time to post my week 5 card so far
- Thread starter RetroVK
- Start date
TheSportsCruncher
Pretty much a regular
Liked this one and was watching the line, uh oh, goin' up...
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
At current numbers, here are some remaining interests ....
I have a minor investment in the usf Memphis game tailing someone I handicap with while my numbers don't really warrant it, which I won't discuss but the spot in this game is really bad for Memphis imo. I won't have a recommendation or any further involvement in the game.
I have a minor investment in the in the Nebraska game which I won't discuss. Again, tailing a different person I handicap while my own numbers don't really warrant the play. I won't have a recommendation or any further involvement in the game.
Kansas - I have a bit of a lean here but think I might have learned my lesson about backing them on the road and this is sort of a bad spot for them anyway. Cozart will play and that matters and is good for Kansas. I would probably need the 17 minimum to seriously consider it. This would be a talk me off.
minny/nw over - I want to look the game over some .. I posted the Ball st nw box in one of the other threads because I think it points to nw maybe not being as pure low scoring game oriented as some of us might be inclined to think. Both of these teams have banged up secondaries especially nw and that could be tough with a total this low to keep the scoring down. Strong lean to the over.
Ville/ncsu under - I missed the number and it will be tough for me to get involved in any capacity now but ncsu a bit methodical and I think both defenses have the edge over the offenses. talk me off and leaning to not playing.
Houston/Tulsa over - I don't see Houston not scoring a ton. Tulsa playing so fast and has the offense in high gear already. Those that know me and my style of handicapping know I have been a bit slow to adjust to the higher scoring nature of football these days. It is hard for me to go over a number like this as one bad qtr can end any chance but there should be tons of plays and tons of points. It is a talk me off and part of me wants to get involved just to prove to myself I can take an over like this ..... I will wait for weather regardless . no way I am investing without knowing it is perfect.
central mich plus the 2.5 - Talk me off lean. I am pretty sure NIU is down a notch this year and Cmich has now played tough against Oklahoma state and Michigan state and is at home against a team that has dominated the mac in recent years. They should be very up for this game and fairly confident. The problem is that I am not sure the line value is truly there or not when you are basically asking them to win the game. Maybe at 3/3.5 I could pull a trigger? If Cmich wins the word might get out on NIU before I can cash in on my opinion. bleh,.
Texas Tech Baylor under 88 -- Mahomes was limping around end of last game and there has to be some zing taken out of texas tech after what happened last Saturday. Hard for the zing to be taken out of their 8 man defensive unit though. I probably cannot do this after what I watched last week with tcu and after having rice against Baylor. Thing could easily hit 120 pts if both offenses are primed and running smooth. likely a pass on this talk me off but if you are interested in either texas tech or the over I would keep one eye on Mahomes health. Matters a lot.
Old Dominion or Old Dominion TT over or Old Dominion/Marshall over - I sort of like Old Dominion to score in this game. I just have a good feel for this team right now but I am having hard time putting tangible reasoning to my belief. It has left me with the dilemma of whether to invest or not at all and left me with the dilemma of the safest way of backing it. I would love for others to post their opinions or any information regarding this game.
ND/Clemson under 53 - Talk me off. Tell me what you think and I will add my thoughts later.
SDSU -9 -- Talk me off. I watched a struggling SJSU running attack and oline manhandle them. SDSU rb is pretty good and SDSU defense is pretty good and fresno state just looks like a bad football team right now. They must be for me to consider the Aztecs laying this many.
I have a minor investment in the usf Memphis game tailing someone I handicap with while my numbers don't really warrant it, which I won't discuss but the spot in this game is really bad for Memphis imo. I won't have a recommendation or any further involvement in the game.
I have a minor investment in the in the Nebraska game which I won't discuss. Again, tailing a different person I handicap while my own numbers don't really warrant the play. I won't have a recommendation or any further involvement in the game.
Kansas - I have a bit of a lean here but think I might have learned my lesson about backing them on the road and this is sort of a bad spot for them anyway. Cozart will play and that matters and is good for Kansas. I would probably need the 17 minimum to seriously consider it. This would be a talk me off.
minny/nw over - I want to look the game over some .. I posted the Ball st nw box in one of the other threads because I think it points to nw maybe not being as pure low scoring game oriented as some of us might be inclined to think. Both of these teams have banged up secondaries especially nw and that could be tough with a total this low to keep the scoring down. Strong lean to the over.
Ville/ncsu under - I missed the number and it will be tough for me to get involved in any capacity now but ncsu a bit methodical and I think both defenses have the edge over the offenses. talk me off and leaning to not playing.
Houston/Tulsa over - I don't see Houston not scoring a ton. Tulsa playing so fast and has the offense in high gear already. Those that know me and my style of handicapping know I have been a bit slow to adjust to the higher scoring nature of football these days. It is hard for me to go over a number like this as one bad qtr can end any chance but there should be tons of plays and tons of points. It is a talk me off and part of me wants to get involved just to prove to myself I can take an over like this ..... I will wait for weather regardless . no way I am investing without knowing it is perfect.
central mich plus the 2.5 - Talk me off lean. I am pretty sure NIU is down a notch this year and Cmich has now played tough against Oklahoma state and Michigan state and is at home against a team that has dominated the mac in recent years. They should be very up for this game and fairly confident. The problem is that I am not sure the line value is truly there or not when you are basically asking them to win the game. Maybe at 3/3.5 I could pull a trigger? If Cmich wins the word might get out on NIU before I can cash in on my opinion. bleh,.
Texas Tech Baylor under 88 -- Mahomes was limping around end of last game and there has to be some zing taken out of texas tech after what happened last Saturday. Hard for the zing to be taken out of their 8 man defensive unit though. I probably cannot do this after what I watched last week with tcu and after having rice against Baylor. Thing could easily hit 120 pts if both offenses are primed and running smooth. likely a pass on this talk me off but if you are interested in either texas tech or the over I would keep one eye on Mahomes health. Matters a lot.
Old Dominion or Old Dominion TT over or Old Dominion/Marshall over - I sort of like Old Dominion to score in this game. I just have a good feel for this team right now but I am having hard time putting tangible reasoning to my belief. It has left me with the dilemma of whether to invest or not at all and left me with the dilemma of the safest way of backing it. I would love for others to post their opinions or any information regarding this game.
ND/Clemson under 53 - Talk me off. Tell me what you think and I will add my thoughts later.
SDSU -9 -- Talk me off. I watched a struggling SJSU running attack and oline manhandle them. SDSU rb is pretty good and SDSU defense is pretty good and fresno state just looks like a bad football team right now. They must be for me to consider the Aztecs laying this many.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Not that you asked, but this is the internet so I'm going to expound with my opinion as if I were an expert: I think ASU is a terrible football team this year. I see no outright strengths relative to any other team. I barely even see any relative strengths within the context of their own team, as I look at the position groups, I think they are mundane at best and sub-standard at worst. If I made PR's I would probably have them even or just a tiny bit above CU for last in the division and I don't know that they aren't the 3rd or 4th worst team in the conference. Having said all that, its college football. Weird things can and do happen, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if they managed to be life and death with fUCLA late in this one, but I won't have any money on it.
I think the best on the board is probably either Oregon or Baylor.
GL this week.
I think the best on the board is probably either Oregon or Baylor.
GL this week.
T
The Capping Genius
Guest
BOL this week.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I might have talked myself out of the Marshall play when researching them last night. They lost so much last year and they are getting nothing on offense. They will have a true freshman behind center as well. I try not to get too emotionally involved when listening to mid week stuff, but Wilder got me pumped up. Sounds like the team took the loss very rough last week and were already back at it Sunday.
Some takes: Bentley has been on every read up until this past game. This confirms with my eye test. I think he's generally made good decisions, but just been a touch off. (Offense is pure timing based) Deep down, I believe he's going to be an All CUSA caliber QB in the future; but he certainly doesn't look like one right now. Im hoping they open up the offense, but I haven't gotten any kind of word that its in the works. Something has to change and I'm not sure it personnel related.... Of concern is we lost 2 OL last week so I will try to check the progress of those two. Connoer Mewbourne and Troy Butler.
ON defense, they have inserted their two best defensive players into the starting lineup; who happen to be true freshman defensive lineman. These two guys have been outstanding. The team is going to be fired up (got ass kicked at home last year). But, how do they respond? Im going to be on this team some down the stretch bc they are going to improve greatly; I just need to decide if this week is too soon.
sabertstxvii
Active Member
Like a few of these. Don't blame you for staying off of Kansas. Just not going to be fun way to get your Saturday going, and if they don't cover you are not going to be happy with yourself for betting on quite possibly the worst team in CFB.
Fresno couldn't stop anything last week and are down a QB. I think I like the Under 56 more here. SDSU has a pretty good D, and I don't see them scoring in the 50s...
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Another thing to note, while not trying to make excuses, is that ODU has played the following:
@Eastern Michigan- offense was adequate; not great. 5.7 yards per play. 4 TD
Norfolk State- in the driving rain. 5.7 yards per play. There was really no attempt to pass the ball as NSU could not move the ball on offense and we just ran the ball all over them (59 times)
NC State- Clearly outclassed. Just no competition
App State- in the driving rain. (though, they moved the ball in the rain; mainly on the ground) ODU had a couple drives where they moved the ball, but couldn't close the deal.
Clown, my gut tells me the offense will move the ball more. I don't want to rely too much on blaming the rain, but I do think its had an affect on 2 of the 4 games so far. Wind moreso last week vs. App State; there were gusts up to 40 mph.
@Eastern Michigan- offense was adequate; not great. 5.7 yards per play. 4 TD
Norfolk State- in the driving rain. 5.7 yards per play. There was really no attempt to pass the ball as NSU could not move the ball on offense and we just ran the ball all over them (59 times)
NC State- Clearly outclassed. Just no competition
App State- in the driving rain. (though, they moved the ball in the rain; mainly on the ground) ODU had a couple drives where they moved the ball, but couldn't close the deal.
Clown, my gut tells me the offense will move the ball more. I don't want to rely too much on blaming the rain, but I do think its had an affect on 2 of the 4 games so far. Wind moreso last week vs. App State; there were gusts up to 40 mph.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Agree on all counts.
The thing about Wisconsin RBs is for so long know we have known who the heir and heirs are to replace the current stud. When John Clay was there we saw how good James White was. When James White replaced Clay, we saw Monte Ball. When White and Ball were both tearing it up we got a glimpse of Melvin Gordon and Gordon was like wow from first time you saw him.
So we knew that Clement was the next in that run of RBs as we saw him back up Gordon. And now he is out so they have run out of the difference making depth there. Atleast I haven't seen it. We are seeing average RBs and frankly an average OL. The drop off at RB and OL has hit at the same time so now Stave will have to win games with some pretty average receiving threats. Sure Iowa can be beat through the air, but don't think that Wisconsin is even as good at that compared to ISU or Pitt.
Wisconsin is 7th in the Big Ten scoring offense, this is off of games vs Troy and Hawaii their last 2 games. It no doubt bolsters their scoring D numbers, but vs those defenses Wisconsin should have been much more productive on O. I watched a good bit of the Hawaii game, and I'm not sure if it was just going through the motions or intentional playcalling, but UH really made them work for their yards and pts, there were maybe just 1 or 2 "explosive type plays". UW ran for 350+ but alot of that was just UH wearing out in the end.
I will definitely be ML this game as well. You'll have a better point spread than me, but hopefully it won't matter. Good luck!
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya I agree that I think this is a spot they could move the ball but I was looking at Don Best and it looks like there is a good chance this one is played in rain yet again. Could be a good excuse for me to avoid the game. One good thing for ODU backers as the season progresses is that offense rates to just get better and better. None of us could really reasonably expect them to click on all cylinders with a new scheme and new signal caller. We should see them start scoring more in conference play. Marshall playing very fast too so ODU will get plays. If Marshall gets up early, ODU may be forced into passing more too. Obvious concern is how good the yards per play defense has been for Marshall coupled with how bad the yards per play offense has been for the monarchs.
Wilder - "The first thing I’d like to say is that I’m embarrassed for Old Dominion University and our fans. That was an embarrassing performance. I take responsibility as a head coach when your team loses 49-0 at home in front of fans who came out to watch under difficult weather circumstances. I can’t emphasize how much that it is my responsibility and it is up to me to fix it. We need to work harder and smarter. I made it very clear to the players and the coaches in the locker room that we embarrassed ourselves today. There’s no other way to say it. But, I also made it very clear to them that, in situations like these, your character is revealed. You find out who you are as a person and who we are as a team. My number one goal when I get them back tomorrow at our practice facility is to remind them that we are a good football team. We need to respond to this and show that we can respond to this setback with a major comeback."
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Old Dominion coach Bobby Wilder lives only a few minutes from Foreman Field. But by the time he drove home Saturday night, he already had half a dozen text messages from players.
ODU had just suffered its worst home loss - a 49-0 shellacking from Appalachian State.
The messages, Wilder said, were exactly what he wanted to see.
"They all had good things to say," he said. "There weren't any suggestions or comments directed at any one player. They want to compete more in practice this week. They want it to be more physical in practice. They want us to hit more and work harder.
"I have a feeling this will be a very competitive week."
They came in here with a chip on their shoulder," Wilder said. "They came in here to prove they're a good football team that can beat anyone in Conference USA. You could see the energy their players had."Trailing 14-0, ODU twice drove deep into Appalachian territory. One ended in a 77-yard return of an ODU fumble for a touchdown, the other with a missed field goal.
ODU trailed 21-0, and the Monarchs became unglued. "When it started to get away from us, they jumped all over us," Wilder said.
ODU had just suffered its worst home loss - a 49-0 shellacking from Appalachian State.
The messages, Wilder said, were exactly what he wanted to see.
"They all had good things to say," he said. "There weren't any suggestions or comments directed at any one player. They want to compete more in practice this week. They want it to be more physical in practice. They want us to hit more and work harder.
"I have a feeling this will be a very competitive week."
They came in here with a chip on their shoulder," Wilder said. "They came in here to prove they're a good football team that can beat anyone in Conference USA. You could see the energy their players had."Trailing 14-0, ODU twice drove deep into Appalachian territory. One ended in a 77-yard return of an ODU fumble for a touchdown, the other with a missed field goal.
ODU trailed 21-0, and the Monarchs became unglued. "When it started to get away from us, they jumped all over us," Wilder said.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I think we see Wisconsin and this game as identically as we probably could. I will also have a little ml .. might even parlay it with unlv ml for a huge payday.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
since someone brought up Hawaii; should they really be getting 25 points? They aren't going to score much, but I think their defense has played relatively well. Granted Wisky and OSU haven't been world beaters on offense, but they are two more talented teams and Hawaii's defense was at least respectable. Boise will be starting a freshman QB at home off a huge win. (I think these kids circle P5 games)
No one love Boise more than I do, but how much will they be looking ahead to the road matchup with Colorado State?
No one love Boise more than I do, but how much will they be looking ahead to the road matchup with Colorado State?
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Not sure on Hawaii. Are they staying consecutive weeks on the mainland? That can be as tough as the travel. Defense has been sound for Hawaii and they have performed admirably against col, tosu and Wisconsin. But this could be similar to what we saw with BYU at Michigan too, where Hawaii is just worn out. Boise started getting more aggressive in the play calling last week too. Wittek can be intercepted and the Boise DL will get pressure. I think Boise is probably slightly better than Wisconsin right now .... It just isn't for me. I could make a good case that Hawaii matches up well given they are pretty good against the run and tackle well and Boise is a run first team. So I am not interested in Boise either. BOL if you play it.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
always great ink and best of luck to you sir
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
TheSportsCruncher
Pretty much a regular
I think that's the best bet on the ODU game of the options you were mulling.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It's not a pr play.
What has Marshall done? Team won week 1 despite being outgained 397-454 against Purdue, lost to Ohio while being outgained 263-375, and won against kent state in overtime while being outgained 436-277. The common opponent faced was handled in similar fashion with roughly 200 yards of advantage for both teams vs. norfolk state. Doesn't hurt that there is a chance of wind that certainly should have a greater effect on the Marshall offense compared to the Old Dominion offense this week, though there is part of me that would prefer Marshall QB's handle it as much as possible. Old Dominion is a bad offensive team right not but probably not as bad as the stats show because they have played two really good defenses in App St and NCSU (both currently in the top five in total defense but obviously some of that is having faced the Monarchs in a small sample). Doubt that either of those defenses finishes in the top five this year but they will both be in the top 20 I would think or thereabouts. So the offense stinks, not saying otherwise, but it might not be as bad as the numbers show currently. But the defense hasn't been all that bad if you consider everything. They got worn down by both NCSU and App State because they were outplayed a combined 152-93. Again, I think you are looking at two rushing attacks that are pretty good when compared to what Marshall has right now. Marshall hasn't done diddly doo on offense in my opinion. They scored ten points against Ohio with the lone TD being a 73 yard run .... so didn't show the ability to drive the field for a score there (both idaho and Minnesota gained more yards against Ohio than did Marshall). They scored 41 pts against Purdue but 14 of that was on interception return for TD's (both VT and BG gained more yards against Purdue than did Marshall). They scored 22 points in regulation against Kent State and 7 of those were from a kickoff return for a TD (Both Illinois and Minnesota gained more yards against Kent State than did Marshall despite Marshall adding 50 yards in overtimes).
So basically have a team that has scored 52 offensive points in three games vs. FBS competition (though all three superior to ODU) for an average of roughly 17 pts per game in offensive production laying 18.5. Now, I would say they rate to score closer to what they did offensively against Purdue than a very good kent state defense or a pretty good ohio defense in perfect weather but that is a lot of pts to lay with a currently anemic offense possibly playing in high wind and wet.
The third down conversion numbers are a concern for me with Old Dom being so bad offensively and Marshall being pretty good defensively ... I don't think ODU can cover the game if they are in another situation where they run less than 50 plays and their opponent runs over 70 plays ... so they will need to get better at third down. Another concern is how they obliterated Old Dominion in last year's game and largely with the running game where the QB situation is less meaningful, though Cato was 18 of 23 in that game.
From a situation standpoint .. Marshall may well realize they are not as good a football team as they had last year but I don't think they are in any position that would make the players feel the urgency because they won two games they should have lost. And it can't be a game they are overtly concerned about given last year's game when they have a more important game against USM on deck Friday night for a slightly shorter week afterwards.
Just seems like too many pts. to me. Maybe Marshall wakes up offensively in this game (rain/wind or no) and I do think that ODU being shut down completely last week was mostly bad offense vs. good defense and not because they just had a bad game .... but I also feel that ODU finds the end zone this week a couple of times and that makes it pretty tough to cover this number for the Herd.
Marshall 30 Old Dominion 17 in the rain or Marshall 36 Old Dom 23 in decent weather. Either way, I think Monarchs compete a full sixty minutes after hanging their heads last week against a much better team than Marshall.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
FWIW, I am considering playing Wyoming at current numbers and probable bad weather in the Carolinas. It would be a nice middle shot with 17 18 20 21 23 24 all in play. Buddy was telling me App State a good fit for weather given how much they run it and I kind of agree with that so I may just end up keeping the darn thing and there is certainly no need to panic about possible weather at this point in the week. But in case I had not mentioned this before, I don't think App State is a value at current numbers.
TheSportsCruncher
Pretty much a regular
And Devon Johnson is "?" for Marshall, and he's about the only weapon they have right now. And yes, great breakdown on the game. I can't believe how collapsed this Marshall team is compared to last year's.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
They lost Cato, Shuler, and Frhnapfel. There is a huge step down at QB. Schuler last year had 1100 yards and 90 catches. They lost best TE. They lost a first team all-CUSA center. They also lost 2 part time starters on the OL.
The defense last year was led by the pass defense as they really got after the QB. It's easy to play pass defense when you get pressure. They lost 90 tackles, 31 tackles for loss, and 14 sacks on the defensive line from a year ago. They lost 170 tackles, 28 tackles for loss, and 9 sacks from the linebacking core last year. Most of the secondary is back outside on their best corner from last year.
Marshall still has loads of talent on the team and should have an excellent secondary. But, they have a huge dropoff at QB and wide receiver (possibly OL) and lost almost their entire front 7 on defense. They have highly ranked guys, but that is hard to replace.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
Nice writeup. I bought off of Marshall and bet a little more at ODU +18.5 so I could get royally screwed, but I hardly every buy off games. Like I said the other day, I just had overated Marshall and assumed the offense was better than it actually was. I pretty much agree completely with your thoughts.
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
I'll second that.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Going to push some small edges tonight.
Add
Memphis -7 -115
Temple -20
Memphis/USF over 58
Temple/Charlotte over 44
BYU -14
BYU/Uconn over 45
For full disclosure i have a little USF at dd tailing someone else. The spot is horrible for Memphis, sandwiched between Cin and Ole Miss ... but this has gotten a bit out of hand.
Also for full disclosure, I am pushing small (perceived) edges with these picks. They are not of the same quality as the Saturday stuff. Tailer beware.
lol Golden.
Add
Memphis -7 -115
Temple -20
Memphis/USF over 58
Temple/Charlotte over 44
BYU -14
BYU/Uconn over 45
For full disclosure i have a little USF at dd tailing someone else. The spot is horrible for Memphis, sandwiched between Cin and Ole Miss ... but this has gotten a bit out of hand.
Also for full disclosure, I am pushing small (perceived) edges with these picks. They are not of the same quality as the Saturday stuff. Tailer beware.
lol Golden.
Canes1
Pretty much a regular
The end game stuff aside, he bet hope they make serious noise in the conference portion of the schedule. That loss feels like the final nail to me. It's been the same things every year during his tenure and he has shown an inability to fix them namely: 3rd down conversion, penalties and defensive scheme. The secondary was terrible last night, Dallas Crawford in particular.
D
dudleysdad
Guest
Friday night overs says clown
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I could take an hour and write several pages on Golden last night ... but I have beaten that horse to several ctg guys already and I need to move on. And I didn't start complaining just at the end, I started first qtr...
The pace they got plays in, the wasted timeouts, the lack off aggression except the one moment he should not be, the play calling, the time management, the run pass ratio, the pace of play itself, the desire to attempt to defeat the bearcat D up the middle on the ground every key play on offense which was the lone spot the bearcats were clearly beating them, the red zone calls, etc etc etc ...it was hard to watch. Incidentally, Tubs wasn't much better.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I just eant to watch good defensive football and investing in overs seems the easiest way
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Memphis with a bye next week before Ole Miss on the 17th, so this hopefully helps their focus a bit more tonight.
D
dudleysdad
Guest
Well at least we won't see all the teams in the spread offense tonight.
Canes1
Pretty much a regular
Agreed on all of that. My buddies and I said the same in our text chain. What I find damning is the lack of offensive game plan. When was the last time you saw them find a matchup they could exploit and they did? Never. I have been a golden supporter for years just for continuities sake and my eyes are finally open to the fact he and his coordinators are average at best. His loyalty to d'onfrio will be his undoing at the end of the year. also FSU didn't start winning real things until jimbo started calling plays (when coley left/forced out).
D
dilaudid8
Guest
clown bol my man
jimmymo
Beer and Betting Belong Together
I put colorado in on the H2H contest, but didn't actually bet....I have a feeling that by kickoff I will be betting this game on the Ducks side.....my biggest worry is watching the first 5 minutes and realizing that I have the lesser team, laying points, on the road....then, its all about cocktails and miracles.
GL this week CC.....you da man
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Possible .... I worry anytime I fade this much steam with a road favorite .. .. but faded the steam with Memphis yesterday for a push when that hit 7 and the opponent needed to convert a fourth down late (PI) to backdoor us from winning. Faded the steam with BYU when it hit 14 and won (should have won by a lot more) and faded the steam with temple when it hit 20 and won handily though score is slightly misleading imo. So I have a little more confidence in fading the steam when I get to these key numbers than I might otherwise making this play. I also have the endorsement of someone I respect a lot who follows the Ducks closely and who I cap with regularly. It was one of his favorite plays when it was DD early in the week. I doubt I can be in too bad of shape with it.
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