time to post my week 4 card so far

[Silkydiamonds]

ADD Arizona State +7.5

Really like that one, still stewing on it myself.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

hehe maybe so. Market certainly respects it. RAS releases get some push back of course at the new numbers but a lot of guys just prefer to not get in the way of their opinion ( guys betting large too ). Probably less so in cfb than cbb but I am not the only one who would rather be with than against.

Where are you going for injury info? I always use College Injury Report, but that site indicates they are down for the year.

 

[RetroVK]

Don Best
People I cap with
I pretty much hit all the blogs and team pages and news articles as best I can, especially when interested in something.

Any idea who CIR was affiliated with?

 

[RetroVK]

There is another cause for my concern with them against Ark st and that is their history of betting when that program is involved. They obviously get good information about that particular football team.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

Don Best
People I cap with
I pretty much hit all the blogs and team pages and news articles as best I can, especially when interested in something.

Any idea who CIR was affiliated with?

RAS I believe.

 

[E.T.G.]

so lets talk ASU @ Stanford.

 

[RetroVK]

Arkansas State Redwolves (2-1) at Memphis Tigers ( 0-2 )

Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis Tennessee ( 1hour+ drive from Jonesboro, Arkansas )

2012 Game : Memphis 28 Arkansas State 33

Head Coaches: Memphis Justin Fuente , Arkansas State BryanHarsin ( jury still out on both )

Let’s get right to it ….

Last Year’s Game:
Well the first thing we need to address is last years game in the context of where the two teams are now. We already know that I like the Arkansas State but on face value you might wonder why when they beat Memphis at home by just 5 last year when they played early in the season. Memphis got better as the season progressed and the 2013 version is better than the 2012 version. Arkansas State has since lost Ryan Aplin who was a stud at QB for them and is clearly down year over year from 2012 to 2013. But the score doesn’t tell the whole story there. Here is the box score:
<o>[TABLE="class: MsoNormalTable"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]MEM<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]ARST<o></o
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]1st Downs<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

13<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

33<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Total Yards<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

293<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

619<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Passing<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

154<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

302<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Rushing<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

139<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

317<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Penalties<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

4-30<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

4-32<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]3rd Down Conversions<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

3-12<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

8-17<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]4th Down Conversions<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

0-0<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

1-2<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Turnovers<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

0<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

1<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Possession<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

27:12<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

32:48<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
<o><o>That box score is not a typographical error. They had 20 more first downs and more than doubled Memphis in yardage while amassing over 600 yards with a balanced attack. Obviously you are left wondering how Memphis kept that game so close and the answer was special teams and field position. Arkansas State was pinned back inside their own twenty to start drives all game long. Two of the Memphis scores came via the SpecialTeams … a fumbled punt return that was returned for a TD by the Tigers and ablocked punt recovered in the end zone for another TD by the Tigers. Add in a missed fg for Arkansas State aswell. Now I do want to emphasize that I do think Memphis has improved since this game but this box score is just something that CANNOT be ignored…. The drop off from Aplin to Kennedy just isn’t that big and I have now watched Kennedy play at Utah State and two weeks this year at Auburn and Home to Troy. Oku looks good and he torched Memphis a year ago. Also of note, last year’s game was a horrific spot for Arkansas State as it was sandwiched between games against Oregon and Nebraska. That isn’t a sandwich game it is a hero’s sandwich game.

Spot:
I handicapped the Troy at Arkansas State game and then looked at it again with one of the guys I like to handicap with the last few years. We both agreed that Troy was the play by the end of the conversation and I was completely sold on the over. Unfortunately for me, the line dropped dramatically in that game by the next morning and I was shut out from the side but did get in on the over at least. But why I bring that game up is because of the spot … Arkansas State had just come off an emotional game against their former coach, on the road at an SEC venue. They fought hard and played decently in that game…but they then had a short week to prepare for Troy on a Thursday night. Moreover, Troy matches up particularly well against Arkansas State because the one clear weakness for the Red Wolves appears to be the secondary and Troy just tosses the pigskin around with Robinson. Troy amassed over500 yards in their game last year because of their style of offense as well. It was just a combination of bad matchup coupled with a bad spot and as a result they were outplayed by Troy ( imo ). They managed to win that game anyway and I do give them some credit for that. But here we are in a different situation…. Arkansas State is now coming off a Thursday night game with EXTRA time to prepare, Memphis is the team coming off an emotional loss and the Memphis offense simply cannot do what the Troy offense can do which I will get to momentarily. I am not the best “spot” capper or motivational capper you will find and quite frankly I don’t find many folks who are adept at it consistently but I think any person can see a major difference between this spot and the one Arkansas State faced last week. And the biggest elephant in the room here? The line from last year….. Arkansas State was a 24 point favorite in this matchup a year ago … the box score from that game shows it was clearly warranted and now we have a six point field flip ( generous ) .. … meaning there is a two TD difference between how this game is currently lined and how it was lined last year. That is a big difference.


When Arkansas State has the Ball:

Hard to not start with the running game. Arkansas State has big play potential withGordon and Oku and Kennedy is certainly capable of keeping it on occasion. They were 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] in rushing last year and probably will finish in that same neighborhood this year though Ithink they are less potent. Currently in the top ten in rushing in 2013 but that is skewed by getting over 500 against a weakling week 1. What the Red Wolves do possess in my estimation is relatively good balance. Kennedy has completed 58 of 87 for 703 yards to start the year and played well on the road once already at Auburn. The team is capable of getting into good down and distance … capable of moving it on most teams in football right now. I am not saying that I expect Arkansas Stateto put up 600+ yards again against a Memphis team that is clearly better than the team they played last year but they are certainly the biggest test for theTiger defense to date. Memphis has faced MTSU and Duke … two teams who are down offensively year over year .. especially duke. It is apparent that Renfree was ahuge loss for the Devils and they are nowhere near the potent attack they were a year ago. Yet they still managed thisbox score ..<o></o
<o>[TABLE="class: MsoNormalTable"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]DUKE<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]MEM<o></o
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]1st Downs<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

25<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

12<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Total Yards<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

470<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

237<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Passing<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

297<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

148<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Rushing<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

173<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

89<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Penalties<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

6-52<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

5-60<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]3rd Down Conversions<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

10-18<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

2-13<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]4th Down Conversions<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

1-2<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

0-4<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Turnovers<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

3<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

2<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Possession<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

34:43<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

25:17<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
<o>Here is the MTSU boxer ..<o></o
<o>[TABLE="class: MsoNormalTable"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]MEM<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]MTU<o></o
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]1st Downs<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

17<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

20<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]3rd down efficiency<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

8-20<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

6-14<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]4th down efficiency<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

1-1<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

0-0<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Total Yards<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

350<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

284<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Passing<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

170<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

224<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Comp-Att<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

19-30<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

22-36<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Yards per pass<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

5.7<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

6.2<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Rushing<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

180<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

60<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Rushing Attempts<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

46<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

28<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Yards per rush<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

3.9<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

2.1<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Penalties<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

15-145<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

3-30<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Turnovers<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

2<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

1<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Fumbles lost<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

0<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

0<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Interceptions thrown<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

2<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

1<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Possession<o></o
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

34:41<o></o​

[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]

25:1<o></o​

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
<o><o>You can see they stuffed the run pretty good against MTSU but that team also failed to score in the first half against UNC and managed just 13 offensive points in that game …. With a TD coming in the last minute of a blowout loss. It is marked improvement over last years game against MTSU though. I think this matchup is a much bigger challenge for the Memphis defense than either Duke or MTSU.


When Memphis has the Ball:

Memphis is currently 117[SUP]th[/SUP] or so in the nation onoffense and has rushed 79 times and passed 54 times. They had some success running the ballagainst MTSU ( but even there averaged less than 4 a carry ) but little success doing so against Duke. They have a Redshirt Freshman at QB who has been throwing short a lot .. which has led to a good completion percentage but an abysmal average per attempt of 5.9 yards. If you are succeeding with what you are trying to do … that is completing 3 of every 5 passes and are still struggling to score the ball oraverage decent yards per pass attempt then you are just not very good yet at throwing the ball. While Arkansas State gave up a few big chunk plays and a lot of yards against Auburn, their defensehas been good against the run in their other two efforts ( Troy just passed itall over them ) and in 2012 they held about 6 opponents to under 100 yards per game rushing. Their weakness is thesecondary but Memphis doesn’t seem to have either the big play capability northe consistency ( third downs 30.3% ) to match scores with the Red Wolves.

I pretty much see a game where I am getting line value year over year, in a game where the combined yardage from 2011 and 2012 between these teams was a combined 1230 to 462. Now you are looking at less than a TD … that is just too much improvement to expect from this Memphis club and too much regression to expect from this Arkansas State Club. In fact, at current line you aren't asking them to necessarily win but most cases where teams cover such a spread they do win.

A little tired of typing so shutting it down but the fgkicking looks about the same for the game. Incidentally, Ark St was a DD favorite to MTSU to end last year and beatthem 45-0.<o></o
I took Ark St at a worse number than currentlyavailable </o</o</o</o</o</o</o</o

 

[RetroVK]

Sorry about formatting

 

[bull]

VK - I love it when Grade B games like this get a lot of attention.

Thanks for the great analysis.

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Felt really good to read this! Thanks bro

 

[HammersSpreads]

Very impressive VK. Awesome write up. These are the reasons why this site is spot on. Very helpful

 

[twinkie13]

Nice writeup VK

 

[ManchesterUk]

Kyle I really appreciate that.Thank you View attachment 32686

 

[Marlo]

Get it this week Kyle from Vegas

 

[RetroVK]

I highly highly disagree with this one, both teams will score at will and most likely only need 1 or 2 td's to hit 70 in the second half. I'm extremly curious how you see it playing out under 68...Thanks Kyle, GL this week.

Early in the year I am largely a "prove it" guy. Teams combined for just over 600 yards and 41 FD last year while hitting 30 points. BSU off a 27 of 29 effort from southwick ( not high on personally ) while holding afa to 287 yards and just manage to get to 42 points in a game where they don't punt. BSU defensive weakness appears to be rushing defense and fresno has not run well to start the year. I am really high on Washington right now, so I find that result forgivable for broncos as well and continuing with the "prove it" theme, the 38 allowed to Washington is just the second time since 2007 where they have given up over 35 in a game and it came in the context of struggling on offense ( 3.8 per pass and 4.1 per rush ). Now I realize fresno shut down a bit offensively 2h with a 34-0 lead against poly at HT but two of those td were punt returns and 23 fd and 370 yards in that spot just don't impress me. I think Fresno D is on par with afa D overall but just don't imagine that boise state can execute at that level in a crazy road atmosphere on a Friday night the way they did at home. Also if you look over fresno st offensively a lot of their gaudy numbers are against lesser defenses. Sure the bsu defense is way down but seems hard to expect 36 or more as a given. See more of a 31-28 type of game and maybe even a boise punt.

 

[RetroVK]

bsu did have a couple turnovers deep last week or they score more.

 

[RetroVK]

Also tend to feel that a total this high falls into two categories ... the expect both to go nuts category or the expect 1 team to get to the high forties to mid fifties category ... personally just don't se either of those scenarios .. obviously the game turns into a nightmare if one of the teams gets a biggish lead early but as long as it is competitive early, it should be fine. I largely look under in big conference games as a general rule anyway over the years .. ... though cfb a lot more fast paced pass oriented these days.

 

[Gyno]

I'm adding Arkansas state to my card..

 

[RetroVK]

Add 3 team 10pt teaser 1.2/1

Clemson -3.5
Kansas -0.5
ball state -0.5


don't do these often but found this one appealing

 

[bloodhound]

Add 3 team 10pt teaser 1.2/1 Clemson -3.5 Kansas -0.5 ball state -0.5 don't do these often but found this one appealing

like this teaser



BOL on them all this wk VK

 

[Marsski]

Like Marshall catching double digits; good luck this week VK

 

[xyzky]

Early in the year I am largely a "prove it" guy. Teams combined for just over 600 yards and 41 FD last year while hitting 30 points. BSU off a 27 of 29 effort from southwick ( not high on personally ) while holding afa to 287 yards and just manage to get to 42 points in a game where they don't punt. BSU defensive weakness appears to be rushing defense and fresno has not run well to start the year. I am really high on Washington right now, so I find that result forgivable for broncos as well and continuing with the "prove it" theme, the 38 allowed to Washington is just the second time since 2007 where they have given up over 35 in a game and it came in the context of struggling on offense ( 3.8 per pass and 4.1 per rush ). Now I realize fresno shut down a bit offensively 2h with a 34-0 lead against poly at HT but two of those td were punt returns and 23 fd and 370 yards in that spot just don't impress me. I think Fresno D is on par with afa D overall but just don't imagine that boise state can execute at that level in a crazy road atmosphere on a Friday night the way they did at home. Also if you look over fresno st offensively a lot of their gaudy numbers are against lesser defenses. Sure the bsu defense is way down but seems hard to expect 36 or more as a given. See more of a 31-28 type of game and maybe even a boise punt.

:shake:

 

[dilaudid8]

vk bol this week

 

[HammersSpreads]

Hey VK, nice thread.

Lets discuss the Stanford/ASU game if you have time.
Im leaning heavy on Stanford here, as I think it's a miserable spot for ASU, coming off a very tight game with a very physical team in Wisconsin. Stanford is even more physical, and has a better defense then Whiskey, so I think ASU could be in trouble here, especially come the 2nd half. Moreover, Stanford hasn't been tested much yet, so that can be a positive or a negative I suppose.

Interested to see what your take is

 

[RetroVK]

ETG and Hammer:

First off .. I get that Wisconsin game was emotionally and physically grueling and that could have an impact the second half of the fourth quarter if Stanford is trying to get one or two first downs to stop the backdoor and end the game. But I am actually looking at that Wisconsin game as a huge advantage ASU. Wisconsin and Stanford are very similar in philosophy to the point where I am not sure you could hand pick a better opponent to prepare you for the Tree the next week. Arizona State and Stanford are high in most folks power ratings and in their respective positions largely on speculation ( Hogan will make the difference for Stanford to go along with their power game and strong D and that the 2nd year of Graham along with a strong defensive line will get ASU over the hump ). The jury is still out on Stanford with this being their first test of the year but ASU passed the Wisconsin test.. and while they were fortunate to win the game after the horrific blown call in Tempe last week, but to be fair they were the better team on the field .. the botched punt for a TD for Wisconsin and the fake punt for a first down for Wisconsin both factored in big in that game .. ASU outgained them and had a 32-15 FD edge. I realize you cannot remove plays from a football game .. big plays matter .. but if you remove the 80 yard td run from that game ( hold on Abbrederis by the way ) then you have held Wisconsin to 151 yards rushing for that game. Again .. you can't really take that play away but it shows that ASU might be more competent against the run than the actual bulk numbers show.

Stanford played a slightly tougher schedule than ASU last year but they played many common opponents... ASU ended the year +1479 in yardage .. Stanford finished +535. Stanford won four games where they were outgained and took another game where they were outgained to overtime. While this shows they are a smart football team, probably well coached, and know how to win .. and probably shows that their physical style plays well in the fourth qtr of a finesse conference, it also shows that Stanford was not a legit 12-2 last year. They ended the year in the bowl game against Wisconsin where they were the better team but certainly no better looking against Wisconsin than ASU was the other day. Stanford wins close games. 2012 beat sjsu by 3, usc 7, wsu 7, orst 4, Oregon 3 ot, ucla 3. There really isn't much recent history of them blowing out quality opponents by DD.

And then when you look at where Stanford was defensively vulnerable it was against teams that spread you out and toss it around ... Stanford gave up an average of 336 yards per game last year but if you break it down and look at the teams who could spread them out and pass it around you find some yards .. duke 358 passing, Arizona 491 passing, wash st 403 passing .... so it would appear that if you are to attack the Stanford defense it is best to have a competent passing game which ASU has.

Stanford has not exactly lit the world on fire but I doubt they have been that excited to play either .. ... and I am sure they have spent considerable prep time on ASU considering it is their only big game ( sjsu is a rivalry blah blah blah ) of the month of September. So I am not selling Stanford short because they underachieved the first two games.

Once again, I just want Stanford to prove it ... and even if they do prove it ... ASU has a great backdoor offense to crawl in there for the cover ... I mean are we really expecting Stanford up 17 late with ASU not having a chance to backdoor ??? Stanford just ain't scoring enough for that to be a common scenario.

 

[J Galt]

BOL Kyle, against you on a couple, which is a good sign for you

 

[jdoggoakley]

VK,
BOL this week - I know you'll get back in the black (probably this week). Question for you: Any idea what's going on with your Alma Mater? At home against UT-SA. First line I saw on Monday was PK. Yesterday, it moves to UTEP -1. Now, it moves the other way to UTSA -3ev? Injuries?
J

 

[RetroVK]

RB Nathan Jeffery sprained his ankle I think and is likely a no go this week ... not sure if that is the reason but Kugler all about the run so maybe that is being factored in more. Shrug .. not sure what is going on there ... UTEP is banged up all over the defense but nothing really new there other than the DE and I am pretty sure he is playing Saturday. My UTEP future can't afford home losses to UTSA. History on my side as far as getting back to even at some point but it is an uphill battle when I am capping this bad... though hard to argue with the bets when I have crushed the line like a swatter to a fly. I mean keep in mind that my numbers are better than what I post in these threads so my EV has been insanely good .. probably my best through three weeks ( but more active too ).

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Like arky st as well. Honestly undecided about utah st & usc. And understand, but good health with, ASU.

In any case, BOL bud. Considering all the work you put in, it'll pay off in the end.

 

[Jimmydafreak]

With respect to the ASU/Memphis game, I jumped on -6 early Monday morning. In my opinion, the only way Memphis keeps this under a TD is to turn this into a sloppy defensive shitfest. If ASU gets into the 30s, or God forbid the 40s, I have a hard time believing Memphis' dreadful offense will keep pace.

I further note that the line in this game has followed the same trajectory as the Duke/Memphis game. Memphis started out at +7 (or better), and the touts hit Memphis hard and brought the line all the way down to 3.5 at kickoff. Admittedly I liked Memphis at +7 myself, but backed off of the play when the value got sucked out by the touts. Of course we both know that Duke ended up covered easily, and that the game really wasn't as close as the score indicates. I just find it interesting that the line in this game (now 3.5) has followed the exact same trajectory as the line in the Duke/Memphis game.

Of course I wish I had ASU @ -3.5 as opposed to -6, but I still feel pretty comfortable in my ASU -6 play and am not going to allow this line move to spook me off the play.

Best of luck this weekend Kyle!!!

:shake:

 

[Gyno]

Just about everyone I respect is on Utah State, thats what is keeping me off USC.. I think trojans win/cover but I'm not going to get into peoples way that I truly respect. I must be missing something.. I like USU a lot, love their QB but its still on the road..

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Just about everyone I respect is on Utah State, thats what is keeping me off USC.. I think trojans win/cover but I'm not going to get into peoples way that I truly respect. I must be missing something.. I like USU a lot, love their QB but its still on the road..

i concur...not to mention this is quite a step up in the level of athletes they'll be facing here.

 

[RetroVK]

Obviously if USC plays to their talent is a bad bet. No argument there. .... but I have yet to see many signs of them playing to their talent. Beating up on a bad BC team travelling across the country doesn't impress me much. Not sure Utah State is all that outclassed .. I mean they did go to Wisconsin and outplay the badgers last year ...at byu and lost by 3 and have outplayed Utah in back to back seasons. Better coach by default, Better QB, and gonna guess way more heart here. USC maybe puts it all together and if they do ... well Utah state backers are done because Trojans just have the better athletes. Admit this is me believing my lying eyes ( which seem to show Utah state is every bit as good as usc ). But ya .. wont be shocked if Utah state fails.

Utah State pretty tough to run the ball on and if Kessler can outduel Keeton then so be it. Won't hold Utah state to 12 fd and 184 yards to wear out the opposing defense like with BC. Utah State secondary can be had though. We shall see ... doubt it's a blowout though.

 

[RetroVK]

For USU QB this is the "nfl scouts" game too.

 

[s--k]

Arkansas State Redwolves (2-1) at Memphis Tigers ( 0-2 )
.
.
.

Excellent analysis and reasoning. Hope things treat you right this week.

 

[RetroVK]

ADD
Arkansas Pk
Toledo -12
Missouri -2

Strong leans now
Kansas state +5
fiu +43
ball state -11
sdsu +10.5

Notes about plays :
After further capping, feel a lot better about Pitt. I will be keeping it.
After further capping, feel less confident about the Clemson/ncsu total. Not bad enough to eat juice though.. but not sure that is a great investment.
If the VT line continues to fall and hits 6.5 ... I will be forced to take a strong look at playing them. Have Marshall 11.5 but 6.5 is a different animal. Can't imagine it powers through the 7 but if it does ... not so sure I don't take them.

 

[E.T.G.]

have you been able to confirm that Dodd is starting for RWho? I know Nova practiced today but I'm pretty much expecting Dodd behind center and I'm very close to adding Ark to my card

 

[RetroVK]

have you been able to confirm that Dodd is starting for RWho? I know Nova practiced today but I'm pretty much expecting Dodd behind center and I'm very close to adding Ark to my card

Seems 50-50 ish to me .. I played it assuming Nova is cleared but just as likely Dodd gets the nod. Would think the gameplan most of the week was assuming that Dodd was the one ... so there is that. Probably just gonna run it a bunch either way. Not sure this Arkansas team is a good spot to test your concussion.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

This quote has me scratching my head though with any consideration of backing UNC against my team.

UNC defensive coordinator Vic Koenning said there were about five or six starters who “raised the white flag” in the first half last year.

“We don’t need that to happen again to us,” he said.

Koenning said some players have already been griping about sore hamstrings and groins this week, and questioned whether some of his players are “tough enough and man enough to play.” UNC safety Tre Boston said “Coach Vic is a firey guy” who likes to motivate them, but he need look no further than last season's score.

 

[Marsski]

Statement game for Bielema, added that one as well.

 

[twinkie13]

tell about Mizzou....

and the o/u

 

[hugh613]

Good luck kyle.

 

[Gotta Eat]

One more for you VK.. Can North Tex keep it within the number?

 

[RetroVK]

Sort of funny with the Rutgers Arkansas game how the two coaches are playing cat and mouse about whether their normal starter will play. Arky kid has a bruised shoulder on his throwing arm. If I knew both backups were going then I would have to hit that under.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Obviously if USC plays to their talent is a bad bet. No argument there. .... but I have yet to see many signs of them playing to their talent. Beating up on a bad BC team travelling across the country doesn't impress me much. Not sure Utah State is all that outclassed .. I mean they did go to Wisconsin and outplay the badgers last year ...at byu and lost by 3 and have outplayed Utah in back to back seasons. Better coach by default, Better QB, and gonna guess way more heart here. USC maybe puts it all together and if they do ... well Utah state backers are done because Trojans just have the better athletes. Admit this is me believing my lying eyes ( which seem to show Utah state is every bit as good as usc ). But ya .. wont be shocked if Utah state fails.

Utah State pretty tough to run the ball on and if Kessler can outduel Keeton then so be it. Won't hold Utah state to 12 fd and 184 yards to wear out the opposing defense like with BC. Utah State secondary can be had though. We shall see ... doubt it's a blowout though.

honestly, imho, there's no value with the current line anyhow...either way...so i'll probably just lay off, fwiw. that said, i'm now intrigued by the under in this game.

can tell you this...i will be against USC the following weekend. yet another reason i'd love to see stanford take care of biz this week. (more value the next!)

For USU QB this is the "nfl scouts" game too.

 

[HUNT]

Do work vk

 

[Br@ssknux]

The best thread in all of the interwebs is back in full force. Bravo Kyle and thanks for the great analysis. I am with you on pretty much everything, including ASU, but there just seems to be something missing with that offense.

I like Kelly, but sometimes they get bogged down due to their lack of playmakers on the perimeter. Everything is short, mostly to the backs with the occasional exception of when the TE Coyle runs deep down the seam. Kelly generally gets stuffed when he keeps it on the read. I like Graham a lot, but wish he had a couple burners on the outside to put some additional pressure on the defense. I guess Strong did ok, but those looked more like big plays due to a missed tackle or 2. If I'm a DC. I'm crowding the short zones and seeing if they can go over my head, and I don't think ASU can, especially on the road.

I'm still with you on the game because I am a big believer in their defense, but I really wish they had another dimension on offense. It's probably nitpicking, but I can see a lot of 3 and outs for ASU up in Palo Alto.

 

[TheGarfather]

Kyle, give me the cliff's notes on Toledo/CMU when you get the chance. Thanks.

 

[RetroVK]

Kyle, give me the cliff's notes on Toledo/CMU when you get the chance. Thanks.

Stakes horse in a $5,000 claimer

 

[RetroVK]

Had really soured on that total on Thursday. Actually ended up adding a little to the over at halftime ( tiny ) but for the life of me cannot figure out why I did... I think I was assuming Boyd would hit an open receiver in the 2h. Johnny was nice finally meeting you.

Two little steps out of bounds for no good reason and NCSU might win that game.

Also ... college coaches have a hard time adding numbers apparently.