RetroVK
This claim is disputed
If BC ain't scoring here, they ain't scoring.
time to post my week one card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
If BC ain't scoring here, they ain't scoring.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
The concerning part to me was when they were up 22 - 0 and didn't throw at all. I mean, I get that the game was over at that point as NMSU was never going to get to 15 let alone 22 .... but why not get that QB some work? Shorten the game and get out healthy, I guess, with a good road win. But he didn't look good the times they did throw, so not throwing was telling to me and not in a good way for the Wyoming passing game going forward. It's all fun when you have the ball the whole game because the other team cannot get a first down but what are you gonna do when they can? I wasn't impressed with their offense at all. Their schedule isn't hard, as they can probably walk to 7 wins but they are going to have to get way better on offense against better defenses to win those tougher games. I was kind of eyeing them for the Washington State game but will probably pass after watching that performance. They catch Washington State perfectly though .. defense got in game reps but is completely rested and confident and Washington State replacing a lot and playing game one. I assume the CTE/Hilinski suicide hangover is over and I watched the spring game and they didn't look horrible ... but that team looks to be taking a big step backwards.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Yes on all accounts. Played it very safe and since they didn't have to risk anything they didn't. Unless they were intentionally keeping something vanella or under wraps to not show for their winnable home P5 game this week.
I am still considering WYO vs Wazzou although odds may get worse. I mean those announcers were sucking Cowboy dick all night "this is the best D in group of 5". It's NMSt with all new key skill pieces.
I do like how WY DL and OL looked even vs NMST. Like the attitude, speed, flying around.
Wazzou going to be a challenge, even with new skill guys of their own. I hope Bohl and Co have a little something saved up their sleeve. Still, New QB, get him some more work.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think they will want revenge and I think SDSU slightly down this year. With that said, Stanford got 180 yards or so out of Love last year and only managed 17 (Edit for accuracy) points on the Aztecs so you have to wonder how they cover if the Aztecs get to 17 or more. I don't think the Aztecs get more than 17, so I went with the under. Only Boise State held the aztecs to fewer yards per carry than did the Cardinal. So I think they match up well against the SDSU bread and butter and they lose a pretty good RB. If you are betting on SDSU, you are betting on their defense and Chapman. I like the former but not the later.
Two good coaches and two good styles of play. It should be a fun game to watch, if nothing else.
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RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Remaining Games with most probable play
Texas -13 at Maryland
Ole Miss v Texas Tech (no lean yet)
washington/Aub under 48
appst/pennst over 54
Cal -7 vs unc
smu 4.5 unt or over 71
bama -24.5 (can I get a 24?)
Bowling green/oregon under 74
FAU/Oklahoma under 69 (I am playing this under just waiting to see if it goes up first, which I think it might)
VT/FSU (minutia leans to VT and Over)
As I mentioned, I plan on having a play in every game. For the purposes of my thread I will count all plays as 1 unit and ten cent juice despite obviously having some plays being considerably larger than others. I don't have time to post the dollars and upkeep it otherwise. With that said, i will likely be in the Golden Nugget contest with one or two entries which should be easily identifiable as me. If you are interested in my favorite sides, and likely the ones I have the most money on, you can easily look those up on prior to game day. Suffice it to say Wisconsin was my favorite play and I will likely add more to it.
Texas -13 at Maryland
Ole Miss v Texas Tech (no lean yet)
washington/Aub under 48
appst/pennst over 54
Cal -7 vs unc
smu 4.5 unt or over 71
bama -24.5 (can I get a 24?)
Bowling green/oregon under 74
FAU/Oklahoma under 69 (I am playing this under just waiting to see if it goes up first, which I think it might)
VT/FSU (minutia leans to VT and Over)
As I mentioned, I plan on having a play in every game. For the purposes of my thread I will count all plays as 1 unit and ten cent juice despite obviously having some plays being considerably larger than others. I don't have time to post the dollars and upkeep it otherwise. With that said, i will likely be in the Golden Nugget contest with one or two entries which should be easily identifiable as me. If you are interested in my favorite sides, and likely the ones I have the most money on, you can easily look those up on prior to game day. Suffice it to say Wisconsin was my favorite play and I will likely add more to it.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well, I liked it more when I thought Ohio State wouldn't be fired up to play.
I feel pretty good about Oregon State as a plus EV team this year through 8 games. So if they get taken to the woodshed (totally possible) then I will likely get more value on them later. The addition by subtraction at head coach is huge.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
What to do with the rest
Texas -13 at Maryland - Lost a half point as it is 13.5 now. Getting close to the point where I wait until halftime on this one.
Ole Miss v Texas Tech - Still no lean. 45-38 either way or 31-24 either way wouldn't surprise me. Probably will wait until halftime here and find something then.
Appst/pennst over 54 - souring on the over which leaves me in a strange spot. Probably wait until halftime
Cal -7 vs unc - I like the Cal side. Gonna give it a shot at dropping below 7 before I get involved.
Bowling green/oregon under 74 - total dropped to around 72. My issue with how high this total is, is that it means BG hits 20. That seems problematic to me, which means I should be giving the fave a look too I suppose but I really don't have interest there. Almost assuredly going to be on under.
FAU/Oklahoma under 69 -I am playing this but will continue to wait as I see one opinion from almost everyone else on this game. I like my take on the game. Already moved up to 72.
VT/FSU - I really missed the boat not taking over when it was in the 50 area. I don't think they have played since 2012.
Texas -13 at Maryland - Lost a half point as it is 13.5 now. Getting close to the point where I wait until halftime on this one.
Ole Miss v Texas Tech - Still no lean. 45-38 either way or 31-24 either way wouldn't surprise me. Probably will wait until halftime here and find something then.
Appst/pennst over 54 - souring on the over which leaves me in a strange spot. Probably wait until halftime
Cal -7 vs unc - I like the Cal side. Gonna give it a shot at dropping below 7 before I get involved.
Bowling green/oregon under 74 - total dropped to around 72. My issue with how high this total is, is that it means BG hits 20. That seems problematic to me, which means I should be giving the fave a look too I suppose but I really don't have interest there. Almost assuredly going to be on under.
FAU/Oklahoma under 69 -I am playing this but will continue to wait as I see one opinion from almost everyone else on this game. I like my take on the game. Already moved up to 72.
VT/FSU - I really missed the boat not taking over when it was in the 50 area. I don't think they have played since 2012.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
I think people dont quite believe UCONN will play fast cause they have been so ugly for so long. Going over with you.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
i
They were quicker last year with some inconsistency between games. They had some games where the decisions on run vs pass were just comically bad. They have some offensive weapons. Defense is not very good and not very experienced but then again, the experience they had defensively sucked so maybe they will actually be better on that side of the ball. it looks like the ND transfer Boudreaux and Samuel jackson (No, not that Samuel Jackson) are both not playing so there are some concerns with the UCF oline that I didn't have at the time I made the investment.
They were quicker last year with some inconsistency between games. They had some games where the decisions on run vs pass were just comically bad. They have some offensive weapons. Defense is not very good and not very experienced but then again, the experience they had defensively sucked so maybe they will actually be better on that side of the ball. it looks like the ND transfer Boudreaux and Samuel jackson (No, not that Samuel Jackson) are both not playing so there are some concerns with the UCF oline that I didn't have at the time I made the investment.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
If bama wins 42-17 and I'm on 25.5, I'm going to be real pissed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya .. that is one of the things that makes taking a bad number tough.
I kind of like the over VT FSU ... but taking that after the move is just a tough pill to swallow when even if you win, there will be a moment in the game where it is over the original number but I would not be winning. It's tough enough without getting the worst of the number.
I am far more casual with this now because I work so hard at other things and simply don't have the time to get money everywhere it needs to be or drive from place to place shopping. I am at peace with it, so long as the reason I am not as good at getting numbers is because I am earning elsewhere rather than being lazy in life in general. It does make it hard in some respects as most of the people I know, all end up with better numbers than I do, which while happy for them, it means when on the same game there are going to be times they win and I don't, and some self-hate might creep in. But like I said, I am at peace so long as I am not being lazy.
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
Retro,
Any lean to either side? I was leaning over but the drop back down has got me second guessing.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
The VT/FSU over is my only bet so far. Waited too long for the best number, but caught 53x.
I didn't do much handicapping, just checked injuries to skill positions, so I'm betting strictly on the fact a game is not likely to go under 53x when Willie Taggert is coaching one team and that team has the offensive talent FSU has.
I didn't do much handicapping, just checked injuries to skill positions, so I'm betting strictly on the fact a game is not likely to go under 53x when Willie Taggert is coaching one team and that team has the offensive talent FSU has.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I have a hard time figuring out many ways uconn covers without it going over.
I have some tiny UCF which I guess I deemed too small to post at the time I made the bet.
I have a hard time winning money on ucf games to be honest .. i was against them several times last year and now I own their National Championship t-shirt.
519 yards on Uconn last year and they played bad. Gonna need quite the coaching regression for UCF to not succeed imo but that is also possible given they were awful before Frost.
Over is still where I prefer to have my most investment in that game.
I really like the nmsu minny game over and that is the bet I can really get behind and recommend strongly (hence bolding).
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think the biggest concern for over (outside of wrong way turnovers but you can say that about every game) would be the scenario where Uconn can move the ball but cannot finish. So they get to midfield or the ucf 35 and stall. And then UCF has to go the field on their scores.
Thanks IZ, same to you
Thanks IZ, same to you
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Total of two units on that under now.
Fuente is an offensive guy too, if left to his own devices.
Fuente is an offensive guy too, if left to his own devices.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Northwestern/Purdue - Pretty even game as expected. Purdue slightly better statistically if you eliminate turnovers, largely due to the really long run they had. But basically two pretty even teams. Feel ok about that bet in the sense Northwestern controlled the scoreboard through out. There really wasn't a point in the game where I felt the +3 was in jeopardy of losing in regulation. 9 penalties for 95 yards, coupled with the turnovers was too many self inflicted wounds to overcome for the Boilermakers. At the end of it all, game was a coin flip type game that I took the points in and I feel that part of how I capped it panned out well. 873 combined yards was probably 150-175 or so yards more than I expected so it wasn't perfectly capped by a long shot but even there it seemed the game settled in second half to more of the offense vs defense that I would expect. Almost perfect to see that game decided late by an overzealous official flagging Purdue for a personal foul. Two teams fight for 58 minutes and you throw that flag there. I dunno, kid was a little stupid too but gimme a break. From a moving forward perspective, I think my biggest takeaway was that Purdue might be a good over team this year. Brohm will be aggressive and he will have to be aggressive because Purdue defense has taken a clear step back if this game was an indicator.
Tulane/Wake Forest - 984 yards combined. Didn't really see that coming. 548-446 yardage advantage for Wake Forest. Wake missed a chip shot FG, was intercepted at key moment in the game when it appeared the QBs knee was already down, and lost the overall turnover battle by a 3-1 margin. The Wake defense was well prepared for the Tulane attack despite the large amount of yards given up. They disrupted the base sets as the Deacon defensive line dominated the front of Tulane in a big way. Tulane offense basically became Banks making plays after running for his life because no one was blocking a Wake Forest player. If Banks gets hurt (and if they don't start blocking people, how can he not?) they are in deep trouble unless they get some of that fixed. Wake Forest backup QB played well for the most part but made key bad decisions too. Game was highly entertaining from the parts that I watched (mostly second half i saw).
UCF/Uconn -1138 combined yards in the game with Uconn getting a respectable 486 yards. Uconn fumbled at the UCF 36, punted from the UCF 45, intercepted on first and ten from the UCF 25, stopped on downs at the UCF 27, stopped on downs on the UCF 14, and fumbled at the UCF 10. Suffice it to say that Uconn left a lot of pts out on the field. That said, the defending national champions did whatever they wanted on offense. Not sure Uconn is the fade material some might think they are at this point and I definitely think they will score some points this year with the offense they are running and current personnel. I only managed a push with my less than stellar number but those that got in at close won. This push was the only bet on Thursday that I didn't cash as a winner and I think the game was probably right there with NMSU/Minny as my best capped.
NMSU/Minnesota - 522 yards to 271. NMSU lost the battle in the trenches again. They threw it 58 times with Romero. Hard to take away too much from this game as NMSU schedule maker put them in an impossible position. NMSU oline was something I considered a strength for them heading into the year but they have looked really bad two weeks in a row. I will hold off on judging te gophers to favorably for the performance for now.
Tulane/Wake Forest - 984 yards combined. Didn't really see that coming. 548-446 yardage advantage for Wake Forest. Wake missed a chip shot FG, was intercepted at key moment in the game when it appeared the QBs knee was already down, and lost the overall turnover battle by a 3-1 margin. The Wake defense was well prepared for the Tulane attack despite the large amount of yards given up. They disrupted the base sets as the Deacon defensive line dominated the front of Tulane in a big way. Tulane offense basically became Banks making plays after running for his life because no one was blocking a Wake Forest player. If Banks gets hurt (and if they don't start blocking people, how can he not?) they are in deep trouble unless they get some of that fixed. Wake Forest backup QB played well for the most part but made key bad decisions too. Game was highly entertaining from the parts that I watched (mostly second half i saw).
UCF/Uconn -1138 combined yards in the game with Uconn getting a respectable 486 yards. Uconn fumbled at the UCF 36, punted from the UCF 45, intercepted on first and ten from the UCF 25, stopped on downs at the UCF 27, stopped on downs on the UCF 14, and fumbled at the UCF 10. Suffice it to say that Uconn left a lot of pts out on the field. That said, the defending national champions did whatever they wanted on offense. Not sure Uconn is the fade material some might think they are at this point and I definitely think they will score some points this year with the offense they are running and current personnel. I only managed a push with my less than stellar number but those that got in at close won. This push was the only bet on Thursday that I didn't cash as a winner and I think the game was probably right there with NMSU/Minny as my best capped.
NMSU/Minnesota - 522 yards to 271. NMSU lost the battle in the trenches again. They threw it 58 times with Romero. Hard to take away too much from this game as NMSU schedule maker put them in an impossible position. NMSU oline was something I considered a strength for them heading into the year but they have looked really bad two weeks in a row. I will hold off on judging te gophers to favorably for the performance for now.
Canes1
Pretty much a regular
Good start to the week! Will be in Dallas at the SMU/N TX and Canes games. I lean N TX and love the under Sunday night. Interested to see what personnel Miami runs the most on O. 2 true frosh lead the depth chart at TE. Canes loaded at WR. Wonder if they spread LSU out opening up more lanes for Homer. Certainly would help their OL which has to be the weakest unit for them and has been since the Shannon/Golden eras
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
As usual, you are correct. FSU 28-22 win in Blacksburg.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
The Wake freshman made that mistake but he was very impressive
Marsski
MAC Marvel
I just watched the Minnesota game...NMSU Qb Romero sure didn't get much help from his WRs, I was fairly impressed with many of his throws and toughness. Thought that Minnesota really dominated the line of scrimmage when they had the ball but how much of that was due to NMSt getting tired? Thought the walk on QB for Minny looked serviceable, some of his throws were a little off but WR came back for the ball well. Really liked the freshman WRs for Minny espcaily the tall one , #82? maybe
Not sure how Ohio State didn't get Antoine Winfield, he's a hell of an instinctual CB just like his Dad.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
After watching CSU defense, it is the only way I could play it but I actually think the total is about right. My side bet is highly influenced by CSU's first performance. Some of that just looked hard to fix in a week. And Buffs are down this year but it is just hard to imagine they can be anywhere close to as bad as Hawaii defensively and their pace should be considerably slower than Hawaii's as well. So no real opinion on that total.
Just hope to avoid the backdoor cover in this one and if Buffs get outplayed here, they could be a good fade in conference so we will learn something. Quite confident CSU is really down compared to the last few years.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I have my tiniest of wagers on SMU. Just think the game will be competitive and so I took the points. Last years game seems to indicate there is not much difference between the clubs.
As for Miami and LSU ... could be interesting ... might end up being one of those games where the team that trusts their QB the most has a tougher time. And it may be that the team which struggles more to run is the team that is forced into trusting their QB more. It depends on how Miami spreads them out in my opinion as to whether that can work. I don't think LSU is going to get out-athleted a lot so if it is spread it out and throw short crap, I don't think that is a way to move down the field on LSU ... if it is taking shots ... maybe. Think Miami has to establish that run game to find open spaces down field. That won't be easy either. LSU will have similar issues against the Miami defense. Game sort of feels like one that will be decided by some big plays/turnovers as compared to one team just outplaying the other. Nice advantage at head coach for Miami though, and an edge late fourth with the QB and the history Miami had last year late in games to have confidence. So from a coach-qb battery, you have to like that late in a close game. That said, I love Aranda. Game should be one of the best of the whole weekend and should be real football.
over under 1.5 targeting calls?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Agreed, though I only saw a half.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
:cheers3::cheers3:
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I was looking for their recent games and was shocked by how long it had been since they had played given the same conference. It wasn't like I knew that. I looked it up hehe. Should be a fun game.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Groomed by the best in high school, mature and tough, they deserved to win
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I am guessing about 150-155 area though it depends on score obviously. Meaning the closer the game the more WMich will stick to the run. I have Cuse winning by over a TD so i do think Wmich might have to play a little faster than their norm.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Thanks based on last year's tempo, I was coming up with about the same estimate there. Agree too that tempo will be dependent on game situation. Still undecided on whether or not to play over.
