time to post my week 7 card so far

I post the above because I cracked a joke that the game might go over with just 600 yards to some buddies. As it turns out they got to 667 ... and scored 78. Good luck finding a more misleading score this year.
 
[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<thead>[TR="class: header"]
[TH]Matchup[/TH]
[TH]
i
[/TH]
[TH]
i
[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody>[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]8-16[/TD]
[TD]9-17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]0-1[/TD]
[TD]1-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]299[/TD]
[TD]410[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Passing[/TD]
[TD]111[/TD]
[TD]193[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]12-24[/TD]
[TD]19-31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]3.7[/TD]
[TD]6.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]188[/TD]
[TD]217[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[TD]5.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]2-16[/TD]
[TD]4-47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD]Possession[/TD]
[TD]32:08[/TD]
[TD]27:52[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Obviously the wrong side with unlv. not gonna beat myself up too bad .. I really wanted this play. A little upset that I didn't bet it early and took a worse number later but I liked it more and more as the week progressed and when it fell back downward from the highs I took a shot. Wrong side. It happens.
 
Happens, somehow Fresno was the easy side in hindsight...Never thought I would say that this decade.
 
B.A.R. said:
Happens, somehow Fresno was the easy side in hindsight...Never thought I would say that this decade.
Click to expand...

Just seemed to want it more as much as anything. Downgrade at qb for unlv was even greater than I thought it was too.
 
Rough day with some bad handicapping. I will get to each game to grade the loss in a second ... thought you might enjoy this in case you think you had a rough day with the bounces ..

I have to do this, not to complain .. but to show how uglyit can get sometimes when we do this.<o:p></o>
I had 7 full game unders this week. Here are some plays to ponder…..<o:p></o>
<o:p></o>
1. 44 yardpunt returned 38 yards to the 34 setting up a fg<o:p></o>
2. Fumble at own 11, setting up an 11 yard td drive<o:p></o>
3. Fumble at own 15, setting up a 15 yard td drive<o:p></o>
4. On third and nine from their own 44 a team threwan interception, and then the ball was fumbled back by the interceptor.Instead of punting, it led to a td.<o:p></o>
5. Team fumbled the ball on their own side of thefifty leading to a td drive<o:p></o>
6. Team fumbled on their own 21 leading to a tddrive<o:p></o>
7. Team had a hail mary intercepted and returnedfor a td<o:p></o>
8. Team had blocked punt to set up a short field TDdrive<o:p></o>
9. Team had a 73 yard punt return TD<o:p></o>
10. Team had a 100 yard kickoff return TD<o:p></o>
11. Team had a 49 yard punt return to set them up atthe 13 yard line where they got a FG<o:p></o>
12. Team threw an illegal forward pass on a kickoffreturn in the end zone for a safety<o:p></o>
13. Team fumbled a snap at their own 23 setting up amade FG<o:p></o>
14. Team had a partially blocked punt resulting in a17 yard punt setting up opponent at 37 for a short TD drive<o:p></o>
15. Interception at own 33 leading to a FG<o:p></o>
16. Interception at own 16 leading to a TD<o:p></o>
17. Team muffed apunt at their own 13 setting up a fourth down conversion TD<o:p></o>
18. Team had a Fake FG for TD<o:p></o>
19. Team had a Hail Mary TD to end first half (Ialso had one of these against a side bet making three hail mary td playsagainst my bets this week)<o:p></o>
20. Team had a 72 yard punt return for a TD<o:p></o>
21. Punt blocked for a safety<o:p></o>
22. First play of a drive from the 25 interceptedand returned to the 39 setting up a short field TD<o:p></o>
23. Muffed punt at their own 29 setting up a shortfield TD<o:p></o>
24. Team had a 17 yard interception for a TD<o:p></o>
25. Team had ball intercepted at their own 2 yardline leading to a TD<o:p></o>
<o:p></o>
<o:p></o>
<o:p></o>
But I made up for it….<o:p></o>
1. I had one team fumble in the red zone at the 16yard line.<o:p></o>


I had stopped on downs in my favor deep but also allowed three or more fourth down conversions to TD so it was a wash.
 
Let's grade the losses

Tulsa +11 ... Tulsa had a 22 18 fd edge, 463 to 382 yardage advantage. Unfortunately ECU had a 100 yard interception return for a TD and another 15 or so yard drive after stopping Tulsa on Downs following a long pass completion that was called back on offensive pass interference (though a good call imo). Normally I would grade this an A but I will give it an N/A because I am confident the result was decided before the game started.
 
could have completely changed game flow, if Tulsa is able to punch that TD in on their first drive.
 
Ole Miss -9.5 -- F minus. I was pretty confident in this play heading in while realizing it was a super bowl game for Memphis. I was wrong. Memphis had 6 more First Downs and 11 more yards and I don't even think that tells the full story. Was shocked by Memphis winning the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against an SEC team that beat Alabama.
 
Incidentally, any person who has a vote in the polls who would vote Alabama ahead of Memphis should have their vote revoked. Memphis is undefeated having beaten the team that beat Alabama. There is zero way you can have Bama ranked higher than Memphis unless the games themselves don't matter.
 
Marlo said:
could have completely changed game flow, if Tulsa is able to punch that TD in on their first drive.
Click to expand...

fist good call on mich st being a trap. I think they looked the better team but certainly they looked at least equal to Michigan. Though the linebacking losses were big I think.

As for Tulsa, I would like to think that any of a number of plays could have changed the outcome but that would only be under the erroneous thought process of thinking the game was one of chance at the early numbers.
 
I take it back .. MSU was the better team

Mich -5 ... I laid give pts with a team that managed 10 first downs, 230 yards, were outgained by over a hundred yards and who cannot field a punt snap. F MINUS. Almost luckboxed but of course not.
 
WKU -27.5 - B+ .... 250 more yards of offense but gave up a TD on last play of first half from midfield area ( I assume it was a hail mary though I wasn't watching ). Then gave up a length of the field TD drive while up 55-21 .... using timeouts along the way (lol) .. eventually scoring in the last thirty seconds or so to beat me by a half point. I would do it again.
 
Ville 9 FMinus -- I actually got a better performance from the Cards offense than I expected but the defense was keystone cops material the entire second half. The lack of effort was visible to the human eye. So I guess this was one of my lesser capped games of the week because I wouldn't have dreamed that the Seminoles would hit 500 yards of offense. Outgained ville by about 100 yards. Was a shame though .. Ville leading at halftime and scoring two TD's 2h while getting over a TD in the spread would usually equate to cashing a ticket .. but they couldn't and didn't even appear to want to tackle.
 
UNLV -5 Dminus - I won't go F here but it was badly handicapped, largely because I didn't think Fresno would play with that much heart and largely because I didn't downgrade unlv enough for the qb switch ... the head coach did .... he was entirely more conservative than he would otherwise be which tells you what he thinks of the difference between Decker and the other kid. Anyway, I was laying points and the opponent had roughly a hundred more yards and several more first downs. UNLV did have a two td lead in the second half against a team that should have quit .... so I won't go with the F but this was a bad play, at least at the numbers that I played it at. In my defense, I really, really liked this game and the more I looked the more I liked ... in addition, I can't even count the number of sharp guys who were on UNLV this week that I talk with, read or take note of ... I want to say it was a RAS play too .... so I wasn't the only one who looked at the available information and got this one wrong .. though most all of the people I talk to were at WAY better numbers than me and may not have wanted unlv at what I played it at .... so there is that ... that was bad work preparation by me to not be ready to take them ... I wanted decker ..then decided I didn't need him. Oh well.
 
clowncar said:
WKU -27.5 - B+ .... 250 more yards of offense but gave up a TD on last play of first half from midfield area ( I assume it was a hail mary though I wasn't watching ). Then gave up a length of the field TD drive while up 55-21 .... using timeouts along the way (lol) .. eventually scoring in the last thirty seconds or so to beat me by a half point. I would do it again.
Click to expand...

IIRC they busted a long run for like 75 yards or something.

I had WKU at -26 and -28. Was not happy I lost half of my bet there.
 
Florida/LSU under - This is so hard to grade. There was so much bullcrap in the game but there was also bad coverage, ill preparation by Florida, poor coaching .. and sort of big plays available. The stats support the play with just 33 first downs and just 759 total yards ..... not sure how to grade it .. gonna go Cminus .... because I just don't think I would bet it again having watched it, despite the stats.
 
phife said:
IIRC they busted a long run for like 75 yards or something.

I had WKU at -26 and -28. Was not happy I lost half of my bet there.
Click to expand...

I missed the game, thanks. Wku has a way of making me pay when I back them .. had them in the Bahamas last year.
 
I capped Buffalo and Cmichigan to about 760 yards of total offense. So I am forced into this under at these numbers. Teams are a little slower paced by stat than we might commonly perceive.
Click to expand...

Quoting myself from earlier in the thread ...

They actually only had 704 yards.... and just 38 combined first downs. Some unlucky breaks in there for under backers.... but maybe only a slight edge for the under as an investment .. I will go Bminus to cplus here. I mean ... I am forced to bet it at what I cap the yardage at and it went below that by a good bit. sigh.
 
Boise state Utah State under -- I should probably give this an Aplus but I will go with an A just because it went so far over the number ... but my lord. Words cannot describe the amount of bologna in that game. I won't get into it since most watched it and since I have fresh scar tissue. But I would bet this again tomorrow for more than I originally invested.
 
And now we get to the one under where I feel I was on the wrong bet ...

Appst ulm under -- I gave ULM defense a pass .. probably based on how I had them rated preseason ..... meaning had I had them as a bad defense preseason and they faced that schedule then I would still think they are a bad defense ... but I thought they were a decent defense preseason so I gave them a pass based on schedule. Game had 1004 yards and obviously a ton of big plays almost every app st possession. F Minus.
 
I did feel that my Alabama winner might have been fortunate but hard to tell if Bama would have done more offensively had they needed to. But plus four in turnovers with a few taken to the house makes that score line look bigger than it was on the field of play. Incidentally, that thing was an under game, not an over game. Had three or four non-offensive TD's to reach that number.
 
I feel 'ya, cc. Had a very rough day on totals yesterday myself. College totals just seem so...random, at times. The last vestiges of UL Monroe's pre-season defensive stats I was using was just enough to sucker me on the Under as well. I guess I should've paid more attention to GASO boat racing them earlier in the season. Red flag material. FLA-LSU -- every score a touchdown in the first half, sooo not useful. 17 2nd half points felt more right. Same thing happened to me in the PITT@GT game. 6 first half scores, all of them touchdowns. 17 2nd half points again still not enough to keep it Under. Anyway, those are just a couple, I'm tempted to compile my list of grievances as well, lol.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
I feel 'ya, cc. Had a very rough day on totals yesterday myself. College totals just seem so...random, at times. The last vestiges of UL Monroe's pre-season defensive stats I was using was just enough to sucker me on the Under as well. I guess I should've paid more attention to GASO boat racing them earlier in the season. Red flag material. FLA-LSU -- every score a touchdown in the first half, sooo not useful. 17 2nd half points felt more right. Same thing happened to me in the PITT@GT game. 6 first half scores, all of them touchdowns. 17 2nd half points again still not enough to keep it Under. Anyway, those are just a couple, I'm tempted to compile my list of grievances as well, lol.
Click to expand...

Ya I was just pointing out that I didn't get enough of the other side of it .. the flukey turnover at the scoring end instead of their own end ... which is odd because you would expect aggression at the scoring end and conservatism at your own end.
 
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