time to post my week 7 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
98-77-10 after six weeks
6-10 week 7
104 - 87 -10 after seven weeks

Locked In:

Ole Miss -9.5
UNC -14
Mich -5
wku -27.5
Tulsa 11
Ville 9
Bama -3.5
unlv -5

Houston/Tulane under 63.5
Arizona State /Utah under 56
SDSU/SJSU under 49
florida/lsu under 46
Buffalo/CMichigan under 54
boisest/utahst under 51
appst/ulm under 50

2h boise/utahst under 25.5

Strong Leans

Cin 7
Oregon 2
 
Last edited:
Nice get on U of M at 5 as I missed that one. Was also looking at Tulsa but may jump on the over in that one later in the week. Let me know if you have any thoughts on where you think the total might open on that one.
 
VI released -3 on UM, surprised at the move to -7. As shitty as MSU has looked and as good as UM has looked....think its a 3 point game.....feel like this is last weeks NW/UM
 
At what point do we tell CC he's not allowed to post if it's nothing but ridiculously bad numbers?

Makes me miss BOL. But I don't miss losing my biggest bets of the year with CLV of 10+ points.
 
carolinablue said:
Nice get on U of M at 5 as I missed that one. Was also looking at Tulsa but may jump on the over in that one later in the week. Let me know if you have any thoughts on where you think the total might open on that one.
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It will come out in the mid seventies .... of just short of double what the msu/mich game will be totaled at.

I read a post .. on ctg actually .. where someone said something to the effect, I am not going to overthink the msu at michigan game. One team looks great and has a dominant unit and the other team looks not so great but not bad anywhere, with a good qb. I actually believed the books were in a bind as far as releasing a fair number on that game. I was likely to be on Michigan at anything you would reasonably expect them to put out with a top five team on the road. This could be the game we expected with nw .... where mich doesn't score enough to cover a number. I have to take a shot since I think nw and msu are at similar level and it was men vs boys last week. I think msu will have to score at least 17 more than the last three teams michigan has faced combined in order to cover.
 
Marlo said:
VI released -3 on UM, surprised at the move to -7. As shitty as MSU has looked and as good as UM has looked....think its a 3 point game.....feel like this is last weeks NW/UM
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It could be last weeks nw/um game. Maybe msu is sandbagging ... I don't think so though. I may not be sure of three of the units on the field but I am positive the Wolverines have a really good defense. I won't be shocked in the least if MSU wins outright. At least then we will know they just weren't caring.

In any event, I think you want to take Michigan anything short of 6 for sure ... and you can probably take them now with a shot of the thing being 7 by kickoff.
 
Marlo said:
Western Kentucky names the score. Surprised this isn't on the other side of 40
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I made it 41 so I agree. Admit it is a very tough number to make. But the 27.5 was silly. Almost as silly as ball state was last week ... oh wait....
 
lindetrain said:
At what point do we tell CC he's not allowed to post if it's nothing but ridiculously bad numbers?

Makes me miss BOL. But I don't miss losing my biggest bets of the year with CLV of 10+ points.
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Ha. I found it tough to make numbers this week. The games are very odd from a handicapping standpoint but very interesting from a fan perspective.
 
lindetrain said:
At what point do we tell CC he's not allowed to post if it's nothing but ridiculously bad numbers?

Makes me miss BOL. But I don't miss losing my biggest bets of the year with CLV of 10+ points.
Click to expand...

I couldn't make the whole set of numbers but the originators should call me and I could tell them a few that are going to get destroyed.
 
clowncar said:
It will come out in the mid seventies .... of just short of double what the msu/mich game will be totaled at.

I read a post .. on ctg actually .. where someone said something to the effect, I am not going to overthink the msu at michigan game. One team looks great and has a dominant unit and the other team looks not so great but not bad anywhere, with a good qb. I actually believed the books were in a bind as far as releasing a fair number on that game. I was likely to be on Michigan at anything you would reasonably expect them to put out with a top five team on the road. This could be the game we expected with nw .... where mich doesn't score enough to cover a number. I have to take a shot since I think nw and msu are at similar level and it was men vs boys last week. I think msu will have to score at least 17 more than the last three teams michigan has faced combined in order to cover.
Click to expand...

:cheers3:
 
clowncar said:
I made it 41 so I agree. Admit it is a very tough number to make. But the 27.5 was silly. Almost as silly as ball state was last week ... oh wait....
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lol, yes I got bit on that too but at least a texas state debacle was avoided
 
Am I nuts for thinking BAMA/A&M over is one of the best bets of the season? Not sure what the line will be though, you have any idea?
 
I have work fellas and takeit. I will try to respond to any posts i missed when i get more free time. Missed open with work travel. Think you are looking at the vast majority of the card this week. I wasn't a huge fan of this card from a handicapping standpoint to begin with, don't think the numbers were all that bad this week as a general rule .. thought the totals were significantly tighter to what I project as well.
 
A couple of those totals I just added got steamed upward since earlier in the week. Usually not the best results when fading the totals steam.

Decided to give ULM a pass on their defense to date. At Georgia, At Alabama and At Tulsa is a tough set off offenses to have faced on the road. The lone home game vs FBS was Georgia Southern and that is hard to pound ulm too hard for as well I think App St. is a better match up for their run defense. Meanwhile, App st has been playing really good defense and running the ball. Game rates to be slow paced .. worth a shot.

I have wanted UNLV all week. it is not just a straight fade of Fresno State but their is some local buzz that unlv could backdoor a bowl game with an easy schedule down the stretch ( strong finish likely means bowl compared to fading to 6 wins ). To have any shot at that, they would have to win here.

I capped Buffalo and Cmichigan to about 760 yards of total offense. So I am forced into this under at these numbers. Teams are a little slower paced by stat than we might commonly perceive.

I leaned the Boise under at open. Just in an area where I felt ok with taking it. If Boise converts third down the same way as last year it will lose. but they won't.
 
What do you make of the movement to 14 in the Tulsa-ECU game?

The ECU-6 at SMU was obviously off and would be lined higher a 2nd time around, but using that as a guide here in Greenville this -14 line is saying SMU = Tulsa?

I personally liked Tulsa quite a bit and thought they'd have shot at the win. Tulsa can convert 3rd downs on O, run it decent and pass it well. Not that Tulsa D is better, but ECU doesn't typically stop 3rd downs or the run/pass too well. Where is there an edge on ECU here, or what are people seeing you think?
 
s--k said:
What do you make of the movement to 14 in the Tulsa-ECU game?

The ECU-6 at SMU was obviously off and would be lined higher a 2nd time around, but using that as a guide here in Greenville this -14 line is saying SMU = Tulsa?

I personally liked Tulsa quite a bit and thought they'd have shot at the win. Tulsa can convert 3rd downs on O, run it decent and pass it well. Not that Tulsa D is better, but ECU doesn't typically stop 3rd downs or the run/pass too well. Where is there an edge on ECU here, or what are people seeing you think?
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Game is fixed. we lost. move on.
 
I don't normally post second half plays but I am about to have my biggest 2h bet in years assuming what I expect them to release
 
Feel pretty good about Saturday. I am pretty much in the capping zone right now. Think I am seeing things very clearly right now. good luck tomorrow all.
 
clowncar said:
I also have a bunch at that same number, 24.5 too bones. gl to us.
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and i spent my week telling people that nothing is "free"......thanks. :shake:

By the way, I paid for that wager with about a month off my life.....but I had also prepaid many times before and will pay again in future
 
bones said:
and i spent my week telling people that nothing is "free"......thanks. :shake:

By the way, I paid for that wager with about a month off my life.....but I had also prepaid many times before and will pay again in future
Click to expand...

As it played out, it had way less value than I thought it did. Boise did not play that out the way 99% of college football teams would. Down an insurmountable amount, with the QB taking endless amounts of abuse, Harsin left him in and ran pace . ... throwing a lot. Onside kicking down 26 with 8 minutes to go Calling timeouts with 3 minutes to go down 26. That just is not the way most coaches would approach the end game in that situation. As such, the bet on the 2h didn't have near the value I thought because I didn't think Harsin was that stupid. He was really risking some injuries for no real benefit. Rypien and that offense don't need those game reps imo. So while the bet didn't have as much value as I thought, it should have. I honestly believe this was the best bet I made all year with the information at hand. Maybe the best bet I have made in a few years. I am getting better at patting myself on the back .. this was well deserved money in my mind... quite frankly the game should have gone under the total and it ended with 78 points.

Look at the flip side ... Tubs down two scores with four minutes to go punted to BYU. This is even more stupid.
 
Schrute said:
I do not understand the Buffalo/CMU total...I got 56.5 today
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Well the early move was paid service. I don't know what is going on otherwise. Pace seems to dictate an under. matchup too imo .. 36 first downs and roughly 600 yards of offense last year.,,, not that I weigh that a ton. Those folks taking cmich minus are expecting mid thirties minimum to be taking both ... just don't see it but there could be pace CHANGE information that I am not aware of.

I wouldn't say that I am overtly confident in the under ... just think it has enough value at these figures to hop in and invest.
 
Since I did a rare 2h post ... I may also do an even rarer TT tomorrow. It will be a disgusting dog against a good defense over their team total if I decide it is good enough to tell you about.
 
[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<thead>[TR="class: header"]
[TH][/TH]
[TH]
i
[/TH]
[TH]
i
[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]5-16[/TD]
[TD]5-16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]2-2[/TD]
[TD]2-3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]333[/TD]
[TD]334[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Passing[/TD]
[TD]299[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]25-50[/TD]
[TD]17-24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]5.5[/TD]
[TD]6.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]1.1[/TD]
[TD]4.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]3-30[/TD]
[TD]11-104[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Possession[/TD]
[TD]24:15[/TD]
[TD]35:45[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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