time to post my week 3 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Record goes here

Locked In
#122 TOSU -29.5 Grade A+ 1-0
#138 Terps -3 -115 Grade D+ 1-1
#151 uga -4 -120 Grade C 1-2
#161 Illinois +15 ( large ) Grade C- 1-3
#164 tcu -8 2-3
#166 Idaho -2.5 Grade F 2-4
#210 Nebraska -10 3-4
#199 Arizona State -14
#183 navy -12.5 D- 4-4
#128 cmich +7.5 Grade F- 4-5
#111 Indiana -6 Grade F 4-6
#103 Latech +7 -120 winner grade A+ 5-6
#133 Georgia Southern +22 Grade B+ 6-6
#193 USC -17 Grade kicked out of school 6-7
SIX POINT TEASER UCLA-2/Arkansas +8.5 7-7
#137/138 WVU/Maryland over 57.5 ( I really like this one ) 8-7
#127/128 Syracuse/Central Michigan Under 51.5Grade A+ 9-7
#155/156 Arkansas State/Miami Fl over 56 10-7
#147/148 Western Kentucky/MTSU under 65.5 Grade B 10-8
#197/198 NIU/UNLV Over 52.5 11-8
#149/150 Kansas/Duke over 54 11-9
#131 Boise State -16 Grade F+ 12-9
#105 Houston +17.5 winner, grade C+ 13-9
#142 Virginia +7 -116 Grade A 14-9
Miami Oh/Michigan over 23 2h 14-10

Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9
week 3 14-10-1, 2.9, 5.8

Strong Leans

Houston +17 added to plays
Houston/BYU over 57.5
UVA +7 added to plays
Rutgers +3.5 Eliminated
Kansas +17 ( need 17 minimum to consider and has moved down )
USC -19.5 ( downward move into range and played )

Talk me off leans

Miami Ohio +30 ( Eliminated )
Ohio/Marshall over 56.5 Eliminated
ncstate/usf under 52 Eliminated
UCLA -7 added to teaser
Arkansas +3 added to teaser
EMU +14 ( eliminated )
Ga Southern +22 ( a lot of pts for that running clock )
ISU 13.5 ( eliminated on downward move )
AFA -12 ( no confidence in either pr number ) eliminated
 
Last edited:
Should note that I have work to do on the Cmich game. I just don't think it closes over a TD so felt I could lock it and get off later if need be.
 
The reason I like USC is that we saw what BC is when they cannot run and I cant figure out how they run on USC
 
Ya I expect them to score a ton of pts ... but have to see how they actually line it to know if I am going to take anything involving the total.

Uga line is moving ... would lay 5.5 for sure, 6 maybe ... and not over 6 fwiw
 
on a few, lean tha other way on a few an agree on some of ur leans. GL this week kyle
 
You have an interesting selection of plays IMO. That is neither here nor there, but they are the type that will either make you look brilliant or look like a well...clown

gl this week
 
I collect clowns in my car .. keep the losing tickets in the glove compartment.

Thanks Sigo
 
I want to bet Tenn +21.. Am I crazy to get in the sooners way?

Line should be +17, 17.5 imo. Tenn on road though.
 
Its an interesting game gyno. Tennessee will not have line of scrimmage superiority this week though. Not sure how they will react when picking on somebody their own size.
 
Some openers are just crazy to me (Navy, ASU, UGA). Not sure if I'm on something or onto something...
 
One by one

Gyno -- Actually my PR is in line with your line of -17. Stoops has been on record about the SEC being over rated and will lay the wood if he can and I think he might have that chance here. 20/21 is a tad high but I just have no interest in backing the vols in this one.

Gar -- They aren't going to push OU around ...and their defense will have to defend more plays while their offense will have to make plays in the passing game out of necessity rather than when they feel like it.

bjorks -- They screwed up the uga line pretty bad. I was super high on Navy preseason and suffice it to say I have not dropped them in my pr. Texas State won 65-0 over Arkansas Pine Bluff but that team lost 62-11 at Arkansas State the year before so it doesn't mean all that much. The Bobcats have had extra time to prepare but they switched to a 4-2-5 defense and that is a horrible way to try and stop the option so they are left with either changing base settings while learning a new scheme or trying to stop it with their base and I don't think either will work. A lot of the MAC teams use that 4-2-5 and as Garfather has pointed out to me, those MAC clubs struggle stopping the option attack. They did see Navy's option in 2012 and focused heavily on stopping Reynolds and it largely worked for them. So there is the chance they will scheme properly on the defensive side of the ball. But that was a different Navy club that was shut out by SJSU, held to 17 by Army, scored just 24 against FAU, etc. etc. ..... this year's Navy team is for real. I think their number for ASU is defensible..... it is around what I would have had two weeks ago. Since then, I have dropped Colorado quite a bit and raised ASU quite a bit though.

Press -- I am just backing the better team at home with Idaho against WMU.

brsport - I will probably regret not taking ucla -7 ... on two levels .. 1. I absolutely knew the line was going to rise so I should have taken it for value and bailed on it if I didn't like it much. 2. I like it a little more each time I revisit it. The reason it is in the talk me off lean category is that I am concerned that the nasty fatties on the DL for the horns do to UCLA what the fatties on the DL for the Cavaliers did to them which was completely shut down their offense and that perhaps UCLA doesn't get a few million defensive scores to get them their points. Texas also will have a week under the belt of the QB, so some improvement should come with that. It will be very difficult for me to add to the card unless I take it on a teaser of some sort now because passing on laying a td and then betting at over a td isn't the way I like to live.

bjorks -- Well a lot of guys I respect are telling me I am an idiot on that lean. They played a game last year that you almost have to throw out where BYU won by a point despite a big yardage advantage. The reason I like Houston is that it is too high by PR, there has been a major adjustment to both teams ratings according to the market that seems drastic based on limited games ( BYU should not be more at home to Houston than they are to UConn on the road ). The Cougars defense is pretty darn good in my estimation. They skunked Grambling State last week while holding them to 11 first downs in the game and their performance against UTSA was really solid as well. They held them to 17 first downs and 27 points despite 6 turnovers from the offense. Now, BYU's offense is not UTSA or Grambling State of course but I think the Cougars have a legit defense and they were embarrassed by BYU last year. I think the line is an over-reaction to the first few weeks, in this case. I made it lower and I had BYU against UConn and I had them unposted in a 2h play last week ( not near computer and no time to post ) against Texas so it isn't like I am sleeping on their team.
 
clowncar said:
bjorks -- Well a lot of guys I respect are telling me I am an idiot on that lean. They played a game last year that you almost have to throw out where BYU won by a point despite a big yardage advantage. The reason I like Houston is that it is too high by PR, there has been a major adjustment to both teams ratings according to the market that seems drastic based on limited games ( BYU should not be more at home to Houston than they are to UConn on the road ). The Cougars defense is pretty darn good in my estimation. They skunked Grambling State last week while holding them to 11 first downs in the game and their performance against UTSA was really solid as well. They held them to 17 first downs and 27 points despite 6 turnovers from the offense. Now, BYU's offense is not UTSA or Grambling State of course but I think the Cougars have a legit defense and they were embarrassed by BYU last year. I think the line is an over-reaction to the first few weeks, in this case. I made it lower and I had BYU against UConn and I had them unposted in a 2h play last week ( not near computer and no time to post ) against Texas so it isn't like I am sleeping on their team.
Click to expand...

First game at home, riding tons of momentum after two highly successful roadtrips. Passing game is starting to click (as much as it ever will with a spaz like Hill back there), he is identifying his favorite targets now. OL is monstrous and it won't take 30 minutes to break down a bunch of future NFLers this week. Game is at some elevation, and feels like a spot where it could snowball really quickly if UH is going 3-and-out. Cougars from Provo put up a big number here, Cougars from Houston will need to fight fire with fire and I don't see any evidence they can. Great passing offense appears to be by reputation only at this point.

I certainly don't think you're an idiot for this lean and I won't talk anyone off anything, but let's put it this way, I think I'm an idiot for not laying the 15 immediately.
 
TheGarfather said:
First game at home, riding tons of momentum after two highly successful roadtrips. Passing game is starting to click (as much as it ever will with a spaz like Hill back there), he is identifying his favorite targets now. OL is monstrous and it won't take 30 minutes to break down a bunch of future NFLers this week. Game is at some elevation, and feels like a spot where it could snowball really quickly if UH is going 3-and-out. Cougars from Provo put up a big number here, Cougars from Houston will need to fight fire with fire and I don't see any evidence they can. Great passing offense appears to be by reputation only at this point.

I certainly don't think you're an idiot for this lean and I won't talk anyone off anything, but let's put it this way, I think I'm an idiot for not laying the 15 immediately.
Click to expand...


WR's are good and Okornholio is not the worst and put up big numbers on BYU last year ( Though I am throwing out last years game because it was so weird ). I agree if Houston is going 3 and out a lot it could snow ball but this passing attack is a lot better than the first two they faced. I mean they caught Texas at literally the perfect time and UConn is just plain awful. I just think we are getting a little carried away thinking byu deserves to lay this many to a quality team like Houston.
 
TheGarfather said:
No lack of systemic familiarity here. Maybe a little money line to go with your spread?
Click to expand...


nah .. dabbling in a little ml on Illinois at some point though. I don't think PJ loses to another team running the TO. But that clock will be running and running and running all game long and that makes a big number tough to cover. And of course you have the fact that both defenses practice against it and all the coaches know the principles and how to defend it.
 
I initially put that total in the high 50s based on what GT often does to lesser front sevens, but had to revise it to the mid 50s (and could be talked lower still) based on a continually running clock and the fact that there won't be (m)any missed assignments which is where chunk plays tend to come from.
 
Before you read my thoughts in the thread I started, can you tell me why you lean Eastern Michigan at +14?
 
I already read them for full disclosure. The reason I lean EMU is largely my belief that ODU can stop no one. That usually makes it tough for a team to cover three scores or protect the backdoor when they are up 20 and not trying to score anymore. I like teams the week after facing really good athletes when they match up with athletes more similar to themselves the following week. The whole game slows down for them. I mean I get that they handled Idaho last year at a similar number only outgaining them by a little over a hundred yards and giving up 505 yards. It just isn't the type of team that has proven to me that they can beat fbs schools by this number. PR makes it lower as well. Some concern I have emu over rated ... though hard to imagine how.
 
clowncar said:
Utep was able to run the ball and control it against Texas Tech and if Utep can I have to think Arkansas can.
Click to expand...

Thanks. Tech's offense hasn't seem to click yet. IF, and not saying it does, I wonder if Arky can keep up.

I wonder what the total will be for this game
 
clowncar said:
I already read them for full disclosure. The reason I lean EMU is largely my belief that ODU can stop no one. That usually makes it tough for a team to cover three scores or protect the backdoor when they are up 20 and not trying to score anymore. I like teams the week after facing really good athletes when they match up with athletes more similar to themselves the following week. The whole game slows down for them. I mean I get that they handled Idaho last year at a similar number only outgaining them by a little over a hundred yards and giving up 505 yards. It just isn't the type of team that has proven to me that they can beat fbs schools by this number. PR makes it lower as well. Some concern I have emu over rated ... though hard to imagine how.
Click to expand...


Good points. I would argue ODU has the advantage as well of going for superior athletes to similar or inferior this week as well? (though not to the degree of playing against Florida)


The differences between the Idaho example (which is a solid comp) and this one, imo, are ODU's ability to run the ball a lot better than last year. Last year Johnson was injured (true freshman) and the offense could only must 88 yards rushing on 30 attempts. This year, they've already run for 387 yards (almost 200 vs. NC State, who were clearly focused on stopping the pass)

The other difference is the defense is improved (which is hard not to be). They added two junior college transfers to the lineup (one at DE and one at OLB). Both these guys have good size and have helped to shore up the line of scrimmage (along with having everyone back along the front 7) Defense is still a huge question mark, I agree and the backdoor is a concern, but I think the one dimensional nature of Eastern Michigan will make the defense look better. With their lack of passing threat, we can match up 2 pretty solid corners on the wideouts and focus on stopping the run. The stronger part o of the defense (lol) is the run defense. That is why I think it's a bad matchup for Eastern Michigan. Also, Morgan State passed the ball at will on EMU and then I went back to the following game for Morgan State and they couldn't pass a lick vs. Holy Cross. How well will EMU's pass defense hold up? And if they just play a soft zone and keep everything in front, will they be able to stop the running game?

The other concern for the cover, is Eastern Michigan will try to maintain possession and run the clock down, which is what every team that plays at Foreman Field does. I'm sure the game plan is the same as every other FCS or lower level FBS team, run the clock down, get first downs, and play a soft coverage on defense to prevent the big plays.

I do think this will be ugly though. I expect them to be fired up for the first FBS Home Game and I expect them to jump out early. And when Eastern gets behind and has to try and pass, how much success will they have?
 
Elbutre88 said:
w/you on a bunch. if you get a chance, would love to hear your thoughts on eers/terps.
Click to expand...

This is largely a PR play and just my general view of the two teams. Terps struggled against a solid DL of the Bulls of USF to run the ball but face an easier opponent defensively here. This will be a really high scoring game. I have Terps with a slightly better rated defense and a considerably higher rated offense. They are at home ... this is lined as if they were about even teams. Terps could be representing the bigten when all is said and done and I think they take care of business after a less than stellar effort last week.
 
Dollaz said:
Good points. I would argue ODU has the advantage as well of going for superior athletes to similar or inferior this week as well? (though not to the degree of playing against Florida)


The differences between the Idaho example (which is a solid comp) and this one, imo, are ODU's ability to run the ball a lot better than last year. Last year Johnson was injured (true freshman) and the offense could only must 88 yards rushing on 30 attempts. This year, they've already run for 387 yards (almost 200 vs. NC State, who were clearly focused on stopping the pass)

The other difference is the defense is improved (which is hard not to be). They added two junior college transfers to the lineup (one at DE and one at OLB). Both these guys have good size and have helped to shore up the line of scrimmage (along with having everyone back along the front 7) Defense is still a huge question mark, I agree and the backdoor is a concern, but I think the one dimensional nature of Eastern Michigan will make the defense look better. With their lack of passing threat, we can match up 2 pretty solid corners on the wideouts and focus on stopping the run. The stronger part o of the defense (lol) is the run defense. That is why I think it's a bad matchup for Eastern Michigan. Also, Morgan State passed the ball at will on EMU and then I went back to the following game for Morgan State and they couldn't pass a lick vs. Holy Cross. How well will EMU's pass defense hold up? And if they just play a soft zone and keep everything in front, will they be able to stop the running game?

The other concern for the cover, is Eastern Michigan will try to maintain possession and run the clock down, which is what every team that plays at Foreman Field does. I'm sure the game plan is the same as every other FCS or lower level FBS team, run the clock down, get first downs, and play a soft coverage on defense to prevent the big plays.

I do think this will be ugly though. I expect them to be fired up for the first FBS Home Game and I expect them to jump out early. And when Eastern gets behind and has to try and pass, how much success will they have?
Click to expand...

Fair enough. They could certainly blow EMU out if EMU struggles on offense as I do think ODU scores like they usually do. I can't worry too much about the FBS home game angle ... not that it might not exist but I don't have data to say it is a winning angle. Emu could be up for what they should think is a winnable game. I am probably passing on EMU ... but this line says Florida -24 to ODU on a neutral which I believe is really short.
 
Agree with you on Houston. Number seems inflated. My number for the game is between 12/13

Houston22.77....
BYU35.45....
58.22....
-12.6809/11/2014(Home)

<tbody>
</tbody>

Took some at 18.5. Hopefully it'll get to 20 in the next day or so.
 
clowncar said:
Fair enough. They could certainly blow EMU out if EMU struggles on offense as I do think ODU scores like they usually do. I can't worry too much about the FBS home game angle ... not that it might not exist but I don't have data to say it is a winning angle. Emu could be up for what they should think is a winnable game. I am probably passing on EMU ... but this line says Florida -24 to ODU on a neutral which I believe is really short.
Click to expand...

Yeah dont have stats on the angle, just know they really are focused
On move up to FBS and put a lot into the first game at home thing.

I cant remember what the largest spread ODU had last year. Think low 20s vs Maryland. 24 is probably low tho @ Florida but dont think it would in the mid to high 30s.

Def the winnbable game angle for EMU.

If EMU had more of a threat passing, i would probably lay off.
 
Not from s carolina preaeason pr but that pr is long gone. I think you make a valid point when you flip the field. Uga gonna roll em though.
 
If you are going to bet bc like it is free money and give me a 17 then I have no choice...

Add

#193 USC -17
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

bookieassassin
WEEK 6
Replies
34
Views
2K
winners41
W
C
Ohio Derby Picks
Replies
5
Views
152
Inspekdah
Inspekdah
bookieassassin
WEEK 3
Replies
32
Views
2K
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
Mark's Moneymakers
college football week 3
Replies
0
Views
165
Mark's Moneymakers
Mark's Moneymakers
bookieassassin
WEEK 2
2
Replies
64
Views
3K
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
Back
Top