank. Good luck with your season this year.

Bull - I am mainly of the mind that ODU has a lot returning this year while Liberty takes a step up in class. They have a decent offensive line and I think they can gash Liberty. Charleston southern 229, Baylor 254 (and by season end the liberty win over baylor wasn't that shocking), jax st 140, kennesaw 498 (probably doesn't apply here given kennesaw system but telling still), monmouth 364, gardner webb 277, duquesne 295, presbyterian ... have to think with basically the whole odu line back that they will have a ton of success against the liberty defense in that respect and if Williams has developed at all then the passing game. But in following my basic questions .. .what does team A like to do? Can team B stop it? ... I think ODU matches up better than Liberty. ODU likes to run it and Liberty can't stop the run and as the game wears on with liberty tossing it all around the yard, that defense should be pretty tired second half. Meanwhile, I think the ODU front can get some pressure on the Liberty QB and possible force turnovers or big negative plays. I certainly don't think ODU shuts Liberty down (I have the over) but I think they can do enough.
 
That will do it for this year. After grading Monday, I will close up. Sorry to anyone who tailed
 
VK - You are a great asset to the board, who always provides terrific insight and are always willing to discuss with others of us not so well informed. Hope you stick around and enjoy the season. I know you may not be working this to your satisfaction (i.e. chasing numbers and outs which we have discussed in the past) but would hope you can find some balance to continue enjoying the handicapping which I know you greatly enjoy.
 
I do understand his point though especially for some like VK who grew up in a better time of CFB, the product from CFB to NFL has become progressively worse and I have seen vk make this exact post the last few years and it seems to come earlier and earlier unfortunately.
 
I must have picked your right ones. They offset my losers and came out 2u up.
Is it bcuz I thought SMU was a good play? Man walked in to a buzz saw n Denton

It’s still better than what the rest of the world calls football.
 
Mr retro, do not get discouraged about your capping. I understand your being disillusioned about how the game is being played. I share that to a degree. But you do enjoy many of the aspects of betting. In week one you played a shitload of games you normally don’t play. Your usual threads have almost as many ‘ talk me out ofs’ As actual plays. I recall trying unsuccessfully to get you to play more games because your talk me out ofs were very logical. In week one you departed from your usual modus operandi. I urge you to go back to doing what you do best, which is capping and picking winners. All of us respect your superior knowledge, and we appreciate what you contribute to this forum. Like you, I deviated from my usual in week one and paid the price. I’m hanging in there in week two . Please, Do the same.
 
As you know, this pursuit, besides being stressful and exciting, can also be lonely as anything, particularly if you underperform. I know you love the intellectual challenge of handicapping and that you are MORE than smart enough to figure it out. A good night sleep always helps.
 
Very glad to see you making a post. Just remember, it is up to US to decide when to throw down the cash.
 
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