time to post my week 3 card so far

Don't understand the Navy move unless they think Texas State has the recipe to defend them. Also AFA moving down is surprising to me.

Remaining non-totals on the radar but not played

Houston 18.5
maimi ohio 30
Rutgers 3.5
UVA 6.5 ( circled it ... not happy with value )
 
great tease, oppo on lville, and i'm with you on that navy movement. can't make sense of the logic here at all.
 
I think I mentioned in the thread ... and think I mentioned last week about it ... but we saw what happens to BC when they cannot run the ball. They are forced to pass with a QB who cannot pass. USC off a game vs a much tougher opponent and with more weapons than Pitt's one big receiving option. USC also off a game where the offense was held to 10 so pretty sure the offense has incentive to score after the defense did the heavy lifting in the last one. You also have a running QB who should find it tougher to scramble for yards. I don't get the movement because the matchup is wheelhouse for USC from an X's and O's standpoint and now with Stanford in the rearview mirror they have to think they have a shot at the playoff. Team overcame the off the field stuff week 1 and overcame a road game at Stanford week 2 .... think that says something about both the coach and the mental toughness of this team who rebounded end of last year after Kiffincancer got the axe. I just don't think a road trip across the country is the thing that will derail them. A lesser version of USC against a better version of BC rolled them by worse than the score indicated in a bowl game a few years back with the athletic difference being quite visible. Of course, it is USC .. so the move could be slimshady too.
 
Totals ..

Add

#137/138 WVU/Maryland over 57.5 ( I really like this one )
#127/128 Syracuse/Central Michigan Under 51.5
#155/156 Arkansas State/Miami Fl over 56
#147/148 Western Kentucky/MTSU under 65.5
#197/198 NIU/UNLV Over 52.5
 
pressitup said:
hmmm was hoping to see the under n lou/va
Click to expand...


Not enough value for me. Don't even lean it at that number. Obviously I think it will be a defensive game but for some reason I think both hit at least 20 and I don't like going under mid to high 40's when that is the case. 24-23 type game one way or the other .... I like UVA to possibly get the upset here. I circled it before the year as a spot to play on uva but I was expecting more .... I guess the fact they "beat" ucla on the field ( not the scoreboard ), removes a lot of value from them going forward near term until they throw a stinker that people actually watch ( last week was a stinker but no one knows about it ).
 
Best thread on the internet......

Not that it matters to anyone, but I totally agree with your thoughts on Houston. Prior to the season, I thought Houston had a shot at running the table this year. Pretty much everyone is back on both sides of the ball, and I really liked their defense coming back (9 returning starters who accounted for 17 INTs and 35 sacks last year). Obviously, both teams have have been on opposite spectrums so far, but I don't think there's any doubt that the offensive performance from O'Korn was a bit of an aberration and the Houston defense has been just fine, as you mentioned.

BYU got to play the majority of their first game against perhaps the worst quasi-regular in CFB (Whitmer) and a kid thrust into his first start in a horrible spot (Swoopes). Classic trap for BYU, as they couldn't have looked better, and Houston has disappointed everyone. Too much talent on that Houston offense to not get going. The line value is too much to pass up IMO. If BYU blows them out and avoids the live backdoor, I'll tip my cap.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Best thread on the internet......

Not that it matters to anyone, but I totally agree with your thoughts on Houston. Prior to the season, I thought Houston had a shot at running the table this year. Pretty much everyone is back on both sides of the ball, and I really liked their defense coming back (9 returning starters who accounted for 17 INTs and 35 sacks last year). Obviously, both teams have have been on opposite spectrums so far, but I don't think there's any doubt that the offensive performance from O'Korn was a bit of an aberration and the Houston defense has been just fine, as you mentioned.

BYU got to play the majority of their first game against perhaps the worst quasi-regular in CFB (Whitmer) and a kid thrust into his first start in a horrible spot (Swoopes). Classic trap for BYU, as they couldn't have looked better, and Houston has disappointed everyone. Too much talent on that Houston offense to not get going. The line value is too much to pass up IMO. If BYU blows them out and avoids the live backdoor, I'll tip my cap.
Click to expand...


Tend to agree with everything you wrote about the game and I see it the same way. No downward momentum yet ... it will come gameday I think..... most people who like Houston have no reason to invest yet. As soon as it ticks down it will fly down to 17. How is that for a prediction?
 
Br@ssknux said:
Best thread on the internet......

Not that it matters to anyone, but I totally agree with your thoughts on Houston. Prior to the season, I thought Houston had a shot at running the table this year. Pretty much everyone is back on both sides of the ball, and I really liked their defense coming back (9 returning starters who accounted for 17 INTs and 35 sacks last year). Obviously, both teams have have been on opposite spectrums so far, but I don't think there's any doubt that the offensive performance from O'Korn was a bit of an aberration and the Houston defense has been just fine, as you mentioned.

BYU got to play the majority of their first game against perhaps the worst quasi-regular in CFB (Whitmer) and a kid thrust into his first start in a horrible spot (Swoopes). Classic trap for BYU, as they couldn't have looked better, and Houston has disappointed everyone. Too much talent on that Houston offense to not get going. The line value is too much to pass up IMO. If BYU blows them out and avoids the live backdoor, I'll tip my cap.
Click to expand...

yours is right there when you post

maybe my fave cfb dude here nuxx:shake:
 
clowncar said:
I think I mentioned in the thread ... and think I mentioned last week about it ... but we saw what happens to BC when they cannot run the ball. They are forced to pass with a QB who cannot pass. USC off a game vs a much tougher opponent and with more weapons than Pitt's one big receiving option. USC also off a game where the offense was held to 10 so pretty sure the offense has incentive to score after the defense did the heavy lifting in the last one. You also have a running QB who should find it tougher to scramble for yards. I don't get the movement because the matchup is wheelhouse for USC from an X's and O's standpoint and now with Stanford in the rearview mirror they have to think they have a shot at the playoff. Team overcame the off the field stuff week 1 and overcame a road game at Stanford week 2 .... think that says something about both the coach and the mental toughness of this team who rebounded end of last year after Kiffincancer got the axe. I just don't think a road trip across the country is the thing that will derail them. A lesser version of USC against a better version of BC rolled them by worse than the score indicated in a bowl game a few years back with the athletic difference being quite visible. Of course, it is USC .. so the move could be slimshady too.
Click to expand...

You and wise have big differences of opinion about the Trojan talent.
 
Aha You make me very happy when I see 15 sides up there. :tiphat:

GL as always. Shouldn't u be concerned that West Va has owned this series in recent years?.
Love your Idaho and so Cal plays.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
You may have beaten the open more this week than any on this site, no?
Click to expand...


Ya it is shaping up to be a huge week against the number but there has been huge movement on Saturdays this year so who knows ...

But ...
#122 TOSU -29.5 ..... now 32/32.5
#138 Terps -3 -115 .. now 3.5 .. so moved off a 3
#151 uga -4 -120 ... No mystery where that one was going and now 5.5/6. Wish I could have got the -1's that were out there.
#161 Illinois +15 ( large ) ... RAS on it after me ... now 13/13.5
#164 tcu -8 ... That thing just kept on going up ... now 14 and I would prefer minny at that number
#166 Idaho -2.5 ....now -3 -115 across .... so a key half pt there
#210 Nebraska -10 ...... now 10.5
#199 Arizona State -14 ..... 15.5/16 now ... so got one less score than a lot of folks
#183 navy -12.5 ...... -9.5/10 ..... whoops but don't get it.
#128 cmich +7.5 .......now 6/6.5 ... and not even a huge fan... I just knew it wasn't closing above a td
#111 Indiana -6 ... bg actually opened -3 somewhere !!! now sits -7/-7.5
#103 Latech +7 -120 .. played in front of RAS and now 3.5/4
#133 Georgia Southern +22 ...now a sea of 18's ...
#193 USC -17 .....played after the downward move and now it sits on 17 still so I think I got in at the stopping point.
SIX POINT TEASER UCLA-2/Arkansas +8.5 ... lost value
#137/138 WVU/Maryland over 57.5 ( I really like this one ) ..... total has dropped. I don't get it .. but haven't checked forecasts on the overs
#127/128 Syracuse/Central Michigan Under 51.5 ... now 50/50.5
#155/156 Arkansas State/Miami Fl over 56 down a lot ... like 53.5 now or so .. guess that is a whoops
#147/148 Western Kentucky/MTSU under 65.5 ....64.5 now
#197/198 NIU/UNLV Over 52.5 ....55.5 now
#149/150 Kansas/Duke over 54 ....55 or so now
#131 Boise State -16 ....same

And some of the leans ... Kansas moved down, Houston moved down, Rutgers moved down, ISU moved down ....

You would think this would be a good week.
 
clowncar said:
Don't understand the Navy move unless they think Texas State has the recipe to defend them. Also AFA moving down is surprising to me.
Click to expand...

Franchione says they've been full contact full pads for two weeks with scout team cutting blocking the defense. I don't know what different coaches do to prep for the option, but the XM radio guys implied it is too risky to lose a defender to injury by cutting him live in practice. I don't know. I've seen teams in real games that act afraid of cut blocks and they are tentative at hitting the gaps and edges. Maybe those teams didn't cut their defenders in practice? Just trying to contribute something to explaining the line movement. That might have nothing to do with it. Obviously a scout team isn't going to run it as good as Navy will. Maybe people thinking Reynolds won't be 100%? I'd rather have Navy.

Hope you have a great week.
 
bull said:
Aha You make me very happy when I see 15 sides up there. :tiphat:

GL as always. Shouldn't u be concerned that West Va has owned this series in recent years?.
Love your Idaho and so Cal plays.
Click to expand...


Couple years ago you told me I was missing out on my unplayed strong leans. Betting less per bet and more games now and trying to play heavy early in the year and tone it down as they tighten ... I used to pass on plays in September because I already had big cards and then play things with less value later in the year because the pickins are slimmer late.
 
clowncar said:
Why .. I don't cap fcs but tell me why
Click to expand...
SELA is a pretty damn good team

Tanner Lee may play, but I looked at this one early in the year. If Devin plays it is just a bonus.

Bryan Bennett is good...Tulane will have their hands full

[TABLE="class: tablehead, width: 612"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11.3333330154419px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">[TR="class: oddrow team-23-294"]
[TD]Sat, Aug 30[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1-0 (0-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-253"]
[TD]Sat, Sept 6[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]2-0 (0-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
SELA was in the quarters last year in FCS

Bennett is an Oregon transfer and can run and play....Tulane's D line hasnt been great

Rex said 7....If that is the case I will be on SELA big

SELA is top 5 FCS I think with a ton of in state that didn't like getting passed over
 
I gotta warn you off Rutgers. I'm adding PSU if I can get a straight 3. Since you're going to school me on the Terps play, I can't have you going 2-0 against me this week, can I?
 
Ha Mat.

I am probably not playing Rutgers when push comes to shove but would love to hear your reasoning on that one. PSU was one of the slowest teams I have seen play this year. Play hard, well coached ... but their oline cant run block and they have no speed at the skill positions. Akron was a visibly faster team than PSU and that score was deceiving with all the Akron drops on offense. Anyway .. interested in your take, Mat.
 
Thanks for the info Twinkie .. I will look into it more. Probably get Bull, Dwight and tru to chime in .. or anyone else who follows fcs. All I can do is nod my head to what you are saying because I don't know better.
 
Well ... I will start talking about the ULM/LSU game the way I usually start looking at any game and that is the pr. Mine makes it a bit lower.

But I have a problem with ULM here because of the combination of their games. Let's look at the offense and defense through the first two games.

Offense Game 1 against Wake Forest -- 352 yards at 4.14 yards per play, 21 First downs and 10 offensive points. Other factors: failed 4th and 12 in the tweener zone from the Wake 34, punt from the Wake 37 ( 42 after intentional delay of game ), series starting first and ten at the wake 34 gets botched and they punt after losing yards, drive stop by wake extended with a roughing the kicker penalty and ulm scores a td on the drive, 1st and 5 at wake 33 ends up a punt. This is extremely alarming because of the context of what their defense did. I will get to that in a second ... but basically held Wake offense scoreless while holding them to 94 yards and 5 first downs. If you look at the ULM offensive numbers in the context of that it is beyond a miserable effort against the wake forest defense. You should "happen" into points when your defense dominates like that.

Offense game 2 against Idaho -- Obviously a better effort with 38 points, 534 yards and 29 first downs right? Well yes ... but it is extremely deceiving in my opinion. Because the Florida game was rained out, ULM had the benefit of a game under their belt where Idaho was basically playing their opener. It showed early with huge plays in the first quarter for ULM against the Vandals defense and they had Td drives of 81,77, and 83 on ten plays ( 241 yards or 24.1 yards per play ). Idaho got their bearings and it got tougher. Over their next 72 plays they had 293 yards at 4.06 yards per play and were 2 for 11 on third downs. In fact, they are 11 for 32 on third downs through two games which is pretty poor .. especially when you adjust for competition. Idaho came back in the game and ULM broke a tie game in the fourth quarter with a TD drive. The totality of it paints a clear picture of a poor offensive team.

I don't think they can make the big plays against LSU and the down and distance is going to make a poor third down team that much worse.

Defense game 1 -- Dominated Wake Forest, holding them to 5 first downs and 94 yards. But that is a Wake offense that had just 387 the following week against a Gardner Webb team that had 11 first downs and 131 yards. In other words, the Wake offensive performance against Gardner Webb was atrocious and they had to pass to succeed. GW lost to Furman 3-13 week 1 .. a team they beat by 7 the year prior in a season where their fbs opponent ( Marshall ) beat them 55-0. My point is that you have to take what the ULM defense accomplished in this game with a grain of salt.

Defense game 2 -- Idaho has an improved team but this was their first game of the year and to put up 442 yards of offense at 5.33 yards per play out of the gate on the road to a team who had already faced an ACC club ( albeit a terrible one ) is a little surprising. They surrendered a big lead at home and had to score in the last few minutes to seal it. Again .. just hard to get excited about it.

So when I look at the game ... I see ulm having down and distance issues, an inability to convert on third downs as it is in games against below average football teams spiraling even more against LSU and a defense that just gets absolutely worn down by the Tigers running game.

LSU could be flat ... LSU could call off the dogs ahead low twenties knowing ulm will never score in the twenties on them ... and rest players while they give other players reps ... but this game matches up for LSU to stomp from an X's and O's standpoint.

I passed because of historical stuff with Miles in this situation and because the actual pr number was lower by a few points and I don't like to fade my pr because at the end of the day it is my basic building block.
 
I'll keep it brief --

Rutgers gave up 500 passing yards to WSU and 250 rushing yards to Howard. Their defense isn't very good. On the other side, it's a matchup problem. Rutgers game is power running and drop back downfield passing. PSU can flat out stuff a downhill run game, and they can get after the passer, especially vs a marginal OL like Rutger's. Pressure Nova and he'll cough up some jump balls. We've seen it time and again. I have PSU throwing at will and possibly getting some semblance of a run game going. I see Rutgers doing neither consistently.
 
Rutgers was one of only four teams to give up more than 300 yards per game passing last year so it isn't like the bad pass defense is a new phenomenon or a mystery. Good stuff, Mat. ... I just think psu has an over rated pass attack ...I wish ucf had played a game since Ireland because I am down on their team this year and would like to see if the defense rebounded.

averaging 60ish a game right now on the ground so I wouldn't expect too much of a run game from them and while Nova isn't my favorite he is capable. Akron had plays available .. rarely see that many drops in cfb anymore.
 
Add

Houston +17.5

Unfortunately, this game reminds me of the weeknight game with Miami Fl at Louisville ... in that the game bothered me all week, I wanted to play it ... but something kept tickling in the back of mind, telling me not to. And then I take it anyway. Miami Fl was the wrong side and I may be lamenting taking Houston tonight.
 
I think Mat made some great points about the matchup concerns for Rutgers and after revisiting the game, decided to eliminate Rutgers.

Knocked off some others ....

That leaves me with Virginia as the only remaining lean. Today is totals movement day so I may take a peak at the ones that move to see if the other side is worth a look afterwards ... otherwise we are pretty close to looking at my final card for the week.
 
clowncar said:
I think Mat made some great points about the matchup concerns for Rutgers and after revisiting the game, decided to eliminate Rutgers.

Knocked off some others ....

That leaves me with Virginia as the only remaining lean. Today is totals movement day so I may take a peak at the ones that move to see if the other side is worth a look afterwards ... otherwise we are pretty close to looking at my final card for the week.
Click to expand...

Makes sense. I was looking hard at Rutgers too because I'm an admirer of Paul James, but that defense is just too much to overcome. Ranked 115th in YPP in FBS after 2 weeks and the competition is Wazzou and Howard. PSU is going to have issues getting into the end zone IMO this year, but I'll need more than a FG to back that Rutgers squad with that defense failing around.
 
One thing that jumped out to me is that ULM has 10 sacks in 2 games (#4 ncaa), they had 16 sacks in 12 games last year.

Now that was against a trFr WF Qb with an OL learning new schemes and Idaho playing their first game also with a Qb making their first ever start (all 4 ULM sacks vs Idaho were 1st half).

I don't think they will, but if we see ULM pressuring LSU's QB(s) then they might have something going forward in Sun Belt play. Again though, it is likely more a result of the circumstances surrounding their first two opponents.
 
Twinkie is high on SELA and rightfully so. I have bet on Green Wave both weeks. Wek one they had their chances to make me a winner but their D could not stop Tulsa late. Last week they looked pretty bad against Tech. This week is a no play for me, but certainly the FCS team has a god shot here at a SU win. My .02 worth.
 
3 pages thus far and not a peep on why you like Illinois...in what I assume is your biggest bet of the week.
 
Welp, it's tough luck when the team you bet on completely forgets how to play football. Houston appears pretty good at playing the role of the Washington Generals.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Welp, it's tough luck when the team you bet on completely forgets how to play football. Houston appears pretty good at playing the role of the Washington Generals.
Click to expand...

Hard to believe after that start that the game would end up a relatively routine cover for Houston.
 
ADD

#142 Virginia +7 -116

I mentioned in my season wins thread that I was taking Virginia against Louisville before the season started. I admit that I was expecting more and now I am getting less than I thought at that time and paying a premium for getting the peace of mind of the full TD and extra point. I buy to 7 quite often and it is a guilty pleasure of sorts for me and probably a consistent error mathematically. This may get hit up somewhere I can play and I will regret paying extra but I just couldn't let this game pass..
 
Not sure Houston backers deserved the money .... winning a turnover battle ... unheard of.

[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
HOU[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
BYU[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]6-15[/TD]
[TD]10-18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[TD]1-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]325[/TD]
[TD]523[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]315[/TD]
[TD]200[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att
[/TD]
[TD]31-53[/TD]
[TD]21-34[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]5.9[/TD]
[TD]5.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]323[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]0.8[/TD]
[TD]5.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]8-83[/TD]
[TD]11-98[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]24:30[/TD]
[TD]35:30[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Nice win on Houston. I wouldn't say you got lucky, especially based on the way the game unfolded, but I would say if you play that over and over, BYU covers 18.5 more than half the time.
 
TheGarfather said:
Nice win on Houston. I wouldn't say you got lucky, especially based on the way the game unfolded, but I would say if you play that over and over, BYU covers 18.5 more than half the time.
Click to expand...

Based on eye test of the game they played, I agree.
 
clowncar said:
313 more rushing yards ...

BTW ... is hill a Heisman candidate ?
Click to expand...

I guess anyone can be a candidate, should he win.....no.
As I said during the in-game, they play a horrible schedule and he will pad stats against some horrific teams this year. When the best team you play is BSU or Cal(hard to believe I typed that, right?) you aren't going to win.

Hill is not a good passer, he's a RB playing QB. Tebow comparisons be damned, Tebow was one of the best college QB's ever, Hill is not.
 
I have no idea what in the hell BYU was doing after they had a 20 pt lead, I still can't believe my BYU ticket didn't cash. The last two plays before half were comical. Congrats on the other Cougars.
 
clowncar said:
Hard to believe after that start that the game would end up a relatively routine cover for Houston.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I don't know the last time I'd seen such ineptitude from a team as I saw from Houston in the 1Q last night. They couldn't snap it, they couldn't hold on a FG, dropped passes, a guy catches a ball wide open with a foot out of bounds, etc.

BYU killed themselves with turnovers, but also had a lot of penalties. At least O'Korn got himself going though. Houston certainly didn't have their A game, so to be in it with BYU last night bodes well for them, inexplicable Hail Mary notwithstanding.
 
Two Utes nailed it. He was really overthrowing the receivers a lot. I think there are better candidates out there.
 
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