time to post my week 13 card so far

Central Michigan - scary to back these guys I know but I do have a couple of angles here. Toledo has wrapped up the bowl bid and has nothing to play for in this game whereas CMich is still seeking their first FBS win of the year. It gives me hope they won't lay down. Toledo has failed to score 28 points or more 5 times this year and lost all of those games. The common denominator was consistent ... when they struggled rushing the ball, they struggled scoring. 112 vs miami fl, 137 vs fresno, 229 vs emu, 158 vs buffalo, and 167 vs niu. The Cmich rush defense gives up 4.28 yards per carry which is pretty solid, particularly when the opponents have had 505 rush attempts against them (they trail a lot obviously). While I suspect that Toledo exceeds 200 yards rushing in this game, we aren't talking about them winning, we are talking about them covering three scores. I think Cmich can slow them enough to stay in the game and I also think Toledo is weaker defensively than most years and maybe, just maybe, the offense can contribute a little. We have the added benefit of a meaningless Toledo game in the hotbed of point shaving.

Coastal - Team has lost by 16, 28 and 24 the last three weeks and is reeling. But that was against three of the better sunbelt conference foes that sbama lost to by 45, 24 and 35, respectively so maybe cut them some slack for those. S Bama season is over but Coastal still has a shot at bowl eligibility with a win, though it may not mean they actually get invited to a bowl so there is that. But with the addition of the Myrtle Beach Bowl next year, I think bowl eligibility could be on their minds here. Coastal Carolina runs a unique system on offense that is highly predicated on running from different formations and running in a multitude of ways from each formation. Someone called it a varied rushing attack early in the year and I think that explains it well. S bama is giving up over 5 yards per carry defensively, so no reason to think coastal cannot have success on offense. Unfortunately, the Coastal defense is abysmal so we will have to hope they eat clock, keep those guys rested on defense some and are more consistent due to their rushing attack vs the inconsistency of the SBama passing attack. Both teams with a lot of health issues at QB. Going with what I hope is the more motivated team, that finally gets a good match up and I think we have line value because their schedule had them playing three toughies in a row and they got slaughtered.
 
Virginia Tech - Not gonna lie, I bet this a little smaller and like it a little less than most plays but it "feels" right. Virginia Tech is now 1-4 at home this season and the win was William & Mary. They are playing horrible football. If I had told you after they went to FSU and won, while humiliating FSU that they would end up having a worse season than FSU, you probably would have thought I was crazy ... at least I would have. FSU has been progressing since then and VT has been regressing. The major bugaboo has been their rush defense which is a shocking 120h in yards per carry allowed. With that said ... it is skewed heavily by two games (Pitt and GT). Removal of those two games lowers them to allowing 4.0 yards per game. Obviously, if you took out every teams two worst performances, their season stats look better but this is a pretty extreme example in my eyes. Moreover, VT has played against quite a few really good running offenses. Virginia has an average running game but it looks a little worse on the road .. I have sort of lost track of them and as I recall they did have a few weather games which might skew this negatively if they apply but 188 rush yards at indiana and lost, 93 yards rushing at ncsu and lost, 178 at Duke and won, and 130 at GT and lost. So it appears there is a dichotomy between road rushing number results and win/loss results and their home rushing results and game results. I certainly don't fear the uva pass game. So then what does VT do well on offense? The answer is ... not very much but their pass game appears at least capable of doing some things. The problem is that UVA has a really good pass defense. From a match up standpoint, were this played at a different time of year, I might have backed the under but in this case, I expect an open game. In any event, it looks very competitive on paper to me and I have the home team who I think will keep it within a score if they lose ... gonna hope it isn't 6 or 7. They are a hard team to back right now but I gotta do what I gotta do.
 
I think you nailed the under on Iowa/Neb. If I still bet unders I would follow your advice on that one. That one just has all the look and feel of a typical Iowa home game in November.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I think you nailed the under on Iowa/Neb. If I still bet unders I would follow your advice on that one. That one just has all the look and feel of a typical Iowa home game in November.
Click to expand...

Hopefully .. in fair weather, I think both offenses could succeed. So dangerous if it gets sunny
 
Some quick hitters

Oklahoma - Just think they are slightly better and the conference will want them to win for the epic rematch.

Tulane tease - Eliminated from bowl eligibility in finale last year and need this for bowl eligibility this year. Teaser basically asking them to get bowl eligible. Think their rush defense a little better than Navy.

Florida - I think FSU is moving in the right direction and getting better each week. But this is too tall an order. I think FSU bounces back next year in a big way. Team could really use the extra bowl practices. Mullen knew the importance of beating Ole Miss for recruiting when at MSU.

Michigan and under - Just willing to pay to see any team score a bunch on that defense.

Wyoming - MW needs this .. unm run defense does not match up well with power run of cowboys

USM - really solid defense, needs win for bowl eligibility, utep is utep

Stanford/ucla over - Like less after a closer review of oline attrition for Stanford. beware here.

Rutgers and over - Gotten to at least 7 every time.
 
Great Season VK. I have been reading all season!

I will ride the money TRAIN on the OVER tomorrow BUFFALO/BOWLING GREEN.

69 total points scored 48-21!
 
I don't think I am seeing it quite right this week but hopefully Saturday is better.

Kind of tired so not going to go through a bunch of writeups but thought it might be fun to look at the line movement from when I posted until now for Saturday action. I haven't done that exercise in a while .. ok let's face it ... I haven't done any form of exercise in a while (will use BM)

Western Kentucky at Latech (Latech -11, over 48) 10.5 and 48.5 now. booo and yay
Florida at FSU (Florida -4) Florida now -7.5 big yay
Georgia Tech at Georgia (GT 17.5) GT now getting 16.5 big yay
Marshall at FIU ( Marshall 1.5) marshall now -3 -116
Michigan at Ohio State (Michigan -4, under 58) now mich -4.5, 54
NCState at UNC (NcState -6) -6.5
Wyoming at New Mexico (Wyoming -7 -120) wyoming now laying 7 at -105
USM at UTEP (USM -13) usm now laying 13.5
UAB at MTSU (Under 52.5) now 51.5
Stanford at UCLA (over 57) now 61
Terps at Penn State (Terps 13.5) now getting 14
SMU at Tulsa (Smu -2) now -3 wink wink
Pitt at Miami FL (Miami -5) -4.5 now
Auburn at Alabama (Bama -24.5) same now
Rutgers at Michigan State (Rutgers 27, over 37) 26 and 37
South Carolina at Clemson (South Carolina 25) now can get 26.5 .. maybe when
North Texas at UTSA (UNT -21) now -24.5
KSU at Iowa State (Kansas State 13) now 12.5
Colorado at California (Colorado 13) now 12.5
LSU at Tamu (Tamu -2) powered all the way through the -3 to -3.5
Notre Dame at USC (notre dame -10) now -11
BYU at Utah (BYU 13.5, over 44) 11.5 and 44.5 now



Makes me feel better about tomorrow and the idea that I offered any tailers value by posting and letting them get down fairly early in the week.
 
As always, the value of numbers.

The early 53's through 56's in Bowling Green cash that over. It happens.

It is tough. I personally wait out more in November now due to weather when it comes to totals. That may be why my cards have shrunk lately.

You are in a solid starting position for tomorrow. That is all that matters. You might not have the 'best' number but you have a 'better' number which is much better than most...

"Better than most..." That is my new nickname for you. In my best Gary Koch voice.

Good luck, Go Blue.
 
B.A.R. said:
As always, the value of numbers.

The early 53's through 56's in Bowling Green cash that over. It happens.

It is tough. I personally wait out more in November now due to weather when it comes to totals. That may be why my cards have shrunk lately.

You are in a solid starting position for tomorrow. That is all that matters. You might not have the 'best' number but you have a 'better' number which is much better than most...

"Better than most..." That is my new nickname for you. In my best Gary Koch voice.

Good luck, Go Blue.
Click to expand...


Yup. I can be pretty mad at myself for costing myself a few units this year on methodology but hard to be too mad at myself this year.

The numbers I got this year are hardly even shopped. I had so many more outs before that I could get the best available number almost every time and now I just have to get what I get ... sometimes able to get a really good number at a casino out here that I cannot get online so there is that small advantage when I have time to go get it (and sometimes that number that shows up for me on the computer isn't actually at the sportsbook when I drive over which is aggravating).

But what does make me happy is a couple of things:

1. The lines are still moving towards my numbers and not away from my numbers. So while I realize that I shouldn't have the record that I have (running good), I at least know that I am still playing with an edge.
2. These numbers I bet are pretty much all widely available for people who might be tailing. My record and any tailers record should be about the same assuming they act within a reasonable time frame of my posting. As you are aware, I can get pretty guilty feelings if I feel I have cost others money.
3. My bigger bets have run really good for the most part. Again, since I am betting variance between my line/total and market, it is a good sign that my numbers are still producing positive EV.

Go Blue indeed.
 
Glad you guys won on SMU 2h .. I would like to think we deserved it but not so sure. SMU is much better than Tulsa, fwiw. That game had no business going the way it did. That was either a 1 in 100 performance by Hicks or it was a 100 in 100 performance by Hicks. I say that with full knowledge that he isn't very good. It was very frustrating to say the least.

Michigan was obviously a disappointment and the game highlighted just how underachieving TOSU has been all season. Ridiculous for them to put it all together right there but tip of the cap to them.

How ridiculous was that Texas A&M game?

GT was another disappointment. That was men vs boys today.

Want to thank Rutgers for making me money down the stretch.

Bama UGA should be epic next week.

Feel bad for Milton. Gonna be tough for UCF to defend their national championship without him.

You can lay any number you want with clemson next week. They cannot make it high enough.

When you listen to your sports radio this week and they bring in a sportsbook director .. the books made a fortune this week, especially on thanksgiving.
 
Let me add my thanks for all your hard work and your graciously sharing with so many of us coattailers. Your knowledge and capacity for remembering detail is truly amazing.
 
bigtyme, bull - thanks guys. I have been posting here for a decade or so and am better off for it. Met a lot of good people here, some of whom don't post here anymore but that I still talk with and consider friends (and some that help me win $). It's a good environment for posting plays if you are interested in sharing your thoughts without the garbage or without the need for positive and negative attention (view whores). This years results won't happen again but I think I have been at least consistent enough over the decade that I have either helped some people to make money or helped them to lose less than they otherwise would. I think I can sleep well at night knowing that and this year was especially gratifying in that respect. In past years, betting openers, I never really tracked how well people might have done backing my plays at a point worse than what I was getting. This year, 95% of the posts made were available at time of posting and half of the other 5% were posted at worse numbers on the ones I bet but failed to post before a move. If a person chose to tail this year and lost, they worked hard at it. I love college football and love talking about it, reading about it, writing about it and 80% of the time, I even enjoy watching it. So posting about it and the puzzle of handicapping the games is a labor of love and it makes me happy if anyone enjoys my feeble attempts at analyzing the data. Thank you for your posts.
 
RetroVK said:
Glad you guys won on SMU 2h .. I would like to think we deserved it but not so sure. SMU is much better than Tulsa, fwiw. That game had no business going the way it did. That was either a 1 in 100 performance by Hicks or it was a 100 in 100 performance by Hicks. I say that with full knowledge that he isn't very good. It was very frustrating to say the least.
.
Click to expand...

I watched quite a bit of this game. He missed open receivers and made poor decisions imo. What I saw was a guy with a poor attitude and a prima donna appearance who hung his head/slumped his shoulders and tried to blame his receivers/teammates for his errors. He did not "lead", but seemingly had a quitters attitude. Or, am I off base? Just seemed that way to me.
 
bones said:
I watched quite a bit of this game. He missed open receivers and made poor decisions imo. What I saw was a guy with a poor attitude and a prima donna appearance who hung his head/slumped his shoulders and tried to blame his receivers/teammates for his errors. He did not "lead", but seemingly had a quitters attitude. Or, am I off base? Just seemed that way to me.
Click to expand...


After missing two uncovered guys with incatchable balls for tds (100% blown coverages and both Tds for certain), taking bad sacks, making bad decisions and missing open guys all day, he complained to his receiver on a play where the receiver was slow to turn his head and therefore was unable to see the pass coming. Once the game was out of reach he got really accurate though. Probably has a vacation planned or has no interest in additional practices.
 
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