time to post my week 5 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9
week 3 14-10-1, 2.9, 5.8
week 4 12-6-1, 5.35, 11.15overall 60-44-3, 11.15, 57.7%


Last week's losers discussed post #3


Locked In:

#180 Miami -5 +100 grade A+
#175 Texas -14 Grade B
#131 Iowa -12 Grade B-
#159 Rice -10 Grade B+
#173 Stanford -6 Grade A
#149 UTEP +30 PUSH F
#121 USF +33 Grade A+
#135 northwestern +11.5 Grade A+
#107/#108 UCLA/ASU under 59.5 loser grade F-
#131/#132 Iowa/Purdue over 46 loser D
#199/#200 NMSU/LSU over 54.5 Grade A+
#153 Bowling Green -4 Grade C
#135/#136 NW/PSU under 45.5 Grade A+
#111/#112 FresnoSt/UNM under 73 Grade C-
#126 VT -21 Grade C
2H Fresno State -6 Grade A
2H Fresno State/UNM Over 34 Grade B
2H Umass +3 Grade C+
201/202 Illinois/Nebraska over 61 Grade B

Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9
week 3 14-10-1, 2.9, 5.8
week 4 12-6-1, 5.35, 11.15
week 5 13-5-1
73-49-4 59.8%

Strong Leans:


Northwestern +10.5 ( the over valuing of Penn State has now reached a new level ) added to plays at 11.5
Terps +3 ( Can score right with Indiana .. backdoor offense vs backdoor defense if down late too - just gonna take over and collect probably )
Tulsa -5 ( back to back roadies and texas st left it all on the field last week while Tulsa was off a bye ... sort of a line in the sand game for Tulsa as their schedule doesn't line up well for them ) Eliminated from plays upon further examination of matchup


Talk Me Off Leans:

Okie Lite -14 ( tough spot to break in new DC ) eliminated from plays, pr problem
Clemson -12.5 ( hate spot for Clemson but UNC playing horrid ) eliminated from plays, lost number

Bowling Green -10 ( Not like it is asking much )
Oregon St 10.5
unlv +17 ( I am a homer )
 
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Thanks Troy


Tulane +18 -- I have no problem with this bet and would make it again in a heartbeat. I posted the box score in the misleading finals thread. Tulane moved the ball well and played decent defense for most of the game but they just didn't value the football from the QB position and the turnovers just killed them. They also had some key penalties. There was a point at the start of the fourth quarter that I joked with a couple of people that Tulane was gonna lose by 20+ despite outplaying Duke ... they actually lost by 34 but hard to say they outplayed the devils after the 4th. In any event .... they cover there a vast majority of the time in my estimation. Can't complain as I think I netted out ok on misleading finals for the week.

UNC +3 -- This was a case of eyes vs my numbers and I took my numbers. UNC gave up a billion yards and 70 points. They can't tackle anyone and their escape against SDSU earlier in the year now looks like it wasn't just a bad game. There is something wrong with that defense... it isn't attacking the way the good unc defenses of the past would. I am sure I have made worse bets over the years but this ranks up there as just a really bad one. ECU looking like a legit team.

sbama -1.5 -- Got steamed the other way and then Ga Southern dominated them. Misread on my part and in retrospect, maybe I haven't been gradually raising the Ga Southern PR quite fast enough. I wasn't surprised by them as I had them twice vs acc opponents prior to this but ... just got it wrong.

usm -4 -- Let me start by saying that usm was the wrong side. What makes me a bit angry is that i do a good job of getting decent numbers in most games and i got a really bad one here at/near open. I haven't had too many games that went against me over the first month of the season but have a couple losses now where when i do have the bad number it effects my results. While the wrong side, USM had about 7 or 8 chances to put Appy State away and win by 7 or more but could never make the play. They scored a TD to go up 14 in the fourth and had it called back on offensive pass interference and a play or two later had a guy wide, wide, wide open on a trick play and it was just underthrown. They then had about three PI's on Appy's last drive ... and allowed a fourth and long conversion where knees would result for them. They scored the covering TD with 6 seconds left. At least we would have overtime to cover ... nope ... appy missed the extra pt. .... I am not mad at losing the bet because i capped it badly and Appy deserved the money ... but to lose the way i did at the end hurt and the bad number was just salt on the wound.

Bama/Florida under -- When espn talking heads kept saying the game would be 13-10 , 17-14, 21-6 etc etc .. i almost wanted to buy off as they are always wrong. Basically misjudged the Florida defense and Bama's ball security. Watching it early i thought it was a bunch of bullcrap how the game was progressing with the blown coverages ( 3 for TD in the first half ) , turnovers and horrific overall level of play ... but by the end of the game realized Bama just dominated that Gator defense and my investment and take on the game was just wrong.

Ville/FIU over -- Game was played in not light rain but a strong downpour so hard to evaluate it. I wanted off the game before it started based on forecast but the line move against me made it impossible. Watched with my two eyes and think it was an under had it been sunny too. Anyway .. took the 2h under so at least only lost a little juice here.

There were a couple games i won which i am not sure i deserved ( terps comes to mind ) but overall happy with yesterday especially since i really didn't like that card as much as most and just wanted to escape the day.
 
Money pouring in on Duke .. i will likely end up double dipping if it keeps dropping. Maybe my favorite play thus far this year ( Of course Illinois at Washington was my previous favorite play ).
 
Love the Texas play. Feel like I have a pretty good handle on the team. Swoopes with a bye week to get more comfortable with the offense. Strong will have them focused and with a lot urgency to get a W, against a really bad team.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Love the Texas play. Feel like I have a pretty good handle on the team. Swoopes with a bye week to get more comfortable with the offense. Strong will have them focused and with a lot urgency to get a W, against a really bad team.
Click to expand...

Pretty much my thoughts in a nutshell. The Kansas QB is the worst kind of awful imaginable. Texas D will eat them alive. Assuming Texas doesn't fall over themselves with turnovers and penalties they should win handily.
 
I can describe the Iowa play in a word: Tackling.

One team does it, the other team does not.
 
Rice is a feel play for me and I think you have a case where one team had a misleading final to the negative ( sort of ) and one team had a misleading final to the positive. USM was outplayed by App St which I detailed above in post 3 ... despite App St being as inept as they possibly could be. Meanwhile, Rice played without Jackson most of the first half after he hurt his non-throwing shoulder which allowed ODU to build a lead when the backup was unable to make key plays. And Rice goes from facing one of the best QB's in college football who was making perfect passes all day long to facing a soph QB who is .... well .... not that good right now. Rice sitting 0-3 after the ODU loss will be very hungry and get a class drop here ... off of notre dame, tamu and odu offenses to what usm brings to the table. A loss here and Rice can forget about bowling this year most likely with a half decent team ... 0-4 with 8 left with one of those being Marshall would be a tall task. So I am pretty sure Rice comes with a top notch effort instead of what usm tends to face these days which are teams taking a week off mentally
 
Miami is largely a Duke fade. I have been following their team and they are not good. Don't let those scores fool you. 92nd rated rush defense after facing elon, troy, Kansas and Tulane. Their offensive production has basically been a few big plays in each game. They have no consistency to the running game, and the receivers as of yet haven't been able to get separation. I think the loss of the OC has really effected this team. I would probably make last years version of Duke a DD favorite over this years version. It will become very apparent soon what Duke really is this year and I am going to try and take advantage while I can. I think yesterdays Tulane at Duke game was possibly the most deceiving final score of the weekend. Miami out gained and out first downed Duke in defeat last year with half their team on the injury list, including Duke Johnson. He is going to have a big day against the devils. Miami has been facing quality competition on the road like Ville when Petrino returned, and Nebraska at their barn.... while Duke has played dogpoop in their own stadium. Well .. now Miami gets to play the devils in a revenge situation in their own building. Where the hell do I sign up? oh ya ... at the betting window.
 
Sticking with both of my themes for the week ... deceiving teams/box scores and road chalk. I know what you really are, Washington. You won't be able to fool many after next weekend.
 
Anyway .. besides my belief that Washington is not very good relative to what market thinks of them, I also like the idea of backing Stanford off of a bye sitting at 0-1 in the Pac-12. How disappointing and derailed would their season be if they dropped this game?

I guess this is a week where I am backing some situations I like more than normal.
 
#149 UTEP +30

Basically see a game where both teams run the ball a lot ... kstate will have a lot more success but UTEP is playing well ( for them ) and the combination of both teams running should make for fewer possessions. Kstate off a mega-disappointment has to have some hangover here and cant possibly get up for a game against utep that is sandwiched between Auburn and Texas Tech. If they come out right and utep doesn't show then it will get pretty ugly pretty fast but I doubt it will be a rocking stadium for the morning game in Manhattan compared to weeknight against Auburn. Just get through the game should be their goal....
 
GL my man. I've only glanced at the card, and you have a lot of the games I am really liking after glancing. Stanford stuck out in a big way to me. Among others.

I really enjoy the thoughts you're bringing. Keep up the good work
 
GL Mate,but fuck me,watched em again yesterday,rebs are so fucking bad ,especially on defense,please check the status on #81 before pulling any triggers,got shutout 1st half and left after a catch 2nd never to return.I couldnt bet them again...I know line dictates but jeez you gotta see that defense to believe it.... over didnt hit cause cougs had the backups in and went for it on 4th down late in FG range to give them exp I guess.Before this week Houston had no run game whatsoever,but rebs D fixes them problems,some guy running like Barry Sanders all of a sudden.
Great week just gone :shake:
 
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The concern is Rice is really beat up, especially defensively. And the QB is obviously injured as well.

I lean Rice, but they give me some hesitation
 
Miami and Duke are next up for GT. I will be paying close attention. Still don't have a feel for Miami qb. You are so correct on quality of competition. I am with you. If they win big maybe make gt +3 next week. Great weekend. GL this week.

-3.5 now you weren't kidding about the money. Interesting.
 
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Great thoughts as usual, but I would caution you on Northwestern. I agree that Penn State is overrated, but I would just wait for a better spot to fade Penn State because the Cats are just terrible this year. They can't score. There are zero playmakers on that offense. Siemian was passable as a change of pace guy with Colter but it's obvious he can't carry the mail. Mark and the two Jones boys at WR were the only athletes they had on offense, and all 3 are gone as a result of injury or dismissal. They managed 293 yards against the mighty Leathernecks this week, and Siemian only totalled 117 yards on 15 completions. In the past, Fitz has been a very good play as a road dog, but in the past he had some semblance of offensive talent. He has absolutely none now. They simply can't score.

Defensively, they've never been any great shakes, especially against the pass. Hackenberg should have his way, I would imagine.
 
You make some good points .. perhaps an under look is a better way to approach it ... even as bad as the offense has looked, NW is only giving up 20.3 pts per game and Cal and NIU aren't fodder. Assumed preseason before the decimation of their union errr team .. that they would be a favorite in this game and while that team isn't on the field and PSU is rightly favored ... getting DD is just hard for me to pass on. Even adjusted pr has this way lower... For all my situational plays this week .. NW is the one where my numbers say to play the game.

Incidentally ... numbers tightened again this week. Finding early value gets tougher and tougher and tougher.
 
That NCSU game at USF is the elephant in the room for me with USF ... that game they just got rolled on both sides of the ball and that obviously means Wisconsin would be capable of doing it. Tough travel from southern florida to Wisconsin as well, ..... 33 .. just so many ...... I didn't see the ncsu game .. I did see the terp game and the UConn game and the bulls defensive line was really effective in both games and was really physical in both games .. which you need when you play against Wisconsin. Not sure the offense has progressed enough ..... again .. it might be a better under oppo than dog oppo if usf cant score ... since Wisconsin could explode. But Wisconsin starts conference play the week following and not saying they would look ahead to nw but they might look past usf and for usf it might be their "super bowl" of the season in some respects. I know this is the right play ... why am I hesitating?
 
This is unlike you Kyle, you are taking some terrible defensive teams. Jmo. The YPP are staggering on some of these d's. Not on or against any..BOL.
 
Hehe .. ya Rice is dead last in cfb when I was looking at it today .. but thoughts to follow
 
Hunt ...

I guess I am forgiving Rice for their YPP defense because of the offenses they played ... and I watched the ODU game with a bet on the total and watched the usm game with a bet on a side ... and I just don't see Mullens making those throws .... I mean Everett Golson is probably the worst QB they have faced this season unless you think he is better than Kenny Trill. And southern miss is near the bottom of the barrel themselves offensively in YPP. Just think it is a different set up for Rice.

A bigger concern with UTEP, I think, and KSU may be really focused on finishing off drives with TD's since they let opportunities pass by them in the Auburn game. But I like how the possession number should be shortened for the game and I think UTEP can score.

The other four teams I backed are #3, #10, #19 and #69 in YPP Defense so I assume you are talking about Tulsa and unlv in the leans lists ... and I have already developed some souring with Tulsa because their bad rush D doesn't match up well against the Texas St rushing offense.
 
HUNT said:
All good..just know YPP is one of your staples..at least in the past.
Click to expand...


It absolutely is.... especially by the time we reach bowl season. Right now, I have to adjust a lot for opponents faced because of the sample size ... so more subjective manipulation of the data early compared to late.... for better or worse, I guess.
 
clowncar said:
I know what you really are, Washington. You won't be able to fool many after next weekend.
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more......would take a huge effort and luck for UW to get this game/cover..betting Stanford with both hands
 
Terps D has been an atrocity .. and if it wasn't then taking Maryland would be easy. Just see those two teams almost as mirrors of eachother now ... can score on most teams and will get scored on by most teams.
 
jimmymo said:
Couldn't agree more......would take a huge effort and luck for UW to get this game/cover..betting Stanford with both hands
Click to expand...

ahhhhhh was hoping you would chime in, Jimmy. Glad it is in agreement since I know you know that team like the back of your hand.
 
I've backed Terps three times now and this would be the fourth .... gonna go on a limb and say I had them over rated preseason ... and even after adjusting down quite a bit, still have them over rated vs market. UNC, S Carolina, Maryland, UCLA and Florida ( again .. .. I fall for it every year ) are probably the teams I over rated the most (Texas/northwestern I will give myself a pass on since they just got incredibly banged/suspended up).
 
Yeah I meant mostly the lean list..trying to talk you off lol.

It's scary going against a horrible rushing defense like UTEP though..I was thinking of taking the Kstate tt over but we both know those possessions are hard to come by...although they might run right through them. UTEP is 117 against the rush...it is a young season for sure but teams are in a way who they are after 4 games.
 
clowncar said:
Terps D has been an atrocity .. and if it wasn't then taking Maryland would be easy. Just see those two teams almost as mirrors of eachother now ... can score on most teams and will get scored on by most teams.
Click to expand...

Very true..Coleman might go for 300 against the terps.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Love the Texas play. Feel like I have a pretty good handle on the team. Swoopes with a bye week to get more comfortable with the offense. Strong will have them focused and with a lot urgency to get a W, against a really bad team.
Click to expand...

I agree. I'm all over the Longhorns. Bought it down to 13.5 just in case.

I think Texas releases a lot of frustrations on "The Planet" this week. This one has blowout written all over it.
 
clowncar said:
Riddle ...


How do you kill a Wildcat?


Answer: You Tep on it.
Click to expand...

4522650148_Annoyed_Smiley_by_Halloween_CAT_xlarge_answer_5_xlarge.png
 
clowncar said:
That NCSU game at USF is the elephant in the room for me with USF ... that game they just got rolled on both sides of the ball and that obviously means Wisconsin would be capable of doing it. Tough travel from southern florida to Wisconsin as well, ..... 33 .. just so many ...... I didn't see the ncsu game .. I did see the terp game and the UConn game and the bulls defensive line was really effective in both games and was really physical in both games .. which you need when you play against Wisconsin. Not sure the offense has progressed enough ..... again .. it might be a better under oppo than dog oppo if usf cant score ... since Wisconsin could explode. But Wisconsin starts conference play the week following and not saying they would look ahead to nw but they might look past usf and for usf it might be their "super bowl" of the season in some respects. I know this is the right play ... why am I hesitating?
Click to expand...

I played USF pretty large. Love them in this spot for the reasons you mentioned. Wisconsin is all run, and I think USF matches up pretty well with them in trenches. The question is can USF score??? I think 13-17 points is probably enough to keep this within the number.
 
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Went ahead and did the inevitable .. there is no way I can pass on a game where the numbers and situation line up. Something very scary about it but I have to assume it goes down from here.

Add

#121 USF +33
 
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