time to post my week 5 card so far

Arizona State's tackling was beyond horrid last night.

Vs UCLA not sure if the blitzing style of their D could be an angle vs Rosen?
 
THIEF ! THIEF !
I think you have stolen some points in just about every game.
GL mr. early bird
 
If they had to line the ASU/UCLA game yesterday, it would've been single digits. And when you consider both finals were misleading (both box scores looked like that of a 1-2 possession game), and you're getting a pretty damn good coach with a bunch of points in a spot similar to the upset over USC last year, it's hard to argue which side to back.
 
How much relevance does the box score have when both games were over at halftime?

What does last year's USC/ASU game have to do with this year's matchup vs UCLA? ASU wasn't all that great last year and this year they're clearly several notches down as evidenced by their poor play throughout this season.

lindetrain said:
If they had to line the ASU/UCLA game yesterday, it would've been single digits. And when you consider both finals were misleading (both box scores looked like that of a 1-2 possession game), and you're getting a pretty damn good coach with a bunch of points in a spot similar to the upset over USC last year, it's hard to argue which side to back.
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phife said:
How much relevance does the box score have when both games were over at halftime?

What does last year's USC/ASU game have to do with this year's matchup vs UCLA? ASU wasn't all that great last year and this year they're clearly several notches down as evidenced by their poor play throughout this season.
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Don't you think it's relevant to determine how/why both games were over at halftime? Zona and UCLA were virtually even in yardage, but the Cats did themselves in with two fumbles inside their own 30 and an INT that led to the Bruins going up 28. ASU missed two FGs and had four TOs, including the back-breaking 100 yard scoop and score when they had a chance to cut it to 21-7. To be honest, it's pretty incredible that both losing teams had 250+ yards offense in the first half and trailed by 28+.

I'm not denying that it appears ASU is down this year, but they looked down last year when UCLA hung 62 on them in their first test - and then they rattled off an impressive five-game win streak. I still tend to think Graham is one of the better coaches in the conference and is capable of getting the most out of his team when everyone has counted them out.
 
jimmymo said:
Tell me why NCSU not on the radar...know the start has been a cupcake, but they have done what has been asked and looked well doing...not sold on Lou
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NCSU has done nothing but do what they are supposed to do ... could be tougher running here though. S bama, Troy and Old Dom are 113th, 119th and 115th against the run right now (obviously small sample and some of it is because of the NCSU rush numbers themselves). Ville more middle of the pack statistically but have played Houston, Auburn and Clemson. Just seems they are more battle tested. And again, Old Dom, Troy and sbama are all ranked 91st or worst in total offense compared to a ville team in the middle of the pack despite playing the aforementioned teams. NCSU is going to have to pass it a little more here... their passing numbers are actually pretty good from a ypa standpoint but they just haven't needed to do it. I think the game is lined pretty good where it is and it may take ncsu a qtr to be playing big boy football again after the first month of the year of playing "lessers". I guess I want to make the pack prove it .... and then when they do, there will be no value on them going forward. Ville in a bit of a quandry too ... drop this one and then back to the road at fsu .... staring 1-5 in the face and that doesn't leave a lot of room to reach a bowl. And that would be made tougher if they were 0-3 in conference. I don't like this situation as a whole for NCstate this game, despite liking their team quite a bit. good luck if you take ncstate and i get it if you do but cornered rats can be tough outs.
 
s--k said:
How is Wisconsin -8? Would Wisconsin actually be favored at Iowa? Don't know what you give for HF at Camp Randall and Kinnick, but shocked to see that number at 8. I've been against UW last two weeks and am pretty bitter about losing on Hawaii last night, felt all I needed was one score and UH had 1st down at the 1 in the 3rd qrt before they imploded with penalties. But this Wisconsin team isn't all that good in my opinion and thought that Iowa's point explosion vs NT might lose some value on this game.
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The holes and push of the Wisconsin Oline are not what they have been. Iowa DL is pretty good and if Wisconsin cannot move them they have to rely on you-know-who to get the job done at QB. Iowa with good momentum. I do fear that Wisconsin has been looking forward to this game and has just been going through the motions the last few games but I don't see that same explosiveness out of their rushing attack. Clement is a notch or two below Gordon but only because Gordon was so good .... but he is good. The problem is that he is out with a sports hernia and the drop off from him to the next back is pretty big too. Game rates to play as a grinder and anything over a TD seems very excessive to me. Iowa has the better QB as well when the fourth quarter rolls around. Sort of see this as a year where Wisconsin takes a bit of a back seat in the conference .... like you I am not impressed. Iowa has shown a desire to win in the 4th qtr too .. doubt they quit if down 14 or something and we are still very live.
 
phife said:
With you on most of your plays...except ASU.

I think they are who they are at this point. A bad football team. They've struggled each and every game (Cal Poly and New Mexico games were alarming) and I'm unable to come up with anything that they do particularly well.

Not sure if looking at the UCLA/Zona game as a reference point makes sense as that was a horribly lined game and would be adjusted majorly if the two teams met again next week. I think a lot of people remain enamored with Arizona and Dick Rod because they knocked off Oregon 2 years in a row.

I suppose UCLA could get caught napping in a lookahead spot, however.
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I think that is fair to an extent. They have now played two games against decent competition and failed both times ... but ... the TAMU box score and final score were pretty deceiving in my opinion. Not that TAMU wasn't the better team that deserved to cover and win but that ASU was really in that game for a majority of it and their defensive line played pretty good throughout. I think that can come into play against UCLA who occasionally struggles blocking. And if you look at the game this past weekend ... first half drives against USC .... 5 plays 75 yards fumble, 6 plays 49 yards missed fg, 5 plays 22 yards punt, 2 plays 3 yards interception with game sitting at 0-7, 11 plays 41 yards missed fg again, and then .... first and goal at the 1 they fumble and it is scooped up and run back for a TD to make it 28-0 instead of 21-7 .... and then fumble the kickoff and usc gets another quick one ... 35-0 ... despite playing pretty much dead even with USC. ASU has had a problem with turnovers, untimely penalties, drops by the wr etc. etc. but I think this is too many pts and it is a rather sudden change in their PR week over week based off a final score that was as deceiving as they come, even if they were a bit worse than the opponent that night. Meanwhile, UCLA benefitted from a flattering box score against a team that has been struggling defensively all year with or without shaggy..errr. So it also seems like a spot where UCLA might feel good about themselves and ASU comes out with a bigger chip on the shoulder. I think UCLA better show up or they are in trouble as far as winning the game, let alone covering. ASU could implode and UCLA is capable of destroying you if they do ..Not like I would be completely shocked by that but I will take the pts and my chances with the devils.
 
s--k said:
Arizona State's tackling was beyond horrid last night.

Vs UCLA not sure if the blitzing style of their D could be an angle vs Rosen?
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I think getting pressure will be key. Pretty good DL for ASU .. if they bring numbers he is going to have to get rid of it quickly.
 
bull said:
THIEF ! THIEF !
I think you have stolen some points in just about every game.
GL mr. early bird
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Ya it was a nice time and I went from thinking of taking the best five and calling it a week after my debacles of having bad numbers cost me not once but twice on the weekend and being mad about it. It's the least preparation I have had heading into openers by a mile but when you put out those numbers, i don't have to be a genius.
 
twinkie13 said:
Miles is pretty notorious for not covering these big lines

GL
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He may have to work especially hard here to keep this cover down. He is capable though... Obviously LSU rates to score a ton and just running out the clock they rate to score too .... I think the worry for not covering is if EMU can find pts. Not sure one way or the other but they do seem competent on offense which is more than cuse had going for them heading into that one.
 
lindetrain said:
If they had to line the ASU/UCLA game yesterday, it would've been single digits. And when you consider both finals were misleading (both box scores looked like that of a 1-2 possession game), and you're getting a pretty damn good coach with a bunch of points in a spot similar to the upset over USC last year, it's hard to argue which side to back.
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Yup.
 
phife said:
How much relevance does the box score have when both games were over at halftime?

What does last year's USC/ASU game have to do with this year's matchup vs UCLA? ASU wasn't all that great last year and this year they're clearly several notches down as evidenced by their poor play throughout this season.
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I think the first half boxscores are relevant.

I admit .. at a certain point you are what you are ... and there is the chance ASU is just as bad as they have shown. I doubt it but I have no evidence at all that they are any good .. in fact, I would argue that their first half against USC was one of their better halves of the season ... down 35-0 at the half. lol.
 
lindetrain said:
Don't you think it's relevant to determine how/why both games were over at halftime? Zona and UCLA were virtually even in yardage, but the Cats did themselves in with two fumbles inside their own 30 and an INT that led to the Bruins going up 28. ASU missed two FGs and had four TOs, including the back-breaking 100 yard scoop and score when they had a chance to cut it to 21-7. To be honest, it's pretty incredible that both losing teams had 250+ yards offense in the first half and trailed by 28+.

I'm not denying that it appears ASU is down this year, but they looked down last year when UCLA hung 62 on them in their first test - and then they rattled off an impressive five-game win streak. I still tend to think Graham is one of the better coaches in the conference and is capable of getting the most out of his team when everyone has counted them out.
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Not quite the fanboy you are on Graham but he was fairly confident in this team heading into the year and he will rally the troops for this big game I think. Pretty humiliating final score to have your fans looking at as they walk out of the stadium ...
 
102 .... that is how many pts the away teams combined outscored the home teams combined in pac12 conference games saturday. Insane.
 
Only looked at half of the games so far and don't mind a couple of yours- Iowa, ASU. But liking K.State over Okie State
 
clowncar said:
If you lay 7 points with Duke, quit betting sports.
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Guess it's time for me to hang it up! :O

I'll be back later with more thoughts; gonna be betting today once I can get necessary outs and limits. First time I've done that in awhile, but off my first losing week of the year I need to shake things up a bit. The Niffel blowouts ayer in the afternoon allowed me requisite time to firm up the cfb numbers this week a bit earlier than normal.

GL this week.
 
Alan Tongue said:
Only looked at half of the games so far and don't mind a couple of yours- Iowa, ASU. But liking K.State over Okie State
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Thought Oklahoma State's defense looked pretty good this past weekend. If they avoid the turnovers, they should be in good shape. The line I took was basically giving Kansas State a higher power rating than Oklahoma State. I don't think that is remotely possible. Also from a match up standpoint, Oklahoma State is sort of like Louisiana Tech on steroids. Latech should have beaten Kansas State in Manhattan (tip of the cap to the master, Bill Snyder for pulling out a win there) after outplaying Kansas State a majority of the game before committing a bad late turnover and losing in overtime. I think in some respects the spot is better for Kansas State with Oklahoma State coming off the Texas game but the Cowboys could also get every benefit from that Texas game ... 1-0 conference start, made enough mistakes to work hard in practice all week, and finally got a game under their belt against quality athletes. I don't think the central michigan performance looks quite as poor given what they did vs MSU Saturday. This Kstate team appears their weakest in a while. QB position is bad, playmakers non-existent ... It's all coaching and heart from that team.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Guess it's time for me to hang it up! :O

I'll be back later with more thoughts; gonna be betting today once I can get necessary outs and limits. First time I've done that in awhile, but off my first losing week of the year I need to shake things up a bit. The Niffel blowouts ayer in the afternoon allowed me requisite time to firm up the cfb numbers this week a bit earlier than normal.

GL this week.
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The last two weeks, Duke has gained 327 yards and 279 yards with 16 and 11 first downs respectively. Now face a defense that gave up 217 total yards to fsu and 153 total yards to NIU. Duke with basically two kick return TD's Saturday (one to the one yard line) and Boston College with a kick return TD allowed. Maybe Duke can get somewhere in Special Teams but that is a tough area to hang your hat on. Yards and points are going to be extremely tough to come by for both teams making a full TD extremely valuable. To lay 7 you are asking Duke to win by two scores to a team that hasn't given up three scores in a single game through the first month of the season. BC has to be a good play at a full TD.
 
clowncar said:
I think the first half boxscores are relevant.

I admit .. at a certain point you are what you are ... and there is the chance ASU is just as bad as they have shown. I doubt it but I have no evidence at all that they are any good .. in fact, I would argue that their first half against USC was one of their better halves of the season ... down 35-0 at the half. lol.
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Im struggling with this for FAU. My head tells me penalties and turnovers aren't predictable, but FAU may be the rule killer. They could easily be 4-0. (or 3-1)
 
Dollaz said:
Im struggling with this for FAU. My head tells me penalties and turnovers aren't predictable, but FAU may be the rule killer. They could easily be 4-0. (or 3-1)
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The conspiracy theorist in me is not ready to discuss FAU's football team. I wouldn't fade line moves involving them, let's put it that way.
 
clowncar said:
The conspiracy theorist in me is not ready to discuss FAU's football team. I wouldn't fade line moves involving them, let's put it that way.
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Well, yeah. I mean, can't say I didn't think the same thing when they were up 3 with a few mins left and the QB essentially kneeled down on third down. (announcers said ball was slipping, but it looked like he legitimately kneeled down for a 40 yard field goal attempt up 3 on 3rd and convertable late in the 4th quarter). Luckily Charlotte's offense is pathetic enough that they gifted FAU a pick 6.

edit, I need to reevaluate my life when I'm watching Charlotte/FAU in the driving rain on a Saturday night.
 
Dollaz said:
Well, yeah. I mean, can't say I didn't think the same thing when they were up 3 with a few mins left and the QB essentially kneeled down on third down. (announcers said ball was slipping, but it looked like he legitimately kneeled down for a 40 yard field goal attempt up 3 on 3rd and convertable late in the 4th quarter). Luckily Charlotte's offense is pathetic enough that they gifted FAU a pick 6.

edit, I need to reevaluate my life when I'm watching Charlotte/FAU in the driving rain on a Saturday night.
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Last week I was watching a replay (so an event i already knew the final score of) of Idaho hosting Wofford. I don't need to re-evaluate my life, I know it is pathetic.
 
Here it is. FAU up 3 with 5 mins left. THey got the ball at the Charlotte 19 on first and 10. Run for 5 yards. Run for a stuff. Then the Quarterback (who is number 32 and looks like a slow linebacker) takes a knee to lose 5 yards and set up a 36 yard field goal in the rain.
 
Remember last year when they would put up Ga Southern and then take all kinds of Ga Southern money and the players were winning. California seems to be that darling this year and the books better wise up to how they are lining their games because they have every type of support imaginable. The sharp early players like them, the pseudo-cappers (people like most of us) like them, and the general public likes them. They are going to have to bump their rating of this team to get anywhere close to even action on a Cal game where they are not playing one of the pac12 big boys.
 
Graham is pretty low on the PAC coaching pecking order as far as I'm concerned. The bowl game debacle 2 years ago vs Texas Tech may be unfairly influencing my thought process.

I do think if he was held in such high esteem he'd be on the first train leaving to a better program given his assholish/mercenary nature. I never hear his name mentioned when higher profile job opportunities come up. Probably for good reason.


clowncar said:
Not quite the fanboy you are on Graham but he was fairly confident in this team heading into the year and he will rally the troops for this big game I think. Pretty humiliating final score to have your fans looking at as they walk out of the stadium ...
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clowncar said:
And a better QB to deliver it (Even if one thinks Rosen may be better than Kessler some day, he isn't close to as good yet).
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There is of course the experience edge...

But I think Kessler gets a helluva lot of traction throwing short passes to those freak show wr's and letting them do the dirty work.

Kessler's #'s aren't quite as good against legit defenses and when getting blitzed...so much for ASU's attacking defense in that regard. When that blitzing ASU linebacker came right up the middle and had a free shot of Kessler...and missed. That was pretty sad because Kessler isn't really all that nimble.
 
I think it can have relevance but just not in these particular games, IMO.

Maybe I need to re-watch them but it's not like Zona or ASU played 'well' and simply kept stubbing their foot. Both Zona and ASU gifted a few fumbles but also made some bad throws for int's which are simply part of who they are. USC also gifted ASU on the first drive of both halves which probably took 14 points off their total score. IIRC, both ASU fg's were long'ish attempts.

When USC was up 14-0 my friend commented to me that this game should really be out of hand by now. But that's also part of who SC is....not maximizing talent. But it felt like it was only a matter of time before the dam broke whether it was first half or 2nd half.

For the record, I don't think UCLA is some amazing team and I will look for opportunities to fade them (particularly against Stan) but right now I'm all about fading the Arizona schools which I feel are coasting on some very undeserved reputations.

lindetrain said:
Don't you think it's relevant to determine how/why both games were over at halftime? Zona and UCLA were virtually even in yardage, but the Cats did themselves in with two fumbles inside their own 30 and an INT that led to the Bruins going up 28. ASU missed two FGs and had four TOs, including the back-breaking 100 yard scoop and score when they had a chance to cut it to 21-7. To be honest, it's pretty incredible that both losing teams had 250+ yards offense in the first half and trailed by 28+.
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phife said:
There is of course the experience edge...

But I think Kessler gets a helluva lot of traction throwing short passes to those freak show wr's and letting them do the dirty work.

Kessler's #'s aren't quite as good against legit defenses and when getting blitzed...so much for ASU's attacking defense in that regard. When that blitzing ASU linebacker came right up the middle and had a free shot of Kessler...and missed. That was pretty sad because Kessler isn't really all that nimble.
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Ya I did not watch the game and this is the second reference I have heard regarding the ASU tackling in that game.
 
clowncar said:
Remember last year when they would put up Ga Southern and then take all kinds of Ga Southern money and the players were winning. California seems to be that darling this year and the books better wise up to how they are lining their games because they have every type of support imaginable. The sharp early players like them, the pseudo-cappers (people like most of us) like them, and the general public likes them. They are going to have to bump their rating of this team to get anywhere close to even action on a Cal game where they are not playing one of the pac12 big boys.
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You must not have paid much attention to what happened to the market in the Cal/Washington game last week. I'd imagine they were almost every book's biggest win.
 
lindetrain said:
You must not have paid much attention to what happened to the market in the Cal/Washington game last week. I'd imagine they were almost every book's biggest win.
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Certainly in the discussion. Sharpies would not stop betting UW that's for sure. Counting Sunday and all the shotguns pointed at the bookmakers' foreheads tonight, I'd say that the UW/Cal game might have been the ONLY win this weekend for some.
 
My mistake, I missed the late move to Wash last week. Cal took the early money .. obviously wash took more money with that kind of layer week movement. Still applies to the other weeks though there was some late fade of cal at texas too I think
 
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