time to post my bowl season so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
I will try to post a play for every bowl like last year. I doubt there is much chance I cap bowl season as well as last year, as I was in the zone but hopefully it goes well.




Annual Army/Navy game

Army +17 -115 winner
Army/Navy under 55 winner


New Orleans Bowl

Nevada/Louisiana Under 61 winner
Nevada 2h -2.5 loser

New Mexico Bowl

Utah State/Utep Under 49 winner

Las Vegas Bowl

Utah/Colorado State Under 58.5 winner

Idaho Bowl

Western Michigan/Air Force over 56 winner

Raycom Camellia Bowl

South Alabama Team Total over 28 Push

Miami Beach Bowl

Memphis -2 winner

Boca Raton Bowl

Northern Illinois/Marshall over 65 winner

Poinsettia Bowl

SDSU/Navy under 54.5 winner

Popeye's Bahamas Bowl (love it)

Central Michigan/Western Kentucky over 66 winner
Western Kentucky -3.5 loser

Hawai'i Bowl

Rice -1.5 winner
Rice/fresno St under 60 winner

Deep in the Heart of Dallas (Clap Clap) Bowl

Illinois/Latech Under 62

Quick Lane Bowl

North Carolina -3 Big

St Petersburg Bowl

UCF -2

Military Bowl

Cincinnati -3
Cincinnati/Virginia Tech over 50 push
Sun Bowl

Arizona state/Duke under 65.5

Independence Bowl

South Carolina +4
South Carolina/Miami Florida Over 61

Pinstripe Bowl

Penn State/Boston College under 40 (small)

Holiday Bowl

Southern Cal -7

Liberty Bowl

Texas AM +3.5

Russell Athletic Bowl

Oklahoma -3.5
2h Under 24 ou/Clemson

Texas Bowl

Texas +7 (Big)
Texas/Arkansas Under 45.5

Music City Bowl

Notre Dame/LSU Under 52.5

Belk Bowl

Louisville/Georgia Under 57

Foster Farms Bowl

Maryland +14
2h terps 7 -120
2h over 22.5

Chic-fil-a Peach Bowl

TCU -3
TCU/OleMiss over 55
TCU 2h -3
TCU/Ole Miss under 24.5 2h

Fiesta Bowl

Arizona/Boise State over 69.5

Capital One Orange Bowl

Georgia Tech +7
Georgia Tech/Mississippi State over 61.5

Outback Bowl

Wisconsin/Auburn over 63

Cotton Bowl

Michigan State +3

Citrus Bowl

Minnesota +6

Rose Bowl Semifinal

Oregon/Florida State over 71

Sugar Bowl Semifinal

Alabama/Ohio State over 59

Armed Forces Bowl

Houston +3
Houston/Pittsburgh under 54

Taxslayer Bowl ( love it )

Iowa +4

Alamo Bowl

UCLA -1.5

Cactus Bowl

Washington/Oklahoma State Under 56.5

Birmingham Bowl

East Carolina +7 -115

Godaddy Bowl

Toledo -2.5
Toledo/Arkansas State over 67

Championship Game

3 Team Ten Pt Teaser

Illinois State 16.5
Illinois State/NDSU Under 64
Ohio State 15.5

TOSU/Oregon Over 74.5
Oregon 2h -6




































 
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I could have played 16.5 -110 and that may very well be a better play so if you don't have similar outs as I do and have to go 16.5, don't worry ... you probably have the better mathematical play. I saw it and just grabbed it but on further review I have some remorse.

Basically see a game without a lot of throwing. Two option teams so they should have the ability to understand option principles, and we have two of the slower paced teams in the same game. Using most pace metrics you will find Army in the bottom five in pace and Navy in the bottom 25. You will get less drives in the game and that is the main reason I like the points. The two teams are 99th and 88th in total defense and more importantly 94th and 98th in rush defense. They are 2nd and 6th in rushing offense. So when you look at the key points of interest on both sides of the ball there just isn't the significant disparity to warrant this sized spread. Last years game Navy won 34-7 but that was a bit deceiving. army held them to 353 yards and 15 first downs on a snowy day. 3 turnovers did the knights in. The year prior, Army held navy under 300 yards ,,,, Just see no reason to think Navy dominates the game, and I don't think the navy defense can dominate enough for Army to not eat clock when they have the ball. I looked back quite a few years and the only times navy put up points was when army struggled on offense. It's worth the look because in this case there is a logical reason for the annual results ,,,, like this year, it is a superbowl for Army .... both teams eat clock ... neither team gets the advantage of playing against an opponent who can't simulate the offense in practice.

The plays:
Army plus the pts and under the posted total
 
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A few trigger pulls today including a few minutes ago on the game featuring two of my favorite teams. I haven't done minutia capping, which I plan on doing with Gar and maybe tru if he has time. The only one I am absolutely sure that I cannot be talked off of is Texas.

Utep/Utah State under 49
niu marshall over 65
Western Michigan/AFA over 56
Central Michigan/WKU over 66
North Carolina -3
ucf -2
Cincinnati -3
Texas AM 3.5
Arizona/boise st over 69.5
tosu/bama over 59
Houston 3
Houston/pitt under 54
rice -1.5
sdsu/navy under 54.5


iowa 4
Toledo/ark st over 67
Minnesota 6
tcu -3
texas 7 (my only big one so far)
Toledo -2.5
texas/ark under 45.5
penn st/bc under 40
Illinois/latech under 62
 
nice win in that game

Incidentialy, or not, one of my fave if not my fave non LSU game......On my list of things to do before I die, go to that game. Just so incredible to see the servicemen in the stands in their garb and knowing the sacrifice the kids make to go to each place of their choice. Not may kids are recruited for those places. Much is expected of them and it brings a tear to my eye each year honestly.....old option football. Just great stuff. Army needs to get one of these soon though...

And Fuck Oregon really....who has better alternates than NAVY? No one, that's who.

Look forward to the thread man and GL and Merry Christmas and Happy NY!!
 
clowncar said:
A few trigger pulls today including a few minutes ago on the game featuring two of my favorite teams. I haven't done minutia capping, which I plan on doing with Gar and maybe tru if he has time. The only one I am absolutely sure that I cannot be talked off of is Texas.

Utep/Utah State under 49
niu marshall over 65
Western Michigan/AFA over 56
Central Michigan/WKU over 66
North Carolina -3
ucf -2
Cincinnati -3
Texas AM 3.5
Arizona/boise st over 69.5
tosu/bama over 59
Houston 3
Houston/pitt under 54
rice -1.5
sdsu/navy under 54.5


iowa 4
Toledo/ark st over 67
Minnesota 6
tcu -3
texas 7 (my only big one so far)
Toledo -2.5
texas/ark under 45.5
penn st/bc under 40
Illinois/latech under 62
Click to expand...
homer:tiphat:
 
I just like the matchup. Not sure BB has it in him to throw enough to do what he would have to do to cover that number. Also, texas had a lot of suspensions, players kicked off the team etc. etc. they rate to improve more than Arkansas over the duration of the practices. Strong is a pretty good bowl coach as well. The defensive game against TCU by Texas was pretty impressive.
 
Arky and Texas looks to be a very low-scoring slugfest. I favor the UNDER, but if you're going to play a side, you have to take the points.

Best of luck to you this bowl season CC!
 
clowncar said:
A few trigger pulls today including a few minutes ago on the game featuring two of my favorite teams. I haven't done minutia capping, which I plan on doing with Gar and maybe tru if he has time. The only one I am absolutely sure that I cannot be talked off of is Texas.
Click to expand...

me too :shake:

GL, kyle.
 
Yup. I lean over there. Deciding whether to attack it or wait until a half is played. I went over the game with Gar the other night on AIM. Lined pretty tightly ... Sbama TT over is the other option I am looking at.
 
Reasons for the utep/usu under -- I am sure this one is not hard to figure out my reasoning. The game lines up perfectly for an under. UTEP is the absolute slowest paced team in college football this year. Utah State is not a fast paced team either. UTEP currently 34th in the nation running the ball and they stick with that running game throughout the game. Utah State has not been an easy team to run the ball on for a few years running now. Aggies are 26th in the nation defending the run. They really only had two bad games defending the run in the finale against boise and earlier against the option of new mexico. Otherwise they have been pretty solid all year long. Off of that bad finale, I think the aggies will have some motivation defensively in this game which I think they may need as it cannot be easy to get up for utep. The Miners obviously have the motivation here but I just don't think they match up to win when on offense. It is one of those perfect type scenarios where a good running team is against a good running defense and i expect the defense to get the better of it, especially with extra time to prepare for what the miners do. With that said, the miners will ground out some yards and some clock along the way, it will just be difficult to finish with TD's. On the flip side, utah state just isn't a very good offensive football team right now. They have been held under 300 yards three times this year and have over 500 yards a whopping zero times. They have only run 230 plays over the last four games so you can see they are not running a ton of offense. UTEP's defense is protected by their offense. Don't get me wrong, this team is miles better than other versions on this side of the ball but their positive statistics are a result of the pace of play and not talent. To illustrate my point, the miners are 46th in total defense, giving up 370 yards or so per game. BUT they are 109th overall in yards per play. As you can see, the offense has been a dear friend to them with eating clock. They are 2nd in the nation in time of possession. Overall, the aggies have played the better schedule but the miners have faced some decent offenses this year such as kstate, wky, old dom, texas tech, latech and even rice. Heck nmsu put up better numbers on offense than utah state did this year. So it isn't like the miners rate to be overmatched on that side of the ball even though i think utah state can move it on them pretty well. If the miners cannot run and utah state converts that into early pts then the game will go over the total but if the miners keep this one close, i see no reason it isnt a game that is played in under three hours and i go to the window and cash.
 
utah/csu under reasons --- Well let me begin with what is a simple fact of bowl games and coaching changes. While determining preparedness and motivation is difficult from one coaching change to the next, one thing that is usually fairly consistent in these scenarios is that the plays get in slower to the offense. All the systems are a tad different and in this case the OC has moved down to the field so play calling will be different as well. It might shock you to know that depending what metrics you prefer, the rams are actually one of the 30 slowest teams when they are on offense already. Some of that is playing with big leads in the fourth qtr this year. The problem as I see it for CSU is the UTAH defensive line. Grayson is primarily a pocket passer and that oline has not seen a defense like Utah's all year long. Rams ypp has been great but it won't take too many sacks to end drives for that club in this one and they wont be able to line it up and run it on utah. The utes are not a good offensive team. They average just 338 yards per game or so over their last ten games and csu has not yielded over 400 in their last three. Didn't get lucky with perfect football weather but I will take my chances that either the normal utah offense or normal utah defense shows up here and coaching changes at csu lead to a lesser offensive performance from the rams.
 
wmu/afa over -- hmmm option team with the over... not a fan usually. But here we have a wmich team that i doubt can match up to defend it. When you flip the ball, you get a wmich offense that ranks in the top five in yards per pass attempt against an afa defense that is 107th in yards per pass attempt defended. It lines up for Wmich to either keep pace early or be able to score if forced to throw from behind. Always a little fear with an over when an option team is involved but the pure x's and o's of this one point to only one clear option in this game and that is the over.
 
clowncar said:
Reasons for the utep/usu under -- I am sure this one is not hard to figure out my reasoning. The game lines up perfectly for an under. UTEP is the absolute slowest paced team in college football this year. Utah State is not a fast paced team either. UTEP currently 34th in the nation running the ball and they stick with that running game throughout the game. Utah State has not been an easy team to run the ball on for a few years running now. Aggies are 26th in the nation defending the run. They really only had two bad games defending the run in the finale against boise and earlier against the option of new mexico. Otherwise they have been pretty solid all year long. Off of that bad finale, I think the aggies will have some motivation defensively in this game which I think they may need as it cannot be easy to get up for utep. The Miners obviously have the motivation here but I just don't think they match up to win when on offense. It is one of those perfect type scenarios where a good running team is against a good running defense and i expect the defense to get the better of it, especially with extra time to prepare for what the miners do. With that said, the miners will ground out some yards and some clock along the way, it will just be difficult to finish with TD's. On the flip side, utah state just isn't a very good offensive football team right now. They have been held under 300 yards three times this year and have over 500 yards a whopping zero times. They have only run 230 plays over the last four games so you can see they are not running a ton of offense. UTEP's defense is protected by their offense. Don't get me wrong, this team is miles better than other versions on this side of the ball but their positive statistics are a result of the pace of play and not talent. To illustrate my point, the miners are 46th in total defense, giving up 370 yards or so per game. BUT they are 109th overall in yards per play. As you can see, the offense has been a dear friend to them with eating clock. They are 2nd in the nation in time of possession. Overall, the aggies have played the better schedule but the miners have faced some decent offenses this year such as kstate, wky, old dom, texas tech, latech and even rice. Heck nmsu put up better numbers on offense than utah state did this year. So it isn't like the miners rate to be overmatched on that side of the ball even though i think utah state can move it on them pretty well. If the miners cannot run and utah state converts that into early pts then the game will go over the total but if the miners keep this one close, i see no reason it isnt a game that is played in under three hours and i go to the window and cash.
Click to expand...
Great write up, couldn't agree more here with your reasoning and in fact the first bowl game I played. BOL Kyle have a great bowl season.
 
Always a great thread by a classy guy

BOL on the Bowl season and Thanks for the good thread all yr long

:tiphat:
 
Hate ruining a well capped game with a halftime wager in the game but I think Nevada is the better club. Broadway cannot keep up his completion rate and Nevada left points off the board in RZ twice with the turnover and false start at the inch line. ( I could rant awhile about shot gun teams at the goal line ).

With that said:

Add Nevada 2h -2.5
 
Add

Camelia bowl
South Alabama Team Total over 28

If you don't like team totals or have access the over is probably worth it.
 
I see almost all totals today, VK, so you are no help to me- a sides only guy.

I hope they all come through for you . You deserve some good fortune. Lots of it.
 
No idea how u came up with under on Nev game. I heavy leaned the over at 3 points higher but stayed off partly because of your influence. Thx for saving me a loss. Gl rest of way.
 
tee*dub said:
No idea how u came up with under on Nev game. I heavy leaned the over at 3 points higher but stayed off partly because of your influence. Thx for saving me a loss. Gl rest of way.
Click to expand...


Playing something in every bowl. It was just the least shitty option in my view.
 
Great work man

Was on the Utah under as well...not so sure we deserved the win but Ill take it
 
clowncar said:
Sure we did. First qtr was bologna .. two trick plays. Turnovers early fourth ... Well deserved .. .uh well .. maybe
Click to expand...


Gotcha...I only watched part of the second quarter and havent looked at box yet. I just figured with 28 points in the first 10:00 that we were gonna be toast
 
Schrute said:
Gotcha...I only watched part of the second quarter and havent looked at box yet. I just figured with 28 points in the first 10:00 that we were gonna be toast
Click to expand...


living right. In addition to that lucky finish, the afa total was complete luck
 
clowncar said:
living right. In addition to that lucky finish, the afa total was complete luck
Click to expand...


Well good work man. Keep it up. I had the AFA TT there and my number was 29. I was pissed when they went for 2 while stuck on 29. Thankfully it didnt matter
 
Keep kicking ass my man. Beautiful call on the ULL under this am

Opinions/thoughts on Memphis. I'd like to hear your side if you have time?
 
Sorry I never got to Memphis reasoning, though it basically came down to wanting to back what I thought was the better defense and team at that number when there wasn't compelling reason not to.
 
Didn't get to watch as I was working but it appears it was a really strange game .. 5 memphis turnovers is just wow.
 
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