time to post my week one card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
As always, feel free to agree or disagree or discuss anything but be respectful of others in my thread if you can. And please try to agree or disagree or discuss prior to the game starting. I am trying to have a play in every game. Games regardless of investment size and juice will be graded at 1.1 to win 1.0 to save me upkeep time. I will be entered in the Golden Nugget contest this year. If you want to see my favorite plays on a given week, that will be the best way for the sides.

Locked In:
Saturday
Wyo/NMSU under 45 WINNER 1-0
Hawaii/CSU under 57 Loser 1-1

Thursday
UCF/Conn over 73 PUSH
Tulane 7 WINNER 2-1
NW +3 WINNER 3-1
NMSU/Minnesota over 45.5 WINNER 4-1

Friday
Syracuse -6 WINNER 5-1
Syracuse/WMich over 64.5 WINNER 6-1
Army/Duke under 46.5 LOSER 6-2
Utah State +23 WINNER 7-2
Wisconsin -34 loser 7-3
Wisconsin/WKU over 51 loser 7-4
SDSU/Stanford Under 49.5 winner 8-4
Colorado -7 WInner 9-4

Saturday
Coastal Carolina +29.5 loser 9-5
FAU/Oklahoma under 73 loser 9-6
Texas -13.4 loser 9-7
Ole Miss/Texas Tech under 67.5 loser 9-8
Texas State/Rutgers over 47 loser 9-9
Kent State/Illinois over 55.5 loser 9-10
Illinois -16.5 loser 9-11
Oregon State +38 loser 9-12
Houston -24 loser 9-13
Umass/Boston College over 63 winner 10-13
Washington State/Wyoming Under 45 loser 10-14
West Virgina/Tennessee over 61.5 loser 10-15
Kentucky -17 loser 10-16
Washington/Auburn under 48.5 winner 11-16
Marshall/Miami Ohio under 51.5 loser 11-17
NIU/Iowa Under 49 Winner 12-17
UNLV +25.5 winner 13-17
Cal/Unc under 60 winner 14-17
Old Dominion -6 loser lol 14-18
Old Dominion/Liberty over 58 winner lol 15-18
Boise State -10 winner 16-18
Cincinnati +15 winner 17-18
Louisiana Tech -10 loser 17-19
Indiana -10.5 loser 17-20
Michigan -1 loser 17-21
Michigan/Notre Dame Under 48.5 winner 18-21
MTSU +4.5 loser 18-22
SMU +4.5 smallest bet alert loser 18-23
Alabama -24 winner 19-23
Bowling Green/Oregon under 72.5 whoops loser 19-24
Nebraska -23.5 PUSH/N/A
Arizona State -19.5 winner 20-24
BYU 11.5 winner 21-24
Navy -11 lose 21-25
Navy/Hawaii Over 62 winner 22-25

Sunday

Miami/LSU Under 48 loser 22-26

Monday
VT/FSU over 55 22-27
2h over 27 22-28
2h fsu -7 22-29

Leans

Oklahoma/FAU Under 72 (Will definitely be played. Feel like over might take more money so waiting)
Ole Miss Against Texas Tech (no current lean)
Texas against Maryland (lean to Texas -13.5 - May wait until halftime to get involved)
App State against Penn State (lean to the over 54)
North Carolina against California (Lean to California -7)
Bowling Green against Oregon (lean to under 72)
Virginia Tech against Florida State (lean to over 55)
 
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Oregon State +38 (originally posted elsewhere on this site so sorry for stale number)
Syracuse -6
Utah State 23
Old Dominion -6
ASU -19.5
 
So you played oregon st. prior to the ohio st coaching situation?

How do you feel about this bet now? I hate these psychological plays where you can make an equally strong case for the team showing up or not showing up.

Best of luck this season.
 
AliShaheed said:
So you played oregon st. prior to the ohio st coaching situation?

How do you feel about this bet now? I hate these psychological plays where you can make an equally strong case for the team showing up or not showing up.

Best of luck this season.
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I like it less but I am horrible at guessing such things. University is under a lot of attack. They could probably use the blow out. It's the type of game that can get away quickly if Oregon State has early struggles, regardless of the psychological aspects. It isn't like 56-6 isn't a possibility here.
 
Classy thread-starter. I have doubts tbh about Cuse as a whole but I really love watching their quarterback play.

BOL this season.
 
I may end up taking Ohio State the other way if it continues down much further. Not very married to Oregon State, though generally high on them as an ATS team this year.
 
RetroVK said:
I may end up taking Ohio State the other way if it continues down much further. Not very married to Oregon State, though generally high on them as an ATS team this year.
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I need to see how the coaching situation plays out.

IMO it's a big difference whether Urban is there or an interim coach.
 
RetroVK said:
I may end up taking Ohio State the other way if it continues down much further. Not very married to Oregon State, though generally high on them as an ATS team this year.
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If that gets below say 34 that means things are unsettled and a great middle opportunity. Just my opinion though. I love middles.
 
It's hard to believer Ohio State can be at peak efficiency with the head coach gone and players distracted wondering when he will be back.

Problem is, if you take the other side you bet into one of the most lopsided propositions in football. Year in, year out, coaches in their first game at a new school win ATS at about 48%. If the game is one the road it drops to about 44%, and if it is the first time the coach has ever been a head coach at any level it drops to just below 40%.

In this case I can't tell where the percentages fall because the interim coach at Ohio State has also never been a head coach. In fact, he is not really head coach at all from a team psychology standpoint. He's just an interim coach and the players and staff know it.

Makes the game more interesting, but I'll pass on this one.
 
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Quick take on the Wyoming/NMSU under

Wyoming/NMSU under - Weather should be nice in the normal sense of it but it will likely be pretty darn hot. Anyway, this is a basic play for me where both teams are losing QBs that are among the best, or in the case of Wyoming was the best, in their programs histories. In addition, while injuries slowed him down some the Aggies RB was one of the best skill position players the Aggies have ever had as well. Very solid. The Aggies are replacing their stud with Matt Romero who played for Palomar Community College last year. Doug Martin referenced his mobility as a contributing reason but I suspect Jeanty being terrible is also a contributing reason. Anyway, it is a huge step up in level of competition from playing Moorpark, Chaffey and Orange Coast to playing against the Cowboys defense. And we are talking about his first game, so even if he pans out to be near Rogers level down the line, I would be shocked if it was against this defense. Besides the RB and QB, the Aggies lost a WR to the NFL too ... and bring back the bulk of their offensive line, which is decent. Despite being a really good player, I think Rose is the most easily replaced with Huntley ..... which leads me to the obvious .... new QB, star receiver gone, offensive line back and the one skill guy you know you can count on is the RB ... it seems a recipe for NMSU to lean on the run game more than they normally do which should reduce their number of plays in the game (coupled with Wyoming pace) when compared to average. Wyomings defense was one of the better in the country at limiting explosive chunk plays last year as well and return most of the defense, I forget if the linebacker is suspended for this game as I type this. Anyway, If NMSU is passing a little less, and Wyoming is limiting explosive plays, I think NMSU is going to have to be awfully efficient on third down to put up major points. Wyoming is almost assuredly going to lean on the run game but their offensive line is all kinds of banged up. Velazquez isn't going to play and two of the other four are battling injuries. And they got a redshirt frosh replacing an NFL first rounder. NMSU brings back a lot on the defensive side of the ball and they played well defensively at home last year.

Looks like a grinder to me unless turnovers happen on the wrong parts of the field or get housed. I think the game is a coin flip which does make me lean pretty heavy to the dog in this one, though Wyomings defense is the best unit on the field and that can matter.

I will call for the home win .. 20-17.

My number of 45 isn't the greatest but it is what it is.
 
ADDS:

Syracuse/Wmich Over 64.5
Army/Duke under 46.5
Wisconsin -34
Wisconsin/WKU over 51
SDSU/Stanford Under 49.5
Marshall/Miami Oh Under 51.5
NIU/Iowa Under 49
UNLV 25.5
MTSU 4.5
Michigan -1
Nebraska -23.5 (I am an idiot)
BYU 11.5
Miami/LSU under 48
 
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Excellent write-up on the total for WYO-NM.

I really like a few of those unders you are on as well. Monday night just feels like a slob-knocker of sorts that ends 23-17 or so. Iowa/NIU as well...
 
Yeah, I worry about the big play potential with the athletes on the field in that LSU game and it has been bet up to the number I bet at.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
I like Duke a lot, but also like the UNDER. You may have talked me into the UNDER rather than the side. Both are trying to re-build offensive lines. I see both defenses > both offenses.
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I like Duke a lot too. They are fairly consistent with shutting down the option. Hell, to brag a little ... I picked up on what Coach Cut was doing to disrupt the option years ago and have made decent money backing Duke against the option and backing unders or team total unders in their option games. They have a really good set of linebackers right now too. They are the best Duke team on paper for me since I started handicapping college football (I think). My problem with laying the points is that you are basically looking at Duke running the same offense with a lot of the same faces and Army running the same defense with a lot of the same faces as last year, and Duke managed just 253 yards against them. That is tough to look at when needing your team to win by two TD's .. particularly when we know that unlike other some other teams, Army will be playing just as hard down 27-7 in the 4th as when they are tied in the 4th (although not built for coming from behind obviously). And Army only had 268 yards in that game, with one of their better offensive units of recent years. I think there were roughly 120 plays in that games (off memory from when I capped it so sorry if I got this wrong but i know it was a low number) and I would expect similar to that in this game, though maybe slightly higher if the Army offense cannot get first downs. So despite thinking we see something like 27-10 Duke, it isn't a spread I want to lay with them, in the event they only reach 20-23 pts or something. My fear with the under is that Army struggles to get first downs, which leads to more plays because Duke has the ball and the Army defense being less efficient because they are on the field more. Teams that can control the ball and clock and rest their defense, can make that defense look better than it is if they had to defend the normal number of plays in a game.
 
RetroVK said:
I like Duke a lot too. They are fairly consistent with shutting down the option. Hell, to brag a little ... I picked up on what Coach Cut was doing to disrupt the option years ago and have made decent money backing Duke against the option and backing unders or team total unders in their option games. They have a really good set of linebackers right now too. They are the best Duke team on paper for me since I started handicapping college football (I think). My problem with laying the points is that you are basically looking at Duke running the same offense with a lot of the same faces and Army running the same defense with a lot of the same faces as last year, and Duke managed just 253 yards against them. That is tough to look at when needing your team to win by two TD's .. particularly when we know that unlike other some other teams, Army will be playing just as hard down 27-7 in the 4th as whnd defense ame offense aen they are tied in the 4th (although not built for coming from behind obviously). And Army only had 268 yards in that game, with one of their better offensive units of recent years. I think there were roughly 120 plays in that games (off memory from when I capped it so sorry if I got this wrong but i know it was a low number) and I would expect similar to that in this game, though maybe slightly higher if the Army offense cannot get first downs. So despite thinking we see something like 27-10 Duke, it isn't a spread I want to lay with them, in the event they only reach 20-23 pts or something. My fear with the under is that Army struggles to get first downs, which leads to more plays because Duke has the ball and the Army defense being less efficient because they are on the field more. Teams that can control the ball and clock and rest their defense, can make that defense look better than it is if they had to defend the normal number of plays in a game.
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I have look at the game at length and agree with everything you say. It should also be noted that one of Army's touchdowns ilast season's game came off of fluke punt return, so the offenses only scored 30 points combined. Moreover, in games that figure to be low-scoring like this one, it is usually betting suicide to lay DD points.

Army will be breaking in an almost entirely new offense for this game, and they will be facing a team that is very experienced defending the option, has terrific linebackers, and has the entire off-season to prepare for them. I imagine we may see some ball handling errors from Army as well. I really don't see Army scoring much more than about 10 points here. If that is so, then we would need 6 touchdowns out of Duke to push it over the total, and that seems far-fetched based on what you said - that this is basically the same offense facing the same defense that resulted in a meager 16 points last season.

This is one of those games where I fall in love with a play at one number, and then that number becomes a distant memory before I get a chance to lock it in. The Alabama OVER is another one. Capped it at 53, and now the number sits a touchdown higher. Nevertheless, in the very best of Duke scenarios, I only see them winning by 14-21 points. I just can't fathom Army getting boat-raced here, so while Duke may very well cover the number - and I still think they do - I'm guessing there will be a lot of anxious moments for Duke backers in this one. The path of least resistance here seems to be the UNDER.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. You have successfully changed my mind.

:shake:
 
I was hoping for a little more generous number on Utah St, but appears it got bet down to where it is now. I may just be excited for their season and eager to back them although I am not sure if this is the right spot to do it. How many pts you think MSU scores?
 
Some quick takeaways from tonights game:

NMSU/Wyoming - I will avoid the obvious and get to the less obvious... that was a really bad performance from the Wyoming offense. You can see that this team is going to struggle to score all year long. Their defense will be good, for sure ... but with NMSU doing absolutely nothing on offense, to only get 29 was shameful by the cowboys. NMSU defense played with a lot of heart. It looked like the aggie defenders were left in, instead of rested, despite having played hard and a quick turnaround. Woof .. physically beaten down, long flight and another bruiser team. Horrible spot for NMSU. I won't be in any rush to back Wyoming against Washington State after watching that game, though I won't be interested in fading Wyoming either.

Hawaii/CSU - Colorado QB sets an all time single game record for passing yards at Colorado State ... He threw for 537 yards, 5 TD and 1 Int, with another 25 yards rushing. The game had over 1200 yards .... no I am being serious . it had over 1200 yards. Words cannot describe how bad the football was in that game.
 
Hawaii looked like they had trouble running the ball, particularly on short yardage but the box score shows a decent running game. The Rams defense was so undisciplined that they had a few largish runs. Probably going to struggle against good secondaries. As for the Hawaii secondary, they gave up a school record in passing yards to Carta-Samuels. It also looked like their defensive line generally lost the battle to CSU in the run game but the boxscore says they were ok in that regard. Perhaps the most important thing of note was CSU played with a lot of pace, even before way behind. 140 plays in the game. Hawaii kept attacking when in the lead so I think that says alot about their identity. With the bad defenses and the respective paces, they could be decent over teams but I am not sure how good either offense really is because the defenses were just that bad.
 
ADD:

Colorado -7 -115
Houston -24
UCF/Conn over 73
Tulane 7
NW +3
Texas State/Rutgers over 47
Umass/BC over 63
 
Glad to see you on NW, and I’ll probably be looking for an out on my Colorado State pick as well.
 
New Mexico St D certainly gave it all they had. Not that it matters much, but their #1 sack and QBH guy Wilcots DNP (susp I think).

I was thinking at halftime, NMSt has like 1 first down and like 10 yards of offense or something and WY only up 15-0? I know WY is going to lean on that run game, but wonder what else they can (will need) to do out of the QB for tougher games.

Of note WY started 3 rFr OL last night.
 
Retro and s--k - Thanks for the comments on the Wyoming game. I didn't watch but did see a lot of UMass-Duquesne.
Total Mismatch UMass will be in a decidedly different ball game at B C next week. AS I predicted , best game was probably NC A &T / Jack state
 
UMass was just so much faster (words probably never typed before).

I think it was just a 1 game suspension, will have to confirm, but some of UMass' best players on D DNP. CB Rodgers, LB Addo and DE Flanagan were out.
 
M.O.T said:
Glad to see you on NW, and I’ll probably be looking for an out on my Colorado State pick as well.
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NW isn't my favorite play of the week (I am looking to make a play in every single game) but getting the better team with points is often a failing of mine. I have concern given NW has had a horseshoe in their rumps the last 12 months. Also concerned that neither team could move it last year on each other and I have more confidence in Brohm making adjustments than the other way around. But NW has been a pretty good road team the last bunch of years and Purdue defense overachieved last year as it was, and are sort of replacing quite a bit. Particularly young at CB I think, which hopefully Thorson can exploit
 
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