Time to post my bowl card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Record here

I will make at least one play in each bowl. I think I will go ahead and provide insight into each pick or as much as possible. I haven't done a lot of that this year for the forum. Unlikely to be as good as the past bunch of bowl seasons where I just killed it but I hope to turn a small profit.
FCS Playoffs
2h JMadison -5.5 Loser 0-1
2h JMU/Weber Over 20.5 Winner 1-1
NDSU -19.5 Winner 2-1
NDSU/Wofford over 44 Winner 3-1
Kennesaw State/SHSU Under 66.5 4-1
shsu 23 loser 4-2

Army vs Navy Philadelphias
Army Navy Under 46 Winner 5-2

Celebration Bowl
Ncat/grambling under 50.5 6-2

New Orleans (Saturday, 12/16, 1:00 PM ESPN)
Troy/UNT Under 62.5 6-3
Troy/UNT 2h Under 30.5 6-4
Troy first leg of 6 pt teaser with Utah -0.5/-1.5 (graded in the second leg)

Cure (Saturday, 12/16, 2:30 PM
Western Kentucky/GaState Under 52 7-4

Las Vegas (Saturday, 12/16, 3:30 PM ABC)
Oregon -7 -120 loser 7-5
Oregon/Boise st over 60 8-5

New Mexico (Saturday, 12/16, 4:30 PM ESPN)
Colorado State -5.5 8-6

Cameilia (Saturday, 12/16, 8:00 PM ESPN)
MTSU/Arkansas State over 62 (Large) 9-6

Boca Raton (Tuesday, 12/19, 7:00 PM ESPN)

Akron/FAU Over 61.5 Loser (bad bet) 9-7

Frisco (Wednesday, 12/20, 8:00 PM ESPN)
SMU -5 loser 9-8
1h over 35.5 winner 10-8
2h SMU -6.5 loser 10-9

Gasparilla (Thursday, 12/21, 8:00 PM ESPN)
Temple/Florida International over 55.5 loser 10-10

Bahamas (Friday, 12/22, 12:30 PM ESPN)
ohio -6.5 winner 11-10
ohio/uab over 58.5 loser 11-11

Potato (Friday, 12/22, 4:00 PM ESPN)
Wyoming -1 winner 12-11
Wyoming/Cmich Over 45 winner 13-11

Birmingham (Saturday, 12/23, 12:00 PM ESPN)
USF -2.5 winner 14-11
USF/TTech 2h over 31 winner 15-11

Armed Forces (Saturday, 12/23, 3:30 PM ESPN)
SDSU -6.5 loser 15-12
SDSU/Army over 46 winner 16-12

Dollar General (Saturday, 12/23, 7:00 PM ESPN)
Appalachian State 7.5 winner 17-12
App St/Toledo over 63 loser 17-13
App St/Toledo 1h under 31 winner 18-13

Hawaii (Sunday 12/24, 8:30 PM ESPN)
Houston/Fresno Under 50 loser 18-14

Zaxbys (Tuesday 12/26, 1:30 PM ESPN)
Utah second leg of a 6 pt teaser -1.5 19-14

Quick Lane (Tuesday 12/26, 5:15 PM ESPN)
NIU plus 5 loser 19-15

Cactus (Tuesday 12/26, 9:00 PM ESPN)
Kansas State/UCLA under 64.5 winner 20-15

Independence (Wednesday 12/27, 1:30 PM ESPN)
FSU/USM Over 49 winner 21-15

Pin Stripe (Wednesday 12/27, 5:15 PM ESPN)
BC/Iowa over 46 winner 22-15

Foster Farm (Wednesday 12/27, 8:30 PM FOX)
2h Zona/Purdue under 33.5 winner 23-15

Academy (Wednesday 12/27, 9:00 PM ESPN)

Missouri/Texas over 60.5 loser 23-16
Texas +3 -115 winner 24-16
Missouri/Texas 2H Under 31 winner 25-16

Military (Thursday 12/28, 1:30 PM ESPN)
uva/navy over 55 winner 26-16

Camping World (Thursday 12/28, 5:15 PM ESPN)
Oklahoma State -4 winner 27-16
2H Oklahoma State/VT over 28.5 Winner 28-16

Alamo (Thursday 12/28, 9:00 PM ESPN)
Stanford/Tcu under 49 loser 28-17

Holiday (Thursday 12/28, 9:00 PM FS1)
Washington State -3 (large) Loser 28-18

Belk (Friday 12/29, 1:00 PM ESPN)
TAMU/Wake over 64.5 winner 29-18

Sun (Friday 12/29, 3:00 PM CBS)
ncsu -6 winner 30-18

Music City (Friday 12/29, 4:30 PM ESPN)
uk/nw under 51 winner 31-18

Arizona (Friday 12/29, 5:30 PM CBSSN)
NMSU 4 winner 32-18
NMSU/USU 2h Under 29.5 winner 33-18

Cotton (Friday 12/29, 8:30 PM ESPN)
USC +7 loser 33-19

Taxslayer (Saturday 12/30, 12:00 PM ESPN)
Ville/Miss St under 63.5 winner 34-19

Liberty (Saturday 12/30, 12:30 PM ABC)
Iowa State/Memphis over 65 loser 34-20

Fiesta (Saturday 12/30, 4:00 PM ESPN)
Washington/PennState under 55 loser 34-21

Orange (Saturday 12/30, 8:00 PM ESPN)
Miami 7 -120 loser 34-22
Miami/Wisconsin under 23 2h winner 35-22
Outback (Monday 1/1, 12:00 PM ESPN)
Michigan -7 -116 losers 35-23

Peach (Monday 1/1, 12:30 PM ESPN2)
Auburn -9.5 (Large) 35-24
Auburn 2h -7 loser 35-25

Citrus (Monday 1/1, 1:00 PM ABC)
LSU/ND over 51.5 loser 35-26

Rose (Monday 1/1, 5:00 PM ESPN)
UGA/OU Under 60 loser 35-27

Sugar (Monday 1/1, 8:45 PM ESPN)
Alabama -1.5 (some more at -2.5, 1.5 units) 36-27
Clemson 3.5 36-28

CFP Final (Monday 1/8, 8:00 ESPN)
Play Pending (probably missing the game too, sigh)
 
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If it's Bama -1 I'll be on Clemson. And if Bama opened as the favorite It will probably go up to 3 by game time so I'll wait.

Georgia is a bad draw for Oklahoma. Georgia will probably run for about 280 or so and keep Mayfield on the sidelines for long periods.

But if Georgia is like most SEC teams--Auburn against Oklahoma last year for instance--they will have no idea how to slow down Mayfield when he does get on the field.

Looking forward to both semifinal games, and I'l probably be on Clemson all the way. I like betting the best defense over anything else.

Two early lines caught my eye as being off:

Ohio State -6x USC. Too high I thought at first, then it dawned on me the Pac 12 champ won't be playing in the Rose Bowl this year. For years taking the Pac 12 against the Big 10 team has been easy money. The country boys come to LA and they are suddenly in some of the greatest winter weather on the planet, they are seeing girls so beautiful they didn't know they existed, and the night life is too much for them.

This year though I think that game is in the Cotton Bowl so it may be USC that will bored and anxious to get the game over so they can get back to LA

S Carolina -9x Michigan. That one makes no sense to me. Is that a typo or did they actually make S Carolina a two score favorite?
 
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TahoeLegend said:
S Carolina -9x Michigan. That one makes no sense to me. Is that a typo or did they actually make S Carolina a two score favorite?
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Michigan is the favorite, not South Carolina. If Michigan were getting more than a TD, that would be a "second mortgage" kind of wager!
 
EFC1878 said:
Michigan is the favorite, not South Carolina. If Michigan were getting more than a TD, that would be a "second mortgage" kind of wager!
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A friend of mine made that mistake as well. Yes, if SC was a two score favorite I probably would be on that for all I could bet.
 
I knew that was too good to be true.

Vegas Insider and several off-shore books are still showing it S Carolina -9x.
 
TahoeLegend said:
If it's Bama -1 I'll be on Clemson. And if Bama opened as the favorite It will probably go up to 3 by game time so I'll wait.

Georgia is a bad draw for Oklahoma. Georgia will probably run for about 280 or so and keep Mayfield on the sidelines for long periods.

But if Georgia is like most SEC teams--Auburn against Oklahoma last year for instance--they will have no idea how to slow down Mayfield when he does get on the field.

Looking forward to both semifinal games, and I'l probably be on Clemson all the way. I like betting the best defense over anything else.

Two early lines caught my eye as being off:

Ohio State -6x USC. Too high I thought at first, then it dawned on me the Pac 12 champ won't be playing in the Rose Bowl this year. For years taking the Pac 12 against the Big 10 team has been easy money. The country boys come to LA and they are suddenly in some of the greatest winter weather on the planet, they are seeing girls so beautiful they didn't know they existed, and the night life is too much for them.

This year though I think that game is in the Cotton Bowl so it may be USC that will bored and anxious to get the game over so they can get back to LA

S Carolina -9x Michigan. That one makes no sense to me. Is that a typo or did they actually make S Carolina a two score favorite?
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I absolutely agree with you on Oklahoma's draw. Jorga is a terrible draw for Oklahoma. I mean if you are old school, we have always been taught .....
Defense wins Championships. Run the ball and play defense. Jorga does that well. I look to be on Jorga.
 
I have watched a lot of Kirby Smart defenses over the last decade. I'm not sure how involved he is in the UGA defense, but I assume he has a pretty big role there. If it anything like the defenses he had at Alabama, it will struggle against the OU offense. Maybe not give up 600 yards and 40 points, but OU/Mayfield will convert a maddening # of 3rd and mediums. It seems obvious that on offense, UGA will try to grind out 5-7 minute drives with the running game.

I agree with detroit187, this feels like the most balanced playoff since it's inception. Should be great watching
 
First off, hope you hammer bowl season per usual. I expect that.

Now...

Regional sport ftw, outside of us losers and LV, who's watching this garbage? It's utter trash, it would be balanced regardless of who's in it. But seriously, who north of the mason Dixon line or west of the Mississippi outside of Oklahoma will watch this other than gamblers? Turning into hockey. And not a great watch at all. Enjoy!

Can't even discuss anything about this playoff with normal people.
 
You ever wonder why the rematch so many teams from prior bowls? Not just this year, but every year there are a couple. This year it is UCLA-Kansas State, Michigan-South Carolina, Notre Dame-LSU. Those were all just the last handful of years ago.
 
s--k said:
You ever wonder why the rematch so many teams from prior bowls? Not just this year, but every year there are a couple. This year it is UCLA-Kansas State, Michigan-South Carolina, Notre Dame-LSU. Those were all just the last handful of years ago.
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I wondered the same.....I like playing ND from an LSU perspective, but ya....just happened feels like
 
twinkie13 said:
I wondered the same.....I like playing ND from an LSU perspective, but ya....just happened feels like
Click to expand...

Yes. 2014. It is too long ago though for any motivational angles to be in play, but I always like taking the loser in a regular season to bowl rematch or prior year-to-prior year bowl rematch. Two that comes to mind involving Nebraska where they were in the 2009 Holiday Bowl the year prior, had already beaten Washington in the 2010 regular season then Huskers got send to Holiday once again and played Washington and UW crushed them (as a 14 pt dog!). Also with Nebraska the back-to-back Georgia Citrus/Gator games from 2012-2013, Neb won the second as an 8.5 dog). Those are two very memorable ones off the top of my head.
 
s--k said:
You ever wonder why the rematch so many teams from prior bowls? Not just this year, but every year there are a couple. This year it is UCLA-Kansas State, Michigan-South Carolina, Notre Dame-LSU. Those were all just the last handful of years ago.
Click to expand...

Just guessing, but I assume the tie ins for the conferences play a role. If a bowl is always taking Big 12 #4 vs SEC #6 or whatever, chances are decent that the same teams will fall into those spots regularly.
 
FSU's prep for Northern Illinois wasn't hurt by the comments that Jordan Lynch made the week of the game:

Lynch said he believed the Seminoles hadn’t seen an offense quite like his. He added that he and his teammates wanted FSU’s defenders “on their knees” by the fourth quarter of the game. At that point, with them on the ground, the Huskies were going to “just keep pounding away,” he added.
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vk said:
Record here

I will make at least one play in each bowl. I think I will go ahead and provide insight into each pick or as much as possible. I haven't done a lot of that this year for the forum. Unlikely to be as good as the past bunch of bowl seasons where I just killed it but I hope to turn a small profit.

Semifinal
Alabama -1.5
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Input on each Bowl game would be HUGE. We've seemed to have lost some good CFB cappers this past year. Thanks for doing this. GL
 
Best thing about Blount is one is playing in the NFL right now while the other is begging for you to buy life insurance
 
KJ said:
Best thing about Blount is one is playing in the NFL right now while the other is begging for you to buy life insurance
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Blount is easily one of my favorite NFL players. Dude walks off the Steelers because he is pissed he isn't getting carries. Goes back to the Pats for a ring.
 
Look at all this SC love from vk! God that Clowney hit is so good. Pretty much solidified his pick. I am glad to see Clowney balling in the NFL, the people speculating he was a bust can gtfo.

Dylan Thompson was also sneaky one of my favorite QBs at SC. Obviously everyone loved Connor Shaw because he was a badass but Dylan came in right after Connor left and had a MUCH worse defense and was putting up record numbers with the O.
 
Adds

Army/Navy under 46
UNT/Troy under 62.5
gast/wky under 52
Colorado State -5.5
MTSU/Arkansas State over 62 (large)
Akron/FAU over 61.5
South Florida -2.5
Houston/Fresnost under 50
Teaser 6 pt Troy -0.5/Utah -1.5
Missouri/Texas over 60.5
Washington State -3
USC 7
Iowa St/Memphis over 65
 
I don't get the mtsu Arky st total at all. Definitely will be all over the over if that number is near there after suspension/injury season shakes out.
 
Interested in reading your SC write-up.

I think SC gets knocked around on both sides of the line (similar to their last matchup against a midwestern power) and will find it difficult to establish their run game. OSU held Barkley and Taylor (wisky's OL is much better than SC's) to 2 ypc and don't see a much better outcome for Jones and a comparatively weaker OL. SC receivers were able to embarrass Stanford's corners in one on one battles after the catch but hard to see a repeat of that against a big, athletic OSU secondary with a potential first rounder in Denzel Ward.

Not a big fan of Barrett but I think he'll be able to run the zone read quite well vs SC and should gain some nice yardage up the middle alongside the rb's on the edge. OSU should run it well enough to not have to rely on the pass which is their glaring weakness.

I think SC will have to capitalize on a lot of OSU turnovers and sloppiness in order to stay within the number. With that said OSU has been sloppy and turnover prone in most games so that isn't such a bad angle to play. But Darnold is a turnover machine in his own right.

Not a big fan of trends but I think this one has some relevance. SC has faced a big 10 opponent in the bowls the last 3 seasons and has gone 0-3 ATS. SC was a strong favorite in each game with a very large percentage of the betting public backing them. All 3 big 10 teams were really able to exert their will in the run game.
 
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\
AliShaheed said:
Interested in reading your SC write-up.

I think SC gets knocked around on both sides of the line (similar to their last matchup against a midwestern power) and will find it difficult to establish their run game. OSU held Barkley and Taylor (wisky's OL is much better than SC's) to 2 ypc and don't see a much better outcome for Jones and a comparatively weaker OL. SC receivers were able to embarrass Stanford's corners in one on one battles after the catch but hard to see a repeat of that against a big, athletic OSU secondary with a potential first rounder in Denzel Ward.

Not a big fan of Barrett but I think he'll be able to run the zone read quite well vs SC and should gain some nice yardage up the middle alongside the rb's on the edge. OSU should run it well enough to not have to rely on the pass which is their glaring weakness.

I think SC will have to capitalize on a lot of OSU turnovers and sloppiness in order to stay within the number. With that said OSU has been sloppy and turnover prone in most games so that isn't such a bad angle to play. But Darnold is a turnover machine in his own right.

Not a big fan of trends but I think this one has some relevance. SC has faced a big 10 opponent in the bowls the last 3 seasons and has gone 0-3 ATS. SC was a strong favorite in each game with a very large percentage of the betting public backing them. All 3 big 10 teams were really able to exert their will in the run game.
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I posted these at UOW, so thought I would put in here too. As you can see, the USC game is the one where I basically just chased a PR number. I haven't fully capped it. So I am not married to it just yet. I suppose there is a decent chance a certain QB not named JT protects his nfl stock and doesn't play, or doesn't risk running as much if he does, which could be bad.

Navy -1/42/Under 46 (weather)
Troy -7.5/55.5/Under 62.5 (troy teaser as well)
Wky -5/47/Under 52/Under 52 (small)
Oregon -7/61/nothing yet (revisiting)
CSU -7.5/61/CSU -5.5
Arkansas St -4/72/Over 62 large
fau -20/66/over 61.5
smu -7/73/Nothing yet (revisiting)
usf -7/67/usf -2.5 (large)
Hou -3/45/Under 50
Utah -9/58/Utah 6 pt teaser
Missouri -1/67/Over 60.5
Washington State -6/47/WSU -3
0/0/usc 7 (not fully capped-had to play pr)
Memphis -3/71/Over 65
auburn -20/68/Auburn -9.5
bama -4/50/Bama -2.5
 
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