time to post my week 2 card so far

Gotta Eat said:
VK.. Your opinion on Boise CSU please sir
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I think Boise State destroys them in every facet of the game. CSU pretty much proved they can't throw the ball in the game against Colorado. Boise State held Ole Miss to 71 yards at 2.1 per carry so I just think it will be a struggle for CSU to consistently move the ball on Boise State. Meanwhile, Colorado State was 116th in the nation against the pass kast year and gave up 241 against Colorado last week. Just don't think you are going to roll into Boise and beat them or compete with them by running the ball at them. Boise got roughly 400 yards of offense against a defense most consider elite ... certainly along the defensive front ... no reason they don't do damage to the csu secondary with more time to throw and better down and distance from the run as well. HFA is rather large ... class relief week over week and they played early so you don't have to worry about them being beaten up. Taking them out back to the woodshed and pulling a can of whoopass out of the toolbox.
 
good work week 1 despite the bad info I gave you on okie light.

what's your take on ohio at kentucky?
derrius vick has better accuracy from the pocket and on the move than I thought, but I doubt the wrs give uk's secondary much trouble. nor do I think the ohio oline has much chance to slow down the uk dline.
other side of the ball, I really like towles. system is perfect for him and it seems like the perfect offense to neutralize ohio's dline, which is really good. ohio plays a soft shell on the backend and I don't see how towles wont have a big day because those backs are gonna be open all day.
ohio has the advantage at k, but uk has a huge advantage on coverage and return teams.
seems like a big mismatch and that makes me a little nervous hahahaa. if you have anything I'd love to hear it. gl this week
 
clowncar said:
One more game I am stalking which is Toledo at the right number
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Well this got ruined ... but let's hit the totals ..


#327/328 WKU/Illinois under 64
#339/340 USC/Stanford under 55
#341/342 Akron/penn State over 51
#349/350 ODU/NCSU over 64
#355/366 MTSU/Minnesota under 51.5
#323/324 Navy/Temple over 55
 
Assume if you're on the over you prefer the Penn State side to the Akron side? Think the current number is a bit cheap trying to account for travel/sandwich spot with Rutgers on deck...Nittany Lions much better than the final indicated last week and the offense looks more than capable of covering DD against a respectable squad.
 
I'm on the under 47 in the VT/OSU game. Urban doesn't want to fuck with those corners. VT's D line will wear down and the Bucks should be able to push them around in the second half. Unless Urban gets cute, a slow pace should be in the cards.
 
lindetrain said:
Assume if you're on the over you prefer the Penn State side to the Akron side? Think the current number is a bit cheap trying to account for travel/sandwich spot with Rutgers on deck...Nittany Lions much better than the final indicated last week and the offense looks more than capable of covering DD against a respectable squad.
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I like the over based on both teams ability to throw the football in my estimation. Pretty sure PSU can move it on them and actually finish drives and I like the big play opportunities ( positive and negative for offense ) when Akron tries to come back throwing it around. I think UCF showed that PSU could be beat some through the air with a QB capable of throwing a forward pass. And given I think we see passing the posted total seems rather low. I actually kind of like this Akron team as one to back this year. PSU could just blow their doors off. Really the only scenario I won't like is if PSU comes out lethargic for reasons you have already mentioned and Akron manages the game rather than plays aggressive. Rather like this over.
 
scdoggy said:
I'm on the under 47 in the VT/OSU game. Urban doesn't want to fuck with those corners. VT's D line will wear down and the Bucks should be able to push them around in the second half. Unless Urban gets cute, a slow pace should be in the cards.
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I am a bit up on VT this year ... their QB of the last few had been a humongous disappointment but when I saw him playing well in an nfl exhibition game I started to wonder if it has more to do with scheme and personnel that was around him. I think the total is about right ... 28-20 type game ... but make no mistake ... VT been prepping the whole summer for this .. they are going to be excited.

Recent history makes it hard to go under .. a tosu game hasn't gone under this number since 2012.

My problem with VT is trusting their offense and the coaching mismatch of Urban v Beamer is huge ( though Bud is good ).

I mean part of me thinks TOSU wins by 20 and VT can't get first downs .. and part of me thinks VT can win the game outright. Obviously that makes me glance at the dog ..... Thought the Tosu QB wasn't half bad and he will only get better each week. Though he faces a tougher challenge this week.

So while I don't disagree it should be a low scoring game .... no way I can come on board with it
 
scdoggy said:
I'm on the under 47 in the VT/OSU game. Urban doesn't want to fuck with those corners. VT's D line will wear down and the Bucks should be able to push them around in the second half. Unless Urban gets cute, a slow pace should be in the cards.
Click to expand...

I totally agree with this. This game should be very low-scoring IMO.
 
Thanks VK. For the record the total is 48.5. Covering the 47 and 48 here is big IMO..

I thought tOSU didn't do much on offense until Navy was just worn out at the end. Unless they get a whole lot better, they won't drop 28 on Bud's crew this week. And I don't see VT doing much on offense either.

Good luck this weekend and the rest of the year.
 
GL this week, Kyle of the Desert ... wish MTSU still had that QB who gambled and that you knew he was on the under as well, then we'd all win because he'd fumble or make a bad toss or oops!, overthrow a wide open TE ... oh well, sweep the card this week, amigo!!
 
Dasher? haha

Last year they were throwing cheap shots in the bowl .. was an embarrassment. Thought both these two teams played good defense week 1. Both should get first downs throughout the game so this isn't the type of under where I expect complete shutdown ... more of the type where I don't see big plays and the two teams sort of grind it around the field ... hopefully ending in FG Attempts
 
brsport13 said:
Clowncar any good read on Duke/Troy?
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I played Troy based on my PR but have since developed some concerns. Their defense got absolutely annihilated by UAB and their offense sputtered. here is the box ... note the rushing yards for uab

[TABLE="class: mod-data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
TROY[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
UAB[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]272[/TD]
[TD]490[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]201[/TD]
[TD]152[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[TD]338[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]5-55[/TD]
[TD]3-35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]3rd Down Conversions[/TD]
[TD]5-16[/TD]
[TD]9-14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]4th Down Conversions[/TD]
[TD]1-3[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]29:27[/TD]
[TD]29:58[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
The Trojans had six or seven guys making their first cfb start. In the Troy practices spring onward the Freshman QB just looked great but in the game the offense didn't do much and the Troy defense got slaughtered so one has to wonder if his success in practices/scrimmages was the result of the troy defense and not him being ready. Troy has been a good cover team for me when I have had them against BCS schools and while Duke is a decent team, I am not sure their program is ready for laying this many on the road. Boone seemed to be ok and the offense seemed ok without the coord. but it was Elon after all.

After what uab did to the Troy defense I wont be surprised by anything ... hopefully a little game experience and the friendly confines of their empty stadium will keep them within the number.
 
ADD

#322 Toledo +4.5
#321/322 Missouri/Toledo over 59.5
#367 Georgia Tech -10
#369 Maryland -12.5
 
Couldn't risk losing the hook on Toledo ... so mad because I thought this was one that would really get screwed up. Don't understand the downward movement on the total but it gave me a good number
 
I don't get the drop on the Toledo total either. I was liking that more then the side
 
clowncar said:
Davis likely out for S Carolina. Don't care. This is such a dramatic adjustment off of one game that I just cannot help myself. laid dd to TAMU, how am I going to pass on this # with ECU? This isn't a little bit off by pr heading into week 1, it is WAY off. Willing to give them another shot.
Click to expand...

always a great time to back someone after they get embarrassed on national tv, so long as they haven't quit and i doubt they have

...how about stronghorn's strategy to try and make walk-ons start at every position on our depth chart?
 
clowncar said:
The Trojans had six or seven guys making their first cfb start. In the Troy practices spring onward the Freshman QB just looked great but in the game the offense didn't do much and the Troy defense got slaughtered so one has to wonder if his success in practices/scrimmages was the result of the troy defense and not him being ready. Troy has been a good cover team for me when I have had them against BCS schools and while Duke is a decent team, I am not sure their program is ready for laying this many on the road. Boone seemed to be ok and the offense seemed ok without the coord. but it was Elon after all.

After what uab did to the Troy defense I wont be surprised by anything ... hopefully a little game experience and the friendly confines of their empty stadium will keep them within the number.
Click to expand...

i'm starting to wonder if Blakeney's time at Troy is about up. He hasn't had a winning season since 2010 and their 2014 recruiting class was 125th ( and dead last in conference) Their 2013 recruiting class was 98th (4th in conf). I also think it is important to note that UAB stole head coach Bill Clark from JSU ( who if not for injuries in the first half against E Washington would have more than likely (imo) been in the FCS championship game last year) In short, i think Troy is going in the wrong direction and i am very interested too see how the Blazers perform against the Bulldogs this weekend ( 28 seems like a lot and i also wonder about the unsubstantiated rumors about Prescott's foot and amount of playing time he'll see) Good luck this weekend and i got a kick out of the friendly confines statement.
 
My favorite total ... which was akron/psu has the possibility of weather tomorrow including wind. That is the other thing that could derail that.

Not much to say about the Arizona game the other night. I would bet that every time and it quite frankly was kind of like I thought other than RichRod stopping his gameplan early
 
Ironically was just texting someone about that possibility a few minutes ago. It is on my radar.
 
clown I hope I didn't talk you off a winner....some way to go yet, but...

Thoughts on that Wyo/AF game?

If they are in the thread just advise por favor.

Realmente creo que eres el mejor
 
twinkie13 said:
clown I hope I didn't talk you off a winner....some way to go yet, but...

Thoughts on that Wyo/AF game?

If they are in the thread just advise por favor.

Realmente creo que eres el mejor
Click to expand...



won two second half bets so I can't complain. As for Wyo-AFA .... I made a post stating I basically have no clue. I do think afa ^ year over year and Wyoming v year over year .... but WYO was a bit better than AFA last year
 
guess I never posted the wash st thoughts but I basically view this as Wash st abusing them in the passing game and coming very inspired to play as a loss all but kills their bowl eligibility chances.
 
I will be adding Utep. I am waiting to see if I can get an extra hook at a place I can get down.
 
clowncar said:
ADD

2h BC +1
2h Pitt/BC under 24
Click to expand...


wow, did you bet these? I didn't know you were capable of winning plays like that. Took a very specific confluence of events to go 2-0 there. That means you don't get to complain about bad beats the rest of the week.
 
TheGarfather said:
wow, did you bet these? I didn't know you were capable of winning plays like that. Took a very specific confluence of events to go 2-0 there. That means you don't get to complain about bad beats the rest of the week.
Click to expand...

Be ready ... cause there were a few today
 
Week 1 17-16 -0.8
Week 2 17-12-1 3.7, 2.9

Good week of capping overall with a few misses in there. I will focus on the losses here.

Arizona -6.5 -- Won the box score handily, looked the better of it most of the game but game management dynamics came into play and that is part of playing favorites that allow for backdoor covers or late scores from opponents while you nurse your lead. Thought they went extremely conservative, extremely early and that led to the UTSA cover. The fourth down throw it up for grabs conversion was the difference in the game as far as the spread was concerned. 454 yards vs 349 usually results in a cover for the -6.5. Thought UTSA was solid along their DL .. some big guys that will be tough to move in their conference and while Tucker Carter is a downgrade for sure from what they had at the position, he might develop into an ok college qb. I would bet it again for sure so hard to grade low on this ..

wku +7 and the under-- Well I just finished saying that an over 100 yard edge usually results in a cover for the -6.5 and wku was outgained 520-400 but the difference was it was the front door cover variety of yards in the fourth quarter. WKU actually had a 27-21 lead heading into the fourth quarter before the wheels fell off. There were three defensive scores in the game to defeat the under but on the other hand there were 920 yards of offense in the game and some failed opportunities to score as well. I thought Illinois was the better team on the field but felt WKU deserved the money ... WKU should be a good over team .. play with pace and the offense is very good schematically and their defense is suspect at best. Illinois could upset someone in conference play with the top of the big ten down this year. I would pass on the total ( despite the three defensive scores ) but would probably take my chances on WKU +7 given they were probably the favorite to win straight up heading into the 4th quarter yesterday. Entertaining game.

Eastern Michigan +38 ... Well I wanted Florida to prove it. I thought EMU was a decent team to manage the football against Florida and felt that would force the Florida offense to do the heavy lifting. Unfortunately, EMU did not manage the game well, minus 5 in turnovers including a defensive score and Florida did prove it with a 655-125 yardage edge. My other angle involved EMU having already gotten a full game of action compared to gators who had the game cancelled last week. The gator defense is flat out nasty. Can't miss much bigger than this and I continue my streak of never being right in Florida openers.

UNM +27 .... you guessed it ... turnovers again ... minus 3 and they were all painful. UNM was able to move the ball well on ASU all game long but they never came close to being able to defend ASU who had open receivers all game long and open running lanes all game long and who just physically out-manned the Lobos. Was just an 11 point game at the half despite UNM handing ASU the ball on a few occasions in the first half so felt great at halftime since game dynamics rate to take hold before ASU gets to the number. The problem was that ASU jumped out fast to start the 2h and graham isn't much one for slowing down no matter the score. Yardage edge says it was a bad bet. shrug. grade it a D

South Carolina -13.5 --- Well if there was a failing here for me it was the most basic of the basic. I know I say this every year so apologies to those sick of hearing it but it applies here. What does team A like to do? Can team B stop it? ECU likes to spread you and toss it around. South Carolina has sort of proven they can't stop that kind of offense. I played this for two main reasons.... 1. I liked the matchup of the USC oline against ECU and thought they would score in bunches ( settled for a lot a FG's instead of TD's ) and 2. I liked that ECU would receive the full attention of South Carolina. But ECU pass attack worked early and by the time USC got their footing, the big number was going to be a tough cover, especially with Pirates having a backdoor offense. ECU actually outgained USC. I might be being generous giving myself a D there instead of an F, especially since I won a turnover battle at plus 1... unheard of.

Washington State -2.5 .... box score says wsu but the coaching was very suspect this game ... I would be wary of Washington state going forward as they lost the first two weeks in what were two of their more winnable games. This team could hang their heads and their schedule is very unforgiving this year. Quitting is optional ....

Akron/PSU under -- I was probably as shocked by this game as any. PSU looked really slow in this game ( Akron the faster team and noticeably so ) and the Akron defensive front did a great job against the Lions oline. For the purposes of the bet, it was a dead under from opening kick off onward. Akron dropped a lot of passes and unfortunately I don't know if that is an ongoing issue or if they just had a collective bad game... they got open and the qb delivered it but they couldn't catch. PSU looked fatigued so the travel may very well have caught up to them and the coaching did not go uptempo the way they did against UCF. They were far more methodical. I wouldn't bet this again and the weather was perfect. Really sort of shocked at how this played out. Akron not getting the money was a travesty and glad I laid off that at least.


more to come ....





 
MTSU/Minny under -- Run of the mill coin flipper .... and those can't tolerate a defensive score. Without it, the under cashes ... if there was a common theme to my losers this week it was defensive scores and turnovers in general. I would probably bet this again ... but there was almost 800 yards of offense so an argument could be made that it wasn't that great of a bet at the number I played it at. nice backdoor cover by mtsu at least for the other investment.

Toledo +4.5 -- I was gifted an opportunity by market to avoid this mistake. I thought I would be getting more with Toledo and had the game circled for a while. I think I told guys I speak to on the regular about cfb before the season started that Toledo would win this one straight up. The game was basically never in contest. Toledo qb Ely hurt in the 2h so make sure you get his status before investing next week although I am not 100% sure how many pts he is worth.

Maryland -12.5 -- wow at this one ... terps were minus 5 in turnovers committing 6 and you guessed it .... they gave up a defensive score. They also took knees deep in usf territory to end the game. With that said ... 317 yards of offense is not what I am looking for when laying a number of this size. I gave myself a B+ because I figured the yardage issue was largely a product of the turnovers. USF run defense did look pretty good and they were actually trying hard which is an upgrade from the last couple of years.

cmich/purdue under --- I will probably go on a rant here ... will try to refrain .... this was a good bet. Let's get the obvious out of the way .... yes there was a defensive score. Amazing how many defensive scores I allowed in my unders this week to lose by a score ... in this case 1 point. But I am not going to rant about the defensive td .. I am going to rant about a play call and execution that was so bad it simply boggles the mind. With just over 8 minutes to go Cmich was leading 31-10 and had a third and 7 at the purdue 35. The clear decision is to run the football, take thirty secs off the clock if you are short of the first down ( purdue D tired late which is how they gave up the late score while cmich was running out the clock ) and possibly go for it on fourth down as you are in that tweener area that makes it hard to kick a fg and hard to punt. Cmich decided to pass and Purdue fooled the qb and intercepted it and returned it to the Cmich 23. They threw a td pass on the next play. Then purdue was stopped on downs a little later deep in their end and cmich ran it in. roughly 650 yards of offense combined in the game ... frustrating bet to lose.
 
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