time to post my week 2 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
16-15 Last week minus 0.7 units. Could have been a good week but didn't run well in the coin flips. I bolded the ones I like most. Added week 1 mia 1h und 27.5 and mia +4.5 in this thread ... 1-1 ... 17-16 minus 0.8 units.



Locked In:
#301 Arizona -6.5 -120 loser, Grade B+, 0-1
#320 Army -2.5 winner , Grade A, 1-1
#310 Iowa State +12.5 , winner , Grade N/A didn't watch haven't reviewed box yet, 2-1
#323 Navy -3.5 winner, Grade B, 3-1
#327 WKU +7 loser, grade B, 3-2
#335 South Alabama Pick winner grade B+, 4-2
#345 Eastern Michigan +38 loser, grade F-, 4-3
#355 MTSU +17.5 winner, grade C-, 5-3
#360 UNM +27 loser Grade D, 5-4
#362 Troy State +18.5 winner, Grade A- 6-4
#364 South Carolina -13.5 loser, grade D, 6-5
#386 Boise State -10 winner, grade A+, 7-5
#366 Auburn -30 winner, grade A, 8-5
#306 Washington State -2.5 loser, Grade C, 8-6
#327/328 WKU/Illinois under 64 loser Grade F, 8-7
#339/340 USC/Stanford under 55 winner grade A, 9-7
#341/342 Akron/penn State over 51 loser , grade F, 9-8
#349/350 ODU/NCSU over 64 winner, grade B+, 10-8
#355/366 MTSU/Minnesota under 51.5 winner, grade C 10-9
#323/324 Navy/Temple over 55 Push, grade C+ 10-9-1
#322 Toledo +4.5 Loser, Grade F 10-10-1
#321/322 Missouri/Toledo over 59.5 Winner grade B, 11-10-1
#367 Georgia Tech -10 winner, grade D, 12-10-1
#369 Maryland -12.5 loser, grade B+, 12-11-1
#377 Virginia Tech +12 winner Grade A+, 13-11-1
$317/318 Cmich/Purdue under 54 loser, grade B+, 13-12-1
Utep 21.5 winner Grade A 14-12-1
Utep/TexTech und 66 winner Grade A 15-12-1

2h BC +1 grade C-16-12-1
2h Pitt/BC under 24 Grade B 17-12-1

Strong Leans
#377 Virginia Tech +12
#353 Idaho +14 eliminated
#369 Maryland Fightin' Timh's -12.5 added to plays
#322 Toledo +5 ( I am betting it. Just a matter of at what # ) added

Talk me off leans
Vanderbilt +20 Eliminated- I can't back them
Pitt -4 Eliminated - Think Twinkie hit it on the head. Game is trouble.
#390 UTEP +20.5
#379 Oklahoma -24.5 eliminated, may add if a 23.5 popped but that seems unlikely
UNC -15 Eliminated
#371 Michigan +4.5
#367 Georgia Tech -10 ( I like the schedule situation ) added
#339 USC +2.5 ( Had their oline played slightly better week 1 I would have played already ) eliminated
#316 Northwestern -6.5 ( already have a losing season wins bet on them ) eliminated, I lost the number and can't do this

Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9
 
Last edited:
I will talk you off of Pitt:

Road juice in conference on Thursday night. Pitt off a thrashing 62-0 and BC off an unimpressive win against Mass. Oh and the ACC.

Fuck. That. Game.


Bet it for peanuts.
 
Like Scary to bounce back, but a little tepid there. Either TAMU is that good or Scry ain't what we were sold....OR somewhere in the middle



Tulane vs GT thoughts if you got the time bro:shake:
 
Davis likely out for S Carolina. Don't care. This is such a dramatic adjustment off of one game that I just cannot help myself. laid dd to TAMU, how am I going to pass on this # with ECU? This isn't a little bit off by pr heading into week 1, it is WAY off. Willing to give them another shot.
 
I dunno .. by pr it is very slightly less but not a fan of the matchup. Don't think Tulane can be ready for this because they had to spend the time prepping for a conference opponent week 1. Deflating loss there and the Wave run defense not quite as good game 1 as what we saw last year. So I won't be involved ... slight advantage to Tulane if they are prepared ... medium advantage to GT if they are not ... and I sort of think it will be the later because of the circumstances.
 
I assume you're aware Gautsche is doubtful for UNM? I took the 27 as well and was quickly informed me he was hurt, which I overlooked. Still think it should be good regardless but from a numbers standpoint, not nearly as much value as I saw originally.
 
ManchesterUk said:
Ive no idea who they play or if you are actually not watching,but Chuckie doesnt look right.... just incase

GL K
Click to expand...

Not watching. Thanks for the update Manchester. Not much offensive talent around him for this campaign.... if he plays bad they are in trouble.
 
Curious on the love for NM? I'm seeing some of you guys who talk together are playing..
 
Lind -- ya he left the miner game late with a Hammy. Mitchem played a few possessions .. didn't look all that great but what can you expect there? I think they will be fine.

Hunt -- Largely a nonbeliever in ASU more than a believer in UNM. For me there is a pretty large disparity in pr # and market # ( accounting for QB issue ). I think UNM can grind some clock and first downs enough to keep it within 4 TD. That Weber Team they beat by 31 points gave up 70 to their two fbs opponents last year and 27 or more in every game but one they played last year ( 2 wins ) ..so while I am not weighting a meaningless easy win all that heavy .. it doesn't impress me any to make me change my view of ASU as one of the more over rated teams heading into the year. They gave up 4.75 yards per carry against Weber so I have to think UNM can run on them a little bit. Also felt the unm D found some legs second half. Davies smart enough to manage the game with this opponent.
 
On South Alabama already. If they didn't already last season, they will surprise some people this season. Love them for them to pick up a big road win this weekend.

I'm looking at Army and South Carolina . Both of those jumped out at me as well. I'm sure both will make their way unto my card this week.

Best of luck this week VK!!!
 
Thanks Jimmy. Not a big fan of taking road team in those pickem type games when the home team just lost one like that the week before but they seem to match up well and the programs are heading opposite directions right now imo.

Check out this Box from tonight .. unbelievable ..

[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
SMU[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
BAY[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]4-18[/TD]
[TD]10-20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]0-4[/TD]
[TD]2-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]574[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[TD]313[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att
[/TD]
[TD]21-40[/TD]
[TD]27-47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]2.3[/TD]
[TD]6.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]-24[/TD]
[TD]261[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]-1.0[/TD]
[TD]5.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]3-25[/TD]
[TD]12-106[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]30:02[/TD]
[TD]29:58[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
check out the ohio/kent box - domination by ohio. kent has no one that can make a play. we saw it last year when dri was hurt and the story hasnt changed. They have to do a lot right to string together a TD drive.
 
twinkie13 said:
I will talk you off of Pitt:

Road juice in conference on Thursday night. Pitt off a thrashing 62-0 and BC off an unimpressive win against Mass. Oh and the ACC.

Fuck. That. Game.


Bet it for peanuts.
Click to expand...


Ya ... the weekday small road conference favorite is not the best spot .. and already doing it with Arizona ( who I will keep betting until they
get it right
 
For most of the month of August UTSA was getting DD from Houston ( Yes flip field and I like UTSA home field ). Certainly wouldn't lay over a TD with UTSA on a neutral to UNLV.

On a similar thought ... Vandy was about a two td favorite ( cant remember the actual close ) most of the month of August to Temple. Temple kicks their ass .... Ole Miss pulls away late ... now Ole Miss -20 at Vandy ... Basically saying Ole Miss is 5 TD better than Temple or we have an absolutely humongous adjustment off of one game. For further confusion they also gave Temple a huge boost in PR. Seems there is some confusion on what to make of that Owls/Dores affair from the books. More perspective?? TOSU was minus a couple TD against Navy in Ohio. Now Navy -3.5 or so at Temple and VT getting 12 at TOSU ... I am no math genius but that is not going to line up ... especially considering Navy played even with TOSU for a majority of the game.
 
Or to say the same thing in a less confusing manner ... is there anyone who made their own pr ( well ) who had Vanderbilt rated higher than Navy? Unlikely
 
UTSA was plus 5 in turnovers and from the sounds of others who watched the game ( I did not ), it was largely a product of Houston being inept. Doubt the Houston defense is much better than Arizona and as I mentioned in another thread, you need a team that can pass the ball and defend the pass to beat this Arizona team. Tucker Carter didn't prove it to me in the opener and I will make him prove it here. The Wildcats are considerably better than they were last year and their new QB improved as the game went ( though I won't be surprised when he gets picked on an overthrow or just misses a wide open guy ) against the Rebels week 1. Arizona was a 24.5 pt favorite at home to UTSA last year ... now .... that was early in the year before we found out that UTSA was a lot better than our preseason conclusions but you are looking at three score change in the line off of one offseason and a switching of the homefield. Backdoor could be open with the Zona secondary but I have a hard time envisioning the game where the Runners have the ball with a chance to win on their final drive. I also couldn't figure out a way BYU couldn't get 17 in the 2h against UConn the other night either, though. Too much talent and speed on Arizona and their scheme on both sides of the ball is clicking. This is just an auto play given my pr but I actually like how most things line up .... Except their HFA will be large .... place will be nuts. They were competitive in Arizona last year despite the score, imo.
 
clowncar said:
For most of the month of August UTSA was getting DD from Houston ( Yes flip field and I like UTSA home field ). Certainly wouldn't lay over a TD with UTSA on a neutral to UNLV.

On a similar thought ... Vandy was about a two td favorite ( cant remember the actual close ) most of the month of August to Temple. Temple kicks their ass .... Ole Miss pulls away late ... now Ole Miss -20 at Vandy ... Basically saying Ole Miss is 5 TD better than Temple or we have an absolutely humongous adjustment off of one game. For further confusion they also gave Temple a huge boost in PR. Seems there is some confusion on what to make of that Owls/Dores affair from the books. More perspective?? TOSU was minus a couple TD against Navy in Ohio. Now Navy -3.5 or so at Temple and VT getting 12 at TOSU ... I am no math genius but that is not going to line up ... especially considering Navy played even with TOSU for a majority of the game.
Click to expand...

I was on tOSU big this weekend, so I watched the entire game. I even said before the game that I thought Navy's high water mark in this game would be 17 points, so for me this bet came down to whether I thought tOSU could muster 34 points. Believing that was a very good bet, I pulled the trigger.

Ohio State was absolutely dominant in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Navy's d-line looked liked high school kids when they lined up across from Ohio State's o-line. Ohio State couldn't get out of their own way offensively until they finally decided to just run power. Once they did that, Navy was powerless to stop them. Based on how dominant Ohio State was in the trenches, the final score should have been much worse.

QB TJ Barrett was very shaky throughout the game. If Bud Foster's crew can stuff the running game like they did against Alabama last season, thus forcing Barrett to throw, I have to like the Hokies catching 12 this weekend. A small play on the ML may be worth a gander as well.
 
Foster is likely to load the box ... I mean, VT has some of the best DB's in CFB this year so you can afford to leave them on islands more.
 
clowncar said:
Lind -- ya he left the miner game late with a Hammy. Mitchem played a few possessions .. didn't look all that great but what can you expect there? I think they will be fine.

Hunt -- Largely a nonbeliever in ASU more than a believer in UNM. For me there is a pretty large disparity in pr # and market # ( accounting for QB issue ). I think UNM can grind some clock and first downs enough to keep it within 4 TD. That Weber Team they beat by 31 points gave up 70 to their two fbs opponents last year and 27 or more in every game but one they played last year ( 2 wins ) ..so while I am not weighting a meaningless easy win all that heavy .. it doesn't impress me any to make me change my view of ASU as one of the more over rated teams heading into the year. They gave up 4.75 yards per carry against Weber so I have to think UNM can run on them a little bit. Also felt the unm D found some legs second half. Davies smart enough to manage the game with this opponent.
Click to expand...


Thanks VK, I know nothing about NM so I appreciate it...I was leaning ASU tt over but if NM chews clock, not going to. Thanks again.
 
clowncar said:
UTSA was plus 5 in turnovers and from the sounds of others who watched the game ( I did not ), it was largely a product of Houston being inept. Doubt the Houston defense is much better than Arizona and as I mentioned in another thread, you need a team that can pass the ball and defend the pass to beat this Arizona team. Tucker Carter didn't prove it to me in the opener and I will make him prove it here. The Wildcats are considerably better than they were last year and their new QB improved as the game went ( though I won't be surprised when he gets picked on an overthrow or just misses a wide open guy ) against the Rebels week 1. Arizona was a 24.5 pt favorite at home to UTSA last year ... now .... that was early in the year before we found out that UTSA was a lot better than our preseason conclusions but you are looking at three score change in the line off of one offseason and a switching of the homefield. Backdoor could be open with the Zona secondary but I have a hard time envisioning the game where the Runners have the ball with a chance to win on their final drive. I also couldn't figure out a way BYU couldn't get 17 in the 2h against UConn the other night either, though. Too much talent and speed on Arizona and their scheme on both sides of the ball is clicking. This is just an auto play given my pr but I actually like how most things line up .... Except their HFA will be large .... place will be nuts. They were competitive in Arizona last year despite the score, imo.
Click to expand...


I watched most of it. UTSA is a pro style team. Nothing fancy, rely on a stingy man defense..tight press coverage..good tackling, good special teams. Houston QB was confused majority of game, forced a lot of throws that weren't there. UTSA is jsut a strong, physical team, but their qb is not very good..nor is the offense overall. I would think AZ wears them out by the 4th..The frosh qb impressed me for AZ once he shook off cobwebs. UTSA relies on run a lot, I thought AZ was decent against run, weak against pass.

I personally am not a fan of laying pts on the road but hope you win. I like this AZ team.
 
Careful with the Gamecocks. Laying 13.5 with a team who were thoroughly dominated is a little risky this soon.
 
Before the season, I was all set to bet ECU in this obvious trap situation for SCAR, but now I'm likely leaving it alone. Like your thinking on Vandy, not sure I can pull the trigger though. They looked bad, and Mason seemed in over his head. But it would be the most Ole Miss thing ever to lose this game
 
Before the season you also expected to get 20, gps, off a scary win vs tamu.

ADD

#366 Auburn -30
#306 Washington State -2.5
 
wiseplayer said:
Careful with the Gamecocks. Laying 13.5 with a team who were thoroughly dominated is a little risky this soon.
Click to expand...


It is just so far off from my pr that I am forced into it.

Question for you .... What do you make TAMU on a neutral vs. ECU ( before and after week one )?

I think you will see my point, though I agree with your basic point to an extent. I just have to trust the numbers. Week 2 and a preseason title contender would be laying a td at ecu ... I just have to.
 
cubsker said:
check out the ohio/kent box - domination by ohio. kent has no one that can make a play. we saw it last year when dri was hurt and the story hasnt changed. They have to do a lot right to string together a TD drive.
Click to expand...

[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
OHIO[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
KENT[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]7-14[/TD]
[TD]6-14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]2-2[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]437[/TD]
[TD]295[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]262[/TD]
[TD]264[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att
[/TD]
[TD]18-24[/TD]
[TD]30-41[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]10.9[/TD]
[TD]6.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]175[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]4.0[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]1-5[/TD]
[TD]8-44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]29:40[/TD]
[TD]30:20[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Plus 4 turnovers in a home loss to Ohio as well.
 
clowncar said:
Davis likely out for S Carolina. Don't care. This is such a dramatic adjustment off of one game that I just cannot help myself. laid dd to TAMU, how am I going to pass on this # with ECU? This isn't a little bit off by pr heading into week 1, it is WAY off. Willing to give them another shot.
Click to expand...

Had Scary beaten TAMU in week 1, what's the ECU line???
 
Gl Kyle....love that south car play. Line is insane.

Agree with your assessment about Ohio St getting outplayed for most of that game. Tough to gauge a defense against the option, but they didn't seem disciplined at all when faced with the simplest misdirection. O-line looked awful. Barrett (while most will remember that awful awful awful throw at the goalline) was actually much better than I expected. Freshman and thrown in with little preparation. Think he's going to be a real good qb soon. Not yet. Really like VT as well.
 
It took Ohio St a few drives to figure out the TO. Very common. Thought they did fine and will look much better against more traditional attacks, in fact they are probably relieved to see VT. Barrett's passing numbers were solid and even the pick wasn't a bad throw, just a bad choice. The academies seldom have dynamic secondaries and this game was no exception. His arm accuracy and decision making will be paramount this week, but if he gets it right they are certainly still in the playoff conversation and won't be in another losable game until November. Barrett's season starts right now.
 
New system, new qb, revenge, Miami will be able to run this time ... and only had 14 yards rushing last year. While the pace for ville will be faster you have to expect some issues. Think it is the kind of game where moving the ball in medium chunks is possible for both teams on the ground but they may find scoring TD's with the QB's difficult at the end of those drives. I have wanted to play this but decided I needed over 4 and that happened so I have no choice
 
Damn do not like being against ya, especially with a biggie. Agree that they should be able to run tho, and would lean the under. Should be a helluva game
 
Lean ville -2.5 2h but I can't play it and be middled. So stuck hanging on to my Miami bet .. a shame cause at 10-7 a great middle chance .. Ville is the better team tonight... hopefully Miami can hang in there.
 
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