time to post my week 6 card so far

Wash/USC Under 56
illinois/iowa over 45.5
cmich/wmich over 52
mtsu/wku over 64
latech/utsa under 62
 
clowncar said:
Just telling you .. ball state will get hammered tomorrow...... up to 11 now .. I am no idiot ... it will get hammered tomorrow. You have less than 24 hours of getting Double digits in my estimation.
Click to expand...
it was @ 10.5 this a.m. at my shop...now back to 11. Maybe an injury somewhere? If you get a chance or hear appreciate any info. :shake:
 
[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 515"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: thin; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204);">[TR="class: header"]
[TH="align: left"]Matchup[/TH]
[TH]
i
[/TH]
[TH]
i
[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]6-13[/TD]
[TD]6-17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]0-1[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]444[/TD]
[TD]262[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]236[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]16-22[/TD]
[TD]23-37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]7.5[/TD]
[TD]6.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]280[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]5.8[/TD]
[TD]0.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]14-135[/TD]
[TD]3-35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]32:29[/TD]
[TD]27:3[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Maybe that box scares some people with a lot of Ball yards coming late after game decided.
 
I know NIU has played some tough defenses, and on the road no less .. but they are one of 21 teams averaging less than 5 yards per play on offense this year. And as tough as the NIU schedule has been, is it any tougher than having gone on the road to TAMU, and NW as well as hosting Toledo?

Also think there is good history for Ball State as a DD dog.
 
clowncar said:
Wash/USC Under 56
illinois/iowa over 45.5
cmich/wmich over 52
mtsu/wku over 64
latech/utsa under 62
Click to expand...

Was going through my open bets ... mtsu/wky was made at 65 not 64 fwiw. Corrected in post #1. I know none of you care that much but I want it accurate.
 
Final additions. My card is now complete other than if there is a late injury news piece, a late weather play, or a huge line or total move that puts something in an area I want involved in. So this is it ....

ADDS

NCState Pick
Ohio State/Maryland over 54.5
Michigan State -14
Michigan State/Rutgers over 51.5
 
clowncar said:
I lied... I will back the Ohio State offense this week.
Click to expand...

It sure is tempting, LOL...

Some rumors going around now that Edsall will be canned after the game. Not sure what contributions Maryland will be able to make to that over total. If OSU gets their shit straight they should cover that on their own.
 
phife said:
It sure is tempting, LOL...

Some rumors going around now that Edsall will be canned after the game. Not sure what contributions Maryland will be able to make to that over total. If OSU gets their shit straight they should cover that on their own.
Click to expand...


Big if.

You could kinda chase them covering anything right now. It will happen, just depends on when...and bigger is when does CUM finally make switch at QB...I heard a weird lil rumor of why he hasn't from an OSU guy other night but taking with a grain of salt...

And yes he is gone.
 
phife said:
It sure is tempting, LOL...

Some rumors going around now that Edsall will be canned after the game. Not sure what contributions Maryland will be able to make to that over total. If OSU gets their shit straight they should cover that on their own.
Click to expand...

I was thinking about a Maryland TT under bet. Looks like it will be in the 10/10.5 area?
 
B.A.R. said:
Big if.
Click to expand...

Well, yeah, obviously. This is gambling and all and everything we do revolves around "if's"...though I do think it's a bit easier to fix penalties and turnovers mid-season than it is lack of talent and motivation.

Not sure what rumor you're referring to but clearly JT's personality lends himself better to handling a backup whereas Cardale has been a bit of a vocal malcontent at times in his OSU tenure. So perhaps they're appeasing Cardale a bit. With that said, I'm not really buying into any conspiracy theories as there's been nothing to demonstrate that JT should be the starter based on his on-field performance this year. JT has been dreadful. I try to stay out of 'who should be the starter stuff' because I don't see what goes on all week at practice. I'll defer to coaches in most situations.

Nevertheless, Edsall as a lame duck coach this weekend seemed like some new and pertinent handicapping info.
 
Espn had article on ohio st offensive coach from last year now coach of the Houston cougars. No wonder Ohio state offense suck while Houston is taking off. Also Spartans defensive coach now head coach at Pitt. That shows why they can't Fukin hold the leads late.....gotta rant cause these 2 teams cost me a lot this year.
 
number2 said:
Espn had article on ohio st offensive coach from last year now coach of the Houston cougars. No wonder Ohio state offense suck while Houston is taking off. Also Spartans defensive coach now head coach at Pitt. That shows why they can't Fukin hold the leads late.....gotta rant cause these 2 teams cost me a lot this year.
Click to expand...


I was actually talking with someone less than an hour ago about the Michigan state line move down. I theorize the faders have no reason to stop fading and the backers are tired of losing .. correct me if I am wrong but I think they are 0-fer the spread. Luckily I watched Rutgers against Kansas and I am extremely confident that barring weather or injury, Michigan State posts an offensive number in this game.

Play calling has been getting called out as a main reason for the Ohio State problems ...kind of hard to deny it is a major cause and as such, a major concern as far as fixing it. With that said, I think plays are available for this team that they have just failed to execute. A lot of odd turnovers, mishandled snaps, poorly thrown balls, and quite frankly... bad offensive line play. But they are still on the cusp of a break out game. Terps seem poised to just get rolled. Coach is out apparently, season is in shambles, and I just don't see them competing hard for long unless tosu has another cruddy first quarter.
 
Interesting, given BAR's polling thread amongst us it seems like MSU has finally lost the respect at this site (myself included) so I'd assume that's the going attitude in many places including E Lansing. This seems the right time for Michigan State to roll, perfect opponent and perception is as low as it's been.

Not as sure about tOSU, feels as though they are still getting a pass. I bring it up because team attitude often reflects fan base attitude, and while I'm sure the OSU fan base would like to see an ass kicking at some point, they all pretty much know they're still considered the best whether right or wrong.

MSU seems a very solid play to me.
 
kjohnson109 said:
Interesting, given BAR's polling thread amongst us it seems like MSU has finally lost the respect at this site (myself included) so I'd assume that's the going attitude in many places including E Lansing. This seems the right time for Michigan State to roll, perfect opponent and perception is as low as it's been.

Not as sure about tOSU, feels as though they are still getting a pass. I bring it up because team attitude often reflects fan base attitude, and while I'm sure the OSU fan base would like to see an ass kicking at some point, they all pretty much know they're still considered the best whether right or wrong.

MSU seems a very solid play to me.
Click to expand...

:cheers3:
 
Tonight hurt. Not because I went 0-2 and had the wrong side of both games to boot (don't let the usm box score fool you, Marshall was the better team) but because the Golden Eagles were one of my favorite plays of the whole week. I have a feeling it could get ugly .. backing UConn and Illinois to score on the road is usually a tough way to make a living. Michigan is obviously free money ..... if you are a betting patterns person then you will be on Michigan. I have to trust my numbers and quite frankly the match ups .... but somehow, Michigan is going to win because that is what the line movement says is going to happen.

It seems awfully hard to head into a weekend without being behind something ... for whatever reason, I truly struggle at the Monday through Friday stuff ... it could be because I have an away team bias and the home field means more on weekdays ... not sure.

The unders trend continued as well .. 3-1 to the under to start this week after an under bonanza last week.

looks like ...

mild edge on wvu, duke, ill/iowa ov terps/tosu ov , ball st (finally starting to see some 9.5s what took so long?), uva (hard to like after watching ncsu and vt tonight), uconn

mild disadvantage on Illinois, cmich/wmich ov (I like it anyway), UConn/ucf (uh oh)

significant edge on mtsu/wku ov, Tulsa, latech/utsa un (quite the drop), tcu, michst/rut

significant disadvantage on msu (don't care .. they hit 38 minimum in this game)



I have some interest in South Carolina and some interest in Utah State but I haven't made a firm decision yet.
 
would love to hear your thoughts on the SC play. I took the under. Think they take it easy on us with the stale crowd?
 
ksimpsc said:
would love to hear your thoughts on the SC play. I took the under. Think they take it easy on us with the stale crowd?
Click to expand...

Not really. It is a tough spot for Scarolina ... but I just have faith in Spurrier in this type of situation. I mean, I am no x's and O's genius but you can load up to stop the run against this tiger team right now and make Harris beat you and I have to think that is exactly what S Carolina is going to do. The schedule, while not LSU's fault since who knew Aub, Miss St and Cuse would all be this far below what they have been in recent years (especially miss st), just hasn't proven to me they are this kind of team. But I think what really strikes me is that LSU is 13th in the nation in yards per play, 3rd in the nation in rushes for 40 yards or greater and yet haven't reached 500 yards in a game. That is just a really telling stat about LSU games play out. I will get back to that .. but in stream of consciousness ... S Carolina, despite having a putrid rushing defense is actually better statistically than Miss St and Auburn in that department and Cuse who is pretty good in that department, kind of had success for most of the game in slowing down the lsu offense. Back to how LSU games play out ... they are one of the twenty slowest paced teams in football and South Carolina is one of the 40 slowest paced teams in football .... just seems to me that lsu will have to be too perfect to cover the 20/21 this thing is likely to kick off at. LF is the best player in the country ... I love him .. I love the brand of football lsu plays but I have to think spurrier makes the opposing qb do some work. In addition, not sure this isn't a lesser version of the lsu defenses we have seen most of the last decade. I think they can be had at times. I dunno ... I don't really want to back the gamecocks in this spot ... but I like some things and they don't have to play extra great to keep it closer than this. down 24 to start the fourth, they may still be in decent shape to cover if they aren't exhausted from being pounded all game ..... just don't let them run left. Hear me Head Ball Coach at South Carolina? Don't let them run left.
 
clowncar said:
Not really. It is a tough spot for Scarolina ... but I just have faith in Spurrier in this type of situation. I mean, I am no x's and O's genius but you can load up to stop the run against this tiger team right now and make Harris beat you and I have to think that is exactly what S Carolina is going to do. The schedule, while not LSU's fault since who knew Aub, Miss St and Cuse would all be this far below what they have been in recent years (especially miss st), just hasn't proven to me they are this kind of team. But I think what really strikes me is that LSU is 13th in the nation in yards per play, 3rd in the nation in rushes for 40 yards or greater and yet haven't reached 500 yards in a game. That is just a really telling stat about LSU games play out. I will get back to that .. but in stream of consciousness ... S Carolina, despite having a putrid rushing defense is actually better statistically than Miss St and Auburn in that department and Cuse who is pretty good in that department, kind of had success for most of the game in slowing down the lsu offense. Back to how LSU games play out ... they are one of the twenty slowest paced teams in football and South Carolina is one of the 40 slowest paced teams in football .... just seems to me that lsu will have to be too perfect to cover the 20/21 this thing is likely to kick off at. LF is the best player in the country ... I love him .. I love the brand of football lsu plays but I have to think spurrier makes the opposing qb do some work. In addition, not sure this isn't a lesser version of the lsu defenses we have seen most of the last decade. I think they can be had at times. I dunno ... I don't really want to back the gamecocks in this spot ... but I like some things and they don't have to play extra great to keep it closer than this. down 24 to start the fourth, they may still be in decent shape to cover if they aren't exhausted from being pounded all game ..... just don't let them run left. Hear me Head Ball Coach at South Carolina? Don't let them run left.
Click to expand...
really great thoughts there thanks for the late response. I agree with all of that said. I am just a little worried because if Schottenheimer can figure a way to put up 50 on us I have a hard time thinking that Les won't either. Definitely completely different styles and I am very intruiged to hear those stats about us being better ypp than some of those other teams because nearly every team has rushed for 5ypp or more on the ground. I do like the ball coach in big dog role but he got burned on the last one. I am also a little worried about the team. We had the flood over the weekend and shut down the city for the early part of the week. I doubt they got a full regiment in and now have to travel to LSU for the game. I placed LSU just because I am a negative nancy but definitely some food for thought here
 
ksimpsc said:
really great thoughts there thanks for the late response. I agree with all of that said. I am just a little worried because if Schottenheimer can figure a way to put up 50 on us I have a hard time thinking that Les won't either. Definitely completely different styles and I am very intruiged to hear those stats about us being better ypp than some of those other teams because nearly every team has rushed for 5ypp or more on the ground. I do like the ball coach in big dog role but he got burned on the last one. I am also a little worried about the team. We had the flood over the weekend and shut down the city for the early part of the week. I doubt they got a full regiment in and now have to travel to LSU for the game. I placed LSU just because I am a negative nancy but definitely some food for thought here
Click to expand...

Ya the spot is just horrific for south Carolina. Also, I should have been more clear .. south Carolina has given up less rush yards per game than miss st and aub but miss st has much better defensive ypc (almost a full yard) than south Carolina .... they were also attempting a couple field goals (les timeout) to win at the end of that game after admittedly being outplayed by the tigers (yay phantom holding). South Carolina isn't very good but they have also played a tough schedule .. unc, Georgia, Missouri, ucf and Kentucky .. 2-3 is what they are and what they should be (won vs unc when should not have, lost vs Kentucky when should not have.) but that is just a muuuuuuch harder schedule than what the tigers have seen so far. Florida on deck too.
 
USM looked like the right side in the first half last night. The blocked fg, subsequent penalty on Marshall's fg which led to a TD was the momentum switch. Watched baseball instead during the 2nd half so missed what was whatever left of that shit show.

I understand your trepidation with NW. The line movement is eerily similar to the BYU game. Why not hedge off?
 
clowncar said:
Ya the spot is just horrific for south Carolina. Also, I should have been more clear .. south Carolina has given up less rush yards per game than miss st and aub but miss st has much better defensive ypc (almost a full yard) than south Carolina .... they were also attempting a couple field goals (les timeout) to win at the end of that game after admittedly being outplayed by the tigers (yay phantom holding). South Carolina isn't very good but they have also played a tough schedule .. unc, Georgia, Missouri, ucf and Kentucky .. 2-3 is what they are and what they should be (won vs unc when should not have, lost vs Kentucky when should not have.) but that is just a muuuuuuch harder schedule than what the tigers have seen so far. Florida on deck too.
Click to expand...
good thoughts bro very well put and completely agree on the assessment of the schedule/record. Should most definitely have lost UNC looking back and I was at the Kentucky game feeling like we outplayed them. Guess it is kind of a bad spot for LSU as well.
 
clowncar said:
Not really. It is a tough spot for Scarolina ... but I just have faith in Spurrier in this type of situation. I mean, I am no x's and O's genius but you can load up to stop the run against this tiger team right now and make Harris beat you and I have to think that is exactly what S Carolina is going to do. The schedule, while not LSU's fault since who knew Aub, Miss St and Cuse would all be this far below what they have been in recent years (especially miss st), just hasn't proven to me they are this kind of team. But I think what really strikes me is that LSU is 13th in the nation in yards per play, 3rd in the nation in rushes for 40 yards or greater and yet haven't reached 500 yards in a game. That is just a really telling stat about LSU games play out. I will get back to that .. but in stream of consciousness ... S Carolina, despite having a putrid rushing defense is actually better statistically than Miss St and Auburn in that department and Cuse who is pretty good in that department, kind of had success for most of the game in slowing down the lsu offense. Back to how LSU games play out ... they are one of the twenty slowest paced teams in football and South Carolina is one of the 40 slowest paced teams in football .... just seems to me that lsu will have to be too perfect to cover the 20/21 this thing is likely to kick off at. LF is the best player in the country ... I love him .. I love the brand of football lsu plays but I have to think spurrier makes the opposing qb do some work. In addition, not sure this isn't a lesser version of the lsu defenses we have seen most of the last decade. I think they can be had at times. I dunno ... I don't really want to back the gamecocks in this spot ... but I like some things and they don't have to play extra great to keep it closer than this. down 24 to start the fourth, they may still be in decent shape to cover if they aren't exhausted from being pounded all game ..... just don't let them run left. Hear me Head Ball Coach at South Carolina? Don't let them run left.
Click to expand...

I can see Scary showing up. LSU is tough at home though. If the game was where it was supposed to be(and time...11AM), I liked Scary. I am pretty sure this is the game where LSU throws the ball a bit. Miles called out his NFL WRs pretty good this week, and the lineup will be toyed with. Does Scary "play for the people of Scary" angle?

Either way it is a ton of points.....I wouldn't have made the game that high, but that is me.....I am no line maker.

GL this week
 
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