time to post my week 6 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9
week 3 14-10-1, 2.9, 5.8
week 4 12-6-1, 5.35, 11.15
week 5 13-5-1, 7.5, 18.65
overall 73-49-4, 18.65 59.8%

Saturday was a lot of fun. Actually did ok avoiding a few possible bad beats and the UTEP backdoor push brought me joy. Get to keep my beautiful hair to blow in the wind when I run my hill sprints every morning since Miami hung on to cover in their dominant performance against the blue devils. Unlike yesterday, where there were not many big games as a fan to enjoy, week 6 brings a lot of big games ...Zona at Oregon, ousucks at tcu, ohio st at Maryland, florida at vols, tamu at miss st, Utah at ucla, Arizona st at usc, bama at ole miss, navy at afa, Stanford at ndame, mia at gt, pitt at uva, lsu at aub, utep at latech, scary at Kentucky and nebby at michst to name a few ... It has been awhile since we had a week with this many big and good games.

Locked In:
#357 EMU +21
#373 Navy -4
#379 Baylor -13
#410 Mich st -8
 #415 boise St -1.5
#337 Toledo -5.5
#413 unlv +10.5
2h Houston -2
#363 Tulsa +15
#396 Washington state -3
#383 Alabama -4 -116
#351 South Carolina -3 -120

#343/344 Kent State/NIU under 59
#363/364 Tulsa/Colorado State Under 63
#395/396 California/Washington State under 78.5
#345/#346 Wisconsin/Nwestern Over 47
#307/#308 Zona/Quacks Under 84
#309/#310 Ville/cuse over 46.5
2h usu/byu under 27.5
2h sdsu/fresno st under 26.5
TOSU/Terps over 59.5


Three Team ten Point teaser -120
lsu 17.5/Hawaii 16.5/usc -1.5

Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9
week 3 14-10-1, 2.9, 5.8
week 4 12-6-1, 5.35, 11.15
week 5 13-5-1, 7.5, 18.65
week 6 8-14 -7.56, +11.09
Overall 81-63-4



That's it



 
Last edited:
ManchesterUk said:
Miss state number when you see it gracias :shake:
Click to expand...

Pickem is what I have right now. Miss St does match up better to power run than to spread pass imo though so I may need to adjust that to tamu a small favorite after going over the game in more detail later. Tough spot for TAMU.
 
steed, Dwight, cog ... thanks.

Horses - Even a blind nut finds a squirrel now and then .. or something like that. Thought they played well and thought it was key that they were in the game long enough to not start pressing on offense. You could see the difference after they started falling behind as far as how the game could have snowballed if Wisconsin starts faster and usf is trying to play catch up. But ya .. basically went as capped.
 
Good luck, sir. Nice week. I was on the losing end of the Miners(+28).
The in-laws will be here this weekend , if it helps in your capping.
I'm hoping they leave Saturday, but I fear the worst.
 
Baylor line is 7 points off, maybe more.

Briles will not hesitate to inflict whatever damage he can on our program while it's down.
 
Looked at spreads and knew you'd be on Baylor
.

I came to this thread thinking I guarantee my boy kyle is on Baylor..
 
great work VK......just giddy that i got a solid number on that baylor game...just giddy
 
jimmymo said:
great work VK......just giddy that i got a solid number on that baylor game...just giddy
Click to expand...


That's why I try to post as fast as I can. No idea if you were playing anyway but if there is someone brave enough to tail, the faster I get them the plays the sooner they can attack the numbers. Presumably they will usually be in our favor ... though occasionally, or more than I would want, they blow up in my face.

It would seem to me that in addition to the Baylor line that has moved with us ... that the open lines over reacted to the 7 turnover debacle boise state had against air force. boise was lined short at Nevada and Navy was lined short at AFA. Every hour or so since I played I have been peaking back over at those and the numbers are creeping up. Boise state will probably be 3 by morning and Navy has nudged up as well. Michigan State has gone up consistently since post as well .. might even nudge up to ten soon. Nebraska is pretty good but matches up poorly in my estimation ... so that was the one I expected to not move as much. I went ahead and took emu because it was the largest variance by pr on the entire card and I think I have emu as the lowest ranked team in the nation ... if not, then thereabouts. In other words, I can't go much lower with the EMU pr. Seems like an over reaction to whipping Pitt last week. Not sure how Akron can be up for this game after partying following the Pitt game. They aren't exactly scoring juggernauts to be laying this many. I expect that one to go down of course... but it might nudge up before that ... I don't think there is a rush to back this team. And ... it hasn't moved yet which is a bad sign to me when it is sitting on the third TD. Most people like me who are off a ton would have bet it too.

But it looks like a good start to the week as far as how things have moved since my post.

Houston getting a little money .. might be three's across by morning. Tempting to take Houston ...
Fresno opened the dog and are now the favorite
Wisconsin and TCU took some money
UVA bet off of the 4 to 4.5
Miami bet to the favorite ( likely over estimating their domination of Duke not realizing it is more about Duke ).
ga southern bet up to 17 .. no surprise I guess.
 
Go get yourself some more money this week Kyle. Fantastic work this year my man.

SDSU/Fresno line will move bc tonight Rocky Long said SDSU's starting QB will be out for the game against Fresno
 
First glance for me, FWIW:

Miami(OH) -4
Wisconsin -9.5
Baylor (no doubt, but it's now at 14.5 (-115) on BOL)
USC -10
ECU -Whatever
UAB +13.5
Utah +13
Tennessee +1.

Nebraska all the way up to +10...good get on MSU.
 
Just thought I'd post this here

I blind tailed you on northwestern last week and took em ml .. Idk why of the games that one stood out to me, but it wasn't anywhere near my radar... So thanks for that!
 
I played Rice -6 vs. Hawaii and Middle Tenn -16.5 vs. Southern Miss. Thoughts on either?

I'm shocked Hawaii is getting less than a td while traveling to Texas.
 
Br@ssknux said:
First glance for me, FWIW:

Miami(OH) -4
Wisconsin -9.5
Baylor (no doubt, but it's now at 14.5 (-115) on BOL)
USC -10
ECU -Whatever
UAB +13.5
Utah +13
Tennessee +1.

Nebraska all the way up to +10...good get on MSU.
Click to expand...

I made Miami oh -4 so zero interest there and usually if I make it -4 with a crappy or semi-crappy team and it is 4, I actually lean the dog more than the fave. So Zero interest there.

Wisconsin -- I made it around the number again. I sort of prefer Wisconsin only because I believe last weeks nw win over PSU was more the result of PSU than NW. We shall learn more about whether nw is back on track from that game.

Baylor -- Just hard to not take imo.

USC -- I don't trust them and not enough variance if I did.

ECU - ya

UAB - on my short list of possible plays. unfamiliarity keeping me from attacking already

Utah -- agree. think ucla is finally starting to round into form and not sure the uva result is as embarrassing as I once thought .. or Memphis for that matter ... the texas game was.

Vols - Prefer their team at home right now but hate hate hate the spot and will not back them

looks like neb backers jumped in at 10. makes sense.
 
Dollaz said:
I played Rice -6 vs. Hawaii and Middle Tenn -16.5 vs. Southern Miss. Thoughts on either?

I'm shocked Hawaii is getting less than a td while traveling to Texas.
Click to expand...


Actually some slight interest in Hawaii for me but I am waiting on some Hawaii thoughts from one of the guys I cap with on the regular.

Number seems a tad high by pr but usm doesn't deserve my money and mtsu capable of destroying them. No interest.
 
Fine season so far. Why should I cap and waste my time.?
I should just copy and paste into my thread with my other sides.
I mean whats wrong with 59%? Nothing!
Great job!:shake:
 
Here we go again .. should probably wait until momentum stops but I like it at this number ... heaven help me....

#337 Toledo -5.5
 
Frank Costanza said:
VK...Not concerned that EMU is playing its 4th straight road game (even off a bye)?
Click to expand...


No .. I love the spot. EMU rested akron off a physical game that they also won vs a name school rich in football tradition and facing a team they probably think they can handle with ease ( and are probably right ). Spot seems good for them. Matchup is another issue... Akron DL is pretty good and emu likes to run it if they can. It's so far off from pr that I can just blindly bet it and know I will go 55% or so without any other advantages.
 
clowncar said:
I made Miami oh -4 so zero interest there and usually if I make it -4 with a crappy or semi-crappy team and it is 4, I actually lean the dog more than the fave. So Zero interest there.

Wisconsin -- I made it around the number again. I sort of prefer Wisconsin only because I believe last weeks nw win over PSU was more the result of PSU than NW. We shall learn more about whether nw is back on track from that game.

Baylor -- Just hard to not take imo.

USC -- I don't trust them and not enough variance if I did.

ECU - ya

UAB - on my short list of possible plays. unfamiliarity keeping me from attacking already

Utah -- agree. think ucla is finally starting to round into form and not sure the uva result is as embarrassing as I once thought .. or Memphis for that matter ... the texas game was.

Vols - Prefer their team at home right now but hate hate hate the spot and will not back them

looks like neb backers jumped in at 10. makes sense.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the thoughts as always. You know how I feel about NW. Completely agree with that thought. I think they'll regress back to the mean this week.

Funny you should mention USC, and how they can't be trusted. I used to avoid betting them either side due to Kiffin's infatuation with going for 2 early. (Completely removed the concept of key numbers). I admit that was an overreaction to my disgust with ASU having absolutely no respect for their own goal line.

I like Miami quite a bit. UMass is probably 17 points worse on the road, and Miami is loads better than they were last year.(Duh) They won't go winless, and there aren't a lot better candidates for a win than a home date with UMass.

UAB is better than that abomination on Saturday. 4 fluky scores in that game with FIU, and FIU's defense is not bad. I think they bounce back.

Had to eat Baylor at 14. Worth it I guess.
 
add

#343/344 Kent State/NIU under 59
#363/364 Tulsa/Colorado State Under 63
#363 Tulsa +15
#395/396 California/Washington State under 78.5
 
Need a few days away from capping/talking cfb ... probably wont be back until maybe the ingame Thursday night to cheer for Syracuse. Gonna burn out.
 
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