time to post my week 4 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
26-30 ( 9-9 last week counting the wku loss twice ,,6-3 sides counting wku loss twice, 3-6 totals ) "Not seeing it well" as they say.


329 Marshall +11.5 ( 10 or more )
359 Arkansas State -6 ( 7 or less )
349 Utah State +7 ( 7 Or more )
367 Arizona State +7.5 ( 7.5 or more )
319 Pittsburgh -4 ( 4 or better )
365 Arkansas Pk
377 Toledo -12
387 Missouri -2
Clemson ncsu over 66 loser
unc/gt over 61
wbgvu/Maryland over 52.5
smu/tamu under 79.5
Idaho/wash st over 56
utsa/utep over 58
boise st /fresno st under 68
3 team 10pt teaser 1.2/1 Clemson -3.5/Kansas -0.5/ball state -0.5
bsu fsu ht un 37


4-4 sides, 1-6 totals, 0-1 ht, 1-0 teaser 32-41 overall. wow
Strong leans

Talk me off leans
 
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ADD

Pittsburgh -4 ... There is a chance that I bail on this. Appears on surface Renfree a lot more important that I gave credit for.
 
VK I wish you all the luck on that. I grant you they were playing New Mexico and they did win by 22 points. I went to the game, I thought they looked like shit. Savage is pretty bad. A good defense, which probably isn't Duke could probably keep this team maintained pretty easily. Our WR core is solid with Street and the freshman Boyd looks great so far. If I were to bet this game I'd way till it drops to 3, if it does. Anyway like I said, wish you all the luck
 
Duke defense might be the strength of their team now, Alex. It isn't awful by any stretch.
 
gynecologist said:
Michigan St +7 thoughts?
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Tricky. MSU +7 against anyone is appealing on some levels with that defense. Notre Dame clearly underachieving with three straight bad performances. Certainly cannot lay it with ND so have to start by looking at the Sparty side. I have had about enough backing of the the MSU QB's myself but would be lying if I said it wasn't on my remaining short list. I want to look over the game some more. The coach who has less confidence in his QB probably covers the game.
 
Any thoughts on LSU-Auburn? I'm waiting on the 5dimes openers but I'm seeing -14 in some places. Is that what you see, and am I a homer thinking it would be closer to 20?
 
Also VK, after the discussion in your week 3 thread I thought you may appreciate my Central Michigan pick from last Sunday.
 
I like two of three of those for sure.

What do you know about Memphis? Why isn't Karam their QB this year? Their D was good at times last year and looking good again, but Ark St I agree should be a big challenge for them.
 
M.O.T said:
Any thoughts on LSU-Auburn? I'm waiting on the 5dimes openers but I'm seeing -14 in some places. Is that what you see, and am I a homer thinking it would be closer to 20?
Click to expand...

Gus early leader for COY honors. 3-0 and all were possible losses. Think the 14 was short and it probably closes 17 or 17.5 if they need auburn money. Not much of an opinion here. Gus ain't stupid so doubt they are fast paced as any of their previous games. I don't think the on deck factor hurts LSU here ... pretty sure they aren't looking past Aubbie. Auburn secondary is the problem here as they can be had and Mett and company are more than capable of exposing it.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
K state is an order of magnitude better coached. Line seems high. N Dakota state is a very good team and probably beats Texas too.
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KSU owns the horns. Juco transfers and 3 stars vs 4 and 5 stars ,,,, so gonna go out on a limb and say one coach is a wizard and the other is M brown.
 
M.O.T said:
Also VK, after the discussion in your week 3 thread I thought you may appreciate my Central Michigan pick from last Sunday.
Click to expand...


That was middler .. there were several others. Washington depending on your numbers.

I was laughing to myself rereading thread because of comments regarding the unlv game. Somehow lost a few sentences and kind of worded as if merging two games.

My buddy hit a middle on a first half Ville/uk I think it was. He made a great comment. Something along the lines of "Numbers don't matter until they do".
 
s--k said:
I like two of three of those for sure.

What do you know about Memphis? Why isn't Karam their QB this year? Their D was good at times last year and looking good again, but Ark St I agree should be a big challenge for them.
Click to expand...

He chose this kid back in mid-August. Tigers are completing 61% of their passes but averaging less than 6 yards per attempt. I think that is pretty telling about their offense right now. Problem for them here is that Arkansas State can stop the run but can be had through the air... just seems like a bad matchup for them to match scores. Memphis D looks ok but I think it is pretty clear that Renfree loss matters for Duke so that effort means less to me now. Ark St can move the ball and score on most defenses and get a few extra days of prep here as well. Just me or does the sun belt look down a notch this year?
 
VK said:
He chose this kid back in mid-August. Tigers are completing 61% of their passes but averaging less than 6 yards per attempt. I think that is pretty telling about their offense right now. Problem for them here is that Arkansas State can stop the run but can be had through the air... just seems like a bad matchup for them to match scores. Memphis D looks ok but I think it is pretty clear that Renfree loss matters for Duke so that effort means less to me now. Ark St can move the ball and score on most defenses and get a few extra days of prep here as well. Just me or does the sun belt look down a notch this year?
Click to expand...

I watched the Duke/Memphis game because, like you, I had the OVER. Sure Duke's defense is improved, but even that doesn't explain how offensively challenged Memphis was in that game. They looked a lot more competent against MTSU, but 15 penalties and two really bad interceptions kept them out of the win column against MTSU. Through 2 games, Memphis' offense has generated a grand total of 22 points. Redshirt freshman QB Paxton Lynch has the size, arm and potential to be pretty good at some point in his career, he just isn't there right now. I have been impressed with Memphis' tenacity on defense thus far, but even so I have to think that Arky St. is going to at least get into the 30s here, and I just don't see their offense keeping pace. I'm on Arky St. -6 as well.

Virginia Tech probably shouldn't be laying DD to any team that can fog a mirror at this point. I'll take my chances with the Thundering Herd as well.

Best of luck this week Kyle!!!

EDIT: Arky St. dropped to 4.5 @ BM. Not sure why. If anyone knows anything, speak up.
 
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I am having problems with the ND game, Gyno .. looked at it again. ND is the team with an offense and MSU can't move it on anyone .. the problem is that MSU has been opportunistic defensively and Rees isn't exactly Mr. Protect the Football. The game is just really tricky from a side picking perspective.

Looks like RAS gave me a bad number on Memphis. I will look that game over again but I capped it pretty thoroughly already. I don't think I can be talked off Ark St sans injury news that I don't know. Maybe a writeup there and I will try and find out what those guys over there are thinking so we can all discuss the game. Could be something I am missing and I certainly respect their opinion.

Gotta Eat -- Well, it is a game I will avoid and I will tell you why ..... 1. I think Florida Defense spanks Vols in what is a terrible spot for Tennessee .. travel to pacific northwest for a marquee matchup and get doors blown off and now have to travel to florida who is not only coming off of a bye but a loss to a rival where they outplayed their rival and let it slip away. It has the makings situationally of a destruction. 2. I can't lay large DD with Floridas offense until they prove they can do it. period.
 
VK said:
I am having problems with the ND game, Gyno .. looked at it again. ND is the team with an offense and MSU can't move it on anyone .. the problem is that MSU has been opportunistic defensively and Rees isn't exactly Mr. Protect the Football. The game is just really tricky from a side picking perspective.

Looks like RAS gave me a bad number on Memphis. I will look that game over again but I capped it pretty thoroughly already. I don't think I can be talked off Ark St sans injury news that I don't know. Maybe a writeup there and I will try and find out what those guys over there are thinking so we can all discuss the game. Could be something I am missing and I certainly respect their opinion.
Click to expand...
that's the problem.....:charming:
 
VK said:
Looks like RAS gave me a bad number on Memphis. I will look that game over again but I capped it pretty thoroughly already. I don't think I can be talked off Ark St sans injury news that I don't know. Maybe a writeup there and I will try and find out what those guys over there are thinking so we can all discuss the game. Could be something I am missing and I certainly respect their opinion.
Click to expand...


If they look at games the same way you do then it could be a problem. Differing methodology leads to differing opinions. They aren't right 100% of the time. I'd say back your numbers

You know if you are wrong form the market there is an issue.
 
Alan, do you believe that the current college football market (that most American bettors have access to) is considered efficient?
 
cfb totals ( there is some likelihood for weather issues this weekend and I may be forced out for windy or wet conditions on some of these )

Clemson ncsu over 66
unc/gt over 61
wbgvu/Maryland over 52.5
smu/tamu under 79.5
Idaho/wash st over 56
utsa/utep over 58
 
one more

fresno st / boise st under 68 ( thin edge but what the hell ,,,, positive EV is positive EV )
 
Alan Tongue said:
If they look at games the same way you do then it could be a problem. Differing methodology leads to differing opinions. They aren't right 100% of the time. I'd say back your numbers

You know if you are wrong form the market there is an issue.
Click to expand...

At this point, only way off would be via live betting anyway...... but I like the game and when I like a game this much I will be on it 99 out of 100 times. They are very good with injury information over there .. both with knowing the extent of and valuating their impact ( especially in cbb ) ... so my worry at the moment is an injury I don't know about.
 
53percent said:
that's the problem.....:charming:
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hehe maybe so. Market certainly respects it. RAS releases get some push back of course at the new numbers but a lot of guys just prefer to not get in the way of their opinion ( guys betting large too ). Probably less so in cfb than cbb but I am not the only one who would rather be with than against.
 
VK said:
one more

fresno st / boise st under 68 ( thin edge but what the hell ,,,, positive EV is positive EV )
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I highly highly disagree with this one, both teams will score at will and most likely only need 1 or 2 td's to hit 70 in the second half. I'm extremly curious how you see it playing out under 68...Thanks Kyle, GL this week.
 
finally got around to updating record. Since I listed wku twice instead of once for two units, I counted both losses in the record for my ctg tracking. The record is more depressing in context of my actual numbers than ones posted here. Trying to only post stuff still in range ...
 
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