time to post my week 3 card so far

The more I dig into the Alabama at Ole Miss game, the more I think Alabama beats them handily. I traditionally hate betting on the top teams on the road against other really good teams but there are some major match up issues in play for this game and some major motivational angles for Alabama which you rarely get to be able to hang your hat on.
 
gps_3 said:
I saw that you eliminated Texas as a bet. You mind sharing some of your thoughts? I made that line much closer to a pick. I think my Texas # is solid, maybe I'm overrating Cal, haven't seen much of them to be honest. I don't like backing a true freshman QB making his first road start and laying more than a TD (see my thoughts on Alabama @ Ole Miss), and from what I've seen of Texas, a lot of their offensive success is predicated on throwing the ball downfield. Just seems that with the success they've had there the first 2 games that Beuchele is due for some regression, and a road start is as likely a spot as any. Haven't made a play on it, probably won't on the line tbh. Will look at the over though because I think both teams can score
Click to expand...


9:30 am start for a young burnt orange team. could be a slow start.
 
clowncar said:
I would love to hear your thoughts Jdog.

Buffalo is actually a team I am little behind the curve on at the moment. I know they had a bunch of turnovers and a deceiving loss to Albany in their opener and I know they are off a bye .... Hard for me to get a read off of that game given personnel turnover. And Nevada played against the option and then at Notre Dame off their loss to Texas so I am not sure how much I can take from those games either. Help would be appreciated.
Click to expand...

Here's what I've found:
UB seems to be in total disarray right now (and I'm not so sure the loss was "deceiving"). They started the Senior QB Iowa St transfer Grant Rohach, but pulled him in the 2Q against Albany after a 3-9 with 2 Int start and moved to a Redshirt Freshman Tyree Jackson for the remainder of the game. Coach has said he's going to go with both QB's against Nevada. Can't see how that will work out with the team not knowing who is behind center. Jackson is definitely more of a running QB, while Rohach is more of a pocket passer. They do return Sr. Jordan Johnson at RB, who scored 12 TDs last year on 811 yards. The loss to Albany (as a 3 TD fave) exposed the dissension in the program. New players, rotating QB's, a week off to stew in the loss to a FCS team and now they go west to altitude for a 6:00pm Pacific start against UNR.

UNR had a tough option matchup against Cal Poly, but pulled out the W in OT and then went to ND. From what I read, UNR actually felt pretty good about their play. A side from a couple of tough fluke plays and they had a tough time stopping ND on 2 4th down plays, they felt that they played a top tier team pretty well. Several blog sites stated that the score was not indicative of how well UNR played against the Domers.

Always like the angle of a home altitude team getting a first-time east coast squad, especially at night. Can see this one getting out of hand in the 2nd half, as legs go and stamina is called into question at 4500 feet.

Just my take. BOL this year!
 
Tailed you on fading NIU last week, that was a great call.

I lean your way on SD St, its up to 11 so I'm watching hoping for 10 to show back up. Big drop off at NIU QB after Hare as you well know.

Mighta caught a bad number but I jumped the Hilltoppers at 18...Miami Ohio gave up the ghost last week and I think its gonna be tough for them to cover W Ky and stop Brohm's offense with their secondary talent.

I'm kinda warming up to BG +6.5 right now, I see you were on Middle Tenn at 3.5. I don't know much about MTSU. Just feel like BG getting some serious class relief after playing Buckeyes and D3 NC.

Probably gonna be on Buckeyes ML for a homerish bet, just willing to take my chances with Urban vs Big Game Bob.

Good luck this week.
 
jdoggoakley said:
Here's what I've found:
UB seems to be in total disarray right now (and I'm not so sure the loss was "deceiving"). They started the Senior QB Iowa St transfer Grant Rohach, but pulled him in the 2Q against Albany after a 3-9 with 2 Int start and moved to a Redshirt Freshman Tyree Jackson for the remainder of the game. Coach has said he's going to go with both QB's against Nevada. Can't see how that will work out with the team not knowing who is behind center. Jackson is definitely more of a running QB, while Rohach is more of a pocket passer. They do return Sr. Jordan Johnson at RB, who scored 12 TDs last year on 811 yards. The loss to Albany (as a 3 TD fave) exposed the dissension in the program. New players, rotating QB's, a week off to stew in the loss to a FCS team and now they go west to altitude for a 6:00pm Pacific start against UNR.

UNR had a tough option matchup against Cal Poly, but pulled out the W in OT and then went to ND. From what I read, UNR actually felt pretty good about their play. A side from a couple of tough fluke plays and they had a tough time stopping ND on 2 4th down plays, they felt that they played a top tier team pretty well. Several blog sites stated that the score was not indicative of how well UNR played against the Domers.

Always like the angle of a home altitude team getting a first-time east coast squad, especially at night. Can see this one getting out of hand in the 2nd half, as legs go and stamina is called into question at 4500 feet.

Just my take. BOL this year!
Click to expand...


Great info jdog

I saw bits of the Notre Dame game and they looked ok from what I saw. I never watched enough of it to get a "feel" for what was going on though. Regardless, it sounds like the team is positive coming out of that loss so that is a good sign. They had a bunch of quotes out of the poly game too that were positive. So maybe the attitude with that team currently is good.

I saw Albany make it into the top 25 FCS poll this week. They beat Rhode Island (same team that lost to Kansas by 49) handily last week. I do think the box score was deceiving to the final score because they nearly doubled the Great Danes in yardage and first downs. They turned it over 4 times to Albany's 0 .. First Albany TD was a two play 7 yard drive after an interception, Second TD was long run right after a buffalo personal foul penalty, and buffalo also fumbled inside the Albany 10 though it was fourth down anyway. I think maybe that game wasn't quite as horrible as it might appear at first glance, though it was horrible.

I like the altitude angle, confidence angle, shaky qb play angle ... and they have more talent than buffalo anyway.

Just off of road trip to notre dame and buffalo off a bye ...scares me a little.
 
clowncar said:
Great info jdog

I saw bits of the Notre Dame game and they looked ok from what I saw. I never watched enough of it to get a "feel" for what was going on though. Regardless, it sounds like the team is positive coming out of that loss so that is a good sign. They had a bunch of quotes out of the poly game too that were positive. So maybe the attitude with that team currently is good.

I saw Albany make it into the top 25 FCS poll this week. They beat Rhode Island (same team that lost to Kansas by 49) handily last week. I do think the box score was deceiving to the final score because they nearly doubled the Great Danes in yardage and first downs. They turned it over 4 times to Albany's 0 .. First Albany TD was a two play 7 yard drive after an interception, Second TD was long run right after a buffalo personal foul penalty, and buffalo also fumbled inside the Albany 10 though it was fourth down anyway. I think maybe that game wasn't quite as horrible as it might appear at first glance, though it was horrible.

I like the altitude angle, confidence angle, shaky qb play angle ... and they have more talent than buffalo anyway.

Just off of road trip to notre dame and buffalo off a bye ...scares me a little.
Click to expand...

very reasonable "scares" - hope I'm right; but you never know with 18-22 year old kids :0)
 
What are you thinking on Az St vs UTSA to downgrade?

Maybe Az St doesn't get up by enough to close the back door?
 
s--k said:
What are you thinking on Az St vs UTSA to downgrade?

Maybe Az St doesn't get up by enough to close the back door?
Click to expand...

[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 495"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom: thin solid rgb(203, 204, 206);">[TR="class: header"]
[TH="align: left"]Matchup[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]
i
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]
i
[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]8-19[/TD]
[TD]7-14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]2-3[/TD]
[TD]1-3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]525[/TD]
[TD]392[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]332[/TD]
[TD]229[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]25-45[/TD]
[TD]22-36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]7.4[/TD]
[TD]6.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]193[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[TD]4.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]10-114[/TD]
[TD]8-76[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]35:09[/TD]
[TD]24:51





















[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 495"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom: thin solid rgb(203, 204, 206);">[TR="class: header"]
[TH="align: left"]Matchup[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]
i
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]
i
[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]4-15[/TD]
[TD]3-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]0-1[/TD]
[TD]1-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]454[/TD]
[TD]349[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]231[/TD]
[TD]228[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]17-32[/TD]
[TD]22-33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]7.2[/TD]
[TD]6.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]223[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]5.1[/TD]
[TD]3.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]8-73[/TD]
[TD]6-53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]26:56[/TD]
[TD]33:04














[/TD]
[/TR]
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[/TD]
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Doesn't seem the pac12 team gets up for these games and UTSA does. Both of those were thursday night games. The backdoor could be open (though utsa offense is an atrocity) due to asu defense. I remember the amazing fourth qtr utsa had against okst a few years ago too. Just seems like UTSA always covers and graham is a bonehead and might find a way to keep utsa in a game they shouldn't be. Not sure how good the offense actually is because Texas Tech is just that bad on defense right now. Conference opener to Cal next week scares me some too. Obviously I am in love with most of the matchups on the field but I have been in other UTSA games against the power5 schools too and I looked under my mattress and that money isn't there anymore.
 
I remember those home games UTSA hosted Ok St and Arz...I was on the losing end of each of those. For comparison purposes, Az St is better than Arizona, but also pretty jekyll and hyde week-to-week historically. A 2 score game could be just as likely as a 4 score game. I was thinking Az St gets into the 40s then it just matters how many the Roadrunners can come up with. UTSA likely cares more with the flat spot for Az St potentially. We'll see.

Sensed you were high on Army coming into the season. But what about a road fav at UTEP? Feel so bad for them with Jackson's horrible tragic death. Almost don't want to bet against them just because of that...-3 at UTEP. Trying to get perspective on games and spreads, not sure where you rate UTEP compared to where Temple appears to have fallen to.
 
You can feel awful about what happened to that young man. You can be grateful for his service and saddened by his loss in the accident. And you can still bet UTEP. There is an Army base (Fort Bliss) right there in the area so I would expect Army to have a good contingent of fans in the stands too. QB is banged up for UTEP. RB for UTEP should have some success, the option should have some success ... and the game should have one of the lowest numbers of plays in a game we see all year with two run based, slow paced, clock eating offenses out there. Feels coin flippy to me. Winner will probably come down to a key fourth down play somewhere after the 7:30 mark of the fourth quarter. I suppose the handicapper in me thinks you take the pts with the miners at a FG or more since I think this is a one score game most times it is played and they only expect mid forties from the two teams combined, making the pts that much more valuable. Army played two challenged offenses the first two games. Best Army team in quite awhile, I have a feeling and I think they actually have a shot at the Commander in Chief Trophy this year. Tough game to handicap and you don't know if Army will be distracted or inspired to play harder off the tragedy. Just know that Army will have fan support which mitigates some of the hfa (I admit I am making an assumption on fan support from the local base).
 
One other thing ... UTEP played a rival week one and big brother week two ... and have the overwhelming favorite to win the CUSA division they play in the week after ... if you are ever going to get a flat UTEP effort, you would think it would be here.
 
Kind of warming up to the UTEP - Army under the total.

Pretty excited. Good week of work where I was able to catch up after being behind several deals, though disappointed I didn't get to see Br@ss this week. And now I am just a few hours from getting to get a bunch of plays in ... and a day after that, I will be watching Friday night football. Tell me we aren't living the dream.
 
Ok here is what I got for good or bad ....

wmich illinois under 56
col michigan under 57
Army utep under 48
fresno st 21
wky moh over 62
oregon nebraska under 74 (my weekly reminder of not football)
ncstate -23 (I was going to bet this on my way to the airport leaving town at 22 but 21.5 started popping so I thought I could wait for 21, 23 by the time I landed. shit)
mia fl app st under 52.5
troy usm over 65
mich st ndame under 51
tamu auburn under 54.5
duke nwestern under 44
bama -10.5
usc 8.5
utah -12.5
hawaii 24.5


I absolutely love the offerings this week. I loved week 1 and won around a half unit or so, hated week two and killed it .. and love it here .. so take with a grain of salt.
 
So currently left on the radar

usf
texas (just leaving on radar because it dropped to 7 and 6 i will play. doubt it gets there but have to consider it again)
nevada (jdog has me looking it over a third time now)
fiu (line came out late)
florida state Just asking them to win now ....
 
clowncar said:
Kind of warming up to the UTEP - Army under the total.

Pretty excited. Good week of work where I was able to catch up after being behind several deals, though disappointed I didn't get to see Br@ss this week. And now I am just a few hours from getting to get a bunch of plays in ... and a day after that, I will be watching Friday night football. Tell me we aren't living the dream.
Click to expand...

I know how it can be when you're traveling. Time is tight. This week the thread is once again living up to its rep as the best thread on the Internet. Looks like we'll be on a lot of the same sides this week. I need to find a way to retire because this work nonsense has made it impossible to concentrate on what really matters...
 
clowncar said:
Kind of warming up to the UTEP - Army under the total.

Pretty excited. Good week of work where I was able to catch up after being behind several deals, though disappointed I didn't get to see Br@ss this week. And now I am just a few hours from getting to get a bunch of plays in ... and a day after that, I will be watching Friday night football. Tell me we aren't living the dream.
Click to expand...

twinkie13 said:
hopefully Br@ass pops up

love his stuff
Click to expand...
Lol Twink, ain't been worth a shit so far this year. Due for a good week though I guess..
 
wmich - illy under --Basically envision an 800 yard game here. I think both the front sevens on defense are the strengths of the team. Western Michigan was a slow paced team last year and appear to me as though they will be again this year, though I was surprised how many plays they ran offensively against NW. Illinois has changed to a slower pace with the coaching change. 23-20 type game to me along the lines of what we saw with nw and wmich.

colorado - michigan under - Michigan has given up 232 and 331 to start the year to hawaii and ucf respectively. UCF had an 87 yard run or that would be considerably lower too. Moreover, they gave up over 400 yards offense at home just once last year and they completely shut down many teams. Michigan was up 21-0 early against ucf and potentially lost a little interest. Colorado defense is experienced and held their rival down. Basically been preparing for what Michigan does for the last two weeks with Idaho State inbetween CSU and this game. Buffs offense has been good but faces a different animal here. Some fear their good offense has been protecting their defense. Moreover, if you look at last years road games you find colorado just wasn't the same offensively. Scored 20, 23, 17, 31, 3 and 14 in those efforts. And only Utah was in the same realm of defensive squad as what we see with Michigan. But what I really like is that i think this is the first game where the opposing offense should get the full attention of the Wolverines defense. I think Michigan dominates up front but if they don't generate turnovers the way they have been, I don't see why their offense lights it up to get the number of pts needed to put this thing over the total. I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan was held to high twenties in this game. Everyone but me seems to like the Colorado QB but his ability to fumble and find open defenders is my biggest concern for the total. I really need Colorado to protect the football.

Army UTEP under - This is just a bet that there are not enough possessions to reach the number. That's it. It is a complete pace of play game. I also like that both defenses practice against smashmouth offense. QB for UTEP at least a little banged up. Both offenses can succeed I think, but the game should be a tick tock tick tock game from opening kick to final whistle. I hope I get to watch this game and it is my kind of football, I love Academy football and of course, I love the miners.

Fresno State 21 - Team was down 11 at Nebraska after three quarters before the wheels fell off and they rebounded with a good showing the following week. These two teams have similar recruiting levels the last four years so it isn't like Toledo simply outclasses Fresno State. Only gave up 406 to Nebraska and almost half of that came in the 4th quarter. Toledo with a good effort at Arkansas State but that performance has lost some luster after what we have seen from Arkansas State since. So bad they are a two score dog to utah State tonight. Just seems like too many points to me and if Toledo beats Fresno State by four scores it will probably occur the way houston won by four scores last night.

wky moh over - I look for Wky to rebound offensively. I have watched Rice two weeks in a row with an under bet on them both times (won both somehow and neither were great bets) and came away thinking two things ... 1. This is one of the worst secondaries in the nation and 2. This is the worst Rice offense I have seen in a long time. I bring this up because it is easy to assume wky offense was not taking a step back post-Doughty when the jury may well still be out. But I think the game slows down massively here for wky and this is a team they had 569 yards and 56 points against last year. The thing is, MOH made enough plays despite 4 turnovers to generate pts in that game as well. They went on the road and outgained iowa in Iowa City at Kinnick, gaining over 400 yards of offense. I realize Iowa lost a key defender early in that game but that is fairly impressive. Game should see 1000 yards or so .. so tough to not go over this number for me. some thunderstorm concerns but hard to predict that.

Oregon - Nebraska under - Nebraska is the key to me liking this on two fronts. 1. They are playing good rush defense to start the year 2. They are committed to running the ball to start the year. We know what Oregon does as far as running the football and Cub did tell me that he thinks Nebraska could struggle some with the edge runs.... but I think they can contain Oregon enough to force them to make plays with the QB. Still a bit unproven to me despite the fcs chops. Oregon front 7 looked a bit porous to me in the Virginia game which I watched with interest last weekend. I do worry Nebraska gashes them repeatedly but I will note that they only appeared super bad after they had a commanding lead in that game. I think Nebraska has moved to a less explosive style of offense this year (though I like what they are doing) and Oregon has been declining as an offensive (and defensive) football team for the last couple years. Only the Arizona State game went over this number on Oregon road games last year. The year prior, only two of their road games went over this number. Team just tends to get involved in lower scoring (comparatively lol) games on the road. Need a lot of consecutive ugly quarters to reach the high seventies or more... please don't be "not football"

ncstate -23 - Just a good spot to play a big favorite. Disappointing opening week loss and nothing to look forward to after this game. Defense dominated Old Dom last year and rates to do so again. Athlete for Athlete this isn't close and the skill guys will make big plays. Several of the ball carriers for ncsu were trucking ecu defenders last week. Should see more of the same with that this week. They are also playing faster this and it looks like Old Dominion will be a little faster paced than last year as well. If ncsu does not come out ready for this game then there is a good chance they have a rough season in my opinion. Should be angry and focused. Most advantageous thing for big dogs is to be overlooked .....

miami app st under - Big crowd should keep app st engaged. Some fear miami has passing game to give them more problems defensively than the vols gave them but I think they match up well along the line of scrimmage defensively to keep this one under the total. Conversely, I think the hurricanes are capable of stopping the app st running game as well. Electric atmosphere for this game ... want to watch.
 
[TABLE="width: 400"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: header, width: 166, bgcolor: #CCCCFF"]Pacific Time[/TH]
[TH="class: header, width: 103, bgcolor: #CCCCFF"]Alabama[/TH]
[TH="class: header, width: 109, bgcolor: #CCCCFF"]Mississippi[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/16/16 05:50:10am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11-105[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11-115[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/15/16 03:26:24pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/15/16 02:06:56pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11½-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11½-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/15/16 01:24:11pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11½-109[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11½-111[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/15/16 12:45:37pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11½-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11½-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/15/16 07:39:28am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/15/16 07:39:27am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11-106[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11-114[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/15/16 07:38:45am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11½-106[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11½-114[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/14/16 09:32:45pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11½-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11½-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/14/16 09:32:39pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11½-105[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11½-115[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/14/16 09:32:23pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11½-106[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11½-114[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/14/16 11:50:17am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11½-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11½-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/13/16 04:51:42pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/13/16 04:51:07pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11-114[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11-106[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/13/16 03:55:12pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11-115[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11-105[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/13/16 03:55:10pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-11-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+11-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/13/16 11:39:04am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10½-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/13/16 11:39:04am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10½-124[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10½+103[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/13/16 11:39:04am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"] [/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10½-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/13/16 11:37:35am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10-124[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10+103[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/13/16 09:25:39am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10-115[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10-105[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/13/16 09:24:54am[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10-113[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10-108[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/12/16 11:55:08pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/12/16 11:55:06pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10+100[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10-121[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/12/16 11:54:45pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10½+100[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10½-121[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/12/16 05:45:54pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10½-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10½-110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/12/16 05:45:53pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10½-115[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10½-105[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/12/16 03:04:50pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10-115[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+10-105[/TD]
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[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/12/16 03:04:49pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-9-110[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]+9-110[/TD]
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[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/12/16 12:38:14pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10-112[/TD]
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[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]09/12/16 12:27:49pm[/TD]
[TD="class: data, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]-10-110[/TD]
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Troy usm over - Two experienced qbs flinging it around. Points will appear somehwere. Troy is a team I was excited about preseason and was hoping no one would notice before conference play hit. unfortunately they played well at clemson and if they play well against another high powered offense then I probably lose value. Two teams are actually just slightly above average pace clubs so this isn't a pace play as much as a play on the two QBs generating some big plays.

USC 8.5 - Just think the Stanford offensive line has taken a big step back and at that point, you are relying on the new QB to get it done on offense or McCaffery just going off on making people miss. More talent on the USC side. should be a slugfest and I like the points. I am also going to take a small moneyline stab on this game fwiw. I feel USC is far more battle tested right now. Value from the misleading final against alabama where the trojans quit.

utah -12.5 - I watched a little bit of the Tulsa - SJSU game (channel was late broadcasting because they were showing a multiple overtime game which was costing me money at the time) but by the time I was tuning in, the game was decided as Tulsa just annihilated them. But what struck me as I watched the game was how much bigger, stronger, faster and confident Tulsa was compared to SJSU. In the context of playing UTAH that should play out to an even bigger extent. I assume the lowish line here is due to the spot ..emotional holy war game last week for Utah and SJSU off of portland state. Incidentally portland state had 458 yards of offense on that sjsu defense last week. Defense and hard nosed running was the calling card of this team last year and if they have lost that, they have lost their identity and will have a long year. Are not going to be able to run on UTAH and don't think they have the QB chops to make due with the passing game. If Utah can not turn the ball over at the pace they did against byu, they should roll.

hawaii 24.5 - Basically have come to the conclusion that Arizona is just bad. Offense is really struggling right now. Tough spot for Hawaii and a good spot to back Zona in the sense they are coming off their worst game performance of the last half decade (minimum) but I have simply decided they are what they have shown so far and if that is the case, the line is a tad high. Grambling State.
 
Ya that bama game was another game where if i was using normal methodology I would have gotten a better number. My card is littered with that to the point where I might have to re-open offshore stuff. Was happy to find the 10.5 was available at multiple places in town when I think most offshores had 11 at the time. So I guess there is a bright side on very rare occasions, usually with dogs as LV is far less sharp than offshores.

I mean I could have gotten much higher totals on just about all of the unders ... significant amounts higher.

All the guys I talk cfb with all have way better numbers than I do. What I am doing is just not the effective way of investing in sports. Some of them were faster than me anyway and would routinely beat me at getting the best number but I was getting great numbers before and often betting into stale numbers now. Happy with how most of the games have moved since i bet them the first couple weeks and my early week bets this week have certainly moved the way I would want ... but there is going to be a week where the bad number I get plops up and destroys me.

In the case of Bama, not sure it was a game I would have attacked at open anyway if I was prepared and had access. So i don't feel that bad about it because I didn't settle on them until late in the week anyway, though 10 was widely available. Though like I said in the first sentence, maybe I do speculatively at under 10 with a decent idea of which way it would move.

I think I mentioned it in the week 1 thread ... I am not approaching this as professionally as in the past. This is NOT the way to most effectively wager on sports. The effective way (for your average handicapper incapable of line manipulation) is to be prepared, have access to where lines are first released, and attack the weakest numbers. Simple. I am not doing that this year and I will have to accept lesser EV than a normal year.

I posted my picks at my buddies website last night where they all have better numbers than me every week and this week and asked them to not make fun of me for it and I will do my best to not be envious and jealous of their numbers.

As I am clearly telling you the better way to do it, have shown in the past how effective the better way to do it is for all of you, I am asking that you don't make fun of me for my bad business practices in this sense for this season. My numbers are not going to be as good, they are not going to move as much from the point I bet them to kickoff. Period. If you are tailing in any capacity, I apologize for that but I am being up front about it too.

I will mention this again myself at some point when the bad number costs me but try not to hate on me in the meantime.... not saying anyone was but I have prided myself over the years on showing the best ways to beat the line and not practicing what I preach is eating at me to an extent ... in other words, my bad numbers are a sore spot and would prefer no one rubbed salt in the wounds.
 
Last edited:
Chad Wheeler back at LT for USC which should help.

Slight edge for Stanford having 2 full weeks to prepare for this matchup. Plus, classes haven't started for them yet. Plenty of time to focus on what's really important.
 
VK- Earlier this year you said you were not using offshores and instead physically going into vegas shops. Never been to vegas so please excuse my ignorance but does this mean you are walking around Vegas with a betting bankroll in your pocket ? or do they take VISA ? or do you have some sort of account with the betting shop(s) ? Thanks for satisfying my curiosity, and good luck again. ECU game is the only common play - and I see nothing of yours that I am fading. Might pick up a tail or to, especially western stuff where my limited knowledge is most limited. :shake: :cigarguy::cigarguy::shake2:
bull
 
Pretty cool on the uniforms. That memorial in hawaii is probably the most emotional one i have been to. The little baby chairs representing the kids who died in the okc bombing a close second. Never been to a 9/11 one.
 
s--k said:
Who is this team wearing UTSA uniforms tonight? Geez.
Click to expand...

Ya that was something. I overrated Arizona State on both sides of the ball. Throw in the spot and it was just a horrible bet. Won't take long to grade that one.

Weekday albatross continues. Lots of line value tomorrow but had a lot of that tonight too.
 
clowncar said:
Ya that was something. I overrated Arizona State on both sides of the ball. Throw in the spot and it was just a horrible bet. Won't take long to grade that one.

Weekday albatross continues. Lots of line value tomorrow but had a lot of that tonight too.
Click to expand...

I have completely abstained from weekday games, even if I like them as well as anything else on the weekend. Once I lost what seemed to be the 20th in a row, I pulled up shop and capped only the Saturday games.
 
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