time to post my 2016-2017 bowl season so far

THoughts on HOuston?

I like a senior QB going out after the team not quite meeting expectations.
It's obvious they can play when they want to. I'm sorry, it seems obvious to me, I should say.
 
When motivated and prepared it appears they can play with anybody and when unmotivated and unprepared they can lose to a team they shouldn't. I think both defensive lines have their way with the opposing offensive line. The big edge on the field is Ward vs Chapman at the QB position for sure. But Pumphrey is a local from here so I would expect him to be motivated too. Hoping for a slower pace from Houston in this game compared to most.
 
Looks like weather will play a big roll in the New Mexico/UTSA game.

Very strong winds. Could be the strongest of any college game this year.
 
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2h under 24
2h wyoming 3.5

Some concern that Allen will throw the ball too hard in the rain. He needs to take a little off for his untalented wide receivers to be able to make a play on the ball.

BYU gifted a TD, otherwise fairly evenly played game so far ... wyoming with the impetus to score though.
 
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Tennessee -4

Nebraska too banged up for this game, I think. I worry Nebraska will be better prepared and after the ease with which Vols dispatched bigten opponent last year, I fear they are not as motivated as they might otherwise be. Incredibly disappointing season for this team. No Armstrong & no Westerkamp and there were some losses in the defensive backfield as well (suspensions). Just too much to ask of Corn to get it done in this one.
 
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North Carolina 3 (small)

There is going to be a lot of talk about McCaffery missing the game and there is going to be a lot of talk about what the Stanford rushing game can do to the North Carolina rush defense. I think Stanford will be galvanized to prove they are a lot more than just McCaffery but I don't think that the North Carolina rush defense is quite as bad as most think it is and not really the 113th best rush defense as the straight numbers would imply. I think the first few games were bad rush defense efforts which reinforced my belief and many others that the rush defense would be the achilles heal of this team. I think we were all correct, I just don't think it is as bad as we might have thought. The reason I say that is because the heels played a pretty tough group of rush offenses

Georgia 53rd
Illinois 105th
James Madison 4th most rush yards in FCS, Championship game incoming (check their suspensions)
Pitt 26th
Florida State 38th (best offensive NFL talent player,in my opinion, at RB for FSU)
VT 57th
Miami florida 86th
Virginia 121
georgia tech 10th
duke 92nd
citadel most rush yards per game in FCS - option
ncst 87th

I am not saying that UNC has a good run defense... far from it ... I am just saying that they have played a schedule that is tough on run defense, particularly when you are one of the 20 or so fastest paced teams. So between their offensive pace and the style of the teams they have faced, UNC defended 616 rushing plays this year ... the most of any team in college football.

I don't think the current Stanford offensive line is on par with past years and I don't think their 34th ranked rushing offense (pac12 rush defenses) is necessarily anything UNC should fear comparatively to their schedule this year.

I think it will be a good game and will take the points.

Please note I am not saying Stanford cannot run on UNC ...I am giving perspective on why I think there is some line value based on perception that Stanford is still an elite rushing attack and based on people thinking a bad UNC rush defense is actually an absolutely horrible rush defense ... I think both are overblown.
 
I had a shitty baseball year too. 2016 not my worst $ year in sports but it will be by far the worst capped.
 
Kyle Merry Xmas and BOL the rest of bowl season, things have to change for the better.
 
At 14-0 I probably would've bet my entire life that MTSU would cover that game. Or at least win the game outright.

Been a rough season for me as well. Hoping to turn things around over the next week or so. Like Wisebettor said there are plenty of opportunities left.
 
AliShaheed said:
At 14-0 I probably would've bet my entire life that MTSU would cover that game. Or at least win the game outright.

Been a rough season for me as well. Hoping to turn things around over the next week or so. Like Wisebettor said there are plenty of opportunities left.
Click to expand...

I walk in and turn the game on, 8 min left in 1st qu and 14-0
I have no idea how the game changed so fast against middle Tennessee
 
MTSU defense was poor. Thought Stockstill was rushing throws too ... maybe afraid with his injury? dunno. But the timing was way off and he was inaccurate as wisebettor said. I also think there might have been some missed motivational angles. Hawaii is trying to build toward something right now and those extra practices seemed to help them more than MTSU trip to Hawaii helped them. Some history of Hawaii not performing so great in the Hawaii bowl lately (I think or thought for some reason so probably true) though so shrug.

In any event .. for the parts of the game I saw, it didn't look fluky (though there were some bad turnovers for MTSU 1h) but more like Hawaii was better prepared and cared more.

Was sort of risky anyway with them likely going wildcat if Stockstill reinjured.

I am not just losing right now .. I am not close on most of these games.
 
dudleysdad said:
I walk in and turn the game on, 8 min left in 1st qu and 14-0
I have no idea how the game changed so fast against middle Tennessee
Click to expand...
the next 4 drives were fumble at mtsu 18 drive for touchdown, INT MTSU 38 drive for touchdown, 3 and out, stockstill pick 6 for 68 yards.
 
clowncar said:
MTSU defense was poor. Thought Stockstill was rushing throws too ... maybe afraid with his injury? dunno. But the timing was way off and he was inaccurate as wisebettor said. I also think there might have been some missed motivational angles. Hawaii is trying to build toward something right now and those extra practices seemed to help them more than MTSU trip to Hawaii helped them. Some history of Hawaii not performing so great in the Hawaii bowl lately (I think or thought for some reason so probably true) though so shrug.

In any event .. for the parts of the game I saw, it didn't look fluky (though there were some bad turnovers for MTSU 1h) but more like Hawaii was better prepared and cared more.

Was sort of risky anyway with them likely going wildcat if Stockstill reinjured.

I am not just losing right now .. I am not close on most of these games.
Click to expand...
I did not factor in Hawaii motivation much either but watching the Hawaii coaching staff they were taking this very seriously. It really rung home for me when Hawaii was up 52-35 and called two timeouts to get the play right with :38 on the clock. After having a pretty good season I have been on the wrong side of a number of these games as well. It starts to cloud your vision some so maybe take a day or two off and come back fresh? Usually works pretty good for me, did that this season after about week 8 when i got swept one week. Chin up brother I know a smart man like you can adapt.
 
Absolutely every time Hawaii had a chance for a big play they delivered. Made every throw and the receivers made every grab. I haven't seen that team play out of their minds like that in I don't know how many years.

I knew it was over when they converted the fake punt. That kid (the backup qb?) threw an absolute frozen rope to the WR for a first down despite having a defender diving at his feet. I would say that the starting qb for 3 out of the 4 teams in the playoffs this year would've botched that same throw at least 80% of the time, lol.
 
I didn't stay away from these shit bowl games long enough...god what a slate of putrid games to watch today. MD offensive line was just pitifully manhandled today. Miss State just didn't show up at all, thought they could just win and obviously not in the game mentally. Wish they had lost outright, they really deserved too. NCST looks good, never had time to really handicap that game today with family in town. I am going to try and work on the games for tomorrow, but god these minor bowl matchups are just so fucking tedious...
 
Timh said:
I didn't stay away from these shit bowl games long enough...god what a slate of putrid games to watch today. MD offensive line was just pitifully manhandled today. Miss State just didn't show up at all, thought they could just win and obviously not in the game mentally. Wish they had lost outright, they really deserved too. NCST looks good, never had time to really handicap that game today with family in town. I am going to try and work on the games for tomorrow, but god these minor bowl matchups are just so fucking tedious...
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I can only speak for myself ... I don't mind crappy games if I cap them right. I am not capping well. Period. I admit that I go back and recap the games and haven't really found my error, which is even scarier on some levels. I am just not very good at this right now.... for whatever reason. I don't want to mix up my growing hatred of what the game is becoming to my growing hatred for how bad I am capping. Worried I will turn it into an excuse .. excuses are worthless.

So for me personally .. is this short term fluctuation of a year or is it something else? My win percentage has been dropping for years (some by design with increased number of plays at assumed EV) and now I am gonna have a pretty significant season loss. I will either have to not do this next year (what I am leaning towards) or go back to just betting Sunday sides at open and totals whenever I get them or just lay off those (out of town maybe). I am not doing the business right ... that has to be part of it. I mean that isn't the part that has me watching each game go the opposite of how I would think .. but there is something to doing it the right way and being locked in... ahead of the game. Just rambling ...but I am so frustrated Timh that I could kick a puppy (again).
 
Obviously 40 Bowl games means 80 teams. We have teams playing that should not be part of postseason. Problem comes when the better team isn't motivated and Vegas puts up a big number. It happened today with Miss State. They never showed up and still won luckily. Better games ahead boys
 
clowncar said:
I can only speak for myself ... I don't mind crappy games if I cap them right. I am not capping well. Period. I admit that I go back and recap the games and haven't really found my error, which is even scarier on some levels. I am just not very good at this right now.... for whatever reason. I don't want to mix up my growing hatred of what the game is becoming to my growing hatred for how bad I am capping. Worried I will turn it into an excuse .. excuses are worthless.

So for me personally .. is this short term fluctuation of a year or is it something else? My win percentage has been dropping for years (some by design with increased number of plays at assumed EV) and now I am gonna have a pretty significant season loss. I will either have to not do this next year (what I am leaning towards) or go back to just betting Sunday sides at open and totals whenever I get them or just lay off those (out of town maybe). I am not doing the business right ... that has to be part of it. I mean that isn't the part that has me watching each game go the opposite of how I would think .. but there is something to doing it the right way and being locked in... ahead of the game. Just rambling ...but I am so frustrated Timh that I could kick a puppy (again).
Click to expand...
Yes, I probably came across wrong in my post which was somewhat influenced by watching MD get man handled in the trenches all day (disgust lol...). I think what I really meant to say is I think recently you have gotten some really tough beats on games which I don't think you necessarily handicapped poorly (i.e. WKY under, Ohio under come to mind). I understand what you are saying though about the process and questioning yourself there and then combining that with your growing disenchantment about the style of the game leads to a lot of frustration. I think the bowl slate is always difficult to bet with a lot of other factors coming into play (i.e. coaching changes, motivation, disciplinary issues that come up with the layoff between games, players now passing to get ready for the next level etc..). For me it is just hard to try and play a lot of games, and I think it's better sometimes to just pass on them if you can't find a significant edge. So many of these recent games have been so close to the number (WKY total, Ohio total, ODU etc...) I look at Miss St. and felt like if they cared they should have won by 30 in that game. Their offense had significantly improved at the end of the season and they were playing another MAC team and the MAC had fared so poorly in these bowl games but they just didn't show up. That becomes very frustrating and I feel like why did I bother. I'm curious why did you decide to pass on playing openers this year? Sometimes that can be a factor with your available outs etc, but it seems to me that would still be very advantageous to you overall given all the prep you put in. I know it is tough to do when you are working your regular gig though, especially if it involves travel. Maybe part of the process refinement could be to going back to playing less games and focus on the highest confidence. I know how much you appreciate the game though, even with stylistic changes that are frustrating. I hope that you keep capping and can work through the issues and get back to enjoying it more.
 
Timh said:
Yes, I probably came across wrong in my post which was somewhat influenced by watching MD get man handled in the trenches all day (disgust lol...). I think what I really meant to say is I think recently you have gotten some really tough beats on games which I don't think you necessarily handicapped poorly (i.e. WKY under, Ohio under come to mind). I understand what you are saying though about the process and questioning yourself there and then combining that with your growing disenchantment about the style of the game leads to a lot of frustration. I think the bowl slate is always difficult to bet with a lot of other factors coming into play (i.e. coaching changes, motivation, disciplinary issues that come up with the layoff between games, players now passing to get ready for the next level etc..). For me it is just hard to try and play a lot of games, and I think it's better sometimes to just pass on them if you can't find a significant edge. So many of these recent games have been so close to the number (WKY total, Ohio total, ODU etc...) I look at Miss St. and felt like if they cared they should have won by 30 in that game. Their offense had significantly improved at the end of the season and they were playing another MAC team and the MAC had fared so poorly in these bowl games but they just didn't show up. That becomes very frustrating and I feel like why did I bother. I'm curious why did you decide to pass on playing openers this year? Sometimes that can be a factor with your available outs etc, but it seems to me that would still be very advantageous to you overall given all the prep you put in. I know it is tough to do when you are working your regular gig though, especially if it involves travel. Maybe part of the process refinement could be to going back to playing less games and focus on the highest confidence. I know how much you appreciate the game though, even with stylistic changes that are frustrating. I hope that you keep capping and can work through the issues and get back to enjoying it more.
Click to expand...

I closed all my offshores. The irony of why is that I wanted to make an example of following the law, even though I disagree with the law. I want to live a legal life. But I had several friends make bets for me this year anyway, including almost any midweek bet I made this year. So I didn't even completely fulfill that goal. So my version of betting openers would have been hitting Wynn on Sundays. The problem was that my responsibilities at work increased dramatically over the summer and fall this past year. I struggled to be the week ahead that I normally am. I didn't make it to wynn but once I think. So my whole process was different and I coupled it with pushing every perceived edge. Less time capping, worst numbers in my betting career, and more games is probably a formula for worse results even if I was capping well.

I love college football. It is going to be hard to hang it up. I have a $5 bet with D$ on whether I will or not. Deep down I feel I know I should win that bet but I also know he is the favorite. I identify on some level as being a good college football capper ... if I lose that, I do lose a piece of myself. This season is just a huge hit to the ego. It's like punishment for me saying I don't care if I lose every football bet so long as Hillary loses and GOD said "deal".
 
clowncar said:
I closed all my offshores. The irony of why is that I wanted to make an example of following the law, even though I disagree with the law. I want to live a legal life. But I had several friends make bets for me this year anyway, including almost any midweek bet I made this year. So I didn't even completely fulfill that goal. So my version of betting openers would have been hitting Wynn on Sundays. The problem was that my responsibilities at work increased dramatically over the summer and fall this past year. I struggled to be the week ahead that I normally am. I didn't make it to wynn but once I think. So my whole process was different and I coupled it with pushing every perceived edge. Less time capping, worst numbers in my betting career, and more games is probably a formula for worse results even if I was capping well.

I love college football. It is going to be hard to hang it up. I have a $5 bet with D$ on whether I will or not. Deep down I feel I know I should win that bet but I also know he is the favorite. I identify on some level as being a good college football capper ... if I lose that, I do lose a piece of myself. This season is just a huge hit to the ego. It's like punishment for me saying I don't care if I lose every football bet so long as Hillary loses and GOD said "deal".
Click to expand...


Your worst runs will be followed by your best runs. You are a good enough capper to where it is your calling. If you quit now, you will miss out on your future positive run.

Besides, quitting is for losers.
 
Maybe .. maybe keep losing Dollaz. Old man .. game passing me by.

ADD

Wake/Temple 1h under 20.5
Wake/Temple under 41.5
 
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