time to post my week 7 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9
week 3 14-10-1, 2.9, 5.8
week 4 12-6-1, 5.35, 11.15
week 5 13-5-1, 7.5, 18.65
week 6 8-14 -7.56, +11.09
Overall 81-63-4

These are the mornings it is tough to slink out of bed and look at the previous day. I watched a lot of football but don't feel like I learned much. It felt like anything could happen on any play no matter who was under center. Will go over last weeks losses in a moment... could take awhile ....

Locked In:

Rice pick
Texas Tech 4.5
TCU 10
Clemson -13
Michigan -1
Tulsa +15
byu 3.5
GT -5
Georgia -3
Bama -8.5
fsu/cuse over 51
wmu/ball st under 56
Toledo/isu under 61.5
sdsu/unm over 46
rice/army over 59
Tulsa/temple under 58.5
duke/GTECH under 58
Wash/Cal under 71.5
northwestern 2h -0.5
texas/ou 2h under 23
mich st 2h -9.5
michst/pur over 24 2h
Toledo/isu 2h under 28.5 lol
clem/ville und 22 2h
bama 2h under 24
gasouthern 2h under 30.5

13-13

Strong Leans:





TMO Leans:
 
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Actually ok with the total bet at nwestern. Wiscy just threw too many interceptions in the red zone
 
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EMU +21 --They were outgained and first dowmned enough to lose by this much. But the game was 6-10 at halftime making a cover seem highly likely. Backdoor was wide open but EMU turned it over three times in the 4th qtr including twice in Akron territory. Not sure how to grade myself on this but will go "C" for X's and O's and "F" for bad number ... late bettors won with emu. Minus 4 turnover margin. Outscored 7 in 4th to lose cover by 4.

Navy -4 -- Box score is slightly deceiving on this game with Midshipmen having a slight first down and yardage advantage. AFA was the better team. Despite having a fumble return TD called back on a horrible targeting call (where they ejected the defender no less ... this was worse than the ejection call on aggie against msu), another turnover called back on a questionable call and generally bad officiating for AFA the entire game, they won by a margin. Of note, Reynolds seem a shadow of his old self. Grade F for laying pts with the lesser team. Minus 2 turnover margin. (Aggregate minus 6 turnovers)

Toledo -- Same old story ... Minus 4 turnovers. Otherwise stats look fairly even. Grade C. ( aggregate -10 turnovers )

UNLV -- Of all the plays yesterday that should have angered me, the only one that really ticked me off was the 83 yd td run by sjsu on 3rd and a billion on a draw play. I was begging for a draw play because UNLV pass defense was so poor on third downs. Amazingly there was no safety deep for the rebels. Down 19-7 at the time and hadn't caught a break all game ... I liked where game sat at that moment. But I shouldn't have gotten angry because it was a horrible bet. Outgained by 320 yards or so and decker/sherry qb play was as bad as could be. Oh ya ... minus 1 turnover margin ( aggregate -11 ). Grade F

Houston 2h -2 -- Minus 2 turnovers in the half I believe ( not going through play by play ) getting picked early third to set up ucf fg and of course fumbling the ball at the 1 yard line on first and goal late on what would have been the covering score. Grade B. ( aggregate -13 ).

Tulsa +15 -- eh .. csu started strong .. Tulsa actually ended with more first downs and the yardage differential probably warranted a cover on its face but csu might have called off the dogs because of scoreboard. eh Cminus or D+. Minus 1 turnover margin ( aggregate -14 )

Washington State -3 and under -- Ah ... qb threw for over 700, they outgained Cal by over 200 yards and neither team committed a turnover. How could I lose, you ask? two kickoff returns for Td's is the answer. total was a joke on paper but turned out to be a horrible bet. A for wash st side and F for total ( though I cant blame myself there ). Was that a wash st td at the end? ( aggregate -14 )

Bama -4 0-- grade F. Keeping my back bama in a big game and they lose straight up streak alive. They were outplayed. Even after being gifted on a horrible no call on a facemask, they couldn't manage to keep a dd lead against bo fucking Wallace. minus 1 in turnovers ( aggregate -15 )

s Carolina -3 -- this is tough to grade ... I just can't understand why S Carolina refused to run the ball in the 4th qtr. Thompson was beyond bad all game long and they were doing anything and everything they wanted on the ground against uk. In addition, how many times can one team fall for the fake jet sweep, qb keep? Insane. Then allowed a fd to go to knees because they didn't sell out to stop the run at the line of scrimmage to boot. boxscore obviously says it was the right side but Thompson turnovers and overall bad play, coupled with horrific coaching led to the outright loss when up 14 in the 4th qtr. Amazing choke. Grade B+ ... can't give an A because I thought OBC was better than this. minus 2 turnovers aggregate -17

Mich st -- A........... plus 1 in turnovers. aggregate -16


Just cannot lose turnover margins by that much and have a chance and the 4th qtr backdoors to not only the spread but for the teams to lose outright after being up dd 2h was numbing.

teaser was a bad play .. though I should note I have asu season wins under and they won on a hail mary.
 
navy seems to be 'off' but can't identify the issue/michigan state...oh well but fuck/ I thought houston was a decent bet/unlv was worried about academics costing them a bowl...thats not going to be a worry/ just some random thoughts on some games I was on as well
 
Keep beasting vk, crazy past weekend. Especially that cal wsu game. How you throw for 730 yards and lose boggles my mind regardless of special teams.
 
ya good spot for tamu .. unfortunately opponent is better than they are. I wont be involved.
 
add

byu 3.5
GT -5

I actually am not sure how those two games are going to move but I don't have time to monitor lines this week and I like them. Was gonna wait but will just take.
 
Bama strictly a matchup play for me .. I hate the spot off the humiliating loss and travelling again to face a team off a bye week that is starting to feel good about itself. But Arkansas is completely reliant on the power run and I just don't think that is a way to make a living against the bama defense. Maybe Saban/Kiffin pull their heads out and use some of their weapons on the outside this week.
 
oh prep yourself now for the usc at zona game .. how many times are we going to have to watch the zona hail mary against cal and the asu hail mary against usc over the course of that broadcast?
 
clowncar said:
ya good spot for tamu .. unfortunately opponent is better than they are. I wont be involved.
Click to expand...

They may be better, but Ole Miss will likely be hung over until mid week after that win. Handling that kind of success is unchartered waters for that team. If they can turn around, travel and beat an embarrassed A&M team, hats off to them.
 
What are you seeing with BYU? They lost more than Hill in that game and who knows how they will travel on a short week across the country. I'm sure people will be lining up to play UCF but I'm sure you have your reasons here and I'd love to hear them.

Thanks.
 
They must see something I don't with Army. Don't get how they opened a fave offshore. In agreement on BYU, grabbed Clemson at single digits (they still haven't caught up to these guys), and lean Michigan as well although pissed I missed the +.
 
Two Utes said:
What are you seeing with BYU? They lost more than Hill in that game and who knows how they will travel on a short week across the country. I'm sure people will be lining up to play UCF but I'm sure you have your reasons here and I'd love to hear them.

Thanks.
Click to expand...


More a fade of UCF than anything else. When Hill went down it was an impossible spot for the backup having to come in without weekly reps and basically try to pass them to victory. I realize they are banged up outside of quarterback but I doubt the QB position can be much more than a wash for ucf after watching Holman play a few games. He was 6 of 18 against Houston the other night for about a hundred yards and 52 came on one play. Team was outgained by over a hundred yards ... that is an average Houston team that replaced their qb and whose receivers had more drops than a leaky faucet. UCF has now been thoroughly outplayed by every single fbs opponent they have faced, none of whom are elite and none of whom would likely be favored over byu on a neutral ( maybe Missouri now after their start? ) if Hill were in. Once I have the QB position as a wash I have to ask which team has the better overall ball club and that is not brain surgery.
, as well as figure out the matchup. Holman can't complete passes consistently and UCF has been running because of it. The thing is ... BYU has the tenth ranked rush defense in the nation right now. I don't think Holman can beat them. In addition, the common opponent factor is pretty telling imo. granted byu played Houston at home and granted it was with Hill ( who obviously matters ) but where ucf was outgained by a hundy from Houston, byu outgained Houston by two hundy. We know team A beats team C and team C beats team B therefore team A should beat team B is flawed logic in cfb but the manner in which the games played out is telling. I am believing my eyes on this one and I also like that the game falls between two conference games for UCF.
 
And I realize things change dramatically in the context of the injury situation with the cougs .. but ...

Houston -3 at home to ucf is basically saying that Houston and ucf are equal teams. byu -17 home to Houston is basically saying byu is two td better than Houston. Just seems like that is valuing Hill at the level of a Herschel Walker, Michael Vick, VY, or Jordan Palmer. I have no doubt he is as meaningful to his team as any player but I have to take that kind of value.
 
Frank Costanza said:
They may be better, but Ole Miss will likely be hung over until mid week after that win. Handling that kind of success is unchartered waters for that team. If they can turn around, travel and beat an embarrassed A&M team, hats off to them.
Click to expand...

I was ready to fire a max bet in on aTm (against Ole Miss really), but I'm having second thoughts. Ole Miss has a legit defense. They are better than aTm. But this is a near impossible situation for them from a situational standpoint. I'll likely still be on the Ags, but nowhere near a big bet. Shades of South Carolina 2010 when they beat #1 Alabama then followed up with a loss to Kentucky.

Good luck on Alabama Kyle, I know they've burned you recently. I agree with your sentiment. I think this game will tell us a lot about where Alabama is now and where they can go from here. I still think this is an elite team, but if they can't stop being so sloppy, they have another loss or three on the schedule
 
gps_3 said:
I was ready to fire a max bet in on aTm (against Ole Miss really), but I'm having second thoughts. Ole Miss has a legit defense. They are better than aTm. But this is a near impossible situation for them from a situational standpoint. I'll likely still be on the Ags, but nowhere near a big bet. Shades of South Carolina 2010 when they beat #1 Alabama then followed up with a loss to Kentucky.

Good luck on Alabama Kyle, I know they've burned you recently. I agree with your sentiment. I think this game will tell us a lot about where Alabama is now and where they can go from here. I still think this is an elite team, but if they can't stop being so sloppy, they have another loss or three on the schedule
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Thanks Gps .. it isn't like Bama doesn't cover .. I just seem to find the worst spots to back them. It's a hidden talent.

I am going to leave Ole Miss at TAMU alone. Horrible spot for Ole Miss but at the same time I really feel they are superior to TAMU. Not sure we are at that point yet but we all know how conference officiating changes once the clear benefit to the conference is determined. Not sure if that plays out anymore with the playoff ( maybe for a second team? ) but it has been a consistent way to win in the SEC the last bunch of years of backing the team that is best for the conference as a whole once the smoke has cleared a little. Not sure smoke has cleared much though .. and four team playoff means an SEC team no matter what
 
clowncar said:
More a fade of UCF than anything else. When Hill went down it was an impossible spot for the backup having to come in without weekly reps and basically try to pass them to victory. I realize they are banged up outside of quarterback but I doubt the QB position can be much more than a wash for ucf after watching Holman play a few games. He was 6 of 18 against Houston the other night for about a hundred yards and 52 came on one play. Team was outgained by over a hundred yards ... that is an average Houston team that replaced their qb and whose receivers had more drops than a leaky faucet. UCF has now been thoroughly outplayed by every single fbs opponent they have faced, none of whom are elite and none of whom would likely be favored over byu on a neutral ( maybe Missouri now after their start? ) if Hill were in. Once I have the QB position as a wash I have to ask which team has the better overall ball club and that is not brain surgery.
, as well as figure out the matchup. Holman can't complete passes consistently and UCF has been running because of it. The thing is ... BYU has the tenth ranked rush defense in the nation right now. I don't think Holman can beat them. In addition, the common opponent factor is pretty telling imo. granted byu played Houston at home and granted it was with Hill ( who obviously matters ) but where ucf was outgained by a hundy from Houston, byu outgained Houston by two hundy. We know team A beats team C and team C beats team B therefore team A should beat team B is flawed logic in cfb but the manner in which the games played out is telling. I am believing my eyes on this one and I also like that the game falls between two conference games for UCF.
Click to expand...

Thanks, good stuff. You make excellent points.
 
Yeah, I like the case you made for BYU as well. I simply don't understand the Rice line. I saw someone make a solid case for TCU on another site, and Clemson and Bama were the two games I played Sunday night. Also like Georgia, so your card really looks good this week. Hope they all come through for you.
 
Add the totals

fsu/cuse over 51
wmu/ball st under 56
Toledo/isu under 61.5
sdsu/unm over 46
rice/army over 59
Tulsa/temple under 58.5
duke/GTECH under 58
 
Wash/Cal under 71.5

I wanted to pass but it is so far off again ... I may have a bad read on Cal.
 
Taking a Cal under has to be bad for your health.. I know I couldn't do it... really like that SD State/New Mexico over... not sure where they came up with 46. Good luck!
 
This won't make you feel any better, but I thought of you when that Eastern Michigan score came in and I was getting 25 1/2. Seems that never happens in my favor. Anyway, I had the game as a no play until I saw the 25 1/2 and you liked it at 21.

On an aside, I can't recall any Saturday where so many games were decided so late.
I had a nice ML parlay explode on that ASU Hail Mary.

And all's well that ends well but Richmond were guilty of some terrible clock management.
In a tie game, they drive down to Liberty red zone and call Time Out with 11 seconds still on the clock. They kick the 'winning' FG, leaving 8 seconds on the clock. Liberty has time to complete one 20 yard pass and then tie the game with a 60 yd field goal. Lucky for me, the Spiders won it in double OT.

Wishing you better luck this week. :cheers4:
 
clowncar said:
Wash/Cal under 71.5

I wanted to pass but it is so far off again ... I may have a bad read on Cal.
Click to expand...
VK good luck this week. Curious on your thoughts on this one as I went the other way and played over. Cal is last (128th) in opponent plays per game at an amazing 99.2 but 2nd in offensive pts. per play at .635 and 2nd in ypa at 10.2. I don't see UW being able to stop them and conversely don't see Cal being able to stop UW but hopefully outscore them as I have Cal on the side play as well. I just see a track meet here and curious why you would like under.
 
Timh said:
VK good luck this week. Curious on your thoughts on this one as I went the other way and played over. Cal is last (128th) in opponent plays per game at an amazing 99.2 but 2nd in offensive pts. per play at .635 and 2nd in ypa at 10.2. I don't see UW being able to stop them and conversely don't see Cal being able to stop UW but hopefully outscore them as I have Cal on the side play as well. I just see a track meet here and curious why you would like under.
Click to expand...

I think a lot of it is just a product of who they played. I mean Colorado has run more plays than any team in the nation. Washington State the third most and Arizona 22nd most. When Cal played a slower team ( NW ) they didn't quite produce the same way. In that game 354 yards. Washington is the slowest team that Cal has played in terms of pace so far this year. Cal has been burned badly by the pass this year facing Arizona making the big comeback, Washington state who just torched them in what was a bad matchup and Colorado. All three opponents are in the top 18 in passing offense. Washington has been struggling to throw the ball. Fans there want Miles out and were actually booooooooing the offense in their loss to Stanford. I do think the game slows down for the huskies and miles with the cal defense. And I get that you could get an Eastern Washington type game with Cal tossing it around and then playing bad defense .. but I think Washington's defense creates the pace of the game.
 
bull said:
This won't make you feel any better, but I thought of you when that Eastern Michigan score came in and I was getting 25 1/2. Seems that never happens in my favor. Anyway, I had the game as a no play until I saw the 25 1/2 and you liked it at 21.

On an aside, I can't recall any Saturday where so many games were decided so late.
I had a nice ML parlay explode on that ASU Hail Mary.

And all's well that ends well but Richmond were guilty of some terrible clock management.
In a tie game, they drive down to Liberty red zone and call Time Out with 11 seconds still on the clock. They kick the 'winning' FG, leaving 8 seconds on the clock. Liberty has time to complete one 20 yard pass and then tie the game with a 60 yd field goal. Lucky for me, the Spiders won it in double OT.

Wishing you better luck this week. :cheers4:
Click to expand...


Glad you won with EMU ... Sad that I didn't wait .. though as I thought about it .. I might have taken at 24 or 24.5 even had I waited ... and the thing landed on the odd number of 25 ... so I might be being a bit harsh on myself in respects to it being a game I could have won had I waited.


Thanks for the well wishes .. gonna go out on a limb and say if I get my butt kicked this week it wont be because of a string of amazing events like last week and more just the regression to the mean type of thing.
 
On what planet should Army be a pick for Rice? I keep riding them every week and the books seem to undervalue them every week (at least last few)
 
Ya they should be -3 minimum ...

on the same game .... I am souring on the over bet there a little. Confident both can move the ball but not sure there are enough big plays available.
 
clowncar said:
I think a lot of it is just a product of who they played. I mean Colorado has run more plays than any team in the nation. Washington State the third most and Arizona 22nd most. When Cal played a slower team ( NW ) they didn't quite produce the same way. In that game 354 yards. Washington is the slowest team that Cal has played in terms of pace so far this year. Cal has been burned badly by the pass this year facing Arizona making the big comeback, Washington state who just torched them in what was a bad matchup and Colorado. All three opponents are in the top 18 in passing offense. Washington has been struggling to throw the ball. Fans there want Miles out and were actually booooooooing the offense in their loss to Stanford. I do think the game slows down for the huskies and miles with the cal defense. And I get that you could get an Eastern Washington type game with Cal tossing it around and then playing bad defense .. but I think Washington's defense creates the pace of the game.
Click to expand...
Thanks for your thoughts and you certainly make good points about the opposition that Cal has faced. I am counting on Cal coming out and getting a lead in this game and forcing Washington into more of an open game. Agree with you that if Wash can control the ball with their running game and dominate TOP the game likely will go under.
 
Iowa has fallen to tempting levels. Gonna lay off due to volatility of Indiana but not sure who has them with the same pr.
 
Rice pick
Texas Tech 4.5
TCU 10
Clemson -13
Michigan -1
Tulsa +15
byu 3.5
GT -5
Georgia -3
Bama -8.5
fsu/cuse over 51
wmu/ball st under 56
Toledo/isu under 61.5
sdsu/unm over 46
rice/army over 59
Tulsa/temple under 58.5
duke/GTECH under 58
Wash/Cal under 71.5
Click to expand...

well hell, we dont appear to have much in common this wk but I do wish U the BOL on them all...one of us will be winners...Rice Bama Clem and BYU for me and against u on a few
Have a Great week Kyle
:shake:
 
I am hoping Rice shows up ready to play this week - their defense has been very lackluster this season and I feel they are behind or trailing early in almost every game.

BOL!
 
Element1 said:
I am hoping Rice shows up ready to play this week - their defense has been very lackluster this season and I feel they are behind or trailing early in almost every game.

BOL!
Click to expand...

hoping so .. don't want a 35 yards and punt game which is what I am starting to fear a little. always cheer for total first
 
bloodhound said:
well hell, we dont appear to have much in common this wk but I do wish U the BOL on them all...one of us will be winners...Rice Bama Clem and BYU for me and against u on a few
Have a Great week Kyle
:shake:
Click to expand...

my numbers sucj this week .. good sign for you on the oppos.

I get the wr is back for ville but that team is not very good and if you look at the offenses faced ... the defense may not be as good as we think .. they might be .. but maybe not.
 
Some locker room material for GT. Justin Thomas QB rating is very high. I don't think you could find an NFL scout that would tell you that Smelter or Waller has hurt his NFL stock by showing he can block like a maniac, make possession extending receptions, and burn the defending corners deep, like they have this year.

Last week was epic execution by offense all game to save porous defense. I imagine Duke will have their share of big plays. Hopefully, the offense continues the grind, man they looked tight against Miami. Win them all this week.

Johnson: Cutcliffe ‘ought to worry about his own problems’


Tech_Paul_Johnson.jpg



Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson, who was hired within days of David Cutcliffe at Duke in December 2007, is 6-0 against Cutcliffe.


By Ken Sugiura
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A day after Duke coach David Cutcliffe rhetorically asked why a high-school wide receiver prospect would want to play at Georgia Tech, coach Paul Johnson responded with a question of his own.
“How many receivers have they put in the NFL?” Johnson asked after the Yellow Jackets’ Wednesday practice in preparation for Saturday’s game against Duke. “I can tell you. None. They’ve had one offensive player (drafted by) the NFL in his six years there. … He probably ought to worry about his own business.”
Johnson’s comments followed those made by Cutcliffe at his Tuesday news conference about recruiting challenges that Tech faces because of Johnson’s unorthodox spread-option offense. While praising Tech coaches for finding fits for the Jackets’ offense and for the team’s success, Cutcliffe said that it is more difficult to convince “high-end players” with an eye on the NFL to play at Tech in a system dissimilar to pro offenses. On Wednesday, he said that he meant it as a compliment and a commentary on the mindset of high-school prospects.
“We’re dealing with young people today that think about the NFL, talk about the NFL, and so any of us that are a little different (face that challenge),” Cutcliffe said on the ACC coaches teleconference. “We have the same circumstances here in who we can recruit and do recruit.”
Johnson was not flattered.
“I would think he’s got enough problems of his own,” Johnson said. “He ought to worry about his own problems instead of helping us with ours. We’ve done pretty good against him so far.”
Johnson, who was hired at Tech within days of Cutcliffe in December 2007, is 6-0 against Cutcliffe. Duke quarterback Sean Renfree was drafted in 2013 by the Falcons, one of two Duke players drafted since Cutcliffe’s hire. A handful of undrafted Duke offensive players have reached the NFL in Cutcliffe’s tenure, though some were recruited by former Duke coach Ted Roof, now Tech’s defensive coordinator.
Tech has had five offensive players drafted since Johnson’s hire, three of whom were inherited, and 13 overall. Two wide receivers, Demaryius Thomas and Stephen Hill, were drafted, although Thomas was on the roster when Johnson was hired. An undrafted receiver, Kevin Cone, also reached the NFL.
 
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