time to post my week 3 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
week 1 17-15
week 2 13-7
overall 30-22

Ok two winning weeks to start so cannot complain too much and I think I caught more breaks than I had bad breaks in week two.


Locked In:

Rutgers -4 (+) winner 1-0
MTSU -3.5 (+) winner 2-0
Baylor -30 loser 2-1
Asu -18 (-) loser 2-2
Illinois 3.5 loser 2-3
Ecu 4.5 loser 2-4
Sdsu -10 (+) winner 3-4
Kentucky -18.5 winner 4-4
unlv 13 loser 4-5

wmich illinois under 56 winner 5-5
col michigan under 57 loser 5-6
Army utep under 48 loser haha 5-7
fresno st 21 loser haha 5-8
wky moh over 62 loser 5-9
oregon nebraska under 74 (my weekly reminder of not football) winner 6-9
ncstate -23 Winner 7-9
mia fl app st under 52.5 loser 7-10
troy usm over 65 winner 8-10
mich st ndame under 51 loser 8-11
tamu auburn under 54.5 winner 9-11
duke nwestern under 44 winner 10-11
bama -10.5 loser 10-12
usc 8.5 loser 10-13
utah -12.5 winner 11-13
hawaii 24.5 winner 12-13
2h neb -3 -120 winner 13-13
2H neb ore over 35 loser 13-14
2H ECU -1 winner 14-14
2H Texas -6 loser 14-15
2H texas cal over 42.5 loser 14-16
2H sjsu 6 loser 14-17
2H sjsu utah under 21.5 winner 15-17
2H Byu ucla under 23 winner 16-17



Strong Leans
Fresno St 20.5 eliminated (fresno #?) eliminated but then after working it some more and getting a 21, I took it.
Wky -15 (angry offense for brohm this week I think. I think MOH can score on them though. maybe over a better look depending on total) played total
usf -14 (Babers doesn't give his kids much of a chance this year with what he is doing but assuming no rule changes to turn the sport into football, it will probably pay dividends in other years. Defense is wretched right now because he doesn't care about it)
ncstate -22 (probably playing. old dom outclassed and ncstate angry) Playing but stalking line. played at a bad line
TAMU 3.5 (more interested in potential total mistake) eliminated played under
duke 6 (Teams played pretty even a year ago, look pretty similar this year too. 6 pts a lot for nw offense to cover. huge movement to get it to 6 and when i fade that crap i lose) played under, lost number on the side
usc 8 - Stanford offense didn't impress game 1 post hogan. USC a second shot at the "we are a good team" barrel. played
ucla -3.5 (Hill stifles the byu passing game and he is not quite the runner post injury that he was before. Heartbreaking loss is tough even for thirty year old players. Arizona performance for byu lost luster)
utah -12.5 (small chance sjsu just sucks and hard to figure out how they score) Warming to it. played
texas -7.5 (tough defensive match up for Cal .. they cannot tackle and Texas bullies you on the ground. Bye to follow so no lookahead. Disappointing ending for Cal) eliminated


TMO
Penn State -9 (off a loss, revenge and temple down) eliminated
FAU 22 (no lookahead and snyder off a bye and fau off a game they cared about. eliminated
neb -3 (pr says line is exactly right. Oregon D looked porous to me against UVA though. Program arrival game for neb hc) eliminated
Boston College 6 (lots of pts for that defense to get. VT on a downer? Not many for opposing defense to lay. teehee) eliminated
Pitt 6.5 (Only season goals remaining are conference ones for okst. Cannot make the playoffs and conference opener at Baylor is on deck. Pitt with a nice win. Pitt couldn't stop psu passing game though ... over?) too tough to cap eliminated
ulm 24.5 (pr says it is actually a play. Put it here because of that but I won't be playing it. no confidence in my pr with ulm) eliminated with prejudice
ou 2.5 (I made ou a tiny favorite. line crosses the zero .. i should probably just stay away and enjoy the game. It should be intense. eliminated
nd -7.5 (would have played nd at opener .. a second score though is a different animal) eliminated

 
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I had a lot of plays so grading them all here could be tough. I know some of you are familiar with this part of my thread and some of you may not be, but I like to take a look at what happened in the game and decide how well capped it was. Keep in mind, I may grade something different than you would as this is subjective. Also note, a game might be a clear winner but for all the wrong reasons compared to how I capped it. I would reflect that in my grade because I want to see how well I am actually "seeing it". I went 1-1 on halftimes which I will not grade here.

Army/Rice under 53 Winner Grade B - The final score was 31-14 so we could have given up another TD and still gone under. There was only 703 yards of offense which also supports the under on a total of 53. There were also only 35 first downs combined in the game which also supports the under. In addition, several of the scoring drives were greatly aided by field position .. Army FG drive that started on Rice 13 after a blocked punt, Rice 1 play 37 yard drive after an Army punt, and Army 35 yard TD drive after a Rice fumble. The reason I am giving it a B instead of an A is that I expected more from the Rice offense in this game which would have kept army off the field a little more and reduced their production. I will get into that in the next play grade. Good bet I think ... at least above average as it played out this time. I will say that Rice wide receivers dropped a lot of passes which hurt the total.

Rice +9 - Loser Grade D+ - The final Score was 31-14, which meant a Rice TD would still not have allowed the bet to cash. With that said, after giving up roughly 160 yards on the first two drives of Army, the Rice rush D which I thought was good enough to keep this game close for awhile finally adapted to the option. They only gave up 250 total yards or so after that to the knights. They had a punt blocked and multiple turnovers. The receivers had drops as well. So they played poorly offensively. To give you an idea of how poorly they played, they had a 1 play 37 yard td drive and had a 64 yard TD catch but only managed 289 total yards of offense. I am also a little unclear of whether or not Army would have scored more had Rice been scoring at all. They seemed fairly content with going about their business methodically. This was not a horrible play but I don't think it was plus EV.

Missouri/EMU over 57.5 - Winner Grade A+ - I won't spend a bunch on this one since it was so clearly a good wager for me. I sort of went out on a limb all last week that I thought Missouri might put up a fifty spot on emu and they actually won 62-21. They fumbled it at the EMU 1 or it might have been even worse, though they were gifted plenty themselves. Anyway, in regards to the total there was 1,075 yards in the game and there were 169 plays or so. So it pretty much went as advertised.

Missouri -25 Winner Grade A- Outgained emu by roughly 220 yards and had 9 more first downs. Controlled the game most of the way. The only reason I didn't grade this an A+ is because the Missouri defense was a little more leaky than I had capped the game out for, which certainly helped the over but which was concerning to me early in the game. Anyway, I liked this one a lot and it sort of reminded me of a MSU home game back in 2012 against Cmich where I felt confident but market disagreed and I didn't care. Gamblers have a long memory. I don't think I am an over the top, pat myself on the back sort here too often, but I am taking a bit of pride in this pick and my ego really wanted to be right.

Cin/Pur under 59.5 - Winner Grade D - Well, here I think I got an undeserved winner .. sort of. It is kind of hard to grade it because it was sitting at just 31 pts through three qtrs and then all hell broke loose in the fourth. There was over 1000 yards in the game which would warrant an over bet. Additionally, neither team was doing much to stop the other team from doing what they wanted after the first ten minutes of the game. Bearcats couldn't muster much of a pass rush and I thought Blough played ok .. which some would disagree with considering he threw 5 interceptions in the game. He also threw it 57 times and had over 400 yards passing. His last Interception came near the end of the game, in the endzone, as purdue was driving late. That TD would have put the game over the total. I think some slightly bad weather helped us in the first quarter and that was enough to make it stay under even with the rush of points at the end. I wouldn't bet this again and I can't give it anything higher than a D. I didn't think Purdue would be that pass heavy in the game either which was a capping error though time and score participated in that. Also 160 plays so pace was faster than I thought it would be.

NCSU/ECU Under 57 - Loser Grade F - It is hard to believe this wasn't my worst bet of the day but it didn't even come in second in that race . The under caught a ton of breaks in the first half of that football game. Yards were being churned out in chunks, pace was faster than I expected and both offenses had the better of the opposing defense. But there were some stops early and lots of FG attempts, some of which went in and some of which did not. At the end of the day, there was over 900 yards of offense and the final score was a deceivingly low 33-30. I watched just about every play of this game. NCSU running plays a little quicker it seems to me but the game had about 140 plays which isn't all that much more than I expected ..though more than I expected for sure. There was a trucking in that game by an ncstate ball carrier over a defender that I really enjoyed despite him scoring on the play and screwing my total bet. Wrong side .. thought early that we might escape with the blunders in the scoring areas but it wasn't meant to be.

UTSA CSU under 53 - Winner Grade A+ - 563 combined yards, 32 combined first downs, utsa ended with negative yards rushing and there were just 37 pts in the game. Both teams rushed more than they passed. UTSA could muster very little all game.

MTSU 4.5 Grade - Holding off until I watch the replay. I will say that MTSU had 495 to 344 yardager advantage and a 5 first down advantage but somehow lost 24-47. Final score almost has to be deceiving.

MTSU/Vandy over 47.5 Holding off until I watch the replay. I will say that there was 840 yards or so of total offense which will normally get you this over, which it did. Still vandy had 47 pts off 344 yards so I am not sure how lucky the over bettor might have gotten in this game.

Rest here.
 
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I purposely don't look at lines until I finish my PR updates each week, and I made OU -1.5. Really surprised to see tOSU -4
 
Great work on the Mizzou pick in Week 2 as you nailed that one and I have no problem admitting I was dead wrong with EMU, as the game played out as you expected, so just wanted to come in here and give credit where credit is due, nice job!
 
Adds

Baylor -30
Asu -18
Illinois 3.5
Ecu 4.5
Sdsu -10 (niu the gift that keeps giving)
Kentucky -18.5
 
hey CC hope you been well! I was also looking at that ECU line but was hoping I would stay away from betting my team this year. Hard not to want to play that one though. The 2015 gamecocks showed up for the first half of the MsSt game. Roper hasn't really shown me a whole lot yet.
 
ksimpsc said:
hey CC hope you been well! I was also looking at that ECU line but was hoping I would stay away from betting my team this year. Hard not to want to play that one though. The 2015 gamecocks showed up for the first half of the MsSt game. Roper hasn't really shown me a whole lot yet.
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It won't be shocking if ECU lays an egg after the way they celebrated the ncstate win. Also thought NCstate was slightly the better team in that game. scock 125th in total offense so far, 123rd in scoring offense so far. And let's face it, they haven't scored a first half point yet. ECU appears to be executing on offense. I could see the scenario where ecu is more confident on offense and thus commits the more egregious turnover than south carolina but these pts seem pretty significant considering south carolinas current offensive issues.
 
Thanks for your work on this. I agree on NIU. Just concerned about how SDSU comes out after that effort on Saturday night. Their only shot against a P-5 team and they aced the test, but it took all 60 minutes.

But maybe a band of corpses could cover 10 against NIU.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Thanks for your work on this. I agree on NIU. Just concerned about how SDSU comes out after that effort on Saturday night. Their only shot against a P-5 team and they aced the test, but it took all 60 minutes.

But maybe a band of corpses could cover 10 against NIU.
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I would think we get the defensive effort after last week at a minimum. At south bama after this so not exactly a sandwich game. wyoming and usf have both pounded this rush defense (So SDSU should destroy) and now niu has to play Graham at QB. As in, the same Ryan Graham from the bowl game against Boise State .. the last MW defense of similar caliber that faced him .. 7 for 21 38 yards ... team total offense 33 yards that game. The wheels have fallen off the team right now and this would seem to be an odd place to get them ratcheted back on there.
 
Clown, I have no idea what to expect from NC State, help me out? Really good offense, mediocreish defense? Stupid head coach?
 
Dollaz said:
Clown, I have no idea what to expect from NC State, help me out? Really good offense, mediocreish defense? Stupid head coach?
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A little more pace. Athletically they are just going to be outclassing your team though. Average defense .. probably not as good as the app st defense you faced last week.
 
clowncar said:
A little more pace. Athletically they are just going to be outclassing your team though. Average defense .. probably not as good as the app st defense you faced last week.
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I have my eyes on the over. My hesitation is that our kicking situation is in shambles and have no one to trust over 30 yards (dead serious). So we go for every 4th down. College is comical at times, we have a deep roster at RB so I had no concerns last weekend. Then with no announcement after the game, I find out Lawry had a bad hammy, and the number 2 and 4 guys were out injured. You literally have no idea on injuries at times.

We've had 2 kickers transfer, 1 quit, and 1 get hurt in the past few months.


Our DL played really well against a pretty stout ASU OL. Was impressed and think they hold up well vs. NC State. But, there skill position guys against our over aggressive secondary is a concern.
 
Dollaz said:
I have my eyes on the over. My hesitation is that our kicking situation is in shambles and have no one to trust over 30 yards (dead serious). So we go for every 4th down. College is comical at times, we have a deep roster at RB so I had no concerns last weekend. Then with no announcement after the game, I find out Lawry had a bad hammy, and the number 2 and 4 guys were out injured. You literally have no idea on injuries at times.

We've had 2 kickers transfer, 1 quit, and 1 get hurt in the past few months.


Our DL played really well against a pretty stout ASU OL. Was impressed and think they hold up well vs. NC State. But, there skill position guys against our over aggressive secondary is a concern.
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Managed 148 yards against them last year in your own house. Old Dom needs opponents like this to look past them for some reason in order to compete until the program grows some more. Possible letdown off a rivalry loss is only thing possible .. more likely an angry team with a bye after the game so nothing to look forward to ... only looking at old dom to take out frustrations.

Not sure what they total it. I do think old dom a better team than the one ncstate played last year but this isn't a good spot for the dog imo
 
Yeah, I'm not sure I touch the side this week. If NC State won last week, I may have taken a look. Total has to be low to mid 60s, right?
 
aplous said:
They won't score more than 13 IMO but us going over 30 is iffy. I'll call it 33-10.
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Thanks. The situational aspect is so bad for FAU that I guess I will most likely knock that one off my list. I should probably wait for the perfect spot to try and beat kstate since I rarely do... though not as consistently whipped by them as I once was.
 
That Western Michigan line does not make a lot of sense to me. They should have lost to Northwestern but the ref gifted them a win. Then the whole world was in love with Illinois this last weekend and one bad game and now they hate them. In the last six years WMU is 1-15 against the Big Ten with the one win coming two weeks ago. Not sure they should be laying pts in this game.
 
sleepy said:
That Western Michigan line does not make a lot of sense to me. They should have lost to Northwestern but the ref gifted them a win. Then the whole world was in love with Illinois this last weekend and one bad game and now they hate them. In the last six years WMU is 1-15 against the Big Ten with the one win coming two weeks ago. Not sure they should be laying pts in this game.
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re: Northwestern (alum and watched both games)

Western Michigan probably would have gone down the field and scored even if Northwestern got a TD there. They dominated the line of scrimmage all game as the stats show. Having said that I have no clue how good Illinois is, but line seems right.

I don't understand this Duke-Northwestern line at all. Its gone up to 7. Northwestern was outplayed by both WMU (a good MAC team) and Illinois State. ISU controlled the trenches. Northwestern has their top CB out next week (the other CB out for the year, and one of the backups got hurt as well last game). So 3 of the top 4 CB's are out, the starters are a redshirt freshman and a guy moved from safety, and the two backups are true freshman. Their offense is so bad, and their best player went out with an ankle injury (Justin Jackson), but he says he will play.

Duke must be really bad, I don't see how Northwestern could beat a mid-Mac team by more than a TD right, much less Duke (who has recruited well lately). If they have any passing game, they will eat up NU with its putrid pass rush and inexperienced secondary.
 
Some random thoughts on lines and lines from week to week.... just ramblings of this town idiot ...

I want you to think about a few lines and what they actually mean in just a very basic way....

Rutgers I played at -4. What does a -4 mean? Well, lets talk Rutgers home field advantage for a second. I give Rutgers a standard 3 for their field but in this case it is worth more. it is an early morning start for unm who has to travel all the way from Albuquerque to the northeast. That has to be worth another point in my estimation. The line had moved to 5.5 fwiw but just stay with me ... a 4 pt hfa means that unm would be an equal team to Rutgers. It would also mean that Rutgers would be a roughly equivalent dog to unm were the game in new mexico (at the -4, call it unm -2). For me, this was the glaring spread error of the week at the time I made plays.

Now look at Wmich at Illinois. Wmich was a 4 pt dog or so at NW. Illinois was a 7 point home dog to UNC (admit that this was likely short). NW either wins or loses at the goal line in week one depending on your viewpoint of that play ... regardless, the spread was in question (I think wmich outplayed nw for a bulk of the game fwiw). From the outcomes of those two games we have Wmich laying 3.5 at Illinois. The implication is that UNC would be -3.5 on a neutral to Wmich. After you are done laughing, think about it some more. The line is either really bad here or was really bad last week. Because UNC would be considerably higher on a neutral to broncos. There are some slight "spot" differences between the two but the line makes no sense in the context of prior lines.

Look at USF at Cuse ... USF laying the same at cuse as at home to niu with USF in the lesser spot compared to NIU being in the lesser spot the prior game. Again, I think the usf niu line was short and I could only play usf at this line .. but you have to stop and think about how much value you can really have with usf in this spot at this number?

cmich is giving 13 this week to unlv. Cmich was taking 17.5 at kickoff (big move late on them) at okst .. unlv closed roughly 27 i think at ucla. Follow the leader and you will find the line does not make a lot of sense unless you think that large of an overadjustment is in order.

I like to think of lines this way often. It helps me but it may be idiotic ...dunno. Obviously a lot goes into it from week to week, injuries, adjustments to power ratings, situations, match ups ... but sometimes it smells because it is wrong.
 
Was curious to read your grade on the sdsu/cal game. I had SDSU and not sure if I would play it again.

After the bama annihilation I was hellbent on coming back on SC this week against Stan. But it opened at -6.5 and I had to take Stan. Might consider a middle if I can get SC +10. I'm just worried about SC line play on both sides of the ball which plays exactly into what Stan wants to do (they're basically Bama lite). Browne is a statue back there which also concerns me if SC is down a score or two.
 
AliShaheed said:
Was curious to read your grade on the sdsu/cal game. I had SDSU and not sure if I would play it again.

After the bama annihilation I was hellbent on coming back on SC this week against Stan. But it opened at -6.5 and I had to take Stan. Might consider a middle if I can get SC +10. I'm just worried about SC line play on both sides of the ball which plays exactly into what Stan wants to do (they're basically Bama lite). Browne is a statue back there which also concerns me if SC is down a score or two.
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IMO, the USC DL question/weakness has been overblown. They actually did a pretty nice job against Bama. I wouldn't expect them to be bullied by Stanford unless the offense can't move it at all and they have to play too many minutes. Funny about the USC OL, they went from every preseason mags #1 OL to now a huge question. Again, overblown, IMO. I think history will show at year's end many a teams OL has been throat stomped by Bama DL. I agree with you on not being a Browne fan (although he does look so much like Junior, the QB from the Little Giants and I like Junior).
 
CrimsonK said:
IMO, the USC DL question/weakness has been overblown. They actually did a pretty nice job against Bama. I wouldn't expect them to be bullied by Stanford unless the offense can't move it at all and they have to play too many minutes. Funny about the USC OL, they went from every preseason mags #1 OL to now a huge question. Again, overblown, IMO. I think history will show at year's end many a teams OL has been throat stomped by Bama DL. I agree with you on not being a Browne fan (although he does look so much like Junior, the QB from the Little Giants and I like Junior).
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At this early stage it's difficult to say what is overblown and what isn't, IMO.

I thought SC run D did well early against Bama primarily due to Bama's insistence on running a lot of east/west junk. Once Bama went to their bread and butter power run game things went about as expected and SC wore down and eventually crawled into the fetal position.

The USC #1 OL in the nation stuff was funny to me from the jump and I said that in the week 1 thread. Now their starting center is out for the year (not sure if starting LT Chad Wheeler has returned yet) and depth is an issue. Stanford is the one team in the PAC that SC cannot physically bully. Stan will bring it on both sides of the LOS.
 
AliShaheed said:
At this early stage it's difficult to say what is overblown and what isn't, IMO.

I thought SC run D did well early against Bama primarily due to Bama's insistence on running a lot of east/west junk. Once Bama went to their bread and butter power run game things went about as expected and SC wore down and eventually crawled into the fetal position.

The USC #1 OL in the nation stuff was funny to me from the jump and I said that in the week 1 thread. Now their starting center is out for the year (not sure if starting LT Chad Wheeler has returned yet) and depth is an issue. Stanford is the one team in the PAC that SC cannot physically bully. Stan will bring it on both sides of the LOS.
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I agree about Bama run game and how that played out. Also agree that Stanford is the bully until proven otherwise. I don't see this being a game they make a mistake on the total but I think it will be low scoring slugfest
 
I would go Dplus or Cminus on sdsu. While the offense did better than expected, the defense was shockingly bad against what cal was doing and what we all knew and SDSU knew they were going to do. I knew the backdoor cover for Cal was a distinct possibility but thought it might be mitigated by front door cover opportunities with cal lack of tackling. That played out but i never really felt that sdsu played 7 pts better than cal. In addition the penalties were just undisciplined and often ill timed. Always easy in retrospect but why i did not chooae a 1h wager is a mystery to me. So not only do i think it was something i wouldn't play again, i also think i did a poor job weighing all the betting options and taking the best one offered for what i liked and why (even though i was wrong about gow i thought sdsu d matched up)
 
clowncar said:
I would go Dplus or Cminus on sdsu. While the offense did better than expected, the defense was shockingly bad against what cal was doing and what we all knew and SDSU knew they were going to do. I knew the backdoor cover for Cal was a distinct possibility but thought it might be mitigated by front door cover opportunities with cal lack of tackling. That played out but i never really felt that sdsu played 7 pts better than cal. In addition the penalties were just undisciplined and often ill timed. Always easy in retrospect but why i did not chooae a 1h wager is a mystery to me. So not only do i think it was something i wouldn't play again, i also think i did a poor job weighing all the betting options and taking the best one offered for what i liked and why (even though i was wrong about gow i thought sdsu d matched up)
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I had 0 faith in SDSU covering the spread once they went up 10 with roughly 2 min to go.

The offsides on 4th and 4 was just the icing on top of my agony-filled cake.
 
They had 14 penalties at home. Including a lot of holding penalties. And yes ...that offsides .... Couldnt even force the 4th down once in fg range that cal would have had to attempt
 
Some other things I like about Illinois aside from the point spread comparison issues.

My biggest take away from the WM-NW game was how WM was able to control time of possession and win in the trenches. Their D, which was pretty bad at times last season, appeared to really do well against NW. But now with the ILL St - NW game in the books, I am less impressed with the WM D because, ILL St did the same thing...10 minutes more TOP, 100 yards more than NW...I think it is telling me that NW O is a flat out mess and that my biggest impression of the WM D being pretty damn good week 1 should be reconsidered.

Moving forward to this game, I do not think WM will control the LOS vs ILL. ILL D strength is their front 4, compared to NW it is clear that NW is sorely missing two all conference 2015 players, ILL DL on the other hand currently has some potential all conference performers (Smoot, Clements, Phillips). On the other side ILL has been able to run with Vaughn and Foster. Justin Jackson was fantastic for NW last year and vs WM he did avg 5.3 ypc (aided by a 46y run - only 3.4 ypc without it) but he wasn't able to get much going against ILL St before leaving with injury (3.55 ypc no big runs). So again, I am thinking NW's O issues had more to do with their own problems rather than clearly being what WM was maybe doing. Plus WM rush D struggled alot last season, so is something resembling that more likely or something like the NW game more likely? I think ILL will be able to run.

Wes Lunt did not perform up to his capability vs UNC. While the receiving options remain underwhelming at ILL, I think for his part, Lunt can be alot more efficient this week. NC Central did hit 5-6 chunk pass plays vs WM in the first half last week.

Situationally, it could be a flat spot for ILL...off the first sell out in 5 years, with all the hype of the night game vs UNC and losing by 25, there could be a let down (although ILL only trailed by 8 early 4th qrt). If this was Beck or Cubit maybe ILL would come out flat. But I am betting that with a bye on deck the new staff will get them up to perform this week.

And in a way, is WM O a lesser version of UNC O? Perhaps the fact that they already prepped for a spread attack that can both run and pass it well with better athletes, now taking on WM ILL D may be better suited facing it 2 weeks in a row.

I really respect what WM has become and their O will be a challenge. They have yet to get great production opposite Davis at WR (remember Braverman actually caught more balls than Davis last year). Terrell to Davis is one thing, but if Smith and Nickerson can force the other receivers to make the plays ILL could stand to win that battle.
 
I won't be able to bet it until I get back from my deal in Indianapolis this week. But I will be on the under tamu/aub assuming it doesn't get beat up too much between now and then. Two of the better defensive lines in the country and both with a reputation for the general public with regards to points, so I am hoping the value remains all week. If one of these teams reaches high twenties, they have either gotten some turnover or ST help or they executed extremely well on offense.
 
s--k said:
Some other things I like about Illinois aside from the point spread comparison issues.

My biggest take away from the WM-NW game was how WM was able to control time of possession and win in the trenches. Their D, which was pretty bad at times last season, appeared to really do well against NW. But now with the ILL St - NW game in the books, I am less impressed with the WM D because, ILL St did the same thing...10 minutes more TOP, 100 yards more than NW...I think it is telling me that NW O is a flat out mess and that my biggest impression of the WM D being pretty damn good week 1 should be reconsidered.

Moving forward to this game, I do not think WM will control the LOS vs ILL. ILL D strength is their front 4, compared to NW it is clear that NW is sorely missing two all conference 2015 players, ILL DL on the other hand currently has some potential all conference performers (Smoot, Clements, Phillips). On the other side ILL has been able to run with Vaughn and Foster. Justin Jackson was fantastic for NW last year and vs WM he did avg 5.3 ypc (aided by a 46y run - only 3.4 ypc without it) but he wasn't able to get much going against ILL St before leaving with injury (3.55 ypc no big runs). So again, I am thinking NW's O issues had more to do with their own problems rather than clearly being what WM was maybe doing. Plus WM rush D struggled alot last season, so is something resembling that more likely or something like the NW game more likely? I think ILL will be able to run.

Wes Lunt did not perform up to his capability vs UNC. While the receiving options remain underwhelming at ILL, I think for his part, Lunt can be alot more efficient this week. NC Central did hit 5-6 chunk pass plays vs WM in the first half last week.

Situationally, it could be a flat spot for ILL...off the first sell out in 5 years, with all the hype of the night game vs UNC and losing by 25, there could be a let down (although ILL only trailed by 8 early 4th qrt). If this was Beck or Cubit maybe ILL would come out flat. But I am betting that with a bye on deck the new staff will get them up to perform this week.

And in a way, is WM O a lesser version of UNC O? Perhaps the fact that they already prepped for a spread attack that can both run and pass it well with better athletes, now taking on WM ILL D may be better suited facing it 2 weeks in a row.

I really respect what WM has become and their O will be a challenge. They have yet to get great production opposite Davis at WR (remember Braverman actually caught more balls than Davis last year). Terrell to Davis is one thing, but if Smith and Nickerson can force the other receivers to make the plays ILL could stand to win that battle.
Click to expand...


Basically my writeup for the game so I won't bother. I couldn't agree more
 
[TABLE="class: mod-data, width: 495"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom: thin solid rgb(203, 204, 206);">[TR="class: header"]
[TH="align: left"]Matchup[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]
i
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]
i
[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]5-12[/TD]
[TD]7-18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]462[/TD]
[TD]309[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]265[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att[/TD]
[TD]19-25[/TD]
[TD]17-35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass[/TD]
[TD]10.6[/TD]
[TD]3.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]197[/TD]
[TD]182[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush[/TD]
[TD]5.3[/TD]
[TD]5.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]6-46[/TD]
[TD]13-99[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: indent"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: highlight"]
[TD="align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]25:41[/TD]
[TD]34:19[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
I was looking over the Illini schedule ... Lovie better win this game ... they get purdue at home which is probably the only game they will be favored in the rest of the year. So many tough games .. and probably catch Northwestern at the worst time. All the offseason momentum could just go down the drain here in a new york minute.
 
I saw that you eliminated Texas as a bet. You mind sharing some of your thoughts? I made that line much closer to a pick. I think my Texas # is solid, maybe I'm overrating Cal, haven't seen much of them to be honest. I don't like backing a true freshman QB making his first road start and laying more than a TD (see my thoughts on Alabama @ Ole Miss), and from what I've seen of Texas, a lot of their offensive success is predicated on throwing the ball downfield. Just seems that with the success they've had there the first 2 games that Beuchele is due for some regression, and a road start is as likely a spot as any. Haven't made a play on it, probably won't on the line tbh. Will look at the over though because I think both teams can score
 
Curious to your thoughts on Reno Saturday night. Found several nuggets I like about this one and am happy to go into detail if you want. UB is a mess and now they go farther west than they ever have...and put them up at 4500 feet, where I'm sure they've never been before. UNR returns QB and RB who are fairly solid, while UB has 42 new faces on their team.
Wondering if you had any notes on this one?
Thanks
 
gps_3 said:
I saw that you eliminated Texas as a bet. You mind sharing some of your thoughts? I made that line much closer to a pick. I think my Texas # is solid, maybe I'm overrating Cal, haven't seen much of them to be honest. I don't like backing a true freshman QB making his first road start and laying more than a TD (see my thoughts on Alabama @ Ole Miss), and from what I've seen of Texas, a lot of their offensive success is predicated on throwing the ball downfield. Just seems that with the success they've had there the first 2 games that Beuchele is due for some regression, and a road start is as likely a spot as any. Haven't made a play on it, probably won't on the line tbh. Will look at the over though because I think both teams can score
Click to expand...


I am not sure that Beuchele needs to make a lot of plays to make that offense succeed. They can shove it down Cal's throat with the running game and cal likely has no answer. This is another game where Texas could just pound Swoopes late at them when they are beat up and tired too. Cal's defense is just not good, however you want to slice it. The problem I had with laying that much on the road is that I am not completely sold on the Texas pass rush being able to generate enough problems for Cal's offense to cover the biggish number. And I just got backdoored by these jerks and I could see a similar type game breaking out. I will say that Texas has a lot more depth than a team like SDSU so some of that late tiring we saw from the SDSU defense may not be in play as much with the horns. Webb was probably the player I saw most improvement in from first game to second game. He is much more comfortable in the offense than he was against Hawaii and much more accurate against SDSU as well. If he keeps improving, they can be pretty good on offense and by most scouts accounts, he is considered good already so there is that. I do think Texas has an advantage in being able to prepare for a somewhat one dimensional offense compared to what Texas is doing and the horns did rest a few players last week. I would say that Beuchele is not like most true freshmen. While I agree, there will be a bad game somewhere on the road for Beuchele as it is the nature of the beast, Cal is the worst tackling defense Texas has played so far this year and probably the worst tackling team they will face until November 5th. So i just think this is a hard spot for him to struggle and I think Texas could succeed without him being that good anyway. I couldn't touch Cal in this game .... a train is rolling... but I just don't see a ton of value in expecting Texas to win by dd (which is essentially what you are betting with the horns at this number) on the Bears home field to make a play on it.
 
jdoggoakley said:
Curious to your thoughts on Reno Saturday night. Found several nuggets I like about this one and am happy to go into detail if you want. UB is a mess and now they go farther west than they ever have...and put them up at 4500 feet, where I'm sure they've never been before. UNR returns QB and RB who are fairly solid, while UB has 42 new faces on their team.
Wondering if you had any notes on this one?
Thanks
Click to expand...


I would love to hear your thoughts Jdog.

Buffalo is actually a team I am little behind the curve on at the moment. I know they had a bunch of turnovers and a deceiving loss to Albany in their opener and I know they are off a bye .... Hard for me to get a read off of that game given personnel turnover. And Nevada played against the option and then at Notre Dame off their loss to Texas so I am not sure how much I can take from those games either. Help would be appreciated.
 
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