time to post my week 13 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Week nine 35-31 +0.9 units
Week ten 41-21 +17.9 units'
Week 11 22 -15 +5.5 units
Week 12 17-17 -1.7 units
Overall 381-317 +32.3 units

Sort of a frustrating week for me. Duke was a small bet but between getting not the prime number, missing a key fg, having the Duke drives all end in FGA and Clemson turning every opportunity they got into TD's to lose by a half point was not good. Georgia getting 701 yards of offense and not covering by a couple points was frustrating. Bearcats were no the right side but getting over a socre, holding UCF to 402 and being outgained by just 23 yards to lose by 25 is ridiculous. Stockstill threw an interception for a TD on his first play against Kentucky. After that he went 30 of 32 for 293 and 3 TD while UK could muster just 15 first downs. Certainly not a bad beat with MTSU being the better team on the field and UK winning by dd but wow. Baylor losing to TCU I barely even want to discuss. Minus 3 in turnovers there .. held TCU to 14 first downs. Needed one more TD from ULM .. threw a pick six, another interception and an interception on first and ten on the Ark state 26 going in for the backdoor cover. Very unfortunate. I think Purdue was the most frustrating game of the day giving up two late Wisconsin TD drives to blow a 14 pt lead and then blew the cover again with a 7 pt lead in overtime. Inexplicably bad defense. UTEP handing WKY pts all day with five turnovers (ok not too shocking), Oregon choking the cover late. Just a really frustrating day. I had a few fortunate ones .. where the coin flip fell my way with Nebraska and USM.... and had the bologna Hawaii and TAMU covers. But just really a very frustrating day in that it could have been a really good day. Good news is that I was low confidence last week, ran really badly with breaks and still managed .500. So i think I am still seeing it good. And, I have gotten so lucky this year that it is hard to complain about a week where everything goes wrong, particularly when it didn't hurt too bad. Another good week on the bolded stuff for you guys but my midrange bets that aren't quite as much and which I don't really reflect in the thread didn't do so good. Also had some complete no shows with Buffalo, Texas Tech, Utep to name a few. Frustrating.

On to this week. Gonna Ratchet it back some so there will be no heavily invested games this week but I do like quite a bit and have bet quite a bit. I will post momentarily. It takes a while to organize what I have done, and post the way I want it to look in the thread.

Ball State at Miami Ohio (MOH -17) 1-0
NIU at Western Michigan (NIU -5.5, over 50.5) 1-2

Colorado State at AFA (CSU 14.5) 2-2
Mississippi State at Ole Miss (Miss State -12.5) 3-2

Texas at Kansas (Texas -15.5) 3-3
Cuse at BC (Pass)
Nebraska at Iowa (Under 53.5) 3-4
Akron at Ohio (Over 55) 4-4
Buffalo at Bowling Green (Buffalo -14, Over 59 big) 5-5
Central Michigan at Bowling Green (Central Michigan 18.5) 5-6
EMU at Kent State (Pass)
Houston at Memphis (Pass)
Arkansas at Missouri (Missouri -21, Arkansas 23.5 - Potential Weather buy out) 6-7
Coastal Carolina at S Alabama (Coastal -1.5) 6-8
ECU at Bearcats (Pass)
Virginia at Virginia Tech (Virginia Tech 5) 7-8
Oregon at Oregon State (over 68.5, under 70) 8-8
UCF at USF (Pending)
Oklahoma at WVU (Oklahoma 1) 9-8
Washington at Washington State (Pass)

Purdue at Indiana (Pass)
Western Kentucky at Latech (Latech -11, over 48) 9-10
Texas tech at Baylor (Pass)
Navy at Tulane (Leg one of two team six point teaser - to be graded after second leg only - Tulane -1, Utah State 8.5)
Florida at FSU (Florida -4) 10-10
Georgia Tech at Georgia (GT 17.5) 10-11
Marshall at FIU ( Marshall 1.5) 11-11
Michigan at Ohio State (Michigan -4, under 58) 11-13
NCState at UNC (NcState -6) 11-13
Wake Forest at Duke (Pass)
ODU at Rice (Pass)
Ga Southern at Ga State (Pass)
NMSU at Liberty (Pass)
Wyoming at New Mexico (Wyoming -7 -120) 12-13
ULL at ULM (Pass)
USM at UTEP (USM -13) 13-13
UAB at MTSU (Under 52.5) 14-13
Stanford at UCLA (over 57) 15-13
Troy at App State (Pass)
Minnesota at Wisconsin (Pass)
Illinois at Northwestern (Pass)
Arizona State at Arizona (Pass)
Terps at Penn State (Terps 13.5) 15-14
SMU at Tulsa (Smu -2) smu 2h -1 huge, over 27 16-16
Pitt at Miami FL (Miami -5) 17-16
Temple at Uconn (Pass)
Auburn at Alabama (Bama -24.5) 18-16
Arkansas State at Texas State (Pass)
Rutgers at Michigan State (Rutgers 27, over 37) 19-17
Charlotte at Fau (Pass)
South Carolina at Clemson (South Carolina 25) 20-17
North Texas at UTSA (UNT -21) 20-18
KSU at Iowa State (Kansas State 13) 21-18
Colorado at California (Colorado 13) 22-18
SJSU at Fresno State (Pass)
Kentucky at Ville (Pass)
LSU at Tamu (Tamu -2) 22-18
Notre Dame at USC (notre dame -10) 22-19
Oklahoma State at TCU (Pass)
Nevada at UNLV (Pass)
BYU at Utah (BYU 13.5, over 44) 24-19
Utah State at Boise State (Leg two of two team six point teaser - to be graded after second leg only - Tulane -1, Utah State 8.5) 24-20
Hawaii at SDSU (Pass)

Week One: 22-29 -9.90 units
Week two: 28-26 -0.6 units
Week three: 31-31 -3.1 units
Week four: 27-24 +0.6 units
Week five 38-33 +1.7 units
Week six 39-33 +2.7 units
Week seven 39-32 +3.8 units
Week eight 42-25 +14.5 units
Week nine 35-31 +0.9 units
Week ten 41-21 +17.9 units'
Week 11 22 -15 +5.5 units
Week 12 17-17 -1.7 units
Week 13 24-20 +2.4 units
Overall 405-337 +34.7 units
 
Last edited:
Adds
(CSU 14.5)
(Buffalo -14)
(Central Michigan 18.5)
(Missouri -21)
(Coastal -1.5)
(Oklahoma 1)
(Latech -11)
(Florida -4)
(GT 17.5)
(Marshall 1.5)
(Michigan -4)
(NcState -6)
(Wyoming -7 -120)
(USM -13)
UAB at MTSU (Pending)
(Terps 13.5)
(Smu -2)
(Miami -5)
(Bama -24.5)
(South Carolina 25)
(UNT -21)
(Colorado 13)
(Tamu -2)
(notre dame -10)
(BYU 13.5)
 
Share your frustration re week twelve. Bad uumbers on both FSU and USM so wound up with pushes instead of wins. JumpedfromTexas to IowaState. Should not have doubted you. In the FCS realm, listened to a friend and fellow FCS fan and made 3 bets on a conference MEAC that I don’t follow and never play. Lost all 3.
On to 13 and still ahead of the game thanks to you.
 
M.W. said:
To be fair, Clemson dropped a lot of passes that took points off the board.
Click to expand...

I didn't watch the game. I was going through play by play and stats only .. in fact, missed most of the games due to a company function. So you can take every synopsis there with a grain of salt.
 
Adds

Miami Ohio -17
Buffalo/BGSU over 59 (Big)
Akron/Ohio over 55
Oregon/oregon St over 68.5
W Kentucky/Latech over 48
Michigan/Ohio State under 58
UAB/MTSU under 52.5
Rutgers 27
Rutgers/Mich State over 37
BYU/Utah over 44
NIU/wmich over 50.5
NIU -5.5
 
Ryno14 said:
Would love your thoughts on Oklahoma when you have some time. Thanks, VK.
Click to expand...

My play was based on power rating. I did like the fact that an Oklahoma win aligns itself perfectly for what the conference will want. Oklahoma vs Texas in the Big12 Championship game (Assuming Horns beat Kansas who they match up well against besides obviously being the better team in general).
 
mater said:
Any thoughts on Tuesday nights game?
Click to expand...

MOH - Huge class relief from recent weeks for MOH. Miami Ohio played basically even games against Buffalo, Ohio and NIU the last three weeks, winning two of three to keep their bowl eligibility possibilities alive. Those are the three best teams in the MAC. Just a huge class drop down to Ball State. Senior night for a team filled with seniors and to finish off the stretch for bowl eligibility. I have to think Miami Ohio just wipes the floor with Ball State.

NIU - Really outplayed MOH last week. They had an inordinate amount of dropped passes and had a pick six against them. I think their offense gets on track in this spot and they match up decently against W Mich run game with their defensive line. I think NIU posts a number (and by number, I mean something in the thirties). I took them and the over (over more on my feeling about what will happen than my numbers which is always dangerous).

so MOH, minus, niu minus, niu/wmu over the total for me tonight.
 
RetroVK said:
My play was based on power rating. I did like the fact that an Oklahoma win aligns itself perfectly for what the conference will want. Oklahoma vs Texas in the Big12 Championship game (Assuming Horns beat Kansas who they match up well against besides obviously being the better team in general).
Click to expand...

I agree, and obviously will be tough for some to back them this week, but I feel pretty good about them and Washington both on Friday night.
 
I see you on the over in NOU/WMU. I have an alt line NIU -10.5 (+180). Toget this over, I assume you feel NIU does the heavy lifting, no?
 
booksbestfriend said:
I see you on the over in NOU/WMU. I have an alt line NIU -10.5 (+180). Toget this over, I assume you feel NIU does the heavy lifting, no?
Click to expand...

Yes, I think they do the heavy lifting. I think they could have scored a lot more last week but the WR drops just killed their drives and untimely penalties as well. Their offense, if you have been watching them play, has been getting steadily better as the season has progressed.
 
No real opinion on TCU and if I had one it would be wrong. My bookie has a direct line to Patterson.

Also no opinion on Baylor.
 
Lucky to go 1-2 tonight. I hope others got a better number than i on the total. Childers was a special qb to watch tonight.
 
Ryno14 said:
No thoughts on Vandy/Tennessee I assume?
Click to expand...

I don't have a good read on the Vols at the moment so I am intentionally avoiding the game. I believe the winner is bowl eligible. Vols travel better. Problem is that I consider the Dores a little superior. The line is about right from a current PR perspective.

Predicting what Vols will do from week to week is something for the professionals to figure out. I have not a clue.
 
Add

Texas -15.5
Kansas State 13
Stanford/UCLA over 57
Two Team Six Point Teaser (Tulane -1, Utah State 8.5)

Also, the more I look at the Ole Miss vs Miss State game the more I think it is a woodshedding.
 
Looks like I missed some Stanford offensive line injuries. I am not sure that I would advocate that total to people anymore. I won't play back the other way, at least yet, but if you are the tailing sort, that might be one to avoid.
 
ADD

Mississippi State -12.5

I am pretty loaded on this game now as I also have a bet in single digits. For purposes of my thread, I will grade at 12.5.

Best of luck
 
Nice call on Colorado State, mr retro. missed xtra points made it a bit dicey but all’s well that ends well.
 
Add

Arkansas +23.5

My forecast is calling for some weather for that game and I just don't want to lay that big of a number in that one without Missouri really having the passing game available at max capacity. Hopefully it lands 22 or 23, with a Missouri -21 ticket already in play.
 
12:00 PM

FRI
Rain49°43°
95%
69%S 17 mph
1:00 PM

FRI
Rain49°43°
95%
76%S 17 mph
2:00 PM

FRI
Rain48°42°
80%
82%SSE 17 mph
3:00 PM

FRI
Rain48°42°
75%
84%SSE 17 mph
4:00 PM

FRI
Light Rain49°43°
60%
82%S 17 mph
5:00 PM

FRI
Showers48°42°
55%
83%S 16 mph
 
Texas - I think Texas has been a little under-valued the last few weeks. I have found myself on them the prior two weeks and will be on them again here. Kansas has a lot of distractions with the coaching maneuvers (Les Miles!) and Texas advances to the conference championship game with a win. A Texas vs Oklahoma Big12 championship game is a wet dream for the conference so I suspect Texas will get some favorable officiating. Longhorns run defense is the strength of their defense and that matches up well with what Kansas prefers to do when they Jayhawks have the ball. Where Texas has been struggling is defending the high powered pass offenses in the conference .. texas tech, oklahoma state, oklahoma and WVU come to mind. but Kansas is ranked 120th in yards per pass attempt so I just don't think they are going to be able to exploit that. Ehlinger has been upgraded to probable and obviously, Texas has one of the more experienced and better backups in CFB. there isn't a huge drop off there (though I prefer Ehlinger). I think they can wear down the Kansas defense, possibly have a substantial field position advantage and if Kansas tries throwing a bunch, I think it leads to the advantage growing throughout the game. Kansas is game defensively but this is a tough ask for any group of kids.

Nebraska/Iowa Under - This is a weather play for me. Should be rainy and windy. I have seen Stanley in the rain before .. which should be what the doctor ordered for Nebraska secondary weakness. Iowa run defense is also tough. Grinder in the cold, wet, wind.

Buffalo and Over - Seems like a great situational spot for buffalo. Buffalo off an asswhooping to Ohio, and needs to win (assuming ohio beats akron which seems probable) to secure the MAC championship game bid over MOH. Bowling Green pass defense ranks 9th in the nation in total yards allowed which on its face might make someone think they match up decently against that Buffalo passing attack. The problem with that is that the BGSU pass defense has really just not been tested. They faced the 33rd, 123rd, 83rd, 127th, 70th, 56th, 78th, 84th, 125th, and 108th ranked pass offenses. Moreover, they have trailed by a lot at certain points in the year which leads to opponents running against their sieve of a run defense. And finally, the 7.8 yards per pass attempt allowed (93rd) tells us that without a doubt, the total pass yardage allowed numbers are just skewed. Two bad performances by Buffalo in recent weeks against MOH (still won and covered) and Ohio, coupled with BGSU getting wins vs Akron and CMich the last two weeks, has given us some good line value. Buffalo is really balanced on offense and should be able to run and pass here. Buffalo has dropped two games this year ... Army and Ohio .. both relatively meaningless in that one was a non-conf and in the other they could afford the loss (still meaningful in that they could have clinched) but more importantly it was two opponents who could line up and power run them to death. Bowling green is 117th in rushing offense per game and 122nd in yards per carry. Buffalo is 14th in pass yards allowed per game and 27th in yards per attempt allowed. It's just a good matchup and a good situation for buffalo
 
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